Quote:
Originally Posted by freeweed
Additionally, there still is a huge stigma among some people about riding the bus. The train they have no problem with, but the bus is just ... lame. And this goes beyond the practical traffic issues (which are huge, admittedly).
I saw this with the expansion to Crowfoot. Plenty of people who refused to take the express bus out of Royal Oak, but instantly hopped on the train. Trains have a certain cachet about them.
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All figures from 2010 Customer Satisfaction Survey located here:
http://www.calgarytransit.com/pdf/2010_Customer_Satisfaction_Survey_Final_Report.pdf
Page 2 of the full report include table 1.1 which is estimated transit users:
Code:
Survey Year Pop >15yrs Estimated CT Users
2010 882,000 378,000
2009 877,000 382,000
2008 857,000 411,000
2007 836,000 393,000
2006 815,000 310,000
2005 785,000 337,000
2004 750,000 293,000
2003 741,000 267,000
2002 728,000 276,000
Crowfoot station was operational by July 2009 (Actual date was in June but July is tyhe first full month of operation). Observed from above the total number of transit users continued to decline in both 2009 and 2010. and there are 33,000 fewer transit users in Calgary than from the peak in 2008.
The survey's accuracy is 4.4%; 19 times out of 20. So its possible that the survey got these figures wrong. I think its highly unlikely that the survey is so off track that it CT users could increase while the survey shows a decrease. However with the recent federal election and several polsters openly questioning federal election poll data (e.g. why did the Conservatives end up with a strong majority when all the polsters predicted weak minority) it prudent to question the above numbers.
A second possibility is that NW Calgary transit use increased, but was offset by decreases in other quadrants of the city. I would also lump in the argument that transit use increased around the Crowfoot area commnunities but decreased in other areas along the NW line. However both of these scenarios are just shuffling the people mix with no net increase in transit use.
A third possibility is that overall LRT ridership increased but out of city riders replaced citizens of Calgary. The above mentioned survey only looked at transit users who were also citizen of Calgary. A decrease in Calgary users that was offset by an increase out of towners would be reflected as a decrease in ridership on this survey.
To test the accuracy, I also point to annual ridership stats
Code:
Year Revenue Passengers (Millions)
2010 94.4
2009 94.2
2008 95.3
http://www.calgarytransit.com/html/annual_ridership.html
Still have annual ridership drecrease when both bus and transit is combined.
With the above information declared, I still standby my prediction of no net increase in Transit usage within 12 months of West LRT opening.
I further predict that West LRT will shift transit use, increases in the Westend suburbs will see a decrease in transit use for the inner city (Sunalta and 11street west stations in particular could be particularly hard hit if the trains are packed during peak periods).
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