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  #901  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2026, 1:32 PM
RomanR27 RomanR27 is online now
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On the flip side, PD's sun program alone will likely yield big growth in December international numbers. We'll see how it balances out.

As a spotting alert, today's AC889/888 are on the Olympic Fly the Flag livery A330.
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  #902  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2026, 1:42 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Today’s departure count: 93

Today's cancellation count (so far): 1
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  #903  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2026, 8:39 PM
Rhb Rhb is offline
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Ottawa Airport Authority passenger numbers for June 2026.

https://www.yow.ca/business/passenger-volume
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  #904  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2026, 9:08 PM
RomanR27 RomanR27 is online now
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Originally Posted by Rhb View Post
Ottawa Airport Authority passenger numbers for June 2026.

https://www.yow.ca/business/passenger-volume
Interesting that international was barely up month-over-month with AF going to daily (and about 50% 77Ws) and LGW at 3x weekly. I calculate 39,464 total international seats for June -- 23,344 on AF with 14x 772 and 15x 77W trips, 9,262 on AC with 8x 333, 5x 789 and 3x 788 round trips, 4,776 on TS with 12 321neo round trips, and 2,112 on PD with 8 E295 round trips.

With that, the combined load factor is 83.4%. It's hard to derive much else with four carriers in the mix.

Last year through June, YOW had 49% of it's eventual annual total. So if they're at about ~2.55M, if this year plays out similarly, then they should break 5.1M this year.
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  #905  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2026, 9:31 PM
Rhb Rhb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RomanR27 View Post
Interesting that international was barely up month-over-month with AF going to daily (and about 50% 77Ws) and LGW at 3x weekly. I calculate 39,464 total international seats for June -- 23,344 on AF with 14x 772 and 15x 77W trips, 9,262 on AC with 8x 333, 5x 789 and 3x 788 round trips, 4,776 on TS with 12 321neo round trips, and 2,112 on PD with 8 E295 round trips.

With that, the combined load factor is 83.4%. It's hard to derive much else with four carriers in the mix.

Last year through June, YOW had 49% of it's eventual annual total. So if they're at about ~2.55M, if this year plays out similarly, then they should break 5.1M this year.
I’m a bit surprised that June numbers are less than May. I expect 5.1M yearly record should be achieved considering each month is running about 20k over last year month. July-December last year was about 2.475M.

Last edited by Rhb; Jul 16, 2026 at 10:24 PM.
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  #906  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2026, 4:27 AM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RomanR27 View Post
Interesting that international was barely up month-over-month with AF going to daily (and about 50% 77Ws) and LGW at 3x weekly. I calculate 39,464 total international seats for June -- 23,344 on AF with 14x 772 and 15x 77W trips, 9,262 on AC with 8x 333, 5x 789 and 3x 788 round trips, 4,776 on TS with 12 321neo round trips, and 2,112 on PD with 8 E295 round trips.

With that, the combined load factor is 83.4%. It's hard to derive much else with four carriers in the mix.

Last year through June, YOW had 49% of it's eventual annual total. So if they're at about ~2.55M, if this year plays out similarly, then they should break 5.1M this year.
Thanks for these calculations. For AF, wouldn't they have had 28 departures as daily service commenced on 07JUN26 or did service go to 6x weekly for one week only prior to the seasonal return of daily? Removing one round-trip on say a 772 would be 656 fewer seats, which would bump the overall seat factor up to 84.8%.

Also for AF, is the calculation based on the assumption all 77Ws were on the HD 472 seaters?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhb View Post
I’m a bit surprised that June numbers are less than May. I expect 5.1M yearly record should be achieved considering each month is running about 20k over last year month. July-December last year was about 2.475M.
While June's international seat factor was down compared to May, it was still an all-time May-October monthly record for the 2nd consecutive month and up over 30% vs June 2025.

Here's the full breakdown of June's numbers, including the surprisingly very strong transborder number:

Sector / Jun-25 / Jun-26 / % Change
Dom: 352,161 / 356,593 / +1.3% - YVR cuts putting a damper on growth perhaps?
TB: 46,325 / 50,458 / +8.9% - even with UA mainline to ORD, a 4th daily IAD & 2/4 on 76 seaters, who saw this coming? World Cup traffic perhaps?
Int'l: 24,899 / 32,927 / +32.2%
TTL: 423,385 / 439,978 / +3.9%

Sector / YTD 2025 / YTD 2026 / % Change
Dom: 1,702,152 / 1,799,331 / +5.7%
TB: 406,786 / 396,769 / -2.5%
Int'l: 280,103 / 352,168 / +25.7%
TTL: 2,389,041 / 2,548,268 / +6.7%

June % of traffic recovered vs 2019 / YTD vs 2019
Sector / June / YTD % recovered
Dom: 98.0% / 93.8%
TB: 104.9% / 102.7%
Int'l: 142.6% / 133.8%
TTL: 101.2% / 99.2% - 2nd month in a row ahead of pre-pandemic topping the 2018 record by just over 2K pax

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2024
Dom: 3,751,463 / +9.3% - still 257K behind 2018's record - probably almost entirely due to YOW-YTO O&D
TB: 716,294 / -3.4%
Int'l: 557,706 / +28.5%
TTL: 5,025,463 / +9.1%
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  #907  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2026, 12:53 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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For international, there were a couple of troop charters on TS 330s in June. I wonder if those were included in the June totals which would bump a couple of tens of a point off the overall seat factor for everything else?

Today’s departure count: 95

Today's cancellation count (so far): 0
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  #908  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2026, 1:15 PM
RomanR27 RomanR27 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dominion301 View Post
Thanks for these calculations. For AF, wouldn't they have had 28 departures as daily service commenced on 07JUN26 or did service go to 6x weekly for one week only prior to the seasonal return of daily? Removing one round-trip on say a 772 would be 656 fewer seats, which would bump the overall seat factor up to 84.8%.

Also for AF, is the calculation based on the assumption all 77Ws were on the HD 472 seaters?
Originally AF had daily service loaded for all of June and then removed the 06JUN flight, so there were 29 round trips. I did just double check and indeed all the 77W were 472-seaters in June. For July, two so far have been on the ultra-premium config (and there would have been a third had the 01JUL flight not diverted to YQB).
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  #909  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2026, 8:03 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by RomanR27 View Post
Originally AF had daily service loaded for all of June and then removed the 06JUN flight, so there were 29 round trips. I did just double check and indeed all the 77W were 472-seaters in June. For July, two so far have been on the ultra-premium config (and there would have been a third had the 01JUL flight not diverted to YQB).
Gotcha. Also for July, AC to LHR cnld on 01JUL.

For the June international, I'm purely speculating here, but I suspect the lower overall loads would translate into CUN being in the mid-70s, LGW being around 80 as it matures, LHR being around the 83% mark as TS siphoned some London traffic, with AF in the high 80s. Again just pure speculation with no evidence to back this up beyond what you consistently post for LHR.
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  #910  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2026, 12:11 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Today’s departure count: 88

Today's cancellation count (so far): 0

I wonder if gates 1 & 3 are down for maintenance as there’s nothing scheduled off of them for three consecutive days? It could also be with fewer summertime transborder departures that those gates aren’t needed at present but usually loading bridge gates will have a flight assigned to them at least every couple of days.
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  #911  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2026, 1:46 AM
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YOW-LHR roundup for this week

Monday: AC889 - full Y, 27/31 J, 22/24 PY; AC888 - 17/31 J, 17/24 PY
Wednesday (789): AC889 - 26/29 J, full PY; AC888 - 16/30 J, 17/21 PY
Thursday: AC889 - 15/31 J, 18/24 PY; AC888 - 29/31 J, 23/24 PY
Today (788) - AC889 - full Y/PY, 13/20 J; AC888 full Y/PY/J
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  #912  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2026, 2:24 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Today’s departure count: 91

Today's cancellation count (so far): 5

PD had an extra EWR departure this morning 15 minutes after the usual morning departure. It was on gate 1, so evidently it’s available but still no sign of gate 3 usage.

Yesterday’s cancellation count went from zero in the morning to 10 by end of day with the last cxx at 0230.
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  #913  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2026, 1:14 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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WS are adding a weekly YOW-LIR flight this winter: https://westjet.mediaroom.com/2026-07-20...dds-five-new-routes-for-winter-2026-2027

Service starts 20DEC26.
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  #914  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2026, 2:40 PM
RomanR27 RomanR27 is online now
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WS are adding a weekly YOW-LIR flight this winter: https://westjet.mediaroom.com/2026-07-20...dds-five-new-routes-for-winter-2026-2027

Service starts 20DEC26.
Running on day 7 - also bookable on WS directly, so not a Sunwing-exclusive.

WS2080 YOW 0800 1300 LIR 7M8 7
WS2079 LIR 1350 2040 YOW 7M8 7

On the flip side, looks like they've removed the WS-bookable Sunday CUN flight (or replaced it with LIR, perhaps) and the 2x weekly WS-bookable PVR flights. So even with the new route, it's still a net -2x weekly in this update it appears.
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  #915  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2026, 3:10 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by RomanR27 View Post
Running on day 7 - also bookable on WS directly, so not a Sunwing-exclusive.

WS2080 YOW 0800 1300 LIR 7M8 7
WS2079 LIR 1350 2040 YOW 7M8 7

On the flip side, looks like they've removed the WS-bookable Sunday CUN flight (or replaced it with LIR, perhaps) and the 2x weekly WS-bookable PVR flights. So even with the new route, it's still a net -2x weekly in this update it appears.
And PVR on the WG side is still only weekly on day 4 and CUN is still X37.

Today’s departure count: 95

Today's cancellation count (so far): 1

AF 327 on gate 17B, AC 345 on 28 & AC 888 on 15B.

I see both gates 29 (YSB & a PD YTZ) and 30 (YWG) are getting used today. PD 2497 to YHZ showing on gate 12 instead of 13B.
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  #916  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2026, 5:28 PM
RomanR27 RomanR27 is online now
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Originally Posted by Dominion301 View Post
And PVR on the WG side is still only weekly on day 4 and CUN is still X37.

Today’s departure count: 95

Today's cancellation count (so far): 1

AF 327 on gate 17B, AC 345 on 28 & AC 888 on 15B.

I see both gates 29 (YSB & a PD YTZ) and 30 (YWG) are getting used today. PD 2497 to YHZ showing on gate 12 instead of 13B.
I still see CUN as days x7, at least through Sunwing.

So now we're at:

CUN - 6x weekly (days x7)
PUJ - 5x weekly (days x45)
MBJ - 1x weekly (day 5)
PVR - 1x weekly (day 4)
LIR - 1x weekly (day 7)

So 14x weekly, each day has two sun departures. That's -4x weekly from the pre-Cuba cancellation peak of last winter.
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  #917  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2026, 5:51 PM
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All of a sudden Westjet discovers a new market from YOW. I’m sure they were studying it for years just waiting for the right time and it had nothing to do with Porter. Good to have some competition but part of me reacts with “GFY”.
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  #918  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2026, 5:54 PM
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Speaking of Porter, not sure how broad awareness is of this, but federal public servants get discounted Porter airfare via their union perks portal. e.g. PIPSC service plus. Spread the word.
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  #919  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2026, 5:58 PM
RomanR27 RomanR27 is online now
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I notice AC has made some use of the 321XLR slack once LHR flips over this winter, adding a second weekly YOW-MBJ on Thursdays effective 07JAN. AC889 arrives at 1205, then

AC1390 YOW 1320 1740 MBJ 32Q 4
AC1391 MBJ 1850 2310 YOW 32Q 4

Interesting it doesn't start until 07JAN - you'd think they'd want that running over the Christmas peak since the change on LHR from a 333 to an XLR happens in mid-December. Unless the writing is on the wall here is that the switchover will be pushed back until early January.

As of now, the aircraft will still sit at YOW from mid-day Saturday until Sunday morning. We'll see if anything fills the gap there - if not, would it not make more sense to run that MBJ turn on a Saturday rather than Thursday? Unless they don't want it too close to the Sunday flight on the 223.

I wonder if a weekly BGI (Barbados) would be an option on Saturday. The lie-flat may be an enticing product there - AC typically runs a daily widebody from YYZ in the winter, and also is adding YHZ-BGI this winter. It's also been rumoured as a PD destination, does AC try and beat them to the punch?

Last edited by RomanR27; Jul 20, 2026 at 6:24 PM.
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  #920  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2026, 6:36 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by RomanR27 View Post
I notice AC has made some use of the 321XLR slack once LHR flips over this winter, adding a second weekly YOW-MBJ on Thursdays effective 07JAN. AC889 arrives at 1205, then

AC1390 YOW 1320 1740 MBJ 32Q 4
AC1391 MBJ 1850 2310 YOW 32Q 4

Interesting it doesn't start until 07JAN - you'd think they'd want that running over the Christmas peak since the change on LHR from a 333 to an XLR happens in mid-December. Unless the writing is on the wall here is that the switchover will be pushed back until early January.

As of now, the aircraft will still sit at YOW from mid-day Saturday until Sunday morning. We'll see if anything fills the gap there - if not, would it not make more sense to run that MBJ turn on a Saturday rather than Thursday? Unless they don't want it too close to the Sunday flight on the 223.

I wonder if a weekly BGI (Barbados) would be an option on Saturday. The lie-flat may be an enticing product there - AC typically runs a daily widebody from YYZ in the winter, and also is adding YHZ-BGI this winter. It's also been rumoured as a PD destination, does AC try and beat them to the punch?
True when you're that close already to the 330 to XLR switchover, by that point you may as well just wait until the January doldrums and capture the extra LHR peak holiday traffic. Agreed that they'll probably put in a Saturday afternoon XLR turn to a sun destination, be it equipment swap an existing flight or something additional.
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