BC Political Discussion: Election 2020 and Beyond

[whatnext]

Cllr Christine Boyle defeated former Vision Cllr Andrea Reimer to be the NDP candidate in Vancouver Little Mountain.

In other news former NDP MLA for Chilliwack, Gwen O'Mahony, will be running for the BC Conservatives in Nanaimo-Lantzville!

[whatnext]

What the hell? So, according to this video the company the BC NDP contracted to run the Clean BC program and award grants is also pitching prospective recipients to hire them to write their grants? #sketchy

https://twitter.com/DouglasTodd/status/1775190203680080108

[whatnext]

At least the NDP can honestly claim they never ran on being fiscally responsible:

British Columbia Gets Third Credit Downgrade in Three Years
S&P cuts Canadian province on plans for record C$8B deficit
Moody’s changes outlook to negative, citing rising debt levels
By Thomas Seal
April 9, 2024 at 10:43 AM PDT
Updated on April 9, 2024 at 1:14 PM PDT

British Columbia’s credit rating was cut to AA- by S&P Global Ratings with a negative outlook — its third downgrade in three years — after the provincial government decided to ramp up borrowing.

The firm said it may lower its rating again in the next two years if the province, Canada’s third-largest by population, “maintains its current fiscal trajectory.”

In February, the BC government projected a record deficit of nearly C$8 billion ($5.9 billion) for the 2024-25 fiscal year as it unveiled plans to accelerate spending on infrastructure, health care and education ahead of a provincial election that’s currently scheduled for Oct. 19.

BC’s fiscal performance is likely to “materially deteriorate in the next two years,” S&P said in a note Monday. With operating deficits equal to more than 5% of operating revenue, and after-capital deficits of about 20% of total revenue, “BC’s budgetary performance will be the weakest of its peers, both domestically and internationally.”...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...t-downgrade-in-three-years?sref=x4rjnz06

[GenWhy?]

"it unveiled plans to accelerate spending on infrastructure, health care and education"

Sounds gouda to me

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

"it unveiled plans to accelerate spending on infrastructure, health care and education"

Sounds gouda to me

Someone's gotta pay for it though, money doesn't grow on trees. It's a little uncomfortable to me knowing that the NDP are planning for BC to go from the lowest debt/GDP ratio province to the highest debt/GDP province, and it seems like the credit raters are agreeing.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

"it unveiled plans to accelerate spending on infrastructure, health care and education"

Sounds gouda to me

Spending money you don't have is always fun until the bills come due.

Andrew Coyne had a piece outlining the trainwreck coming with provincial finances, featuring BC's contribution to the issue:

Provincial finances are a future crisis in the making. It’s time to start work on a solution
ANDREW COYNE
PUBLISHED MARCH 27, 2024

... A monetary union thus implies some limits on the borrowing of member states. And indeed, at the euro’s outset, Europe had imposed such limits: deficits of no more than 3 per cent of GDP, total debt of no more than 60 per cent. But these had not been enforced. Greece, and the euro crisis, were the result. Silly Europe. Tut, tut, tut.

Except … that’s also the case in Canada. Australia co-ordinates the borrowing of its member states through a federal-state body known as the Australian Loan Council. American states have self-imposed limits on their ability to take on debt. German Länder (states) are constitutionally prohibited from running deficits. But in Canada, provinces can borrow as much as they like, in any currency they like. Like Europe, we are a monetary union without a fiscal union. Until lately that hasn’t posed much of a problem. It is about to become one....

....University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, co-director of the invaluable Finances of the Nation website, is even gloomier. He projects the provinces generally face a “fiscal gap” over the next 25 years on the order of 2.5 percentage points of GDP. That’s the amount they would have to either raise taxes or cut spending – not over the long run, but “immediately and permanently” – to bring their debts under control.

In B.C., according to Prof. Tombe, the gap is between 4 per cent and 5 per cent of GDP. To recoup that much through revenues alone, B.C. would have to double its personal income tax, or triple its sales tax. But Newfoundland, PEI and Nova Scotia are, on his calculations, not far behind..

All of which makes the insouciance of recent provincial budgets in Canada’s largest four provinces a little hard to bear. Take B.C., which not long ago had the most rock-solid finances of any province but whose fiscal future, after years of rapid spending growth under the province’s NDP government, Prof. Tombe now rates as “bleaker than any other.” The province’s latest budget projects a deficit of nearly $8-billion for the current fiscal year, with similarly hefty deficits to follow – nearly doubling the province’s debt-to-GDP ratio in four years...(bold mine)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/...future-crisis-in-the-making-its-time-to/

[Migrant_Coconut]

It's a Catch-22: everybody wants BC to catch up to Ontario, but nobody wants BC to spend as much as Ontario.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by whatnext

To recoup that much through revenues alone, B.C. would have to double its personal income tax, or triple its sales tax.

Funny how they never would suggest a tax solution that would affect the rich, like taxing capital gains as income (like we used to do).

Also the province collected $17.3B in personal income taxes. To eliminate the deficit of $7.9B we wouldn't have to double them... talk about bad math.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

It's a Catch-22: everybody wants BC to catch up to Ontario, but nobody wants BC to spend as much as Ontario.

Catch up to them in what?

We can go to HST and increase the provincial portion 1% to match them for starters.

[Newcastle Kid]

Rather concerned about the recent polls showing the BC Conservatives closing in on the NDP... The NDP have done a lot of good stuff recently that we'll likely see pay off over the next few years, and at the very least, it proves they're trying to fix the housing crisis. I can see the Conservatives repealing this work if they somehow win power.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Even if they form a BC UCP with the ex-Libs, I doubt they'd be able to regain enough suburbs to form a government - they're trying to score in the Interior/Valley, and the Lower Mainland/Island is a lot less receptive to that crap.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Catch up to them in what?

A common theme on the Vancouver forum is envy of their housing/infrastructure/amenities (even though in some ways, we have it better in all three categories).

[mcj]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

A common theme on the Vancouver forum is envy of their housing/infrastructure/amenities (even though in some ways, we have it better in all three categories).

The current provincial has put us ahead in terms of housing for the foreseeable future, and amenities are subjective, but they are outspending us per capita in terms of transit infrastructure and that is a fact.

Using this website to guage total project values Ontario is spending around $90B on new and upgraded transit infrastructure projects, while BC is spending just $6.8B in new projects. BC has a population of 5 million+, while Ontario is just over 15 million. BC would need to have an additional ~$24B worth of projects underway to meet Ontario in terms of just transit infrastructure spending. That would be 6 more Surrey-Langley Skytrain sized projects to put that in perspective. Or approximately the cost of the Access for Everyone plan (here's hoping that's the plan to make up this difference). Throw in some BRT lines for Victoria/the Fraser Valley/the Okanagan, and that would bring us to the same level of investment Province-wide.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Yeah, I've said before that the $19 billion spent on the Ontario Line alone could pay for most of Transport 2050 - we're not behind, just outmatched.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Yeah, I've said before that the $19 billion spent on the Ontario Line alone could pay for most of Transport 2050 - we're not behind, just outmatched.

Oh wow. That site I linked still has it pegged at the original $10.9B mark, so add on another $8B to Ontario's plate (basically another Broadway extension equivalent for BC in that cost overrun alone).

[Migrant_Coconut]

Small correction: Broadway is $2.8 bil, and UBCx is up to $3.8... so the cost overrun could actually pay for the entire freaking line.

And Ontario wonders why everybody else in Canada thinks they're full of it.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Small correction: Broadway is $2.8 bil, and UBCx is up to $3.8... so the cost overrun could actually pay for the entire freaking line.

And Ontario wonders why everybody else in Canada thinks they're full of it.

Yeah I meant proportionally the ~$8B / 3 = $2.7B = approx cost of Broadway extension. Since Ontario is about ~3 times the population of BC.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Small correction: Broadway is $2.8 bil, and UBCx is up to $3.8... so the cost overrun could actually pay for the entire freaking line.

And Ontario wonders why everybody else in Canada thinks they're full of it.

Shame Ontario doesn't have the money to pay for it.

[B]Canada's Ontario province sees budget deficit tripling as economy slows[/B]
By Fergal Smith
March 26, 20241:11 PM PDT

TORONTO, March 26 (Reuters) - The Canadian province of Ontario on Tuesday forecast its budget deficit would more than triple in the upcoming fiscal year as economic growth stalls and it spends more on housing and roads, as well as measures to ease the cost of living.

Ontario, Canada's most populous province and home to Toronto, its largest city, said its deficit would widen to C$9.8 billion ($7.2 billion), or 0.9% of gross domestic product, in 2024-25, from an estimated C$3 billion in the current fiscal year, which ends on March 31....

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/c...ficit-tripling-economy-slows-2024-03-26/

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Shame Ontario doesn't have the money to pay for it.

Yeah, BC could pay for it through deficit funding, but they just got their credit worthiness dropped by two agencies earlier this week for doing exactly that.

[CanSpice]

This is pretty relevant to BC politics: Mike de Jong is seeking the federal Conservative nomination for Abbotsford-South Langley.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

This is pretty relevant to BC politics: Mike de Jong is seeking the federal Conservative nomination for Abbotsford-South Langley.

Guess we're about to start seeing the rats fleeing the sinking ship. BCU is pretty doomed in the next election, and his riding is no exception.