Transit Fantasies

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by fredinno

I already pointed out how R2 is literally the worst-performing RapidBus in terms of ridership other than R3 (and is closest to that line in ridership), and you came up with every excuse in the book to ignore the problem and pretend as if people in NS sans Lonsdale actually use transit.

I addressed all those points, and you've just ignored them.

No, R4 will not lose all of its riders because of Broadway.
Neither will R6 because of Newton SkyTrain, because no sane person will walk 3km to a SkyTrain stop instead of just taking the R6 bus.
R5 has an anchor possible other than Phibbs.
Using the 'bus lane' argument for R1 is dumb because it can also apply to NS (other than the bridges themselves.)

'Duplication' is just a dumb red herring argument.
By that argument, the Millennium Line between Brentwood and Lougheed should never have been built because it 'duplicates' the Expo, and the Expo could have connected to Broadway as a new line via a spur at Commerical-Broadway.

Why does Toronto have 2 north-south railways spaced 3km out from each other?
How could they ever be both used sufficiently and independently attract riders?
Why couldn't they just have Yonge instead of 'duplicating'?


If we go by (current) ridership, R2 will be built out after all the other current RapidBus lines, except R3.
That is more than enough line up to 2050.

And I believe by the time that happens, R3 will be competing directly for R2's ridership numbers.

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So the population and TODs will stagnate out, as I predict, because of the poor zoning.

R2 will continue to underperform, and NS should thus be ignored until R1, R4, R5, and R6 are SkyTrain.
Great.

2014. Maple Ridge created their OCP in 2014.

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Yes, because Langley would have the exact same population as it does now without Hwy 1.
That makes no sense.

Also, I've pointed out that the City of Langley had the same problems as Maple Ridge until SkyTrain was going to go through.
If not, they'd just continue building midrise apartments, as they have been for the last decade. The population stagnated for a decade before that.

The only reasons the population projections are so good for Langley is SkyTrain.
Why would Maple Ridge be different?

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We've been over this- you're the one who wanted to keep SeaBus because transit times vs Norgate were similar and they could up the frequency and so they shouldn't use that crossing and instead use 2nd Narrows for SkyTrain.

You've just undermined your own crossing.


If we use that as a baseline, yes, there's not much benefit for Lonsdale itself if you up the frequency to SkyTrain levels.

Could you perhaps consider using fewer line breaks? Then the wall of text above would look more like this:

Originally Posted by fredinno

I already pointed out how R2 is literally the worst-performing RapidBus in terms of ridership other than R3 (and is closest to that line in ridership), and you came up with every excuse in the book to ignore the problem and pretend as if people in NS sans Lonsdale actually use transit. I addressed all those points, and you've just ignored them.

No, R4 will not lose all of its riders because of Broadway. Neither will R6 because of Newton SkyTrain, because no sane person will walk 3km to a SkyTrain stop instead of just taking the R6 bus. R5 has an anchor possible other than Phibbs. Using the 'bus lane' argument for R1 is dumb because it can also apply to NS (other than the bridges themselves.)

'Duplication' is just a dumb red herring argument. By that argument, the Millennium Line between Brentwood and Lougheed should never have been built because it 'duplicates' the Expo, and the Expo could have connected to Broadway as a new line via a spur at Commerical-Broadway. Why does Toronto have 2 north-south railways spaced 3km out from each other? How could they ever be both used sufficiently and independently attract riders? Why couldn't they just have Yonge instead of 'duplicating'?

If we go by (current) ridership, R2 will be built out after all the other current RapidBus lines, except R3. That is more than enough line up to 2050. And I believe by the time that happens, R3 will be competing directly for R2's ridership numbers.

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So the population and TODs will stagnate out, as I predict, because of the poor zoning. R2 will continue to underperform, and NS should thus be ignored until R1, R4, R5, and R6 are SkyTrain. Great. 2014. Maple Ridge created their OCP in 2014.

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Yes, because Langley would have the exact same population as it does now without Hwy 1. That makes no sense. Also, I've pointed out that the City of Langley had the same problems as Maple Ridge until SkyTrain was going to go through. If not, they'd just continue building midrise apartments, as they have been for the last decade. The population stagnated for a decade before that. The only reasons the population projections are so good for Langley is SkyTrain. Why would Maple Ridge be different?

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We've been over this- you're the one who wanted to keep SeaBus because transit times vs Norgate were similar and they could up the frequency and so they shouldn't use that crossing and instead use 2nd Narrows for SkyTrain. You've just undermined your own crossing. If we use that as a baseline, yes, there's not much benefit for Lonsdale itself if you up the frequency to SkyTrain levels.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by fredinno

- snip -

And I pointed out that without the universities or the SkyTrain connections, they’re pretty much even.

Yes, the R4 replacement would mainly exist to relieve the Millennium Line to UBC.
Yes, the R6 replacement would mainly exist to relieve the Newton line to Whalley and NoF. Obviously you take an E-W feeder bus to the nearest station on KGB, then ride up from there, which is still faster.
Yes, the R5 replacement has anchors, but no connections to the rest of the train network, so that’s not good.
Yes, the R1 has a lot more ability to upgrade itself than the R2 does.

Does the Millennium go NW-SE to Surrey? No? It goes E-W to Coquitlam, something no other SkyTrain line does? Then it’s not a duplication. Arbutus-Lougheed should probably have been a separate line from the start, though; when the original Millennium looped back in on itself, that was a duplication.

One side of Yonge-University covers one set of high-demand destinations, the other covers a completely different set. Apples to oranges.
While we’re on the subject of Toronto, notice the Sheppard Line next to it – despite being a subway crowded by highrises, it gets about as much ridership as the 99 because not many people want to go that way. That’s what the R3 and R6 would be.

Yes, Maple Ridge will indeed stagnate out, they definitely won’t be updating their plan in 2024 (or 34), the R3 will underperform, and we can safely ignore Ridge Meadows beyond that. Great.

Langley City and Township combined outnumbered Maple Ridge almost twice over in 2001, long before any SkyTrain was on the table. And the TCH went there in the first place because it was easier without the rivers in the way, the same decision every Valley resident makes when they decide where to live and work. Like it or not, that part of the metro simply flat-out lost the geography lottery.

I’ll say it one more time, slower: if you’re going downtown, SeaBus is fastest; if you’re going somewhere that’s outside of downtown, then the SkyTrain is fastest. North Van needs both. It's not rocket science.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by GMD

Since this is the fantasy thread, I always thought a line that started at SFU, connected to Hastings via Gondola, went down Hastings, through downtown, across first narrows to Park Royal, across North Shore to Phibbs and across 2nd narrows and down Willingdon (overlapping itself for a few blocks between 2nd narrows and Willingdon) to Metrotown and then across 41st to Kerrisdale and up through UBC from the South to the exchange would be a pretty kick-ass line. Figure you could either call it the University Line, the Sea2Skyline, or just the @ line (based on the route map).

At about 60km, it shouldn't cost more than, what, 30bn?

Kennedy Stewart's election team would like to get in touch with you.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

And I pointed out that without the universities or the SkyTrain connections, they’re pretty much even.

Yes, the R4 replacement would mainly exist to relieve the Millennium Line to UBC.
Yes, the R6 replacement would mainly exist to relieve the Newton line to Whalley and NoF. Obviously you take an E-W feeder bus to the nearest station on KGB, then ride up from there, which is still faster.
Yes, the R5 replacement has anchors, but no connections to the rest of the train network, so that’s not good.
Yes, the R1 has a lot more ability to upgrade itself than the R2 does.

Does the Millennium go NW-SE to Surrey? No? It goes E-W to Coquitlam, something no other SkyTrain line does? Then it’s not a duplication. Arbutus-Lougheed should probably have been a separate line from the start, though; when the original Millennium looped back in on itself, that was a duplication.

One side of Yonge-University covers one set of high-demand destinations, the other covers a completely different set. Apples to oranges.
While we’re on the subject of Toronto, notice the Sheppard Line next to it – despite being a subway crowded by highrises, it gets about as much ridership as the 99 because not many people want to go that way. That’s what the R3 and R6 would be.

Yes, Maple Ridge will indeed stagnate out, they definitely won’t be updating their plan in 2024 (or 34), the R3 will underperform, and we can safely ignore Ridge Meadows beyond that. Great.

Langley City and Township combined outnumbered Maple Ridge almost twice over in 2001, long before any SkyTrain was on the table. And the TCH went there in the first place because it was easier without the rivers in the way, the same decision every Valley resident makes when they decide where to live and work. Like it or not, that part of the metro simply flat-out lost the geography lottery.

I’ll say it one more time, slower: if you’re going downtown, SeaBus is fastest; if you’re going somewhere that’s outside of downtown, then the SkyTrain is fastest. North Van needs both. It's not rocket science.

And people would use R4 to go Metrotown-Oakridge or Metrotown/New West to Richmond. Which is a major demand source for the current highway buses, as I pointed out.

Not if you're trying to go from Scott Road to anywhere else in the region other than Surrey Central (direct connection to Expo and SFPR).
If you want to do that, Scott Road is better than going east-west to KGH.
Even Langley- except in that case, you just take a normal bus instead of SkyTrain.

R5 has a 2nd connection to Millennium via the SFU gondolas, technically.
Also, it's still used way more than R2.
Also, the Expo SoF spur has no connections to other SkyTrain lines for tens of km (longer than the total length of R5).
What gives?

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Expo goes East-West to Lougheed via the Production Way Spur.
Yes, it's slower than the Millennium Line.

You seem to not care about that when it comes to R4 or R6, so what gives?

Yes, Maple Ridge will indeed stagnate out, they definitely won’t be updating their plan in 2024 (or 34), the R3 will underperform, and we can safely ignore Ridge Meadows beyond that. Great.

So will DNV (who won't update their OCP either), and we can safely ignore North Shore sans Lonsdale beyond that. Great.

Once again, Maple Ridge is not limited by the OCP, unlike DNV.
So it's a red herring.
Point me to a single case where overhauling the OCP would actually increase Maple Ridge's redevelopment speed and get towers built instead of just midrises.



Sheppard also isn't a good comparison, as it's a 5-station spur within <1km to Highway 401 for its entire length.
No doubt many people will simply drive.

It also connects to the train at 1 point only, which R6 does not do.
R3 also has no freeway nearby to steal demand.

RMTransit made a breakdown of the problems with Sheppard and how it make it better:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv0oWk_OVok

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That the first railways to Vancouver used went on the north side of the Fraser (Ridge Meadows) so they wouldn't have to build a bridge across the Fraser River.

So it's not 100% guaranteed that you'd build a single East-West freeway on the south side of the Fraser.

Also, freeway construction in Vancouver was severely hampered by lack of funding and public opposition (see 3rd Crossing Freeway).
When they needed extra capacity, they just widened the existing freeway instead of building a new one on the north side of the Fraser.

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You're saving avg. 5-7 min to go from Metrotown to Lonsdale via Marine and Willingdon SkyTrain vs using SeaBus and Expo.
That's something- I guess.

Not exactly the 15min unidirectional time savings from Broadway end-to-end.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Let's see:

• Metrotown to Oakridge isn’t as high-demand a corridor, nor is it as likely to get built out in the coming decade.
• Metrotown to Richmond doesn’t even have a RapidBus yet.
• Once the SLS opens, local bus connections will improve across the board. They’re not even going to bother with the R6 much of the time: Guildford? Fleetwood? Carvolth? South Surrey? Feeder route, then SkyTrain, then feeder route.
• So you’re going all the way to SFU from Burnaby Heights, just to connect to the Millennium? Good luck with that.
• Surrey’s out at the end of the network; want a rapid transit connection out of Surrey, you gotta go back into the centre.
• Is Columbia-Production a high-traffic segment? Nope, it basically only exists so the Tri-Cities and SFU are linked to the Expo (important, but fairly underutilized).

The DNV’s more likely to update than Maple Ridge; the CNV, most certainly. Great. There’s still several busy malls, a major bus interchange and a university that’ll bring in passengers no matter what, all of which Ridge Meadows lacks.

Of course not: Maple Ridge is limited by its own lethargy and resistance to change. Wake me when I can count the shovel-ready projects with more than one hand, like I can with the North Shore.

Whereas the R3 has seven stops, a smaller catchment, and an alignment right on top of Highway 7. Po-tay-toe, po-tah-toe. The R6 has thirteen (assuming none are axed by a switch to SkyTrain), but twins a much busier corridor which hogs the demand.
Broadway’s only got seven too; it’s about to be one of the busiest line segments in Canada. So station count ain’t everything.

The CPR was also built on the north side because they were going to terminate at Port Moody - without that, and with advances in bridge technology, there was really no reason to go that way for the TCH.

Funny, I worked out 18-33 minutes saved from Lonsdale to Metrotown (not counting transfer time) with Purple. Not bad.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Let's see:

• Metrotown to Oakridge isn’t as high-demand a corridor, nor is it as likely to get built out in the coming decade.
• Metrotown to Richmond doesn’t even have a RapidBus yet.
• Once the SLS opens, local bus connections will improve across the board. You’re not even going to bother with the R6 much of the time: Guildford? Fleetwood? Carvolth? South Surrey? Feeder route, then SkyTrain, then feeder route.
• So you’re going all the way to SFU from Burnaby Heights, just to connect to the Millennium? Good luck with that.
• Surrey’s out at the end of the network; want a rapid transit connection out of Surrey, you gotta go back into the centre.
• Is Columbia-Production a high-traffic segment? Nope, it basically only exists so the Tri-Cities and SFU are linked to the Expo (important, but fairly underutilized).

The DNV’s more likely to update than Maple Ridge; the CNV, most certainly. Great. There’s still several busy malls and a university that’ll bring in passengers no matter what.

Of course not: Maple Ridge is limited by its own lethargy and resistance to change. Wake me when I can count the shovel-ready projects with more than one hand, like I can with the North Shore.

Whereas the R3 has seven stops, a smaller catchment, and an alignment right on top of Highway 7. Po-tay-toe, po-tah-toe. The R6 has thirteen (assuming none are lost if they switch to SkyTrain), but parallels a much busier corridor which sucks in all the demand.
Broadway’s only got seven too; it’s about to be one of the busiest line segments in Canada. So station count ain’t everything.

The CPR was also built on the north side because they were going to terminate at Port Moody; without that, and with advances in bridge technology, there was really no reason to go that way.

Funny, I worked out 18-33 minutes saved from Lonsdale to Metrotown (not counting transfer time) with Purple. Not bad.

[*]So you’re going all the way to SFU from Burnaby Heights, just to connect to the Millennium? Good luck with that.

No, you take a bus.
No one is going to go bus<>Hastings<>Willingdon<>Millennium.
They're just going to take the bus down to Millennium directly.

Same thing if you want to go from Metrotown to Brentwood, which is way more important.

I'm not saying the connection of SkyTrain on Willingdon is a bad idea.


However, you're putting every other RapidBus <> SkyTrain other than the NS lines under unreasonable amounts of criticism just so you can elevate NS above its actual demand and demand potential.

The CPR was also built on the north side because they were going to terminate at Port Moody; without that, and with advances in bridge technology, there was really no reason to go that way.

You're not convincing me that building a bridge across the Pitt is harder than building one across the Fraser.

Seriously?

The Pitt River Bridge only cost $200M, which is a pittance compared to the $1.3B Pattullo (ok, inflation, but still).

Metrotown to Oakridge isn’t as high-demand a corridor, nor is it as likely to get built out in the coming decade.
Metrotown to Richmond doesn’t even have a RapidBus yet.

But even just comparing all the other R/B Lines:
2021 Weekday Boardings (I know, pandemic, but this is the most recent data):
240 Lynn Valley/DT: 7,000
R2 Marine Dr: 4,000
250 Horseshoe Bay: 5,000

319 Scottsdale: 14,000
R1 King George: 11,000
321 Semiahmoo: 6,000 (2,000-3,000 for Semiahmoo <> Newton segment)

130 Willingdon: 14,000

406 Steveston: 3,000

99 Broadway: 29,000
49 49th: 22,000
R4 41st: 22,000
R5 Hastings: 13,000

410 Richmond-22nd St: 8,000
430 Richmond-Metrotown: 5,000

Richmond-Metrotown is on the immediate (5 year) list for R-bus:

It'll be R8 or something.
Just be patient.

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Once the SLS opens, local bus connections will improve across the board. You’re not even going to bother with the R6 much of the time: Guildford? Fleetwood? Carvolth? South Surrey? Feeder route, then SkyTrain, then feeder route.

People will still use R6.

Demand will have to drop by at least 1/4th to make R6 demand drop below R1 demand, and even then, it's still a decent route.
You'd have to go down 2/3rds to get down to R2 levels

That's not going to happen.
Under any scenario.

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Of course not: Maple Ridge is limited by its own lethargy and resistance to change. Wake me when I can count the shovel-ready projects with more than one hand, like I can with the North Shore.

Except you can't give me any evidence for that being the fault of Maple Ridge, rather than having bad luck in terms of transportation infrastructure.

All you're doing is showing your bias because you live closer to the City.

Also, there's a vast difference between Hwy 7 and 401.
It's not even close.

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Yeah, that's my point.

You care so much about 'copying the same route 3 km away.'
Except that's exactly what the Millennium (sans Evergreen and Broadway) does vs the Production Way spur.

It only hits 1 extra municipal center by 'paralleling' the Expo Line. (Brentwood)
Again, what gives?

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Also, depends on the frequency of SeaBus.

Track length from Waterfront to Metrotown: 12 km/20 min +10-12 min Seabus = 30-32 min.
Track length from Lonsdale to Metrotown: 14 km/24 min

Total time savings: 6-8 min.
I have no idea how you got the 33 min number from other than by pretending I didn't say SeaBus frequencies of 2 min.


If you assume that SeaBus can't go below the current frequencies, then you're giving me a point for the Norgate crossing.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Exactly. No connection to the rest of the network, hence Purple.
You’ll also note that Richmond-Metrotown/New West is anchored by SkyTrain on each end, while the R2’s on its own. The 44 and 84 get that kind of ridership too... no recent plans for an RRT there either.
Show me a study that’s got Willingdon by itself – it’d be much cheaper, and yet nobody’s considering it. Maybe it’s because the whole route is greater than the sum of its parts.

Same reason the Canada Line cost $2 billion, but the whole VCC-UBC line will be more than 4x that: stuff got expensive. Why build two or more highway bridges when one will do?

The 16’s got Kerrisdale and Kitsilano, the 3’s got Mount Pleasant and South Main... again what does the R6 have between Scott Road and Scottsdale? You keep ducking this one.
Without any anchors on 120th, it’s easier to go from North Delta to (let’s say) Fleetwood via the 314 or 329 to the corresponding KGB Station and skip the R6 altogether. One or two-station trips are pretty common on the SkyTrain.

Neither can you give me any evidence that Maple Ridge is only waiting for a SkyTrain to transform into an urban transit village. That’s your bias coming from living in the exurbs.
Also, the R3 (in spite of Highway 7’s apparent inadequacies) manages 36 km/h on average, faster than many LRTs and almost as fast as RRT; by most of the metro’s standards, that’d be more than enough for TOD.

One spur goes to Surrey; the other spur goes to SFU which goes to Coquitlam. They ditched the part where the M-Line doubles back on itself. You’re looking for a hypocrisy that’s not there.

Uh-huh, the SeaBus is never getting that many ferries – nor, again does it need to, because I (and many, many North Shore locals) already explained how the current frequency beats the crap out of Norgate.
Against the Purple Line though: 0-15 minutes wait + 12 minutes crossing + 25 minutes Expo = 37-52 minutes; 14 km/45 kph = 19 minutes. 18-33 minutes saved.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Exactly. No connection to the rest of the network, hence Purple.
You’ll also note that Richmond-Metrotown/New West is anchored by SkyTrain on each end, while the R2’s on its own. The 44 and 84 get that kind of ridership too... no recent plans for an RRT there either.
Show me a study that’s got Willingdon by itself – it’d be much cheaper, and yet nobody’s considering it. Maybe it’s because the whole route is greater than the sum of its parts.

Same reason the Canada Line cost $2 billion, but the whole VCC-UBC line will be more than 4x that: stuff got expensive. Why build two or more highway bridges when one will do?

The 16’s got Kerrisdale and Kitsilano, the 3’s got Mount Pleasant and South Main... again what does the R6 have between Scott Road and Scottsdale? You keep ducking this one.
Without any anchors on 120th, it’s easier to go from North Delta to (let’s say) Fleetwood via the 314 or 329 to the corresponding KGB Station and skip the R6 altogether. One or two-station trips are pretty common on the SkyTrain.

Neither can you give me any evidence that Maple Ridge is only waiting for a SkyTrain to transform into an urban transit village. That’s your bias coming from living in the exurbs.
Also, the R3 (in spite of Highway 7’s apparent inadequacies) manages 36 km/h on average, faster than many LRTs and almost as fast as RRT; by most of the metro’s standards, that’d be more than enough for TOD.

One spur goes to Surrey; the other spur goes to SFU which goes to Coquitlam. They ditched the part where the M-Line doubles back on itself. You’re looking for a hypocrisy that’s not there.

Uh-huh, the SeaBus is never getting that many ferries – nor, again does it need to, because I (and many, many North Shore locals) already explained how the current frequency beats the crap out of Norgate.
Against the Purple Line though: 0-15 minutes wait + 12 minutes crossing + 25 minutes Expo = 37-52 minutes; 14 km/45 kph = 19 minutes. 18-33 minutes saved.

Exactly. No connection to the rest of the network, hence Purple.

I asked you if you would be fine with R2 going across 2nd Narrows to connect to SkyTrain, and you said no.

240 is 7,000, and that's the highest of any NS line.
That's a +2,000 rider avg weekday boardings difference.
Most of the other R-Bus lines get more than that despite only connecting to SkyTrain at 1 end.

It really doesn't change things enough to tip the scales.
And 240 is directed at serving Lonsdale and Lynn Valley.


Also, the Willingdon <> Hastings R5 station is the 6th busiest R5 station.
Yes, the connection is important, but it can wait.


Also, again.
Why are we putting undue criticism on a RapidBus <> SkyTrain line with 3.5x the ridership of R2?


Why is is so radical to presume that we should leave the routes with the (2nd) lowest ridership later?
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The Port Mann replacement itself (no highway upgrades) costs $810M, and the two were opened 3 years apart from each other.

It's also a different route, so you benefit more people.

But the reality is that expanding a freeway is less politically difficult than building a new one.


TBF, there were reasons to replace the Port Mann even without it, but still.

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I said half of the boardings on R6/319 so far is the area between Scott Road and Scottsdale.
You keep ignoring that one.

There's no big demand source, just a bunch of little ones that actually add up to quite a bit.

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No, it's because the only reason Willingdon is being studied is because it's part of a NS study that a bunch of mayors lobbied for (which BTW, is basically useless because it only includes benefits, not costs.)

This is just how politics works.

Was Surrey LRT better because it was studied more at a certain period of time than SLS?
No? Exactly.

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I (and many, many North Shore locals) already explained how the current frequency beats the crap out of Norgate.

the current frequency beats the crap out of Norgate.

the current frequency beats the crap out

Downtown <> Norgate <> Lonsdale direct (no transfer): 8km (12 min) [Frequency: 2-3min]
Seabus Crossing time: 10-12 min. [Frequency: 15 min]





It's also way cheaper to up the Seabus frequency to 2 min than to build any SkyTrain crossing option.
Same as BRT in Surrey instead of SkyTrain, which is slightly slower, but cheaper.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by fredinno

I asked you if you would be fine with R2 going across 2nd Narrows to connect to SkyTrain, and you said no....

Once again, a major problem with this is the Ironworker's Memorial Bridge. You can schedule R2s every minute out of Phibbs and all that capacity will be stuck in the extended crawl that is IWM peak period traffic.

Originally Posted by fredinno

....up the Seabus frequency to 2 min....

Tell me you don't understand the SeaBus without telling me you don't understand the SeaBus.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by GMD

Since this is the fantasy thread, I always thought a line that started at SFU, connected to Hastings via Gondola, went down Hastings, through downtown, across first narrows to Park Royal, across North Shore to Phibbs and across 2nd narrows and down Willingdon (overlapping itself for a few blocks between 2nd narrows and Willingdon) to Metrotown and then across 41st to Kerrisdale and up through UBC from the South to the exchange would be a pretty kick-ass line. Figure you could either call it the University Line, the Sea2Skyline, or just the @ line (based on the route map).

At about 60km, it shouldn't cost more than, what, 30bn?

All that for the cost of a single pipeline expansion!? Sign me up

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by fredinno

- snip -

Right, which is why TransLink’s rolling out a Phibbs-Metrotown RapidBus long before the Richmond-Metrotown one.

Again, leave it for what? The North Shore’s the largest and last remaining part of the region without any rapid transit; the West Side, Coquitlam, Richmond, Surrey and Langley are all covered, and that kind of narrows it down, artificially-low R2 ridership or not.
Hastings is being put on the table as the Gold line, but neither it nor 41st have a reason to go first - we’ve already got an E-W line across the entire region, UBC will be covered, and SFU’s getting a gondola at Production Way in a few years, so that addresses most of the R4 and R5’s demand; Oakridge doesn’t really need a second subway yet (or Playland a first). Meanwhile, I wouldn’t be surprised if the R2 and R7 jump to 10k each once there’s a way to Brentwood and Metrotown and the IWMB is no longer a bottleneck.

Well the original Port Mann in ‘64 cost $25 million, 8x cheaper than Pitt. It’s safe to assume a large chunk of the Pattullo’s $1.3 billion is also highway expansion.

No, I’ve said that a spur off Newton-Guildford would solve that one; come to think of it, so would a tram down 152nd through Newton to Scottsdale, providing a ring line for Surrey. As seen with the R3, “a bunch of little sources” does not a RapidBus make, especially when express service would skip most of the 319.

And yet Surrey in general was studied long before the North Shore – there’s obviously criteria involved. Richmond and YVR went ahead of Surrey, was that politics too?

You seem to have forgotten:

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

SkyTrain: 2-5 minute frequency, 13 minutes Waterfront < - > Lonsdale, 15-18 minutes total
SeaBus: 10-15 minute frequency, 12 minute Waterfront < - > Lonsdale, 22-27 minutes total

Peak SkyTrain advantage: 22 – 13 = 9 minutes
Peak SeaBus advantage: 15 – 12 = 3 minutes
Off-peak SkyTrain advantage: 27 - 13 = 14 minutes
Off-peak SeaBus advantage: 18 – 12 = 6 minutes

12 minutes difference = 6 minutes median = 3-minute advantage, SkyTrain
20 minutes difference = 10 minutes median = 4-minute advantage, SkyTrain

Me, I consider any train that loses to a ferry by 3-6 minutes to have had the crap beaten out of it. $3-5 billion to save 3-4 minutes downtown... or to save at least half an hour to Metrotown and beyond? I’ve definitely got the last laugh here.

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

... Tell me you don't understand the SeaBus without telling me you don't understand the SeaBus.

No kidding.

More SeaBus frequency requires more docking space, my dude: to get to even seven-minute headways would require eight vessels over the existing four. Where do you put them? Both terminals are maxed out, there’s nowhere to expand, and even if there were, brand new berths would be much, much pricier than a $34 million renovation; I haven’t even started on how that would mess up harbour traffic. Nope, this is LRT, not BRT.
And you want two-minute service? The law of diminishing returns is currently looking over your shoulder, eagerly waiting to whack you over the head with the Stupid Stick as we speak.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

Once again, a major problem with this is the Ironworker's Memorial Bridge. You can schedule R2s every minute out of Phibbs and all that capacity will be stuck in the extended crawl that is IWM peak period traffic.



Tell me you don't understand the SeaBus without telling me you don't understand the SeaBus.

Cool, so I guess if they every upgrade the IWMB, there’s no need for SkyTrain?


I’m not the one who likes the SeaBus.
I don’t think it’s possible either, but for some reason, this guy kept pointing this out back with the Norgate crossing debate.

You can’t use that argument in 1 place and not expect me to bring it up later.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Right, which is why TransLink’s rolling out a Phibbs-Metrotown RapidBus long before the Richmond-Metrotown one.

Again, leave it for what? The North Shore’s the largest and last remaining part of the region without any rapid transit; the West Side, Coquitlam, Richmond, Surrey and Langley are all covered, and that kind of narrows it down, artificially-low R2 ridership or not.
Hastings is being put on the table as the Gold line, but neither it nor 41st have a reason to go first - we’ve already got an E-W line across the entire region, UBC will be covered, and SFU’s getting a gondola at Production Way in a few years, so that addresses most of the R4 and R5’s demand; Oakridge doesn’t really need a second subway yet (or Playland a first). Meanwhile, I wouldn’t be surprised if the R2 and R7 jump to 10k each once there’s a way to Brentwood and Metrotown and the IWMB is no longer a bottleneck.

Well the original Port Mann in ‘64 cost $25 million, 8x cheaper than Pitt. It’s safe to assume a large chunk of the Pattullo’s $1.3 billion is also highway expansion.

No, I’ve said that a spur off Newton-Guildford would solve that one; come to think of it, so would a tram down 152nd through Newton to Scottsdale, providing a ring line for Surrey. As seen with the R3, “a bunch of little sources” does not a RapidBus make, especially when express service would skip most of the 319.

And yet Surrey in general was studied long before the North Shore – there’s obviously criteria involved. Richmond and YVR went ahead of Surrey, was that politics too?

You seem to have forgotten:



Me, I consider any train that loses to a ferry by 3-6 minutes to have had the crap beaten out of it. $3-5 billion to save 3-4 minutes downtown... or to save at least half an hour to Metrotown and beyond? I’ve definitely got the last laugh here.

So?
I guess there never should have been Millennium Phase 0 because Burnaby was already 'covered' by SkyTrain?
Brentwood was hardly important enough back in the 2000s to justify it.

Remember that the areas between the Hubs exist.

We don't just want density on the Hubs, and all of these options have large areas between the hubs with decent demand- higher demand, even, than many NS 'hubs' (eg. Ambleside, Cap Mall)- the same way Ladner =/= Lougheed.


You're saving 6 min vs the existing buses on the Gondola.
From the BMG report:

Ridership on 135 is cut by half, reducing overall demand on R5 by only 15%.

So R5 now drops to a mere 3x lead instead of a 3.5x lead in demand.


This was also pre-R-bus, btw.

---

Politics? To an extent?

Yes- the Olympics were a thing.



I'm pretty sure Broadway and/or Evergreen would have gone first without the Olympics and politics.
Also, Canada would not have been a PPP.

---

Also, the 2 (old) spans of the Pitt River Bridge originally cost $3.3M combined...

Pitt is still far easier to build over than the Fraser, no matter how you cut the numbers.

---

Cool- so why is Norgate bad? The entire 15 min of waiting are saved for SkyTrain, and it's only 5 min worse for Metrotown.


The vast majority of trips from NS are going to Vancouver, and the same rough number of trips to NS are going are going to everywhere else as from Richmond + Vancouver.
That means the Norgate option is faster for most trips overall, despite only being faster for a (theoretically) smaller geographic area.

You said this was fine because they could just add more SeaBuses.
Which one is it?
Can they add more SeaBuses, or can't they?

Pick one.

[Tvisforme]

Cool, so I guess if they every upgrade the IWMB, there’s no need for SkyTrain?[/QUOTE]
You could at least try to use rational arguments, please.

Originally Posted by fredinno

I’m not the one who likes the SeaBus.

I didn't suggest you like the SeaBus, I said you don't understand it - or much of how the North Shore moves around and functions, based on your comments. Can you not accept that - maybe, just maybe - people who live here might have some insight into what the North Shore needs, perhaps more than you?

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

You could at least try to use rational arguments, please.



I didn't suggest you like the SeaBus, I said you don't understand it - or much of how the North Shore moves around and functions, based on your comments. Can you not accept that - maybe, just maybe - people who live here might have some insight into what the North Shore needs, perhaps more than you?

Maybe when Migrant stops acting as if he knows anything about SoF?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by fredinno

Cool, so I guess if they every upgrade the IWMB, there’s no need for SkyTrain?


I’m not the one who likes the SeaBus.
I don’t think it’s possible either, but for some reason, this guy kept pointing this out back with the Norgate crossing debate.

You can’t use that argument in 1 place and not expect me to bring it up later.

The IWMB is already at maximum capacity; they’d have to build a replacement bridge, so they might as well build a SkyTrain and keep the current bridge until the 2060s like they plan to.

In terms of benefits and time savings per capital cost, Phibbs crossing > SeaBus > Norgate crossing. Everybody gets it except you.

Originally Posted by fredinno

- snip -

As previously covered on the forum, the Millennium was the “politics” you’re thinking of; the NDP hijacked it and sent it to VCC instead of Coquitlam. The latter would’ve been a better use of resources, but we’ve made the best of a bad situation.

“Between the hubs” basically describes 80-90% of most cities on the planet, including Metro Vancouver. It’s the remainder that catalyzes rapid transit in the first place.

The gondola isn’t about replacing the R5, it’s about reducing bus demand and maintenance costs from slogging up a mountain, and making sure SFU continues to operate during the winter instead of shutting down every time it snows. You’ve read yourself how the R5 is set to lose 8k riders once it opens; by the time it gets back to 24k, the R2/R7 will have had long since reached 16k+ themselves, and the North Shore line will be up and running.

See above: Vancouver-North Shore service is already as fast as it can be, and is in no danger of reaching peak capacity; Phibbs covers a different corridor for more time savings, but Norgate gets you a $3-5 billion glorified SeaBus (also, one that takes you further from Metrotown at the start, and cuts Waterfront service in half). And where and when did I say we should have two-minute ferry frequency? Far as I can tell, that’s all you.

The PPP was a mistake, almost the whole city agrees on that. The RAV was not – without a City Hall station to connect to, the Arbutus extension doesn’t make as much sense as it currently does. Ditto a Hastings line.

Originally Posted by fredinno

Maybe when Migrant stops acting as if he knows anything about SoF?

Whereas you evidently don't know anything about how transit works at all (much less the North Shore). The only reason we’ve even been arguing about the North Shore, SoF or “politics overriding actual demand” for ten days is you wanting a cheap excuse to make your little toy interurban to Aldergrove possible, which itself has a business case that’s even weaker than SkyTrain to Maple Ridge, which itself isn't going to be the future of the metro either. They're backwaters, and will stay backwaters, and practically every planner in a position to change the future of the region has run the numbers and agreed with such. End of story.

Feel free to join us in the real world where the North Shore line is definitely first or second, and for good reason... or save it for NIMBYRail, pretend you’ve done TransLink and BC Transit’s jobs for them, and call it quits.

[fredinno]

As previously covered on the forum, the Millennium was the “politics” you’re thinking of; the NDP hijacked it and sent it to VCC instead of Coquitlam. The latter would’ve been a better use of resources, but we’ve made the best of a bad situation.

So politics does matter for the order we make lines?
Thanks for making my point.

Whereas you evidently don't know anything about how transit works at all (much less the North Shore). The only reason we’ve even been arguing about the North Shore, SoF or “politics overriding actual demand” for ten days is you wanting a cheap excuse to make your little toy interurban to Aldergrove possible, which itself has a business case that’s even weaker than SkyTrain to Maple Ridge, which itself isn't going to be the future of the metro either. They're backwaters, and will stay backwaters, and practically every planner in a position to change the future of the region has run the numbers and agreed with such. End of story.

Feel free to join us in the real world where the North Shore line is definitely first or second, and for good reason... or save it for NIMBYRail, pretend you’ve done TransLink and BC Transit’s jobs for them, and call it quits.

Yes, because I threw an idea out and decided to play devil's advocate for it even though I know it was out there.
Just because I'm arguing for something, it doesn't mean I actually support it.

I've argued for Interurban and gondolas across North Van before even though it's a dumb idea, because it helps me learn about things I otherwise wouldn't have known and strengthen my position.


It's not like this is the fantasy thread, and people have proposed weirder stuff.

---



OK, yeah, 'I don't know anything about transit' and am someone from the 'backwaters'.


Meanwhile, you're parroting a Phase 2 study that's has no costs/drawbacks attached (ie. it's just confirmation bias, not an analysis), with a 'roadmap' posted by TransLink where NS is after both UBC and Newton (aka, over 2 decades in the future) when TransLink updates its transit plans every 10 years.


NS SkyTrain is always 'just 20 years in the future.'
Like fusion.



Either way, I'm done. Goodbye.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Politics used to be a problem. It's increasingly less and less of one, and there's no indication that Arbutus, SLS, UBC, the North Shore or any other lines are victims of it.

Yet one joke led you to gush on and on about how no, really, your idea could actually work... only then did you drag it to the Fantasy thread, and then after several polite explanations about how it probably couldn't work, you proceeded to defend it by tearing down a rapid transit line that's actually practical and in the works, for a week and a half (which is what you accused me of doing)... so no, I'll remain skeptical of any claims that you suggested it as a quick, casual thought experiment. Those don't last this long.

TransLink's planning a North Shore line before/along/after a UBC line, but they're only thinking of planning of a line to Newton or Port Coq. Exactly what part of any of that implies that 41st is Priority One?

So long. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

[fredinno]

Back here to avoid going off topic in Burnaby.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Granville-Woodlands is literally being developed as we speak, the most obvious project being three towers at the SkyTrain station. People get a lot more upset about disturbing the dead than the living.

WRT a South Van SkyTrain, it’s been noted before how most of the destinations on 41st are west of Cambie, while 49th’s are east of Cambie, so a subway that combines both is the best option... in which case there's absolutely no reason to play tangrams with Central Park, Ocean View or anywhere else.



If TransLink needs 50% contingency to go elevated in a mostly empty 1-2km stretch of UEL forest, then similar costs for an 8+ km line through two major town centres sounds entirely seemly. And again, even if you do (somehow) save two-thirds of a billion in construction, you pay for it later in additional wear and tear on the trainsets. Metrotown already needs a tunnel, so just build another tunnel at Brentwood and a viaduct in-between and flatten the grade.

3 towers at Safeway (and the few others proposed so far in the Woodlands) is not much more than the also supposedly theoretical Maple Ridge Center.

Also, it's gone about as far as the few Maple Ridge tower proposals and Fraser Mills so far.

I'll concede the point about the Woodlands once I actually see cranes and construction going on at Commercial-Broadway.

The Safeway megatower proposal seems to be in planning limbo so far.


Is it?
I mean, there's the Killarney Community Center and Punjabi Market, but both R4 and 049 have comparable boarding/departures east of Cambie (not exactly the same, but still.)
Also, Killarney's only a few minutes further away from R4.
49th's demand collapses west of Cambie, though, so...


Again, SLS uses a 25% contingency.

Broadway elevated is using 50% because... we don't know, but usually elevated lines usually use 25%, and 50% is reserved for bored tunnels.


The line also has a depression in between.
I will concede you would need a tunnel if you want to connect directly with Metrotown Station, but the area between Brentwood and the Metrotown ridge is a depression and has enough space for even an open SkyTrain Trench.

Using 49 and then 41st also adds another km of track. I'm not sure the demand differential is high enough for all that extra cost.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Don't forget the existing/future density around the station, and on Victoria near Hastings. There's a possibility of Il Mercato going up for development as well. Overall, the Drive area is much more shovel-ready than Maple Ridge is.

It is: Main or Victoria's commercial areas can be captured by either alignment, but Fraser, Killarney and Langara need the train to be on 49th. Joyce-Collingwood doesn't necessarily make for a better rapid transit exchange than Metrotown.

SLS goes through less-developed areas than Broadway or Willingdon; much of TransLink's cost creep has been rising property values. And nobody really likes trenches, especially one deep enough for 4% grade or less; even cut and cover is preferable.

There's a 99% chance that it gets tunneled all the way through central South Van, making the cost difference between 1km or not fairly marginal; the planners may very well drop a Patterson or Elliott station, and that's $200m saved and no musical greenspace with Central Park or the cemetery which is why we're even talking about SkyTrain in the first place. You've got four NoF locals other than me telling you that you're dreaming out loud again. You might want to listen.