Quote:
Originally Posted by misher
What I see is a pile of fuel that keeps getting bigger waiting for a spark. A lot of people are holding off on buying but will buy as soon as it seems like the market has hit its bottom and will now recover. The ratio of housing units per a person is getting lower not higher. Interest+unemployment rates are still low and the economy is strong.
Long-term predictions point to rapid price increases before 2025. We just don't know when they'll start.
Liberals may modify the stress test pre-election. Conservatives may modify it post election.
I've seen signs that sales have picked up slightly this month but there still so bad so there's no rush to buy yet. However, sales are still happening at a decent pace, we say slowdown but the market is still decently strong.
The FBT summary trial has ended and thats a wild card depending on what the judge says in a few months.
So I'd say late 2019 we should see price gains. But so much depends on policy rather than the market so who knows.
The numbers are there, the demand is there, I feel we've put a dam in thats holding it back and its just building up now. We have huge government cash injections in BC with LNG, the pipeline, and the coast guard plan. There is a crazy amount of money entering our economy and eventually ending up in peoples hands and there going to want to spend that money on something. People only talk about foreign demand but local demand is huge and we're one of the wealthiest nations in the world so people have money.
The below is a great read.
https://chambermaster.blob.core.windows....19UDILuncheonAndrewRamloPresentation.pdf |
I made a mistake and didn't answer the questions.
The questions:
1. Where do you see the market 12 months from today? Lets focus on price, that's all that anyone cares. Benchmark, average, whatever.
-In 12 months I expect the average price to have gone up around 5-10%. Possibly more depending on what happens, there's a lot of factors. Likely stress test will have been modified or removed, China trade war will hopefully be settled and Meng released, and a few other things look good. However, there's a decent change something bad may happen in the world.
2. Where are we in the cycle? Predict a bottom!
-I'd say we're close to the bottom with maybe 3% more to go down in prices.
3. The long shot - when will YVR RE mark a new high?
Highest prices will happen when the FBT is removed and/or the Liberals regain power for a year. Both are likely to happen but it'll be a while. After either happens there will be a steady rise above inflation.
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