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Originally Posted by mcj
Weren't there projections a couple decades back predicting this would have already happened?
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Projections from Statistics Canada, BC Stats and Metro Vancouver have always shown Surrey's population overtaking Vancoover's somewhere soon after 2041.
Statements from Surrey politicians (usually seeking funding for transit, a new hospital or some other public facility) have often claimed that Surrey will overtake Vancouver 'in the next ten years' (or some other short time-frame). They also use the misleading '20,000 people moved to Surrey last year' without mentioning the 10,000 who left the city.
In reality, Surrey grew by around 10,000 people a year, in the past decade and Vancouver around 6,000. So if those rates of growth continue, to make up the 90,000 difference that existed in 2021 will take about 22 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcj
Vancouver will always be the municipality that people actually want to move to. Surrey really only offers lower cost per square foot housing as an advantage over Vancouver, Surrey will have to continue offering lower cost housing in order to remain competitive since there's no other reason to live there. As Surrey densifies prices will rise and this value proposition will deteriorate.
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That's almost certainly untrue. Who you know who is already here, and where there are networks to help settle in, plays a big part in where people
actually want to move to. Nearly 50% of recent immigrants to Surrey were born in India, while less that 10% of Vancouver recent immigrants were born there. Just under 6% of Vancouver's recent immigrants came from the USA, under 2% of Surrey's. 3% of Vancouver's recent immigrants came from Mexico, 0.5% of Surrey's. etc. etc.
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