Quote:
Originally Posted by casper
There are other considerations that would drive BC Hydro to add capacity.
Vancouver Island is a little mini-grid with a population that will likely hit 1 Million in the next decade or two. It is inter-connected to mainline, however if you can generate capacity on the island that is better that more transmission projects.
From a national/regional security perspective having excess capacity is a good thing. Having excess capacity during years with low levels of snow fall or rain is also good. You also need to be able to take generating stations out for maintenance from time to time. More critical with nuclear, coal, etc. You need a strategy to cover that.
The provincial government at late has been trying to address diesel generators. They are in very remote communities not connected to the grid. They are not material to the overall capacity of the province but still need to be address if we want to be 100% off fossil fuels.
I am all for BC Hydro exporting power to the US. If can get the US consumer to in essence pay off the debt in constructing BC generating capacity that is a positive for us. We own the assets at the end of the day.
BC Hydro need to be working with a 10-15 year time horizon. That is how long new major generating capacity will take to be delivered.
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They've done better than that; there's
a 20 year plan already published. They aren't concerned about Vancouver Island any time soon. "The Vancouver Island capacity Load Resource Balance before planned resources, shown in Figure 4-4, indicates that additional capacity resources are not required for the Vancouver Island region until fiscal 2034".
As I read it, through a combination of reduced demand from existing customers, improvements to the transmission system and limited new generation, they seem to think they can manage to supply the likely demand to 2041.
They say that "Based on BC Hydro’s high-level analysis of comparative unit energy costs, onshore wind resources are likely the lowest cost supply-side energy resource in the near-term. While difficult to predict decades out, large-scale solar resources are expected to become more competitive over the long-term.
Utility-scale batteries are a newer capacity resource with a relatively short lead-time, which can be deployed on a flexible and scalable basis, and are expected to see cost declines over the next 10 years."
They specifically address the additional demand from the switch to EVs, and are intending a management program (through cost benefits from charging off-peak) to manage the requirement for more power.
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