City Murder Rates

[craigs]

Is DC a propers city? What other city are propers?

[The North One]

Originally Posted by edale

Of course abandonment and blight don't kill people, but they are signs of economically and socially dysfunctional areas, which is where crime tends to occur most often. More simply, crime happens most in poor, run down, undesirable neighborhoods. Abandonment and blight are common features in these types of neighborhoods. So it's natural to associate abandonment and blight with crime of all types. The fact that DC doesn't have much abandonment or blight, but still has an astounding murder rate is pretty interesting and unique. Driving or walking around the city would not give you an impression that it's a particularly violent or dangerous place when, in fact, it is.

The association is false. US media is mostly to blame since blight is usually the visual eye candy for their murder stories. But the most crime ridden parts of the most dangerous cities don't have much abandonment. Which makes sense, you need a high concentration of people for a lot of crime. Most dirt poor places are fully occupied. You go to murder capitals of the world outside the US, there is no abandonment if anything they're overcrowded.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

You're not at least a tiny bit surprised that DC, one of the most all-out gentrified major US cities, had a murder rate roughly double that of Chicago, America's favorite violent crime whipping boy, last year?

Even if you're not, you can't even understand how some people might be?

DC is a relatively small place, it doesn't take much to drive up the rate. I don't have the stats, but DC probably ended up with under 300 murders, which is still a crazy number, but puts the rate really high.

I spend quite a bit of time in DC, and it's still a rough place, it's less gentrified than Boston IMO, and the parts that are not gentrified are brutal.

The reason Chicago is the whipping boy is because it "wins" the murder contest every year. Similar to Baseball, nobody cares who had the most homeruns per plate appearance in a season, the player with the most homeruns every year is the homerun king, and Chicago is the murder king. That's why it gets the national attention, and probably rightfully so, if we're being honest.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by The North One

But the most crime ridden parts of the most dangerous cities don't have much abandonment.

If that's true, then Chicago is a big-time outlier, because the two most violent areas of the city, Englewood and Garfield Park, are both severely pockmarked with vacant lots where now-demolished buildings and homes once stood.

Both have lost roughly 3/4 of their population over the last 70 years, and they are easily two of the most blighted areas of the entire city. And violent as fuck.

[Crawford]

It's not about abandonment, per se, it's about blight and decay. High crime neighborhoods typically have such characteristics, whether in the U.S. or abroad. DC is interesting in that it has what appear to be very outwardly nice neighborhoods with crazy crime rates.

But yeah, in the Eastern U.S., especially in cities with large poor black populations, abandonment is often a pretty good sign that you're in a high crime neighborhood. A completely abandoned area might not be too horrible bc everyone left, but an urban place with vacant lots here and there is likely pretty shooty.

The highest crime neighborhood in Detroit is full of vacant lots, but not so much that it's completely abandoned. And anyone passing thru would likely be aware they're in a bad area:

https://www.google.com/maps/@42.4352...8192?entry=ttu

[Velvet_Highground]

Washington DC has a huge socioeconomic problems due to a huge concentration of wealth and the nature of some of that wealth. Not to mention that DC is the only major city in the continental US without full representation and self governance.

There’s a lot of dirty money in the DC system with the explosion of the lobbying industry as special interests set up shop in town and spend lavishly to influence towards their desired outcome. If they succeed they are rewarded with a seat on their board while they reap the windfall of a buoyed stock price. It’s led to a revolving door which has increased the partisan gridlock by an order of magnitude.

DC history certainly plays magnified role it was founded as a Federal Town due to intellectual dissent from Jefferson and the Francophones towards the generally Anglophone policy of the Washington administrations championed by Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton. There was a compromise that DC would be founded and a political and socioeconomic battle would take place to decide a winner in the end. A Northern industrial and trade based economy that would see Washington DC eventually rises as
a major city 100 years later or a victory for the slave based economy & protectionist policies with a confederate (little c) government presiding over a bare bones city and government.

The county forged its path in the rivers of blood of the civil war to decide a constitutional, moral & socioeconomic arrangement where there was no real middle ground by the end.

It’s worrying that the conservative forces in the county don’t have any new ideas. With gridlock the order of the day to prevent passage of any legislation they don’t like instead of changing with the times without fundamentally disavowing what they believe in. Mitch McConnell for example was a civil rights advocate in the 60’s & 70’s.

There’s room in the argument for social justice that white culture has worth & men hold an important place in society. Experimentation is all well and good though despite their mistakes elders hold invaluable experience. That doesn’t fire up crowds you need something cool or angry for that which our optimates are sorely lacking. It also takes acknowledgment that the system has been skewed towards such policies being the most valid and finding a way to make room for everyone at the table.


Mike Duncan the creator of the Rome & Revolutions podcasts has a great book called The Storm Before the Storm about the political climate & crisis of the early period of the late Roman Republic. The tactics of the optimates delaying and blocking important legislation were initially aimed at preventing the rise of political figures they saw as demagogues.

We are sidetracked as a country fighting in the trenches over small potatoes. There is a reason why the CATO institute a prominent conservative think tank holds that name. They have read the classics and while that’s all well and good there is a certain veneration towards those authors that leans towards infallibility. Cicero was a great orator but he had his own agenda and flaws not to mention he was on the losing end of the game. History is written by the winners but the losers can get in some snide remarks.

*US history is a reflection in many ways that of Roman History trying to avoid mistakes and falling into similar traps. I found Mikes comments about the potential of a future revolution in the US on his French Revolution series to be quite prescient. We aren’t near (1789) we still have time. Either the rich can give a little now and make a lot later or eventually (a series of unfortunate events man made and likely otherwise) will trigger a reaction.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

But yeah, in the Eastern U.S., especially in cities with large poor black populations, abandonment is often a pretty good sign that you're in a high crime neighborhood. A completely abandoned area might not be too horrible bc everyone left, but an urban place with vacant lots here and there is likely pretty shooty.

Yeah, that checks out for Chicago.

And really, how many cities have actual 100% abandoned areas (that were originally residential; I'm not talking about the large de-industrialized wastelands you can find in all rustbelt cities)?

Englewood has suffered the worst population loss out of Chicago's 77 community areas, going from a peak of 97,595 in 1960 down to 24,369 in 2020 (-75.0%). It's quite blighted throughout, with vacant lots all over the place, but as of 2020, there were still 24,369 people living there at an average density of 8,100 ppsm, which is nowhere remotely close to "totally abandoned", and it's one of the most violent places in the developed world.


Here's a typical scene along Halsted, the main north-south street of the neighborhood. Vacant buildings and empty lots galore, as one would expect of a neighborhood that has lost 3/4 of its people.

6736 S Halsted St
https://maps.app.goo.gl/XdnqfiHkgbYLNdGs8

[montréaliste]

One noticeable thing about Englewood, Chicago is that in spite of blight, its sidewalks and streets are spotless. It lives up to old Chi’s reputation as a clean city!

[ilcapo]

After a very calm November & December, this is what we ended up with. Not bad. There might be a couple more added, but it wont change the rates by much.

Sweden
Estimated total (Rate) <Deadly Shootings>
2021: 113 (1.1) <63>
2022: 118 (1.1) <45>
2023: 115 (1.1) <53>

Stockholm Metro
2021: 41 (1.7)
2022: 39 (1.6) <31>
2023: 42 (1,7) <26>

- Within City limits/Municipality
2021: 22 (2.2)
2022: 17 (1.7) <11>
2023: 18 (1.8) <13>

Gothenburg/Göteborg Municipality
2021: 9 (1.5)
2022: 7 (1.2) <4>
2023: 10 (1.7) <3>

Malmo/Malmö Municipality
2021: 5 (1.4)
2022: 11 (3.1) <5>
2023: 4 (1.1) <1>

[mousquet]

Originally Posted by Velvet_Highground

*US history is a reflection in many ways that of Roman History trying to avoid mistakes and falling into similar traps. I found Mikes comments about the potential of a future revolution in the US on his French Revolution series to be quite prescient. We aren’t near (1789) we still have time. Either the rich can give a little now and make a lot later or eventually (a series of unfortunate events man made and likely otherwise) will trigger a reaction.

Um, the French Revolution was basically a horrendous civil war that caused hundreds of thousands of deaths in just a couple of years in France alone, especially in 1793 and 94, the years of terror, that eventually spread to the entire continent and turned into the Napoleonic wars.
The Germans wouldn't forgive us for this whole turmoil until 1945 and the end of WWII.
They were satisfied only because they finally could defeat our country in 1940. That was like restoring their pride, following the humiliations that the French made them go through.

I know the political environment is quite troubled in North America at the moment, but frankly, I don't wish you guys the same.
This is 2024. People are supposed to be smarter, more evolved nowadays.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

LA city had two a couple hours into the new year (warehouse party shooting) but none since as of last night.

[craigs]

Homicides in Los Angeles

2023: 327
2022: 391
2021: 402

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by The North One

The association is false. US media is mostly to blame since blight is usually the visual eye candy for their murder stories. But the most crime ridden parts of the most dangerous cities don't have much abandonment. Which makes sense, you need a high concentration of people for a lot of crime. Most dirt poor places are fully occupied. You go to murder capitals of the world outside the US, there is no abandonment if anything they're overcrowded.

The dynamics at play in the US are pretty different from those in developing countries, where the poorest & most dangerous neighbourhoods are usually teeming with rural migrants who aren't able to leave for a safer alternative. Given the US's more stable urban growth trends and a comparatively greater ease of mobility, anyone with the means to leave a high-crime area usually does.

You're right of course that a fully abandoned urban prairie might not be too dangerous, but the most violent neighbourhoods still usually have some visible decay & abandonment.

[PhillyRising]

Philadelphia is at 3,,,down 50% from this time last year.

[lextown]

Eastern Kentucky 2024

Clay County KY is at 1.

Breathitt County KY is at 1.

Whitley County KY is at 1.

Somewhat Eastern KY

Wayne County KY is at 1 police involved shooting death

Rockcastle County KY is at 1.

Pulaski County KY is at 1.

Robertson County KY is at 2.

[Chisouthside]

I think Chicago is at 5, down from 11 at this point last year.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

I think Chicago is at 5, down from 11 at this point last year.

According to Heyjackass, Chicago is currently at 7

[SIGSEGV]

I wonder if cities like DC have a lot of crime perpetrated by people who don't live in the city (anymore?).

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

I wonder if cities like DC have a lot of crime perpetrated by people who don't live in the city (anymore?).

good question. thats often the case in nyc. so it seems. or at least part timers coming and going.

here in staten we just had some jackass from nj in a stolen box truck smash up like parked 40 cars before they finally got him. its not murder, but reckless mayhem aint good either.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Happens a lot in LA too.. trash that was priced out coming back to their old hoods to act up