Ride-hailing in Metro Vancouver: Uber, Lyft, Sidecar - emerging technologies

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Then it is even scarier that Tesla is pushing robo-taxis as its saviour.

From a purely technical standpoint, Tesla's solution is intentionally handicapped for no rational reason besides perhaps cost cutting. They've intentionally decided to not use sensors that everyone else uses and instead rely only on cameras. It's only expected that Tesla's are going to have worse autonomous driving than other providers that don't have the same self imposed handicaps.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The legal complications seem like the biggest obstacle to mass adoption. When a self-driving rideshare hits somebody, do you throw the book at the driver, the taxi company, the car manufacturer, or the AI's programmers? Or do they all point fingers at each other and walk away scot-free?

I'm not sure but Waymos have already hit (and killed) people.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I'm not sure but Waymos have already hit (and killed) people.

Not sure where your getting that information from, but the only death involving a fully autonomous Waymo is a rear end accident, where the Waymo was stopped at a red light, so not Waymo’s fault.

Fully autonomous Waymo cars have 90% fewer accident claims than human drivers.

[38 Geary]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

I think people get their wires crossed a bit between "number of cars" and "number of cars on the road". There is a possible scenario where the total number of cars goes down if AVs really are widely adopted and that leads to more car sharing. But that does not necessarily equate to less trips, and if the number of trips don't fall then the number of cars on the road won't fall either.

We may see car (if AVs remain in car form) usage go up actually. Like I mentioned before, people may switch from other modes of transport such as public transit or bikes or scooters or even walking, to AVs, as long as AVs can maintain a good value proposition.

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

I'm personally skeptical about the degree of car sharing that one might reasonably expect. The people who are OK with sharing cars can already do so through services like EVO. That number might go up a bit since sharing is a lot more convenient when the car picks you up at your door and you don't have to worry about where to park it, but I don't imagine it's going to be a very significant increase.

And all the hype about earning revenue from your car by allowing it to serve as a ride sharing vehicle when you're not using it seems overblown to me. I don't know that many car owners who would be willing to let anonymous people use their car. Perhaps I'm wrong about this, but we'll see.

I'm also skeptical. Some people like the concept for car sharing, and some might do it, but when it comes down to it, I doubt the vast majority will unless we see a massive paradigm shift as to how society views car ownership.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by logan5

Not sure where your getting that information from, but the only death involving a fully autonomous Waymo is a rear end accident, where the Waymo was stopped at a red light, so not Waymo’s fault.

Fully autonomous Waymo cars have 90% fewer accident claims than human drivers.

Oops thought Waymo was this one but it was Uber:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Elaine_Herzberg

It has certainly hit pedestrians and cyclists though.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Bloomberg had a really good article on Tesla self-driving crashes in the last week. Format's a bit annoying with all the scrolling down but very informative and why this tech might not be quite ready:

Tesla is handicapped by Elon's giant ego that dictates they're not allowed to use tech like lidar, which other companies use in their cars. Tesla's technology isn't ready, but other companies are definitely a lot closer.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by homebucket

We may see car (if AVs remain in car form) usage go up actually. Like I mentioned before, people may switch from other modes of transport such as public transit or bikes or scooters or even walking, to AVs, as long as AVs can maintain a good value proposition.

Sure, but then the number of AVs on the road goes up and then traffic's back to square one (albeit with slightly more passengers).

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Tesla is handicapped by Elon's giant ego that dictates they're not allowed to use tech like lidar, which other companies use in their cars. Tesla's technology isn't ready, but other companies are definitely a lot closer.

Tesla probably would be a lot closer, and maybe ahead, if they used Lidar. They used to have it, and it's removal and a focus on a "vision based system" was a re-write that set them back.

They easily have the most real-world data to rely on.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Then it is even scarier that Tesla is pushing robo-taxis as its saviour.

Tesla investors have been listening for 10 years to Musk proclaim that Tesla vehicles are a fantastic investment because in the "next year or two" owners will be able to share them out as robotaxis. Each year he touts the "next year or two" as when the revolution will happen. And with each of several new iterations of the onboard computing hardware, he's claimed that "this is the version" that will make it possible.

You'd think that investors would be a little smarter.

It seems that Musk's antics are starting to wake some of them up.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

Tesla investors have been listening for 10 years to Musk proclaim that Tesla vehicles are a fantastic investment because in the "next year or two" owners will be able to share them out as robotaxis. Each year he touts the "next year or two" as when the revolution will happen. And with each of several new iterations of the onboard computing hardware, he's claimed that "this is the version" that will make it possible.

You'd think that investors would be a little smarter.

It seems that Musk's antics are starting to wake some of them up.

If you invested $10000 in Tesla 10 years ago, you would have close to $300 000 return. He's doing something right. Tesla bots look to be up there with Boston Dynamics.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Enron was $90.75 per share at its peak. With certain things, their success is based on the perception of their success.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by logan5

If you invested $10000 in Tesla 10 years ago, you would have close to $300 000 return. He's doing something right. Tesla bots look to be up there with Boston Dynamics.

If you invested $10,000 in Tesla 6 months ago you would be $3,150 down today. The only thing Elon did was hiring people who could design successful vehicles. For a few years. Along the way he's also had some terrible ideas of his own that haven't served the company at all well - the Cybertruck, and trying to make self-driving work safely without using Lidar for example.

It looks like the Robotaxis aren't ready yet - or if they are, there's something to hide. There's no evidence his Optimus robots are ready for prime time yet, either. (and they make virtually no sense in the context of car manufacturing - although there could be some other use for them). Boston Dynamics sell working robots. Tesla have a scam promotional event.

[cganuelas1995]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Oops thought Waymo was this one but it was Uber:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Elaine_Herzberg

It has certainly hit pedestrians and cyclists though.

There is certainly gonna have to be some legislative discussion as well as ethical dilemmas, like what if an old lady is crossing the street from one side, and a child darts into the middle of the lane from the other side, and the car doesn't have enough room to brake, what does the car do?

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by logan5

If you invested $10000 in Tesla 10 years ago, you would have close to $300 000 return. He's doing something right. Tesla bots look to be up there with Boston Dynamics.

Yep, bubbles go up, and up, and up.... until they burst.