Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando
I second this. Stenar, it's going to take way more than 5-10 years to fill in the valley.
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It is anyone's guess how long it will take to develop those remaining 40,000 acres because it depends on what assumptions you make doing your calculations such as household formation growth in SL County versus Utah and Davis Counties, future zoning density limits, nimbyism, what percent of the land will the residential versus roads, commercial, industrial, government, etc.
I could easily see both scenarios of long or short build out timelines, but to Stenars point the Wasatch Front is already 50,000 units short of existing demand (at least at last calculation by Kem Gardner Institute) and that we are adding 10-15K to that each year in demand.
Also another thing to consider is we are already basically built out in SL County because there are already more people competing for units than are available to purchase, so that is effectively built out. Those people then continue to wait or purchase in another county. It may be decades until we are officially built out, but long before that (now for instance) it will feel like we are.