Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You can say it's a conspiracy all you want. But there's a wide world of airlines out there. Not just AC. Nobody is prioritizing YOW for long haul. And even with shorthaul, Porter might end up with a bigger hub at Pearson than at YOW.

And yes, they know that people drive from YOW to YUL. They don't just know that. They often include Ottawa-Gatineau in YUL's catchment. They know based on payment addresses where their customers are from. And they've decided the yield isn't there. It's not personal. It's business.

I've said before I hope the XLR changes some of this calculation for long haul. But even then when a prime slot at Heathrow (morning arrival hours for example) is worth $10M, it's a tough sell for an airline to use that flying an XLR to Ottawa, when they can send a 77W a whole bunch of other places and get a better return. This is why I hope we get Aer Lingus from Dublin. Widebody services from Eurolegacies is looking increasingly unlikely to YOW. Air Canada to Heathrow is probably the only widebody service Ottawa will ever get.

YOW said it does not show up as a point of sale when someone drives to YUL and therefore, it does not show up as a number. This is coming straight from YOW, not me. They said this is YOW’s biggest downfall because the number of people using it is lower than what it should be. You’re also telling me that if I pay for tickets straight from LH’s site and take LH throughout my entire journey, AC benefits? If that was true, as long as AC get’s minimal I’m good. You seem to think AC’s operations from YOW is acceptable and giving us all the options we need. We should just agree to disagree because I don’t. And because I don’t doesn’t mean I think anyone is “conspiring”.

Also about the population statement. We’re slightly bigger than Calgary and Edmonton. But their airport numbers are much higher due to their isolation without a major hub airport 1.5 hours away by car.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by harls

Just curious if anyone with YOW in their name has a connection to the airline industry...

I did but First Air nowadays Canadian North had and still has no interest in doing anything but serving the North (charters aside). It's too bad as way, way back when 7F did fly a few southern routes - YOW-BOS, YMX, YYB.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

YOW said it does not show up as a point of sale when someone drives to YUL and therefore, it does not show up as a number. This is coming straight from YOW, not me. They said this is YOW’s biggest downfall because the number of people using it is lower than what it should be.

This is in the booking engine. But, airlines also have access to your credit card information and any passenger into you fill out for foreign travel. They know where their customers are coming from.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

You’re also telling me that if I pay for tickets straight from LH’s site and take LH throughout my entire journey, AC benefits? If that was true, as long as AC get’s minimal I’m good.

That is literally what a metal neutral Joint Venture is. They split all profits on all seats across the Atlantic. Even if you fly LH or connect through Newark with United, half the profit goes to AC. In effect, you're dealing with a single airline across the Atlantic, with Air Canada, Lufthansa and United Airlines. They literally had to get antitrust immunity for their Joint Venture:

https://financialpost.com/transportation...sa-and-united-wins-eu-antitrust-approval

So, it's not just AC ignoring Ottawa. They've decided as a group that it is more profitable to flow Ottawa pax through YYZ, YUL, EWR and IAD across the Atlantic.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

You seem to think AC’s operations from YOW is acceptable and giving us all the options we need. We should just agree to disagree because I don’t. And because I don’t doesn’t mean I think anyone is “conspiring”.

You were literally saying they have the data and are ignoring it. Why would any rational business do that?

It's not that I think the current setup is great. Indeed, I detest the AC chokehold on YOW. But beating it requires understanding what you're up against. Begging LH for service isn't beating AC, for example. Getting Aer Lingus to fly here (IAG/Oneworld) or Air France (AFKL/SkyTeam), along with a Porter scissor hub would actually make a difference.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Also about the population statement. We’re slightly bigger than Calgary and Edmonton. But their airport numbers are much higher due to their isolation without a major hub airport 1.5 hours away by car.

It's not just isolation. They have a highly lucrative anchor industry (oil and gas) that flies talent all over the world, often in business class, and pays well enough that those employees have some of the highest disposable incomes in the country, which lets them afford more expensive vacations. Ottawa has a lot of public servants who need a minister's approval if more than 5 of them want to go to a conference, who only fly economy and who mostly vacation at cheap resorts in the Caribbean. And Ottawa does have a hub 1.5 hrs away and a population who has proven they're willing to drive.

Put it this way. If you were running one of those carriers, I'm sure you'd make the same decisions when your network planners gave you the same data.

YOW needs to lock down Porter. And then find some way to lock Porter and IAG management in a room, so that Aer Lingus or British Airways can come here. Air France and KLM are long shots given their ties to WestJet. And if AC or LH is back in Ottawa doing long haul, you can kiss those other carriers good bye for awhile.

[rocketphish]

Strike averted after WestJet reaches tentative agreement with Unifor service workers

The Canadian Press
Jul 24, 2022 • 11 hours ago • 1 minute read

CALGARY — There will be no strike at WestJet this week now that the airline has reached a tentative labour deal with the union representing hundreds of workers at the Calgary and Vancouver airports.

Both the airline and Unifor Local 531 announced the deal on Sunday evening, days before nearly 800 baggage and customer service staff could have walked off the job.

Unifor announced last week that workers had voted 98 per cent in favour of a strike as early as this Wednesday if a deal could not be reached.

Neither side disclosed specific terms of the tentative deal, which is still subject to ratification.

The union issued a release saying the agreement “brings long overdue wage increases and improvements to working conditions.”

The deal, touted as the first between the two sides, will be presented to union members later this week.

Unifor has said wages were a key issue, with current salaries starting at $15.55 an hour and topping out at $23.87 an hour after seven years.

Spokesman Scott Doherty said last week the pay scale has not increased for more than five years, making WestJet’s wages among the lowest in the Canadian aviation industry as inflation soars.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 24, 2022.

https://ottawacitizen.com/pmn/travel-pmn...wcm/842e767e-8a49-4c3a-9596-c58770fcbac2

[Tesladom]

3 flights this year... all 3 out of YUL

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Tesladom

3 flights this year... all 3 out of YUL

With the current shitshow with luggage, I would not want to transfer either.

We flew in early June to LHR. We left from YYZ and returned to YOW via YYZ. The delay on the return was nearly long enough that we could have driven back. If I had to do it again, would have returned to YUL and taken VIA from there.

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 63

Today’s cancellation count: 5

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Honestly. I heard even in the middle of the pandemic, the flights from LHR to YYZ were so jam packed and so many of those travellers had to connect back to YOW. I can't back up that claim, I just heard it from someone who used LHR-YYZ-YOW route.

Toronto had up to 10 flights a day to to London (across all airports). It fell to 2-3 a day turning Pandemic. Killing off that much capacity will cause everything to be full. Its also a major connecting airport to the Indian sub-continent.

[YOWflier]

This talk about airlines knowing where their customers come from based on booking/CC information has me wondering. What about the competition’s?

Does AC know if an Ottawan drives to YUL and flies to/through CDG on AF, or TS? Vice versa? As far as I know this type of data sharing doesn’t cross company/alliance boundaries. The Ottawan is a Montrealer as far as AC is concerned.

So let’s say AF is curious to assess the YOW-CDG market for a nonstop. They don’t have the full demand picture. They only know about who’s flying their metal plus the YOW originators.

[Truenorth00]

I bet airlines can pay the credit card companies for aggregated data. Or possibly even pull immigration data in the future. For example, EU is going to require electronic travel authorizations from May 2023. You'll have to provide your address then. Maybe Air France will be able to get aggregated data on arrivals at CDG from French immigration authorities.

Broadly, there's plenty of ways to gauge demand. And this is the kind of work that data scientists are paid to do. I don't think getting a rough gauge of demand is that difficult a challenge for the airlines. Whatever in-house or from a market research company.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I bet airlines can pay the credit card companies for aggregated data. Or possibly even pull immigration data in the future. For example, EU is going to require electronic travel authorizations from May 2023. You'll have to provide your address then. Maybe Air France will be able to get aggregated data on arrivals at CDG from French immigration authorities.

Broadly, there's plenty of ways to gauge demand. And this is the kind of work that data scientists are paid to do. I don't think getting a rough gauge of demand is that difficult a challenge for the airlines. Whatever in-house or from a market research company.

I'm not sure about immigration data, but there are lots of sources of aggregated data that companies would be happy to sell them. One that comes to mind is searches and purchases through sites like Google and Expedia. They can likely even provide data for people who search flights from Ottawa but purchase flights out of Montreal.

[YOWflier]

This all sounds more like what an airport authority or business community would do to lure an airline.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

This all sounds more like what an airport authority or business community would do to lure an airline.

They absolutely could and should do that to market the airport to potential carriers.

[Truenorth00]

Something to keep in mind is that attracting an airline probably needs to show enough demand for one widebody or two narrowbody departures per day. That's about 300 passengers per day each way (PDEW). 100-200 PDEW from Ottawa to CDG through Montreal and Toronto, is probably not enough to convince Air France to launch YOW service. Especially since they know there's plenty of loyal AC flyers in YOW who might not switch.

[YOWflier]

100 is way too low but 200 likely bags it. That’s an 80% loaded B788. Of course the J demand has to be strong.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

100 is way too low but 200 likely bags it. That’s an 80% loaded B788. Of course the J demand has to be strong.

Most airlines are moving to 300+ seats on their widebody fleets. 200 PDEW would be 66% load factor. Or they send two LR/XLR with ~170 seats each. Now load factor is under 59%.

Regardless of the number of flights, they will have to setup some kind of ground operation at YOW and have a marketing campaign. Those costs have a large fixed component so are better amortized over more flights. Hence, why 2 XLR > 1 789/333.

And this is all before you consider that a chunk of those 200 are probably loyal enough to AC that they might just choose to remain with AC. Or that the higher prices out of YOW will still prompt some pax to drive/train to YUL. That 200 PDEW via YYZ and YUL could easily be down to 100-150 range after those considerations. Now you're talking a realistic best case scenario of 80% load factor on a single XLR daily. 300 is likely the minimum for their planning guidance. Their preferred is probably higher.

Exceptional J demand can change the math above a little bit. But it's not enough by itself to justify service launch usually. There still has to be enough demand to reasonably fill the back. And J demand is substantially crimped in Ottawa, by travel rules for the public service. Heck, government travelers aren't even allowed to book Premium Economy.

All of the above is why I think the absolute best shot for Ottawa is Aer Lingus from Dublin. They can use LR/XLR to go double daily from Ottawa. No need to use a precious slot at a heavily slot constrained airport. And they have a large enough network to capture a whole lot of Europe bound travelers from Ottawa itself. Notably very easy to connect DUB for the whole of the UK.

Second to EI could be Air France. But AF hasn't ordered the 321LR/XLR. And given that they are east of the UK, they are going to need more passengers who are actually bound for France itself. AF could well see more value in Quebec City than Ottawa.

Any services that AC and LH launch from YOW are entirely defensive and meant to kill off enough demand that no airline outside their Joint Venture will launch here.

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Most airlines are moving to 300+ seats on their widebody fleets. 200 PDEW would be 66% load factor. Or they send two LR/XLR with ~170 seats each. Now load factor is under 59%.

Regardless of the number of flights, they will have to setup some kind of ground operation at YOW and have a marketing campaign. Those costs have a large fixed component so are better amortized over more flights. Hence, why 2 XLR > 1 789/333.

And this is all before you consider that a chunk of those 200 are probably loyal enough to AC that they might just choose to remain with AC. Or that the higher prices out of YOW will still prompt some pax to drive/train to YUL. That 200 PDEW via YYZ and YUL could easily be down to 100-150 range after those considerations. Now you're talking a realistic best case scenario of 80% load factor on a single XLR daily. 300 is likely the minimum for their planning guidance. Their preferred is probably higher.

Exceptional J demand can change the math above a little bit. But it's not enough by itself to justify service launch usually. There still has to be enough demand to reasonably fill the back. And J demand is substantially crimped in Ottawa, by travel rules for the public service. Heck, government travelers aren't even allowed to book Premium Economy.

All of the above is why I think the absolute best shot for Ottawa is Aer Lingus from Dublin. They can use LR/XLR to go double daily from Ottawa. No need to use a precious slot at a heavily slot constrained airport. And they have a large enough network to capture a whole lot of Europe bound travelers from Ottawa itself. Notably very easy to connect DUB for the whole of the UK.

Second to EI could be Air France. But AF hasn't ordered the 321LR/XLR. And given that they are east of the UK, they are going to need more passengers who are actually bound for France itself. AF could well see more value in Quebec City than Ottawa.

Any services that AC and LH launch from YOW are entirely defensive and meant to kill off enough demand that no airline outside their Joint Venture will launch here.

You also need two way traffic. How many people are coming to Ottawa? People going to Ottawa - destination is one thing but you also need Ottawa to be a final destination for a lot of people to really get international.

Calgary, Vancvouer, Toronto and Montreal all have that. From tourists, to business to people visiting family, it all comes in big numbers in those cities.
Other side is connecting, the four above cities also do really well since lots of people connect to other cities. The USA especially from a Toronto point of view.

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

You also need two way traffic. How many people are coming to Ottawa? People going to Ottawa - destination is one thing but you also need Ottawa to be a final destination for a lot of people to really get international.

Calgary, Vancvouer, Toronto and Montreal all have that. From tourists, to business to people visiting family, it all comes in big numbers in those cities.
Other side is connecting, the four above cities also do really well since lots of people connect to other cities. The USA especially from a Toronto point of view.

Yes true & good points as Toronto YYZ, Montreal YUL, Vancouver YVR & Calgary YYC already have good number of Domestic/US/ International/flights✈️year round & have enough 2 way traffic from O&D + connecting traffic too.

People in YVR/ YYC in Western Canada won’t back track to Ottawa YOW & connect US/ International destinations as YOW doesn’t really have much.
They will backtrack & fly out of YYZ/ YUL (if) they really needed to.

[Calfan12]

Plus with planes like Boeing 787 ,777 & Airbus A330,A350 all designed to fly longer range International flights.

Puts Ottawa YOW, Edmonton YEG & Winnipeg YWG in a tough spot.

As International flights departing to Europe /Asia from Toronto YYZ, Vancouver YVR, Montreal YUL & Calgary YYC Canada’s 4 busiest airports,can overfly/ by pass either YOW, YEG & YWG on the way to its destination.

[Dominion301]

Today's departure count: 56

Today's cancellation count: 4

With lower departure counts today than a month ago thanks to the culling of schedules, it's hard to fathom YOW bettering the 297K pax recorded in June for July.