MARTY'S 2025 CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION PREDICTION.
EACH district will get a prediction, a vote share, and commentary, along with a BOLD PREDICTION (which will not match my other predictions, but is more of a whacky, crazy, or less likely outcome which could rear its head).
DISTRICT PREDICTIONS (w/ change from 2021 Election)
Avalon
LPC: 59.1% (+9)
CPC: 33.8% (-0.5)
NDP: 6.8% (-7.1)
Other: 0.3% (+0.3)
Call: LPC hold
Confidence: HIGH
Analysis: What once was the CPC’s only bastion of hope in Newfoundland has quickly faded away, as Avalon has trended further and further towards the left as time has passed. For about a year or so, Avalon was projected to be a safe conservative gain, but the resurgence in Liberal support has taken that gain away. Though if you believe the polls, the conservatives have still also held onto enough support in the region to grow from their 2021 numbers, so there is room for growth in the province.
The CPC forfeited any chance of seeing part of that growth in Avalon when they screwed over their own grassroots candidates vying for the nod and planted the must unlikable guy in the world, Steve Kent, as their nominee. Truly a baffling move that wreaks of cronyism and favouritism within party ranks. It’s crazy too, because Liberal nominee Paul Connors isn’t an overly strong candidate, but is a candidate who is greatly benefitting from a boost in his party’s brand, along with a boost from deeply unpopular competitor in his riding.
Not only am I predicting this as a safe Liberal hold, I am predicting that the CPC will remain flat, and technically lose a little support, from their 2021 result in the region, despite the CPC vote share in Newfoundland projected to be several points higher than 2021. Not only is this a loss for the CPC, but it damages their brand within the district which it once coveted.
Bold Prediction for Avalon: CPC finish with under 30% of the popular vote.
Cape Spear
LPC: 65.5% (+10.8)
CPC: 24.0% (+3.6)
NDP: 9.2% (-13.9)
Green: 1.0% (+1.0)
Other: 0.3% (+0.3)
LPC hold
Confidence: HIGH
Analysis: For years, Newfoundlanders (townies in particular) have known about the legacy of Tom Osborne. Former PC turned Liberal MHA was one of the shining stars of Newfoundland political history which has often been marred with incompetence. After a short-lived retirement, Osborne is back as the Liberal candidate for Cape Spear, looking to fill the shoes of the departing Seamus O’Regan.
Look, we all know Osborne is going to win. The best Liberal seat in the province, even with the boundary change, is not likely to suddenly flip here. While I do have the CPC gaining some support, it's a drop in the bucket compared to what the Liberals have gained. And as a real showcase of how far the NDP have fallen, their nominee Brenda Walsh has been an afterthought in a district the NDP once aspired to win. A truly pathetic showing from the NDP will be one of the many reasons why Osborne is headed to Ottawa. Tom will likely be as popular of an MP as he was MHA, and anyone who lives in his district will be lucky to have him as their representative in Ottawa.
Bold Prediction for Cape Spear: Tom Osborne has the highest Liberal vote share in all of Atlantic Canada.
Central Newfoundland
CPC: 49.5% (+2.6%)
LPC: 47.5% (+1.5%)
NDP: 3.0% (-4.1%)
CPC hold
Confidence: LOW
Analysis: This has been a tough one for me. On one hand, with the CPC up in the region, and with a CPC incumbent in Clifford Small, you would think he has a clear advantage, right? I thought that too, and when the Liberals announced Lynette Powell as their nominee, I felt even more confident in Small being re-elected. And then Powell started campaigning. Immediately I took notice, she was doing well. People were getting behind her. There was momentum, and it feels like she still has the wind at her sails as we go into election day.
Now, the big question is will it matter? Incumbents always have an advantage, and there isn’t any indication that conservative support has collapsed in the region. In fact it’s grown, so picking the CPC to lose here isn’t easy like it would be if the CPC were under 30% support. So, what’s likely here? Honestly, I don’t know. Powell could win and I wouldn’t be surprised. Small could win by a hair and I wouldn’t be surprised. Hell, Small could win by 8 points and I wouldn’t be surprised, he is the incumbent after all, and we do love our incumbent MPs here in Newfoundland (exception: St. John’s East).
Ultimately, I’m going to go with Small being re-elected in another extremely right race. But if I’m wrong, I won’t be surprised.
Bold Prediction for Central Newfoundland: Lynette Powell wins Central Newfoundland BUT the Conservatives win another seat elsewhere in Newfoundland, resulting in a total net change of 0 seats for the province.
Labrador
LPC: 52.0% (+9.3)
CPC: 38.0% (+7.6)
NDP: 10.0% (-13.8)
LPC Hold
Confidence: HIGH
Analysis: Labrador can be a tricky beast. The local effects play out here more than any other NL riding. This is especially noticeable because of its extremely small population, where only a couple hundred vote difference can swing a riding.
Labrador has often been a riding where I wondered if the NDP could make a breakthrough in. It could be considered a “northern” riding, where the NDP does well nationally, and the provincial NDP does also have recent success here. Unfortunately, I think that thesis is on pause while the NDP implodes over itself. You’d have to suspect that a large chunk of that NDP vote is going straight to the Liberals, and unlike some of the other ridings in Newfoundland, there was a considerable amount of NDP vote to move here. Even with the CPC up slightly, the NDP collapse will easily propel Philip Earle to Ottawa.
Bold Prediction for Labrador: The NDP buck the trend seen across the country and grab over 20% of the popular vote.
Long Range Mountains
CPC: 47.2% (+7.8)
LPC: 45.4% (+1.0)
NDP: 6.0% (-5.9)
PPC: 1.0% (-3.3)
Other: 0.4% (+0.4)
CPC
GAIN
Confidence: Medium-to-low
Analysis: I am at an impasse here. There are two trains of thought when putting these predictions together. First, do you ignore all the rumblings you hear, do you ignore all the social media discussions you see, and just take the polling average at face value and call it a day? Because if we’re going strictly by polling numbers alone, this should be an easy Liberal hold. If at the end of the day this is a liberal hold, then I can’t say that the data wasn’t there to support it.
But when we look at local dynamics it appears to tell a very different story. First of all, lets get this out of the way: Don Bradshaw is the Liberal version of Steve Kent. Sure, Bradshaw didn’t wear a MAGA hat and post it on social media, but both men are deeply unlikable candidates. Don Bradhsaw may be worse; the man is a rude, condescending asshole with an ego. It would appear that people on the west coast know this and have no issues vocalizing it. Carol Anstey as a person is not without her own faults, as a hardcore Pentecostal Christian she will certainly turn off a decent chunk of the electorate. That being said, she’s run a phenomenal campaign, much like she did in 2021. In fact, I’d wager that she’s run the best campaign out of any of the candidates in Newfoundland.
The question will come down to whether the voters in Long Range Mountains are voting with their local candidate in mind, or if they are voting for the federal party leader. If voters are more concerned about the party, then the Liberals should win. But if the electorate approach this one viewing their local candidates side by side, then this one is Anstey’s to win. Since Newfoundlanders take local candidacy to heart a bit more than elsewhere, I’ve gotta give the nod to Anstey, but will not be surprised in the least if she loses.
Bold Prediction for Long Range Mountains: Once the count is over, Carol Anstey’s vote share will be higher than Clifford Small’s.
St. John’s East
LPC: 56.7% (+11.6)
CPC: 25.9% (+7.8)
NDP: 16.2% (-18.6)
GRN: 1.0% (+1.0)
Other: 0.2% (+0.2)
Liberal hold
Confidence: HIGH
Analysis: Back in December, I was tacking this as an extremely close 3-way race, with all 3 major parties clustered together within a few points of one another. Imagine how exciting that would be right now, a riding with 3 possible winners and no indication of who would come out on top? How times have changed.
The collapse of the NDP will be felt here the most. A district which they should be in contention for resulting in a 3rd place finish. I’m not sure why people insist that Mary Shortall is a strong candidate; I hear it from people all the time but I can’t quite grasp why they think so. In 2021 Shortall herself was unable to hold on to a large chunk of the previous Jack Harris voter pool, who walked right on over to the Liberal camp. Sure, Shortall is a visible face, but being a visible face doesn’t translate to results. It’s a microcosm of the NDP as a whole; we were told for multiple elections now that Jagmeet Singh was the right leader for the party, only for their electoral success to erode under his leadership, and now we’re at the point of no return where the NDP are on the cusp of being wiped off the electoral map.
Dave Brazil for the CPC is a shockingly good candidate for a mostly urban seat. He’ll capture enough of the suburban voters to see a nice bump in vote share compared to 2021, but it won’t be nearly enough to sniff victory.
Joanne Thompson is not a great MP. She merely just exists, but she is the beneficiary of the NDP’s collapse. In another timeline where the NDP didn’t collapse and were running a better candidate, the NDP would have a shot at taking this district from her. But alas, our actual timeline is much less interesting; an easy victory for Joanne Thompson.
Bold Prediction for St. John’s East: This one will take longer to cook as we’ll need to wait for the official poll results to be released in about 9 months time, but my bold prediction is that the CPC will win more ballot boxes than the NDP.
Terra Nova – The Peninsulas
LPC: 49.0% (+1.8)
CPC: 48.0% (+7.1)
NDP: 3.0% (-5.3)
LPC hold
Confidence: Low
Analysis: This is the district which keeps me up at night. I keep flipping back and forth on who I think will win. And I’ll not be surprised if the Liberals win, nor will I be surprised if the Conservatives win. There are areas of strong CPC support in the district, and I had accurately predicted the 2019 CPC surge here back in my 2019 election prediction (you can scroll back and see). But there are also areas of very strong LPC support, especially on the Avalon Peninsula. It makes it hard for either party to break into the other areas. The mood on the ground seems to favour the conservatives, but I just don’t know if it’ll translate to a win. Jonathan Rowe has probably had the better campaign; I am surprised that someone like Anthony Germain hasn’t performed better on the ground. However, Rowe has shown some of the tendencies from the CPC which some might find off-putting (eg. Avoidance of the media).
Ultimately I think the Liberals escape another close race here. CPC support has grown, but clearly the Liberal support has as well. The CPC still can’t quite crack the Liberal fortress that is the Avalon Peninsula part of the district, and it costs them once again.
That being said, I will not be surprised if the CPC wins this by a couple of points. Likewise, I’ll not be surprised if the LPC win this by 10 points.
Bold Prediction for Terra Nova: This is the closest race in Atlantic Canada, and a result will not be made for the district on election night.
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