Quote:
Originally Posted by good_dude
I totally disagree. What I WOULDN'T like to see is a case where everyone on this forum has rose coloured glasses. I think any of us would support a new tallest as we would support many kinds of development, but I don't see how it's productive to dream about certain developments while stifling closer analysis of them. I'd like to think this forum can help forumers learn a bit about planning, including economics and the market, which are arguably the most important determinants of change.
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I think that there is some truth to this. I would like to see Winnipeg get a "new tallest" as much as the rest of you, but even if we assumed that there was just enough demand for a new, tall office tower (and that's a large assumption), imagine that as soon as it was built, the office space market in Winnipeg would suddenly have a massive increase in supply and not enough demand to completely fill it. A few months back there was a free press article that outlined the current prices for office space in Winnipeg based on class, and even the highest class of office space in Winnipeg was still too cheap to make any sort of major office construction profitable. Now if for some reason a project did come along and make a tower which opened up office space, it would depress the price much further than it is now, resulting in even less incentive for further developers to build something office related in the future, which would not be a very good thing.
I think that sometimes we have to remind ourselves that just because vacancy rates may be low for office space, that doesn't mean there is a large demand for it. It simply means the majority of the stock is being used up, and unless some major force comes in that demands significantly more office space, a new office tower, let alone a "new tallest" isn't likely to happen. The market prices for office space just isn't high enough. I think we all know that Winnipeg likes to grow slow and steady, avoiding large booms or busts, and so Winnipeg does not seem like the city that would suddenly attract a large, foreign tenant who would demand more offices. Instead, I think it's more likely that as the already existing local and international firms here grow, this will slowly increase their needs, allowing for small scale expansion projects to take place, as opposed one rare massive one, and I don't think that there is anything wrong with that type of growth.
However, if it was a mixed use building, that would be an entirely different story, but I have a hard time imagining Winnipeg's new tallest building being a hotel or condo.