Quote:
Originally Posted by Saul Goode
I too am a layman, Mark. I'm not "in the industry" either, though I do have some related experience.
I don't claim to be prescient; for that matter, I could be 100% wrong. But a lot of these multi-tower megaprojects were conceived in the intoxicating period of dizzying, explosive population growth of a few years ago. Well, that's fizzled completely. It's over (and with it, the premier's fanciful goal of growing NS to 2 million by 2050, or whenever it was). While there's still capacity to be filled, there's an awful lot under construction right now. I don't think growth in HRM will stop by any means, but it's going to slow radically and with it, the demand for and pace of new construction.
Look around. The Post has stalled completely and Promenade Robie South, which looked so promising, appears dead in the water at the moment. What are we to conclude other than that the ROI isn't looking nearly as rosy as it was just a couple of years ago?
I'd be very pleasantly surprised to be proved wrong as time goes on and will happily eat all the crow you can feed me. But I'm just not feeling it.
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I think that’s a fair take, and to be clear I was intending the tone of my post to be an honest question rather than a challenge to your statements. It just seems to me that rents are still astronomically high, and availability not great, perhaps not untenable as it was with our massive influx of new residents, but still much worse than it was just five or ten years ago.
That said, just like steering a fully laden container ship, there is a huge delay between initial investment and tenants moving in. Maybe there is already enough supply being built to balance out current and future demand. Or maybe the ROI threshold is relatively high such that other investments may be looking more attractive than these.
I honestly have no idea, but I hope there isn’t a quiet tendency of accepting only high profit margins that will have the effect of keeping rent virtually unaffordable for the average (especially young) person who just wants a place to live and enough cash flow to live a reasonably enjoyable life.