Olympics 2026 Potential Bid Thread - Page 17

suburbia · #**321** Posted **Nov 5, 2018, 9:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by rotten42

Forgive me if I don't really think Furlong is giving his unbiased opinion

Forgive me if I point out you haven't responded to facts as stated by Jim Dinning. You seem to not like responding to actual facts, but on the other hand, your pom-pom raves are getting quite entertaining

MalcolmTucker · #**322** Posted **Nov 5, 2018, 9:08 PM**

The budget has huge contingencies built in, and is informed by all the experience VANOC had. The feds will cover 50% of overruns up to their cap amount.

Remember, we are not building complicated things with unknown unknowns.

suburbia · #**323** Posted **Nov 5, 2018, 9:53 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

The budget has huge contingencies built in, and is informed by all the experience VANOC had. The feds will cover 50% of overruns up to their cap amount.

Remember, we are not building complicated things with unknown unknowns.

Absolutely right. No 1976 stadium debacles for 2026. Leveraging prior know-how and existing world-class facilities makes this an exceptional bid.

As Jim Dinning said, "It is such a fabulous opportunity for our city that has a responsible financial plan as the underpinning of our bid. The fact that Calgarians are going to invest some nearly four hundred million dollars and some four billion dollars are going to come from away from other layers of government, and other tax payers, from the IOC, and from others. And when you think that we are just four hundred million of that four billion dollars, that's a fabulous deal, and it makes our bid a responsible financially, fiscally responsible bid."

tmjr · #**324** Posted **Nov 7, 2018, 4:20 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

Remember, we are not building complicated things with unknown unknowns.

Were there any other Olympic Games held in the past with a similar situation of not building 'complicated things with unknown unknowns'? Or is the history of Olympic Games going over budget due to building new things in complicated circumstances?

Would be nice to be able to compare apples to apples and see how the pie turned out...

Coldrsx · #**325** Posted **Nov 7, 2018, 4:29 AM**

#yolo

suburbia · #**326** Posted **Nov 7, 2018, 5:11 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmjr

Were there any other Olympic Games held in the past with a similar situation of not building 'complicated things with unknown unknowns'? Or is the history of Olympic Games going over budget due to building new things in complicated circumstances?

Would be nice to be able to compare apples to apples and see how the pie turned out...

I don't think so.

In fact, the University of Oxford paper that was referenced in the old Postmedia article Rotten42 shared earlier specifically pointed to all of the prior cost over runs specifically because games were being given to jurisdictions that did not have experience with the games or similar large events, and the bids were all building everything from scratch.

And don't forget that over 20% of the full budget for Calgary 2026 is specifically contingency. John Furlong was amazed with the funding agreement and the size of the contingency.

CrossedTheTracks · #**327** Posted **Nov 7, 2018, 5:15 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmjr

Were there any other Olympic Games held in the past with a similar situation of not building 'complicated things with unknown unknowns'? Or is the history of Olympic Games going over budget due to building new things in complicated circumstances?

Would be nice to be able to compare apples to apples and see how the pie turned out...

Perhaps Los Angeles, 1984?

Quote:

Ambitious construction projects for the two previous Summer Olympics, Montreal 1976 and Moscow 1980, had burdened organizers with substantial debts as expenses greatly exceeded revenues. Consequently, Los Angeles enforced strict controls on their expenditure and rather than constructing new venues with overly ambitious designs, they chose instead to utilise existing venues and facilities wherever possible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Summer_Olympics#Success_of_Los_Angeles_as_host_city

suburbia · #**328** Posted **Nov 7, 2018, 3:13 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrossedTheTracks

Perhaps Los Angeles, 1984?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Summer_Olympics#Success_of_Los_Angeles_as_host_city

Thanks for highlighting LA. Had forgotten about how they had a full court press to limit construction. They were also the first to bring in substantial television revenue - levels that had not been seen before. Part of their success in not constructing too many things came from the fact that they were not afraid to hold events a pinch further away relative to most other Olympics.

tmjr · #**329** Posted **Nov 8, 2018, 2:55 AM**

If somehow, as in the case of LA in 1984, a profit is generated, who gets that money?

MalcolmTucker · #**330** Posted **Nov 8, 2018, 3:13 AM**

The BidCo. Goes in the legacy fund iirc.

tmjr · #**331** Posted **Nov 9, 2018, 4:47 AM**

So, would we be responsible for cost overruns, but not (really) get back any profit? Hmmm.

MalcolmTucker · #**332** Posted **Nov 9, 2018, 6:51 AM**

The legacy fund pays to maintain the sport infrastructure after the games instead of having it decay or have a large cost to taxpayers. The BidCo is us.

Also profit is the wrong word as it implies a net earning. Surplus is the better word.

DizzyEdge · #**333** Posted **Nov 9, 2018, 5:52 PM**

Has anyone figured out what the typical Calgarian tax payer will owe to fund this?
Like (Calgary's part / # property tax payers) + (AB's part / # of AB income tax payers) + (Canada's part / # of federal income tax payers).

Just doing the math purely by # of residents I came up with ~$500/Calgarian, but of course that is wildly too low due to there being significantly less tax payers at all 3 levels than citizens, as well Calgary tax payers probably pay more than the average AB or CAN tax payer.

This is basically made up numbers, but I would expect it to be more accurate than 'citizens', if one assumed 400k YYC property tax payers, and 3/4 of AB and CAN citizens being income tax payers you'd then be looking at an average of $1200/Calgarian, and that's probably too low as well.

MalcolmTucker · #**334** Posted **Nov 9, 2018, 5:57 PM**

The CTF did the math at $2000 per residential property tax account, of course ignoring households with combined tax bills. And that assumes that the funding is 100% direct taxation to people. And the big assumption is that the money will not be spent if the Olympics don't happen. Which isn't true.

CrossedTheTracks · #**335** Posted **Nov 9, 2018, 9:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

The CTF did the math at $2000 per residential property tax account, of course ignoring households with combined tax bills. And that assumes that the funding is 100% direct taxation to people. And the big assumption is that the money will not be spent if the Olympics don't happen. Which isn't true.

Is it possible to substantiate this (that the money would be spent anyway)? i.e., what would the feds spend money on, out of the sports budget, if they didn't spend 1.5 billion on 2026?

I realize that any answer is likely hypothetical, such as "maybe some other city would bid for the PanAm or Commonwealth games if Calgary doesn't proceed", and clearly they wouldn't if Calgary does succeed. But what if no city bids on any such major thing in the same time period, where does the money go?

Corndogger · #**336** Posted **Nov 9, 2018, 9:34 PM**

Calgary 2026 releases renderings of potential Olympic venues, including new field house

More info at:
https://globalnews.ca/news/4648525/calga...lympic-venues-including-new-field-house/

MalcolmTucker · #**337** Posted **Nov 9, 2018, 10:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrossedTheTracks

Is it possible to substantiate this (that the money would be spent anyway)? i.e., what would the feds spend money on, out of the sports budget, if they didn't spend 1.5 billion on 2026?

I realize that any answer is likely hypothetical, such as "maybe some other city would bid for the PanAm or Commonwealth games if Calgary doesn't proceed", and clearly they wouldn't if Calgary does succeed. But what if no city bids on any such major thing in the same time period, where does the money go?

Not really, budgets don't work like that. Since the pot doesn't exist without the games - it isn't like a household that is like "we get one vacation every 10 years" and until that 10th year money goes into a savings account.

As you considered, the government does have in its policy to fund up to 2 multi sport games every decade.

If there is no other games, the government has a general budget constraint, a maximum that it considers ok to spend giving the circumstances. Whether it is the olympics or something else, there are always lots of good ideas to spend money. So it will just be spent on something else. This week the feds spent $800 million on another arctic patrol ship for example, to keep a ship yard employed.

Also remember context. This is $1.5 billion dollars over 8 years. Over the next 8 years the federal government will spend somewhere near $3 trillion dollars.

suburbia · #**338** Posted **Nov 10, 2018, 2:30 AM**

I'm really loving the green roof in the fieldhouse render. I was expecting it to be a fully box'ish building, but it is not.

suburbia · #**339** Posted **Nov 10, 2018, 6:23 PM**

This is a very thoughtful article. Covers a lot of territory and considerations.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/canada-west-olympics-what-cant-be-measured-1.4898231

DoubleK · #**340** Posted **Nov 13, 2018, 4:19 PM**

Yes or no, make sure you get out and vote today!!