US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by drummer

I've heard the potential of Burnet and Blanco Counties, but I haven't heard Lee and Milam. That's interesting. I could certainly see it down the road, but with the next one? Is there that much commuting happening from those two now? Curious to learn.

Lee and Milam are both surer bets than Burnet. Blanco is more likely to end up in San Antonio’s metro than Austin’s. IIRC, Blanco already sends more commuters into San Antonio’s metro than Austin’s, and that’s before the upgrades to 281 are finished.

[urbancore]

If you could snap your fingers and all of Austin "proper" was built out to the maximum allowed by zoning/drs/setbacks, etc. What do you all estimate the population would be? In other words, what is Austin's ceiling for population?

I don't see annexation in our future.
I don't think zoning changes will bring a significant number of units/people into the city as we've seen in the past.
I don't see 100k people living in 78701 in my lifetime.

I think we will continue to see infill buildings torn down and replaced with relatively small residential projects.

That said, I would guess our population effectively tops out around 1.3 in 50 years. I literally just pulled that out of thin air, and I'm curious to see what you all think, or if someone knows of a study that has put some thought behind this.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by urbancore

If you could snap your fingers and all of Austin "proper" was built out to the maximum allowed by zoning/drs/setbacks, etc. What do you all estimate the population would be? In other words, what is Austin's ceiling for population?

I don't see annexation in our future.
I don't think zoning changes will bring a significant number of units/people into the city as we've seen in the past.
I don't see 100k people living in 78701 in my lifetime.

I think we will continue to see infill buildings torn down and replaced with relatively small residential projects.

That said, I would guess our population effectively tops out around 1.3 in 50 years. I literally just pulled that out of thin air, and I'm curious to see what you all think, or if someone knows of a study that has put some thought behind this.

https://services.austintexas.gov/edims/document.cfm?id=171608

The city agrees with you @ +260k, give or take.

[ATX2030]

Originally Posted by drummer

I've heard the potential of Burnet and Blanco Counties, but I haven't heard Lee and Milam. That's interesting. I could certainly see it down the road, but with the next one? Is there that much commuting happening from those two now? Curious to learn.

--Old Alcoa site

--The sale included approximately 31,000 acres in Milam and Lee Counties and was marketed as the Sandow Lakes Ranch

https://sandowlakes.com/

If Tesla builds their Terafab there no telling what will happen to that area.

[The ATX]

Most MSA definitions are made in years ending in threes. So 2033 is likely the next chance of an MSA update. But there are occassionally exceptions to that.

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by The ATX

Most MSA definitions are made in years ending in threes. So 2033 is likely the next chance of an MSA update. But there are occassionally exceptions to that.

...an example of an exception is the "New Haven-Hartford-Waterbury, CT CSA" - which was created in 2020.

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

https://services.austintexas.gov/edims/document.cfm?id=171608

The city agrees with you @ +260k, give or take.

From when was that "report"? Some of the data sets were from 2003 and 2006.

[Lobotomizer]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

From when was that "report"? Some of the data sets were from 2003 and 2006.

Those projections are clearly dated, and do not consider the truly transformational land use changes which have been implemented in Austin.

It may never happen, but I guarantee you could double the number of housing units in the city compared to what we have now without another single annexation. Now change of that magnitude takes generations, but it's possible.

People are going to be shocked, and NIMBYs appalled, whenever things really get rolling.

[ILUVSAT]

The most recent date I saw in the provided document was 2011. And most data was from 2008 or earlier. So, I agree - it's way outdated.

I feel more dense development is coming for Austin. Austin has an affordability problem and one way to alleviate it is to allow for more dense housing options. More urban environments. The Nimbys will hate it...but, it's coming.

50 years ago the City of Austin had a population of 330,000. Today, it's just over 1 million. There is no way to know what its population will be in another 50 years. But, I feel it is safe to bet that will be about double what it is today (at least).

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

https://services.austintexas.gov/edims/document.cfm?id=171608

The city agrees with you @ +260k, give or take.

What a great resource! Thanks for that.

[wwmiv]

I swore I read something about HOME in that link, which is why I posted it—clearly that was wrong.

I suppose we can take that number and probably x5 it, given the reforms.

[OfficialPBreton]

If we end up learning from the mistakes of LA, Dallas, etc., and from the successes of NYC, Chicago, etc., we will hopefully continue reforms to allow the well-connected, amenity-rich areas around Central Austin to transform into dense mid- and high-rise buildings. Let's hope we get there.