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  #601  
Old Posted May 19, 2026, 8:01 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by RomanR27 View Post
I am surprised that TB was (barely) positive, and that international was only barely positive.

For TB, UA had IAD up to 4x daily so there is 10x daily frequencies there across their network (not sure if that compares to 8x or 9x last April). PD would have had more capacity with MIA going until mid-April and PHX until the end of the month - though LAS ran in April 2025 as well. Though TPA and RSW both ended early in April. AC also abandoned all TB flying by April 4th whereas in April 2025, they ran FLL and MCO until the end of the month. WS also did not run RSW this year.

On the international front, I guess CDG and LHR were flat year-over-year (CDG might have even been slightly down??), and PD's sun additions would be counteracted by AC's early wrap up (CUN/PUJ also ran until the end of April last year, TQO might have hung on until mid-April as well).

Speaking of UA, the first mainline 319 flight from ORD arrives Thursday evening with the first outbound flight being Friday morning. It now has been extended to run through the rest of the summer schedule, switching back to all regional airline ops on 25OCT.

AC has also loaded PUJ/CUN to finish for the season on 16APR/17APR, respectively, so a 2-week longer season than this past winter. MBJ and NAS are still set to end the first weekend in April.
How much winter 2024-25 Cuba flying would have hung around until April 2025? That probably played a role with zero Cuba in April 2026. For March 2026 ~10 pages back it was estimated Cuba would've knocked off 5-8,000 international pax. Might've equated to 1-3,000 April pax.

AF would have probably been down slightly as there were two fewer Monday roundtrips in April 2026 vs 2025 partially offset by a few 77Ws in 2026.

Interesting stat for transborder given April 2025 was also slightly to the positive.
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  #602  
Old Posted May 19, 2026, 10:03 PM
solo748 solo748 is offline
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
If daytime flights are at a premium why don’t airlines charge more for these? Why does Air Canada use its one daytime slot for its lowest demand route (Halifax/Ottawa) with its smallest plane that can cross the Atlantic?
Exactly
Why are AM slots at LHR 3-5X the cost of evening ones bestowed upon YHZ/YOW?
If daytime flights were premium, why do all of the world's airlines park their $200M jets all day in the major airports of South America in order to fly overnight? The premiums of overnight flights make up for inefficient use of very expensive machines.

Front-cabin fares from HVC is where the bread gets buttered for airlines. Just look at DL and UA, among others, blowing out their J cabins and adding new levels of upmarket seating

If you think AC brought daytime LHR flights to Ottawa because Gus in 34E will pay an extra $120 to arrive and sleep in a hotel, I don't know what to say

AC's gauge, frequency and timing of YOWLHR is a real shot at YOW. They're basically screaming there's little to no recurring, expected viable J/PY demand. Let's hope they came to that decision because AF skimmed most of the top market cream. The fact they haven't announced YOW-> FRA/MUC says there's obviously not enough front-cabin demand or they're not confident they can steal sustainable marketshare from AF



All my opinion, of course
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  #603  
Old Posted May 19, 2026, 10:30 PM
RomanR27 RomanR27 is online now
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Porter has reduced YDF to finish flying on Labour Day rather than until the end of September. It's also reduced to 4x weekly until that point, save for the first couple weeks of ops in June when it's 5x as it was originally scheduled. YYT will also reduce to daily from the planned 11x weekly for the entire summer now, with the YDF timing adjusted similar to July to be optimized for O/D rather than connections with the RON in YDF (essentially replacing the second YYT flight).
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  #604  
Old Posted May 19, 2026, 10:35 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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April pax stats breakdown:

Sector / Apr-25 / Apr-26 / % Change
Dom: 275,402 / 292,442 / +6.2% - 2019 at 321,291 is the April record - likely most of that difference is YTO traffic.
TB: 67,292 / 67,715 / +0.6% - 2013 at 71,958 is still the April record
Int'l: 42,595 / 42,896 / +0.7% - 2015 at 45,155 is still the April record
TTL: 385,289 / 403,053 / +4.6% - about 18k pax below April 2019

Sector / YTD 2025 / YTD 2026 / % Change
Dom: 1,021,848 / 1,082,479 / +5.9%
TB: 309,895 / 293,383 / -5.3%
Int'l: 233,143 / 288,110 / +23.6%
TTL: 1,564,886 / 1,663,972 / +6.3%

April % of traffic recovered vs 2019 / YTD vs 2019
Sector / April / YTD % recovered
Dom: 91.0% / 91.1%
TB: 99.4% / 103.8%
Int'l: 133.2% / 130.0%
TTL: 95.6% / 98.3%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2024
Dom: 3,714,915 / +8.3%
TB: 709,799 / -4.3%
Int'l: 540,608 / +24.6%
TTL: 4,965,322 / +7.8% - this is trending to be over 5 million for the first time since March 2020 in June

May should see double digit international growth resuming with TS operating a few sun flights in early May & LGW starting mid-month, PD continuing CUN twice weekly and with AF operating a 77W majority month for the first time.

Even at a very modest 70% LF for the additional capacity vs May 2025, that'd be over 5,500 extra pax, which would take May's international pax count to around 27,500, surpassing 2010's May record of 24,159.
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  #605  
Old Posted May 19, 2026, 11:00 PM
YOWetal YOWetal is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by solo748 View Post
Exactly

AC's gauge, frequency and timing of YOWLHR is a real shot at YOW. They're basically screaming there's little to no recurring, expected viable J/PY demand. Let's hope they came to that decision because AF skimmed most of the top market cream. The fact they haven't announced YOW-> FRA/MUC says there's obviously not enough front-cabin demand or they're not confident they can steal sustainable marketshare from AF

All my opinion, of course
It seems pretty obvious PS flys business only with connection so if Geneva, Brussels, and the many more obscure destintions that quilfy arent connecting the flight won't be full in J. Frankfurt would be but I guess codeshare rules make that profitble enough. So here we are. There will be a lot of leisure demand with direct flights I bet.
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  #606  
Old Posted May 20, 2026, 1:56 AM
zzptichka zzptichka is offline
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Originally Posted by fanofYOW View Post
According to page 9 of the 2025 review, I find it a bit interesting that the OAA is predicting a 6.1m pax volume by 2030 (19.6% increase) over ~4 years. However, they then assume only a flat 2% increase only year-over-year after 2030. Not sure if it's because it's easier for forecast the upcoming few years, or if they know the terminal will be prepped for more connecting pax, or if they are expecting a large network increase in the coming years (then it's up in the air post 2030). Hoping it's the latter.

https://yow-website.files.svdcdn.com/pro..._Annual_Report_2025_EN.pdf?dm=1777990713
OAA is not very good at projections. They predicted 5M+ in 2024 when most people here could see it was a fantasy.
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  #607  
Old Posted May 20, 2026, 7:41 AM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by solo748 View Post
I was curious how people assumed YOWSJO was deemed not viable due to limitations of the aircraft vs limitations of the market
You didn't answer my question.

Oh and btw, on at least 1 occasion, both YOWLIR and YYZLIR had to divert to Florida for fuel due to a last minute routing change mid-flight. This, while other carriers such as AC, WS and TS flew from Canada to LIR non stop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by solo748 View Post
AC's gauge, frequency and timing of YOWLHR is a real shot at YOW. They're basically screaming there's little to no recurring, expected viable J/PY demand. Let's hope they came to that decision because AF skimmed most of the top market cream. The fact they haven't announced YOW-> FRA/MUC says there's obviously not enough front-cabin demand or they're not confident they can steal sustainable marketshare from AF



All my opinion, of course
If AC thought there was no viable J/PY demand on YOW-LHR, they wouldn't have brought it back. Nor would they dedicate a brand new XLR with brand new lie-flat seats to the market in the dead of winter. So your opinion is false. At the end of the day, utilizing the XLR on YOW-LHR in winter makes perfect sense. What time the plane lands in LHR is irrelevant. I think the main reason why they are utilizing the daytime flights to LHR from YOW/YHZ is because those flights cater mostly to an O&D crowd, so it doesn't matter at what time they land at LHR.

I think AC feels that utilizing the red-eyes to LHR from it's 3 main hubs + YYC is a better strategy, considering those cities probably have more connecting traffic going beyond LHR. So considering AC - and other majors - can no longer extract a premium from daytrippers across the Atlantic, they are using those slots as best they can, and for AC, that means YOW/YHZ-LHR.

I don't think it's a slap in the face of YOW. It would be a slap in the face of YOW if AC removes YOW-LHR entirely, or kept it summer seasonal. They're not doing that.

Last edited by thenoflyzone; May 20, 2026 at 8:00 AM.
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  #608  
Old Posted May 20, 2026, 12:55 PM
RomanR27 RomanR27 is online now
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Originally loaded as only 2x weekly, PD's PVR has increased to up to 5x weekly at peak, off peak it is running 3x weekly from November until mid-December, and then 4x weekly from the post-holiday to mid-February period.

Thus far, PD has chased WS from RSW, AC from TPA (we'll see if that returns since they seem to be using a smaller gauge on their sun routes this year), and now WS/Sunwing from PVR.

Today's AC889 is full in Y and PY, and is 27/31 in J. AC888 is 26/31 J and 19/24 in PY. Tomorrow's AC889 is 24/30 J and also full in Y/PY.
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  #609  
Old Posted May 20, 2026, 2:25 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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  #610  
Old Posted May 20, 2026, 2:25 PM
solo748 solo748 is offline
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
Oh and btw, on at least 1 occasion, both YOWLIR and YYZLIR had to divert to Florida for fuel due to a last minute routing change mid-flight. This, while other carriers such as AC, WS and TS flew from Canada to LIR non stop
Last week you were sure YOWPVR was weight restricted …OR nowhere near capacity …. OR landing near minimums. Far cry from an unanticipated, 1-off re-routing which necessitated a fuel stop (because the jet was not loaded to account for the detour)
Quote:
Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
I think the main reason why they are utilizing the daytime flights to LHR from YOW/YHZ is because those flights cater mostly to an O&D crowd
If daytime NA >> EU flights cater to O/D, How many of the 2,500 DAILY eastbound seats on Canada/Europe’s largest O/D market (MTL<>Paris) are during the day?
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  #611  
Old Posted May 20, 2026, 3:04 PM
fanofYOW fanofYOW is offline
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https://www.travelpress.com/air-transat-launches-new-ottawa-london-gatwick-flights/

“And Ponce continued: “Combined with the connections offered by our partner Porter Airlines from multiple cities across Canada and the United States, this route positions Ottawa as a genuine gateway to Europe. It perfectly reflects the type of growth we’re focused on – targeted, well-connected routes that strengthen our position in the transatlantic market“

I hope my read-between-the-lines skills are good. Sounds like more is coming!
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  #612  
Old Posted May 20, 2026, 3:22 PM
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YOWflier YOWflier is offline
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This would be interesting but is Porter even feeding the Transat flight that we have at present?

Edit: just checked and they are indeed in at least a few cases I checked.
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Last edited by YOWflier; May 20, 2026 at 3:36 PM.
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  #613  
Old Posted May 20, 2026, 3:39 PM
RomanR27 RomanR27 is online now
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Originally Posted by YOWflier View Post
This would be interesting but is Porter even feeding the Transat flight that we have at present?
Eastbound: 1h42 minute layover from YYC, 2h from YEG, 4h28 from YWG
Westbound: 1h20 to YYC, 6h35 to YEG and 3h30 to YWG

These also appear only bookable through TS, not through PD. Disappointing that YYC is the best-timed connections given they have direct service from AC and WS. YWG and YEG would be worth chasing connecting pax due to the lack of direct service.

It appears YQG and YSB would also be well-timed for connections, but it is not actually bookable, despite the fact the non-stops are bookable on TS with their own code.
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  #614  
Old Posted May 20, 2026, 6:14 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by solo748 View Post
Last week you were sure YOWPVR was weight restricted …
That's not what I said. You're putting words in my mouth. I said I wouldn't be surprised IF they were weight restricted. That's two very different things.

You're lucky those 200NM winds were only 75 mins. Another hour or so of that kind of winds, (which is normal in winter btw), and your E295s would have been weight restricted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by solo748 View Post
OR nowhere near capacity ….
lol. You basically confirmed they weren't at or near capacity.

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Originally Posted by solo748 View Post
1-off re-routing which necessitated a fuel stop
That I know of. Who's to say there weren't more? I didn't track these flights on a daily basis. I just happened to notice it on one particular day.

Bottom line is, operating 2,100nm routes westbound (in the case of PVR) in winter on a 2,600nm frame is cutting it close, You clearly work for PD, and seem to take it personal that these aircraft weren't meant to fly these routes.

AC's old A320s had a similar range (~2,500nm) when flying YUL-LAX/SFO during the winters years ago. They were often weight restricted, or had to divert for fuel on days with a 200nm jetstream. This is a fact. Heck, even newer A320ceo's (B6, UA, etc), which have a 3,000nm range, have had to divert on transcontinental runs from the east coast to LAX/SFO.

So our point about the E295 on near similar distances is just as valid.

Quote:
Originally Posted by solo748 View Post

If daytime NA >> EU flights cater to O/D, How many of the 2,500 DAILY eastbound seats on Canada/Europe’s largest O/D market (MTL<>Paris) are during the day?
As I said before, airline economics take precedence over passenger convenience. That's the main reason why there aren't more daytime flights across the Atlantic.

Also, you'd be susprised at the amount of connecting passengers AF takes on YUL-CDG. And those only work with red-eyes.

The argument "if daytrippers are so popular, why aren't there more of them" is not a valid argument justiflying that daytrippers aren't a more civilized way to cross the pond. That's the only point we are trying to make.

And let's remember that half of all TATL flights are daytrippers, because all the westbound flights from Europe to NA are flown during the day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fanofYOW View Post
https://www.travelpress.com/air-transat-launches-new-ottawa-london-gatwick-flights/

“And Ponce continued: “Combined with the connections offered by our partner Porter Airlines from multiple cities across Canada and the United States, this route positions Ottawa as a genuine gateway to Europe. It perfectly reflects the type of growth we’re focused on – targeted, well-connected routes that strengthen our position in the transatlantic market“

I hope my read-between-the-lines skills are good. Sounds like more is coming!
Highly doubt that. If oil prices stay this high, I think TS is gone by the end of this year or next.

https://canadianaviationnews.ca/transat-provides-update-on-the-volatility-of-aviation-fuel-prices/

In March and April, they spent $70 million more than anticipated due to fuel prices. That's very bad for an airline that hasn't been profitable for a number of years now.

PD won't be far behind, but as long as someone keeps pumping equity into PD, we can't be sure of anything. TS is a publicly traded company. Their books are out in the open, and it doesn't look good.

Spirit was the US's first casualty of these high oil prices. I think a Canadian carrier or two aren't too far behind.

Last edited by thenoflyzone; May 20, 2026 at 6:40 PM.
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  #615  
Old Posted May 20, 2026, 11:41 PM
fanofYOW fanofYOW is offline
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Originally Posted by RomanR27 View Post
Eastbound: 1h42 minute layover from YYC, 2h from YEG, 4h28 from YWG
Westbound: 1h20 to YYC, 6h35 to YEG and 3h30 to YWG

These also appear only bookable through TS, not through PD. Disappointing that YYC is the best-timed connections given they have direct service from AC and WS. YWG and YEG would be worth chasing connecting pax due to the lack of direct service.

It appears YQG and YSB would also be well-timed for connections, but it is not actually bookable, despite the fact the non-stops are bookable on TS with their own code.
I think YQM has options to connect to LGW via YOW as well last time I checked. Either way, there are not many. Good to see they can do it with that little amount. Maybe they are testing the market first to see how much they need to open up connections to make it viable.
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  #616  
Old Posted May 21, 2026, 1:23 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by fanofYOW View Post
I think YQM has options to connect to LGW via YOW as well last time I checked. Either way, there are not many. Good to see they can do it with that little amount. Maybe they are testing the market first to see how much they need to open up connections to make it viable.
Couldn’t find YQM anymore, which must be because of cutting the route from 2x to 1x daily to fund YHU flying, but in addition to the aforementioned western markets, I can also find on PD’s website:

To LGW:
- YHZ
- YYT but no return possible, even via YYZ
- YYZ
- YTZ
- YQT

From LGW:
- BOS
- YYG
- YYZ
- YTZ

YFC and YSB show up but everything is “sold out”.
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  #617  
Old Posted May 21, 2026, 1:24 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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  #618  
Old Posted May 21, 2026, 4:45 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by Dominion301 View Post
Couldn’t find YQM anymore, which must be because of cutting the route from 2x to 1x daily to fund YHU flying, but in addition to the aforementioned western markets, I can also find on PD’s website:

To LGW:
- YHZ
- YYT but no return possible, even via YYZ
- YYZ
- YTZ
- YQT

From LGW:
- BOS
- YYG
- YYZ
- YTZ

YFC and YSB show up but everything is “sold out”.
What's bizarre is you can't purchase a YUL-YOW-LGW ticket on PD's website, even though 2 of 3 days the aircraft goes to/from YUL and pax would have near zero risk of a misconnect, but you can purchase YUL-YYZ-LGW on PD's website, including itineraries with PD codeshares on TS operated YUL-YYZ legs.
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  #619  
Old Posted May 21, 2026, 5:44 PM
RomanR27 RomanR27 is online now
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
Highly doubt that. If oil prices stay this high, I think TS is gone by the end of this year or next.

https://canadianaviationnews.ca/transat-provides-update-on-the-volatility-of-aviation-fuel-prices/

In March and April, they spent $70 million more than anticipated due to fuel prices. That's very bad for an airline that hasn't been profitable for a number of years now.

PD won't be far behind, but as long as someone keeps pumping equity into PD, we can't be sure of anything. TS is a publicly traded company. Their books are out in the open, and it doesn't look good.

Spirit was the US's first casualty of these high oil prices. I think a Canadian carrier or two aren't too far behind.
I wonder if we'd see Transat get rid of the 321ceos and reallocate the 321neo fleet to run their sun program rather than Europe flying in the winter.

Since the ceos are 198 seaters (all economy) and the neos are 199-seaters (12 club + 187 economy), you'd have the same capacity (plus a premium offering) but presumably at a lower fuel cost. I'd imagine the fuel cost increases make some of the 321neo Europe flying they do in the winter unprofitable (if it was even profitable to begin with).

Edit: I had posted AC889 for today already, but AC888 is also full in PY and 28/31 in J. The first UA mainline 319 is scheduled to arrive at 2135 tonight.

Last edited by RomanR27; May 21, 2026 at 6:56 PM.
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  #620  
Old Posted May 22, 2026, 12:08 AM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by RomanR27 View Post
The first UA mainline 319 is scheduled to arrive at 2135 tonight.
Running late now with a 2243 scheduled arrival.

In a couple more weeks, if someone can catch it on a night it arrives 15-20 minutes early, would make for a good at dusk arrival photo.

I believe UA's 319s seat 128, so a nice bump up from the typical 76 seat E75.

EDIT: ended up arriving at 2223.

Last edited by Dominion301; May 22, 2026 at 5:28 AM.
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