re: the Porter comments
Great discussion so far!
I would argue that YYZ-Florida on Porter does not need any connecting traffic if they were to choose this as a launch route this winter. There is enough O&D from the GTA to fill these planes (my opinion). Will they add a YUL/YOW/YHZ-YYZ E2 to help fill these routes... perhaps. Nothing is stopping them from flying the Q400 into Pearson either.
There is no way they are going to sell connections YTZ-YYZ. No one is going to want to do that, and I bet many people won't even realize they are booking such a connection in the first place.
I am not sure a YOW-Florida would really work in the winter unless it was 2/3 weekly. Again, a lot of the Maritime airports have direct Florida and other sun destination flights throughout the winter months.
I think for YOW to work as a mini-hub, Porter will look to draw traffic from the Maritimes to Western Canada (YYC, YVR) or Western USA (LAS, LAX, SFO as examples). I think many of these routes would be something they would look to launch in Spring 2023 though as intra-Canada demand reduces during the winter months.
I also think they will sell YTZ-YOW-Western North American flights if these routes exist and compete with themselves on any potential YYZ-West flights. Customers can choose what they intend to do.
Two wildcards in my opinion are: YUL and US connecting traffic.
YUL-Florida is a very strong market in the winter and I could see Porter jumping into this as well. A single E2 can fly YUL-MIA-YOW-MIA-YUL in a single day for example.
If Porter chooses to base E2s at YOW or YUL, I wonder if they are interested in capturing any Northeastern US traffic to Western Canada. Examples, BOS-YOW-YYC, EWR-YUL-YVR. They would likely have to choose one airport (YOW or YUL) to do this at, but it could be something interesting for them to consider. It also fills a void out of YOW to places like BOS, and to an extent EWR and IAD (as AC is not currently flying the former and UA is 1x day on the latter). I think this would also be something that could be launched in Summer 2023.
I am not sure on how rapidly their deliveries will be. If they are able to have 10 E2s by Q2 2023, that should lead to some routes out of YOW.
Don't forget YYZ is the centre of the universe so the initial routes have to start there