Ottawa Bypass Corridor

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Imagine that was your life. Sure you could move, but what if your housing costs would skyrocket? What if your kids are doing well in the school they are in? How long would you need before you think "If only there was a bypass to get some of this traffic out of here"?

I'm starting a year long course where I have 1.25 hr Transit commute each way. At no point did we consider a second car. So I'm probably not the type of person to be swayed with this.

But also, as I wrote to Harley, I'm not convinced that building a bypass 20+ km from downtown will really reduce the traffic that is annoying him. I'm not convinced that even another 300-500k will change that math because the city is not proposing to put the growth anywhere near this fantasy route.

You know what would help Harley? A functional transit system so that tens of thousands of people who used to take transit go back to it. Or building more bridges to Gatineau so that traffic isn't traversing large portions of the city just to get to a bridge.

[Truenorth00]

Two points to consider:
1) Downs-Thomson paradox. Traffic and transit travel time always equalize on a long enough timescale. So if we don't fix transit, motorists will be sitting in traffic longer.

2) New residents have more options. Those 300-500k aren't tied to existing neighbourhood or jobs. They'll maximize their commutes accordingly. They aren't going to be like the DND employee suddenly forced to drive from Orleans to Kanata because their office moved. They'll just get a home in Kanata. I already see this phenomenon in the military with personnel posted into Ottawa recently.

That's why it's spurious for me to simply say 300-500k more residents means a massive increase in cross-town traffic. Heck, if we make proper investments in transit, and densification, that should mean almost no increase in traffic.

Will add that I think a lot of perceptions on this are currently skewed by the construction on the 417 and the unreliability of LRT and the short system length with just Stage 1. Let's have this conversation in 5 years with the Confederation Line fixed, the O-Train network running till Moodie, Lincoln Fields, Leitrim, Riverside South and Trim, and with all the 417 construction finished.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm starting a year long course where I have 1.25 hr Transit commute each way. At no point did we consider a second car. So I'm probably not the type of person to be swayed with this.

But also, as I wrote to Harley, I'm not convinced that building a bypass 20+ km from downtown will really reduce the traffic that is annoying him. I'm not convinced that even another 300-500k will change that math because the city is not proposing to put the growth anywhere near this fantasy route.

You know what would help Harley? A functional transit system so that tens of thousands of people who used to take transit go back to it. Or building more bridges to Gatineau so that traffic isn't traversing large portions of the city just to get to a bridge.

The thing about a transit system is, once it becomes unreliable, it takes a really long time to win the trust of riders. The other thing is, it is cheaper to build a highway than a transit line. So, unless you are suggesting we throw 10s of billions of dollars within a short time to build an extensive system needed, it will not serve him better. The thing can't even handle ice or snow.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

The thing about a transit system is, once it becomes unreliable, it takes a really long time to win the trust of riders. The other thing is, it is cheaper to build a highway than a transit line. So, unless you are suggesting we throw 10s of billions of dollars within a short time to build an extensive system needed, it will not serve him better. The thing can't even handle ice or snow.

It's not going to take "tens of billions" to fix. It's an LRT. Not the Paris-Lyon TGV. Worst case scenario is a new fleet. That's several hundred million.. Not billions. And it's still cheaper than a new highway.

And again, there's still no evidence that a highway that far south helps anybody. This the equivalent of arguing that a Toronto bypass through Orangeville, Newmarket and Uxbridge will solve traffic on the 401 through Toronto.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's not going to take "tens of billions" to fix. It's an LRT. Not the Paris-Lyon TGV. Worst case scenario is a new fleet. That's several hundred million.. Not billions. And it's still cheaper than a new highway.

And again, there's still no evidence that a highway that far south helps anybody. This the equivalent of arguing that a Toronto bypass through Orangeville, Newmarket and Uxbridge will solve traffic on the 401 through Toronto.

The tens of billions is for the system to be expanded. To fix the existing system? Who knows.

This bypass would the same as the 407. Ever use it between the 401 and 404?

[phil235]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

They don't want to see that a good plan could see this highway help mitigate sprawl into areas that are sensitive.
They don't want to see that to be a big city, you still need highways.

Are you arguing that a ring road will limit sprawl? Do you have a single example of when that has been the case? (The 407 that you mention is a great example of the opposite.)

The idea that ring roads are the way of the future or that big cities can only be built that way is pretty discouraging.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

The tens of billions is for the system to be expanded. To fix the existing system? Who knows.

This bypass would the same as the 407. Ever use it between the 401 and 404?

This bypass is 20+ km south of the 417. The 407 is less than 10 km north of the 401 in much of the GTA. And even then, on a lot of trips Google/Waze will not send you up to the 407 unless you're going from one of the GTA to another.

Also, tens of billions to expand the O-Train is wrong. Stage 3 is $5-6B. And that's probably the limit of current expansion plans for at least 30-40 years. As it stands, after Stage 2, something like 80% of Ottawa's population will be within 5 km of an O-Train station. That is substantial coverage for a city that had a toy rail line of a handful of stops a decade ago.

When you use words like "tens of billions" do you even understand what that means? Even GO RER is not "tens of billions". It's something like $12B. Tens of billions in Ottawa would put a subway under literally every major avenue.

I'm not that vantage point in Sudbury affords real insight into Ottawa's transport issues. But it does explain why you think Ottawa taxpayers should prioritize a bypass that does almost nothing for them.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by phil235

Are you arguing that a ring road will limit sprawl? Do you have a single example of when that has been the case? (The 407 that you mention is a great example of the opposite.)

The idea that ring roads are the way of the future or that big cities can only be built that way is pretty discouraging.

He's throwing any excuse at the wall because:

1) He wants to be contrarian (especially against those of us he routinely disagrees with).

2) He regularly contorts his "principles" for perceived personal benefit. In this case, we've quickly gone from regularly advocacy of crazy transit proposals to suddenly arguing that a highway proposal 20 km the core will cure traffic. All because, there's a small chance that some day he might save 15 mins bypassing Ottawa.

[Harley613]

Originally Posted by phil235

Are you arguing that a ring road will limit sprawl? Do you have a single example of when that has been the case? (The 407 that you mention is a great example of the opposite.)

The idea that ring roads are the way of the future or that big cities can only be built that way is pretty discouraging.

The 407 is the furthest thing possible from a functional ring road. That's a rich person's bypass around the plebeians. It has zero relevance in any discussion about an Ottawa ring road.

[Truenorth00]

Hands up which of you folks is going to drive down the 416, through Kars and Metcalfe, then back up the 417 to get from Kanata to Orleans.



This is not a plan for a reliever ring road. It's a plan to get you from Perth to Embrun. What exactly does this do for actual Ottawa residents? Like I said earlier, this is like arguing that building a highway through Newmarket will solve traffic on the 401 in North York.

An actual ring road would come down from Stittsville and go through Manotick and Greely, and sweep up through Navan towards Rockland. And even that wouldn't really be justifiable. But it is better than a driving a quarter of the way down the 416 towards the 401 to get to a bypass.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Harley613

The 407 is the furthest thing possible from a functional ring road. That's a rich person's bypass around the plebeians. It has zero relevance in any discussion about an Ottawa ring road.

And yet it caused a ton of sprawl. Lots of development up there with normalization of the costs of the 407. Questionable vision for Ottawa.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by Harley613

The 407 is the furthest thing possible from a functional ring road. That's a rich person's bypass around the plebeians. It has zero relevance in any discussion about an Ottawa ring road.

The 407 is not functional why exactly? Because it has tolls? Multiple people here have suggested that the Ottawa bypass would also be tolled.

The 407 is relevant because it has driven a tonne of sprawl, much like every other ring road everywhere, including an Ottawa bypass.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by phil235

Are you arguing that a ring road will limit sprawl? Do you have a single example of when that has been the case? (The 407 that you mention is a great example of the opposite.)

No.
Sprawl will happen regardless of a bypass. However, if there is a good master plan in the city, it could be used to fill in growth inside of it.

Originally Posted by phil235

The idea that ring roads are the way of the future or that big cities can only be built that way is pretty discouraging.

If the city does not have a reliable transit system, and it doesn't; a ring road is the only other option.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This bypass is 20+ km south of the 417. The 407 is less than 10 km north of the 401 in much of the GTA. And even then, on a lot of trips Google/Waze will not send you up to the 407 unless you're going from one of the GTA to another.

Toronto has 2 bypasses. The 401 bypasses the Gardiner/DVP, and the 407 bypasses the 401. They are each about 10km away from each other. If the bypass went through the green belt, it would be within 10km of the 417.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Also, tens of billions to expand the O-Train is wrong. Stage 3 is $5-6B. And that's probably the limit of current expansion plans for at least 30-40 years. As it stands, after Stage 2, something like 80% of Ottawa's population will be within 5 km of an O-Train station. That is substantial coverage for a city that had a toy rail line of a handful of stops a decade ago.

I am not talking of what is planned, but what is actually needed to affect congestion. That means more than phase 3. The fact you have limited your views to phase 3means you are not actually looking to reduce congestion, but just want what is planned built. Phase 3 will still leave out some neighbourhoods and it still will not have real RT to Gatineau.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

When you use words like "tens of billions" do you even understand what that means? Even GO RER is not "tens of billions". It's something like $12B. Tens of billions in Ottawa would put a subway under literally every major avenue.

Does the Ottawa area have any commuter service of any sort outside of the city? What would it cost to get that up and running? What would it cost for it to be running faster than driving? For the most part,most GO train routes are faster than driving during the rush times. That is where the 10s of billions would be.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm not that vantage point in Sudbury affords real insight into Ottawa's transport issues. But it does explain why you think Ottawa taxpayers should prioritize a bypass that does almost nothing for them.

You are assuming I think this highway should be paid for by just the taxpayers of Ottawa. Provincial highways aren't funded that way. Did you not know that?

Originally Posted by Harley613

The 407 is the furthest thing possible from a functional ring road. That's a rich person's bypass around the plebeians. It has zero relevance in any discussion about an Ottawa ring road.

I never knew I was rich. What you really mean is it is not a good commuter route due to costs. To that, I agree. It is great for people who are going through the city, but do not plan to stop in the city, which is what I pointed out about this bypass.

Originally Posted by phil235

The 407 is not functional why exactly? Because it has tolls? Multiple people here have suggested that the Ottawa bypass would also be tolled.

The 407 is relevant because it has driven a tonne of sprawl, much like every other ring road everywhere, including an Ottawa bypass.

The problem is that the 407 is in multiple municipalities. The Ottawa bypass could be placed entirely within Ottawa, and if the city planners do it right, they could force density, and prevent sprawl. The ring roads did not create sprawl, bad planning and zoning did.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I never knew I was rich. What you really mean is it is not a good commuter route due to costs. To that, I agree. It is great for people who are going through the city, but do not plan to stop in the city, which is what I pointed out about this bypass.

See Harley? This ain't about helping you.

Thankfully, this is exactly why this pipe dream will never be built. I imagine voters in Kanata and Barrhaven would be quite pissed at any government that decided connecting Perth to Embrun was priority over them getting higher order transit. We can finally end discussion on this idea.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

See Harley? This ain't about helping you.

Thankfully, this is exactly why this pipe dream will never be built. I imagine voters in Kanata and Barrhaven would be quite pissed at any government that decided connecting Perth to Embrun was priority over them getting higher order transit. We can finally end discussion on this idea.

If it is tolled, it is not to help the poor.
Should it be tolled?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I am not talking of what is planned, but what is actually needed to affect congestion. That means more than phase 3. The fact you have limited your views to phase 3means you are not actually looking to reduce congestion, but just want what is planned built. Phase 3 will still leave out some neighbourhoods and it still will not have real RT to Gatineau.

If there's no need to limit ourselves then we really should be talking about tunneled Maglev. It's really important to get from Carp to Limoges in 5 mins. There's definitely a marginal commuter in Ottawa who needs this. Let's discuss.....

[phil235]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

The problem is that the 407 is in multiple municipalities. The Ottawa bypass could be placed entirely within Ottawa, and if the city planners do it right, they could force density, and prevent sprawl.

I ask again - do you have any examples of this actually happening in real life? Otherwise it seems like a big gamble.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by phil235

I ask again - do you have any examples of this actually happening in real life? Otherwise it seems like a big gamble.

I hear the Ford government is doing an amazing job stopping sprawl on the Hwy 413 proposal.

Oh wait....

I find it hard to believe that people believe that a government would build or allow a billion dollar highway and then not allow development along it. People can't actually be this gullible.

It's also pretty ridiculous because most of Ottawa, including inside in the Greenbelt is basically the density of the 905 (or even less). So what's the need to open up lands 20 km away? Is there some danger we're going to run out of land in Carp, Rockland, Embrun etc to build fugly subdivisions?

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

If there's no need to limit ourselves then we really should be talking about tunneled Maglev. It's really important to get from Carp to Limoges in 5 mins. There's definitely a marginal commuter in Ottawa who needs this. Let's discuss.....

Well, HSR to Ottawa should be built instead of just HFR...

Originally Posted by phil235

I ask again - do you have any examples of this actually happening in real life? Otherwise it seems like a big gamble.

Sadly, it will be one big gamble. Maybe it could be pushed that it get built by the province on condition of a master plan to prevent sprawl.

[roger1818]

Mods: can we please have this thread tagged as “Fantasy?” I am not aware of any official proposal to build a bypass in Ottawa.