Quote:
Originally Posted by acottawa
There are three refineries in the Sarnia area: Imperial Oil at 115k BD, Suncor at 85k and Shell at 72k. It is nearly all of Ontario's refining capacity. The same pipeline also feeds Line 9 to Montreal (most of the rest of Central Canada's refining capacity) and Lines 7 and 11 to the 112k Imperial refinery at Nanticoke.
Even if you think EVs will replace ICEs in the near future, the use of oil for aviation, trains, long distance trucking, buses, petrochemicals and shipping will continue much longer than that.
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Yes 300k bpd. Not insignificant. But we could build a new 300k refinerey for $10 Billion thus a fraction of this cost. Now of course we won't for the same reasons we can't build a pipeline but we could.
Quote:
Originally Posted by casper
I don't think private investors are stupid. We should not expect massive green field expansions in the oil sands. Small incremental expansions perhaps.
I think that is ok.
The pipeline to Ontario should be about "national security" ensuring that Ontario/Quebec supply is still secure as they transition off oil over the coming decades. If we can keep the existing pipeline through the US open, that is a bonus.
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If we had access to tidewater and non looney regulation there would absolutely be green field expansion. This would be the boon that 2005-2014 was for the Canadian economy. Granted this isn't all Trudeau's fault market conditions changed but 2022 and 2026 have given us another lifeline to benefit from the flight to safe oil.
A $30 Billion pipeline for redundancy doesn't make sense.
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