Canada's mid-size cities are growing like big ones — and running into the same fights

[MolsonExport]

Canada's mid-size cities are growing like big ones — and running into the same fights



The view of downtown London, Ont., from Scenic View Park in the city's west-end. The city's skyline has changed quickly, growing from a handful towers to many more in the last 15 years. (Colin Butler/CBC News)

For generations, growth in many Canadian cities meant the same thing: new subdivisions at the edge of town, detached homes, longer roads and outward expansion. Now, rising land costs, changing affordability pressures, population growth and public policies have pushed builders to add more multi-unit housing, not just newer subdivisions at the edges of cities. CBC News examined 15 years of Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) data for seven mid-size cities: Ontario's London and Kitchener-Waterloo, Halifax, and B.C.'s Abbotsford, Nanaimo, Kelowna and Victoria to capture how growth patterns are changing outside Canada's largest centres.

In each community, apartments, row housing and other multi-unit forms now make up a growing share of new construction, representing nine out of every 10 homes built in Victoria, Abbotsford and Kitchener-Waterloo. In Nanaimo, multi-unit starts were only a tenth of its total construction in 2010, but by 2025, they accounted for two-thirds of the market, while London and Kelowna saw their multi-unit shares jump by 50 per cent, flipping their development profiles from single-family-centric to high-density-centric in just 15 years.

It means that mid-size cities across Canada — long seen as communities that are still urban, but where people sought more space — are adding multi-unit residencies at a pace not seen in decades. The shift is exposing a deep divide: not over whether more housing is needed, but over what kind and who that housing is actually for.

...

Other points raised in the article:
-Building boom didn't bring lower rents
-Math often supports density
-'Missing middle' faces big hurdles
-Neighbours pushing back
-Density shift may not hold

[SpongeG]

wow, last time I was in London On was in 1994, I don't really remember any skyline at all. I remember random apartment highrises but they weren't really clustered.

[someone123]

It's an interesting article but the category of mid-sized city is a little weird. K-W is a metro of 700k with LRT and Nanaimo has around 130k. K-W is more similar to say Winnipeg or Edmonton than it is to Nanaimo. I think there is a bit of inertia built into how these cities are perceived and the "big city" goalposts keep moving.

Halifax has grown a lot and in part the shift simply reflects that. Like they say, the multi-unit change goes back about two decades now. I think there will be some over-building but 30-40 floor towers will become more normal. The first 30 storey building there was built around 1970; 1990-2010 was the aberration in development. I'm not sure why the density trend would change as the city keeps growing and zoning was increased.

I don't know why we'd expect high density to cause house prices to drop. Maybe multi-unit prices could drop. Upzoning typically raises land values, increasing the value of lots. The logic reminds me of the notion of building transit to eliminate car congestion.

[MolsonExport]

^good points. I recall the days when Winnipeg (at 500K metro) was considered one of "Canada's four big cities" (even though Edmonton and Calgary were nipping at its heals).

Now that KW, London, and Halifax have crossed that threshold, they aren't categorized the same way (nor should they necessarily be, as there is a world of difference between the Torontos, Montreals, and Vancouvers (yes, and the Calgarys, Edmontons, and Ottawas) and the KWs, Londons, and Halifaxes of Canada.

What constitutes a "Big City" has evolved over the last century or so. London, England was the first urban area to surpass 2 million, and it was an undisputed metropolis.

Today a city of 2 million wouldn't be considered "Big" by global standards.

But yeah, your point is valid. Nanaimo, at 130K or whatever, is leagues away from KWC at nearly 800K

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

What constitutes a "Big City" has evolved over the last century or so. London, England was the first urban area to surpass 2 million, and it was an undisputed metropolis.

Today a city of 2 million wouldn't be considered "Big" by global standards.

For sure descriptions of size are relative so it depends how a city relates in size to other cities. But I think another part of it is that a 2 million city today (in affluent countries) is often not the same thing as a 2 million city in prior eras because most are so much less dense and less centralized. Even the densest cities in the western world like NY and Paris are less dense than in their peak. Manhattan for instance has never been denser than back in the early 1900s. It was over 1/3 denser in 1920 census than in 2020. Since density makes a place seem bigger and more city-like, and since the same dynamic applied at the metropolitan level for some cities, I wonder if that plays a role. That it isn't just that cities overall got bigger, but also, cities of the same size got smaller in a sense.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

[URL="https://www.cbc.ca/new
[SIZE="1"]The view of downtown London, Ont., from Scenic View Park in the city's west-end. The city's skyline has changed quickly, growing from a handful towers to many more in the last 15 years. (Colin Butler/CBC News)[/SIZE]

The DVP or the Forest City?

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

But yeah, your point is valid. Nanaimo, at 130K or whatever, is leagues away from KWC at nearly 800K

Nanaimo at 130,000+ is in a different tier than Saskatoon at 378,000+

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I recall the days when Winnipeg (at 500K metro) was considered one of "Canada's four big cities" (even though Edmonton and Calgary were nipping at its heals).

Winnipeg CMA growth has accelerated
population estimates
2002: 702,397
2016: 806,186
2023: 909,657
2025: 951,758

It will be exciting when Winnipeg and then Québec City (~903,607) both become 1 Million Metros.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Now that KW, London, and Halifax have crossed that threshold, they aren't categorized the same way (nor should they necessarily be, as there is a world of difference between the Torontos, Montreals, and Vancouvers (yes, and the Calgarys, Edmontons, and Ottawas) and the KWs, Londons, and Halifaxes of Canada.

I dunno. Halifax certainly isn't a major metropolitan area but it's not really a lot more "small town" than Edmonton. It has flattened a lot over the last couple of decades with the internet and as more shops and services have grown. When I lived in Halifax it didn't have things like IKEA or many international flights but now it does. It's arguably more urban than some bigger cities.

It has also qualitatively changed. It used to have a small downtown with mostly mom and pop stores, a few marginal peripheral neighbourhoods, and that was it. It's not really like that anymore. Toronto is a lot larger, sure, but the experience of living in Halifax has changed and Toronto is far away.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Canada's mid-size cities are growing like big ones — and running into the same fights



The view of downtown London, Ont., from Scenic View Park in the city's west-end. The city's skyline has changed quickly, growing from a handful towers to many more in the last 15 years. (Colin Butler/CBC News)

Impressive.

At first glance, I thought it was the Winnipeg skyline.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Nanaimo at 130,000+ is in a different tier than Saskatoon at 378,000+


Winnipeg CMA growth has accelerated
population estimates
2002: 702,397
2016: 806,186
2023: 909,657
2025: 951,758

It will be exciting when Winnipeg and then Québec City (~903,607) both become 1 Million Metros.

Winnipeg's CMA population will decline next year. Manitoba lost 4,600 people in the last 6 months of 2025. It may even be worse for 2026. Meanwhile Quebec lost 24,400 during the same time frame.

My guess is mid 2030's. Canada will probably lose people until perhaps 2028, where we will slowly return to admitting immigrants and temporary workers, at the rate it was prior to COVID< which may take a while.

[someone123]

Another thing I have noticed is that immigration has spread out more broadly around the country. It used to be the case that in smaller cities a lot of major ethnic groups simply wouldn't exist and the only ethnic food or cultural options would be geared toward the Canadian-born population, but that's not as true now. In Halifax in the 90s for example Chinese or Indian restaurants were just "Canadian Chinese" or places selling butter chicken type dishes, and products sold at T&T were tough to find. That is much less true now.

For a long time many people also argued that immigration could only exist in the biggest cities which is obviously untrue. In the Harper era there were punitive caps on immigration to certain provinces and they were defended by circular logic about slower growth in the places where the government discouraged it.

There were always some enclaves, and some places -- even if they aren't big cities -- have more unique local food options than others. If you compare niche Asian food options in Toronto or Vancouver to Halifax there's still a huge gap, but if you look at food options in Halifax there is a lot of variety and quality, and the palate of cities tends to vary based on what's available. Part of the inherent bias sometimes is that people start from the perspective of one place and compare the things they know about with what they can easily find as a tourist somewhere else.