Quote:
Originally Posted by RomanR27
Interesting that international was barely up month-over-month with AF going to daily (and about 50% 77Ws) and LGW at 3x weekly. I calculate 39,464 total international seats for June -- 23,344 on AF with 14x 772 and 15x 77W trips, 9,262 on AC with 8x 333, 5x 789 and 3x 788 round trips, 4,776 on TS with 12 321neo round trips, and 2,112 on PD with 8 E295 round trips.
With that, the combined load factor is 83.4%. It's hard to derive much else with four carriers in the mix.
Last year through June, YOW had 49% of it's eventual annual total. So if they're at about ~2.55M, if this year plays out similarly, then they should break 5.1M this year.
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Thanks for these calculations. For AF, wouldn't they have had 28 departures as daily service commenced on 07JUN26 or did service go to 6x weekly for one week only prior to the seasonal return of daily? Removing one round-trip on say a 772 would be 656 fewer seats, which would bump the overall seat factor up to 84.8%.
Also for AF, is the calculation based on the assumption all 77Ws were on the HD 472 seaters?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhb
I’m a bit surprised that June numbers are less than May. I expect 5.1M yearly record should be achieved considering each month is running about 20k over last year month. July-December last year was about 2.475M.
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While June's international seat factor was down compared to May, it was still an all-time May-October monthly record for the 2nd consecutive month and up over 30% vs June 2025.
Here's the full breakdown of June's numbers, including the surprisingly very strong transborder number:
Sector / Jun-25 / Jun-26 / % Change
Dom: 352,161 / 356,593 / +1.3% - YVR cuts putting a damper on growth perhaps?
TB: 46,325 / 50,458 / +8.9% - even with UA mainline to ORD, a 4th daily IAD & 2/4 on 76 seaters, who saw this coming? World Cup traffic perhaps?
Int'l: 24,899 / 32,927 / +32.2%
TTL: 423,385 / 439,978 / +3.9%
Sector / YTD 2025 / YTD 2026 / % Change
Dom: 1,702,152 / 1,799,331 / +5.7%
TB: 406,786 / 396,769 / -2.5%
Int'l: 280,103 / 352,168 / +25.7%
TTL: 2,389,041 / 2,548,268 / +6.7%
June % of traffic recovered vs 2019 / YTD vs 2019
Sector / June / YTD % recovered
Dom: 98.0% / 93.8%
TB: 104.9% / 102.7%
Int'l: 142.6% / 133.8%
TTL: 101.2% / 99.2% - 2nd month in a row ahead of pre-pandemic topping the 2018 record by just over 2K pax
12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2024
Dom: 3,751,463 / +9.3% - still 257K behind 2018's record - probably almost entirely due to YOW-YTO O&D
TB: 716,294 / -3.4%
Int'l: 557,706 / +28.5%
TTL: 5,025,463 / +9.1%