Money for transit must be confirmed
Randall Denley
The Ottawa Citizen
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Ottawa's new transit plan is running into serious affordability problems even before it is approved. Sources familiar with the funding situation say the most Ottawa will get from the federal and provincial governments is
$400 million each. If the city puts in a similar amount, it will be $500 million short of what's required for the transit expansion's first phase.
That would leave city councillors in a tricky position. The rail line from Tunney's Pasture to Blair through a downtown tunnel will cost $1.3 billion and making the rail part shorter wouldn't be sensible. The $1.7-billion first phase of the transit plan also calls for $400 million in bus transitway expansion. The bus stuff will be ready to build faster than the rail, so the city intends to start with that. But what if councillors commit themselves to $400 million in bus spending and find they don't have enough money to do the rail? What councillors and the public need is a clear indication from the federal and provincial governments as to how much money they have available for transit in Ottawa over the 10 years it will take to finish the first phase of the expansion.
Whether the project actually qualifies for the money is a separate decision to come later. To put it in simple terms, Ottawa's first question is: "How much money have you got?" The followup is: "Will you spend it on this?" Councillors have been working closely with the federal government and there seems to be solid assurance there for a $400-million commitment between now and 2014 when the current federal infrastructure project runs out. The feds had already promised $200 million for the former project and $35 million for the Strandherd-Armstrong bridge, part of the first phase of the new transit plan. Much of the city's share of the transit plan will be paid for with federal gas-tax money.
Things are a lot less clear at the provincial level. Ottawa West-Nepean MPP Jim Watson says the provincial government won't be in a big rush to give Ottawa an answer, considering the false starts the city has had on this project. He wants to see all the details before making a real commitment.
Watson says he hasn't been briefed in a couple of months. Whose fault is that? This is the biggest municipal-provincial issue in Ottawa and Watson is supposed to be our point man at Queen's Park.
There is also Premier Dalton McGuinty, of course. Just over a year ago, he was urging Ottawa to think big on rail and produce a plan that would serve the city far into the future. Staff have now done that and councillors will approve it. The premier should tell us what help his government can give sooner rather than later. McGuinty has also expressed reservations about a tunnel in the past, and the tunnel in this plan is the key to its success. What's he think now? Let's just say the province has a lot of ground to make up on the Ottawa transit file. That's particularly true when one compares it to the approach McGuinty has taken in Toronto and its suburbs. Before the last provincial election, McGuinty popped up in Mississauga and delighted people in the Greater Toronto Area with a promise of $17.5 billion for a series of transit projects to be completed by 2020.
As it turned out, $6 billion of that was federal money that McGuinty had no authority to announce, but a couple of points stand out. The province, recognizing that the project was too big for municipalities to handle, was promising to pay for two-thirds of what would be built. It was also going to finance the work over 50 years, with the big costs to the provincial treasury not kicking in until more than a decade after McGuinty made his promise.
Compare that to the $200-million promise in his native Ottawa and the tut-tutting from Watson about how the city has handled earlier rail plans, and it doesn't look too impressive.
The uncertainty over the provincial contribution and the likelihood that there won't be enough government money for the $1.7-billion first phase of the city's plan ought to make councillors proceed cautiously. The city does have some capacity to contribute beyond matching the $400-million amounts from the other two governments, but it would be a mistake to load more than one-third of the cost on property-tax payers. The city also needs to retain some spending ability for the second and third phases of the project.
That leaves private-sector money, either from retail development in the rail tunnel or letting the private sector take revenue from the rail system in exchange for capital investment. Those are ideas worth pursuing, but they're iffy.
Councillors are likely to find themselves in the unfortunate position of approving a plan that is less than the public wants, but more than the city can afford. Rail is the critical part of that plan. If it's all that's affordable, the other governments need to speak up, now.
Contact Randall Denley at 613-596-3756 or by e-mail,
[email protected]
© The Ottawa Citizen 2008