Quote:
Originally Posted by YOWetal
I am not suggesting shutting down transit is sustainable. I am just pointing out that the Bus strike is not proof that increasing headways of LRT to 10 minutes or cutting bus service is going to lead to any noticeable surge in driving.
Transit is well studied as being highly inelastic on price. In terms of service it depends on what you define as inelastic and would vary a lot of course. The usual method shows adding a 3rd or 4th bus per hour that bus will add less than the average riders of the route previously with the effect being espeically large with less used routes. But I grant that doesn't mean we shouldn't add frequency as those marginal riders can be important for many reasons.
Of coures I recognize that the way congestion works even a 3% increase in car traffice can have an outsized impact.
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I see what you mean. In terms of price inelasticity, there are obvious limits to that in terms of the fares you can charge. Obviously if you have fares that are higher than the cost of alternatives, you are going to lose big chunks of riders.
From what I've seen on service vs. ridership, there are all sorts of variables that change the impact on a particular route. What I haven't seen studied is the impact on service reductions on shorter urban trips. Based on observation, it certainly seems apparent that reducing service to 15 or 20 minutes on main urban routes means the loss of a big chunk of riders who are within a half hour walk of their destination, as it stops being worth waiting for the bus. Granted, these people aren't typically switching to driving, though they may end up in ubers and taxis more often. But they do represent lost passengers and lost revenue for the system.
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