At the risk of conflating several threads; if a 10% increase in taxes could add $120M for transit infrastructure, what ‘low fruit’ should it be used for. One suggestion is bus lanes on streets – maybe Baseline.
Back when the Baseline BRT was approved, in 2017, it was roughly estimated that about $140M could add median bus lanes, wider sidewalks, and cycle-tracks from Heron Station to Baseline Station – which was designated as Phase 1. An additional $8M would add transit priority between Baseline Station and Bayshore Mall. While another $140M would complete the full package of lanes from Baseline Station to Bayshore, or Phase 2.
So, if the Baseline BRT was built all at once, in 2017, it would have cost an estimated $280M for the entire length, from Heron Station to Bayshore Mall. (Just for the humour: Construction of Phase 1 was planned to start in 2020 with buses rolling in 2022.
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By 2019, the first phase, Heron to Baseline Station was estimated at $161M.
I’m sure that everyone is shocked to hear that almost nothing has been done yet to build the Baseline BRT. Currently, $18.5M is in the process of widening the Baseline at Greenbank intersection so that temporary, short, curb-side bus lanes can be added. This ‘Transit-Priority Measure’ has now become Phase 1 of the Baseline BRT Project. The median bus lanes from Heron to Baseline stations has been bumped to become Phase 2. And the estimated cost for that section alone is (well, as of 2024) $290M. With what is now Phase 3, from Baseline Station to Bayshore, estimated to cost (in 2024) $255M.
For reference, according to the Bank of Canada, a $140M cost in 2017 would be roughly $171M in 2024, and $179M today.
If a prospective member of City Council needs to know anything, it is that EVERYTHING ALWAYS GETS MORE EXPENSIVE to do later. Being a procrastinator might mean that you always have something to do tomorrow – but it will surely be more expensive then.
The Baseline BRT has become expensive enough that the likelihood of it ever getting built is dropping fast. Even an extra $120M from a tax surcharge isn’t going to be enough.
Threaded Mode