Development Rumours

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

Not a rumour but seems to fit here right now... AllNS reporting this morning that Armour Group is about to start construction on a new office building in Burnside...not downtown and they are working on an addition to an office building in Bedford also not downtown. In spite of having all of these new beautiful land lots in the Cogswell District there's no easy way to get to them. It's likely the Cogswell land lots have a reduced value due to their relative isolation from major population centres due to lack of road/bridge infrastructure and reasonable transit options.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Arrdeeharharharbour

It's likely the Cogswell land lots have a reduced value due to their relative isolation from major population centres due to lack of road/bridge infrastructure and reasonable transit options.

I would bet almost any amount of money against this.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Arrdeeharharharbour

Their business plan appears to have you get intoxicated at their bars, eat at their restaurants and sleep at their hotels before you head home. It's a good plan. They don't see residents of the peninsula as their sole market.

I wonder if those event-based areas can really work well though. They will have very spiky demand for things like restaurant meals or hotel rooms, and the whole area will be controlled by the developer so it'll likely have a mall-like chain feel. I would guess that there will be times the area will be too busy and some people will have to wait a lot or travel quite far, or it will be dead because nothing will be going on. I guess it can be a bit of an overflow airport hotel area as well, and a recreational spot for the Enfield area, which isn't really all that many people.

The car infrastructure is likely to get congested too. I find there is an attitude in NS that if you have a highway exit for something you have solved transportation. This is far from true for a large stadium, and large events where most people are leaving in a private vehicle can be far more miserable than pedestrian crowds of a similar scale.

[OldDartmouthMark]

I don’t really get all the ruffled feathers over the airport stadium idea. We’ve been discussing a stadium here on SSP for what, 10 years or longer? We’ve discussed sites ad nauseam only to watch the site get redeveloped for something else, or not have much hope of happening. Like Shannon Park, Cogswell, the Canada Post site (which is still in use), even Dartmouth Crossing (it’s too far and car-oriented!!). At last count none of them have worked out. Zero, unless you call the soccer ‘stadium’ on the Wanderers grounds (which has been great for small market minor league soccer, don’t get me wrong) the venue that we were hoping for.

So here we have a private group who wants to invest their money (and take all the financial risk) to build a stadium and entertainment centre by the airport and we’re upset by that? Sure it doesn’t stand up to our urban ‘desires’ but at least here’s a chance to actually get a CFL team in Halifax, have a stadium for other uses as well (i.e. concerts and their noise concerns that are away from population centres, etc.), have other facilities available to people who don’t live downtown, etc.

No LRT because of lack of ROWs or whatever? The City is really good at buses, so there’s that. Maybe the build it and they will come might be the tipping point for a serious LRT discussion, who knows? The lack of transit options and terrible traffic situation would make a downtown site one of frustration for everyone except those lucky enough to live downtown, if it were even possible to build a stadium there. We’re out of space downtown, except to build “up”.

So… if a private group thinks they can get it done, and feels that they can attract a CFL team to Halifax, I fail to see it as a problem. An entertainment district with performance venues, restaurants, bars and hotels? Great! Anybody try to get a hotel downtown lately? It’s difficult to find rooms and the prices have gone thru the roof (been there done that recently, in November actually… summer is a more intense version of that). So if people who aren’t urban dwellers want to drive somewhere, have a place to park their car while they attend an event, have a meal or a drink, crash at a hotel afterwards and head back home the next day, then all the better. I think there’s a market for it, and the downtown is already at overcapacity so it won’t take anything away from DT.

Take a deep breath. This type of development is needed and will be a plus for the area, even if it’s not exactly what ‘you’ would like… others will. At least this actually sounds like it has a chance of happening.

And if it fails… we’re not the ones taking the risk. A win-win IMHO.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by LikesBikes

I don't get the point of having sporting complexes out in the middle of nowhere. Who wants to drive 30 minutes+ after a match when you're tired, intoxicated, and/or might want to do something afterwards. The best stadiums/complexes are in dense environments.

These development folks are thinking about the other way. Other Atlantic Canadians see the Halifax area as the regions "City" but have fits of anxiety actually trying to get to the peninsula or Bayers Lake or the Crossing parks. The Province recently opened an offsite medical service center in Bayers lake to save folks the trip to Robie street.

In my travels around the region I have heard that many rural Nova Scotians only know two locations in Halifax, the IWK and the superior Courthouse for obviously positive and then negative reasons. Attending a concert or CFL game at the airport actually takes half an hour of travelling OFF a non Halifax residents trip to the event. If it gets built then there is a built in market for a rapid transit choice to the Hotels and bars in Downtown Halifax. Park your car at the stadium, stay and party downtown.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

If it gets built then there is a built in market for a rapid transit choice to the Hotels and bars in Downtown Halifax. Park your car at the stadium, stay and party downtown.

A rapid-shuttle into downtown after events would make more sense than trying to create some kind of blank-slate post-game district out by the airport, which would--and I don't say this to be negative--definitely fail.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

In my travels around the region I have heard that many rural Nova Scotians only know two locations in Halifax, the IWK and the superior Courthouse for obviously positive and then negative reasons. Attending a concert or CFL game at the airport actually takes half an hour of travelling OFF a non Halifax residents trip to the event. If it gets built then there is a built in market for a rapid transit choice to the Hotels and bars in Downtown Halifax. Park your car at the stadium, stay and party downtown.

But, HRM is already around half of the provincial population (with well over half of the income in HRM), and some of those rural NSians live far away, like in Cape Breton, so it cutting off 30 minutes doesn't make a huge difference to them. A Halifax resident is likely going to go to a lot more events at a Halifax stadium than a Sydney resident. I think a place like Shannon Park was a much better trade-off.

I think this preoccupation with rural people visiting the city is mostly a political distortion that exists because there is a government made up of relatively older and more rural individuals that doesn't closely reflect the current state of the province. And I don't want to be mean but some people keep repeating the same tropes about exurban development dominating that just aren't true and have been clearly refuted with data repeatedly yet refuse to adjust their view. I don't find that urban discussions in other places revolve around rural and exurban residents in the same way. It is very weird how many people think of Halifax as a kind of rural service stop.

I'm not mad about it, and this proposal might be better than nothing given how badly the municipality, province, and earlier promoters dropped the ball, but the drawbacks are objective and clear. A site plan was shared on Twitter and it looks pretty bad. It's basically a row of suburban development, a stadium, and a sea of parking next to a highway: https://x.com/mattdagley/status/2057531559402475957

[AnotherNorthender]

If it was HRM/government funding a stadium near the airport I would be opposed, but private money? Go for it. I'm still opposed to the location, but at this point, something is better than nothing. If it isn't financially viable, private sector won't build it. Although it will be inconvenient for residents in the city core to attend, i do see the attraction to those who live outside of the city. I went to a game at Gillete in Foxborough last year and the train service was minimal, but it did get the job done in getting us home from the game. We had to uber there since the service around games is very minimal - for whatever reason. I would hope HRM could provide a better transit service than the minimal operation Boston runs to their rural stadium.

Even as someone who grew up in Halifax and played university football in Canada, I'm not sold on Halifax having the appetite for a CFL team. Beyond 2-3 years I have concerns the novelty will run off, regardless of location of the stadium.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by AnotherNorthender

If it was HRM/government funding a stadium near the airport I would be opposed, but private money? Go for it. I'm still opposed to the location, but at this point, something is better than nothing.

I partly feel this way, but they’ve suggested 200 events per year. If a larger, newer facility poaches concerts and other events from Scotiabank Centre, I think that would be a bad thing for downtown (not a disaster or anything, just…a step back). So I do have a bit of concern around that.

As others noted, the preliminary design also looks terrible, and I too have some doubt that there will actually be enough interest to sustain a team. It’s borderline, and it really would rely on people from much farther afield driving into town to support the team. I’m skeptical that there are really that many Cape Bretoners or New Brunswickers or whatever keen to drive two, three, four hours to watch a football game.

[someone123]

Article: https://www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/hal...tanfield-airport-aeorotech-business-park

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I partly feel this way, but they’ve suggested 200 events per year. If a larger, newer facility poaches concerts and other events from Scotiabank Centre, I think that would be a bad thing for downtown (not a disaster or anything, just…a step back). So I do have a bit of concern around that.

Yeah, this is a good example of the absurdity of the political culture in Halifax and NS. People are obsessed with "not spending public dollars", but the government does own, operate, and built arenas and hockey-related infrastructure and that's pretty uncontroversial. The province just finished spending public dollars for the collector road and highway connection that provides access that enables this development, and there will have to be discussions with public utilities about power, water, and sewage services. Much of the cost sensitivity isn't due to a lack of economic capacity or growth but it is just because of historical decisions to cap assessments for some of the wealthiest people and then fund certain kinds of infrastructure through property taxes.

We have already covered the pathology around Halifax regional infrastructure and amenities being framed in terms of rural NS and a lot of the poor logic that goes with it. It culminates in absurdities like people posting about LRT for Windsor, NS. It's just.. not good quality public discussion in a democratic society where public opinion shapes what happens. I don't think any one of these decisions is the end of the world but collectively they've made the city and province markedly worse than what would have been possible.

[worldlyhaligonian]

Originally Posted by someone123

Yeah, this is a good example of the absurdity of the political culture in Halifax and NS. People are obsessed with "not spending public dollars", but the government does own, operate, and built arenas and hockey-related infrastructure and that's pretty uncontroversial. The province just finished spending public dollars for the collector road and highway connection that provides access that enables this development, and there will have to be discussions with public utilities about power, water, and sewage services. Much of the cost sensitivity isn't due to a lack of economic capacity or growth but it is just because of historical decisions to cap assessments for some of the wealthiest people and then fund certain kinds of infrastructure through property taxes.

We have already covered the pathology around Halifax regional infrastructure and amenities being framed in terms of rural NS and a lot of the poor logic that goes with it. It culminates in absurdities like people posting about LRT for Windsor, NS. It's just.. not good quality public discussion in a democratic society where public opinion shapes what happens. I don't think any one of these decisions is the end of the world but collectively they've made the city and province markedly worse than what would have been possible.

Remember when the obstructionists were trying to block the Nova Centre and used "nobody goes to events anymore" as their excuse.

NS is a wild place.

[OldDartmouthMark]

I agree that these conversations usually go in strange directions. Like it surely will fail, but I hope it doesn’t poach too many events from the Metro…errr… Scotiabank (money from the private sector, btw) Centre. Well if it will surely fail, then why are we worrying about it? If we want to be more forensic about it, then there probably aren’t many events that a 25,000 seat outdoor stadium is going to steal from a 10,000 ish seat indoor arena. If anything it would host events that wouldn’t happen in Halifax otherwise.

As far as public vs private money goes, I don’t think all of the discussion is uniquely Nova Scotian, nor necessarily as backwater as some posters want to portray. If you recall the previous stadium discussions, there was a lot of unease around the use of public money to help fund a private, profit-based organization, a CFL team in this case. IIRC, this was a factor in why it failed in the first place, and partially why there is no stadium in Shannon Park. It was complicated and there was sentiment that public land and money should be put towards housing, not professional sports. So naturally, some of us believe that if it is funded privately, a lot of the complications should be reduced. As far as infrastructure is involved, do we have data on what percentage will be paid by the government? Thing is, this infrastructure will often be used for other purposes as well, and it wouldn’t be any different if a business that people approved of more were to locate there, like an aerospace facility, etc. If the stadium fails, then the infrastructure is still usable for the next purpose, in other words business as usual.

Public money on facilities that are to be used for youth and amateur sports, like arenas and soccer fields for example, is common in Canada, and actually makes it a nice place to live while helping to promote healthier and more active lifestyles. Not the same as a public funded entertainment district. I’m not sure why people think that would be strange or unreasonable.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by someone123

Much of the cost sensitivity isn't due to a lack of economic capacity or growth but it is just because of historical decisions to cap assessments for some of the wealthiest people and then fund certain kinds of infrastructure through property taxes.

Assessment caps (known otherwise as homestead exemptions) are hardly unique to NS and exist in many places that saw big jumps in property values well beyond the usual rates due to an overheated market, such as in parts of California but in many others as well. Here they first occurred along the coastline when values of those properties skyrocketed once outside capital discovered they would be valuable things to buy. Someone living in what started out as a turn of the century fishing shack on the oceanside were taxed out of their home. This is no different when the prices of houses in parts of HRM doubled or tripled once the immigration-fueled population explosion happened here. As I'm sure you know, it does not affect the total revenue of HRM, it just changes the distribution of who has to provide it. If you bought a million-dollar property on the coast, your neighbor who has owned their property next door for all their life pays much less in taxes than you do for reasons of not wanting the longtime residents forced out of their home because of excessive taxation. But the municipality's ravenous hunger for revenue is unaffected as those who can afford to feed it are now on the hook to do so. This year's debacle during the HRM budget process shows just how out of control our Council and municipal bureaucracy is when it comes to spending. They only know how to move that in one direction and make no attempt to curb its growth. Capital/infrastructure projects are still funded by bond issues, not operating revenue and so are largely unaffected.

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I would bet almost any amount of money against this.

I'm not 100% sold on the idea either but more wanted to make the point that isolation is about perspective and relative to where target audience is located. I did a quick google:

Land Value by A.J. Forsythe, on Flickr

Halifax has the lowest office vacancy rate of major cities in Canada. I'd love to see a tall office tower in the Cogswell District but developers are choosing to build offices elsewhere.

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

Originally Posted by someone123

I wonder if those event-based areas can really work well though. They will have very spiky demand for things like restaurant meals or hotel rooms, and the whole area will be controlled by the developer so it'll likely have a mall-like chain feel. I would guess that there will be times the area will be too busy and some people will have to wait a lot or travel quite far, or it will be dead because nothing will be going on. I guess it can be a bit of an overflow airport hotel area as well, and a recreational spot for the Enfield area, which isn't really all that many people.

The car infrastructure is likely to get congested too. I find there is an attitude in NS that if you have a highway exit for something you have solved transportation. This is far from true for a large stadium, and large events where most people are leaving in a private vehicle can be far more miserable than pedestrian crowds of a similar scale.

Missing from most media reports is that Clayton/Marchand plan to build 8000 homes on the site which could yield a population similar to Truro. If this is approved the city would be nuts not to start planning/assembling land for LRT. If this wouldn't be sufficient impetus I don't know what would be.

[terrynorthend]

From 3 Down Nation
Quote: "Ridgehaven Holdings LLC is seeking a local owner for the team, permission from the government, $500 million in equity, and $1 billion in debt financing. According to the slide deck obtained by allNovaScotia.com, JPMorgan Chase is reportedly on board to provide capital for the stadium’s construction."
The part that I'm worried about, and causing me doubts, is the $500 million in equity. Are they looking for someone(s) to pony that up? What does that mean exactly? I'm not a real estate finance guy so I don't know how this works.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

Assessment caps (known otherwise as homestead exemptions) are hardly unique to NS and exist in many places that saw big jumps in property values well beyond the usual rates due to an overheated market, such as in parts of California but in many others as well. Here they first occurred along the coastline when values of those properties skyrocketed once outside capital discovered they would be valuable things to buy. Someone living in what started out as a turn of the century fishing shack on the oceanside were taxed out of their home. This is no different when the prices of houses in parts of HRM doubled or tripled once the immigration-fueled population explosion happened here. As I'm sure you know, it does not affect the total revenue of HRM, it just changes the distribution of who has to provide it. If you bought a million-dollar property on the coast, your neighbor who has owned their property next door for all their life pays much less in taxes than you do for reasons of not wanting the longtime residents forced out of their home because of excessive taxation. But the municipality's ravenous hunger for revenue is unaffected as those who can afford to feed it are now on the hook to do so. This year's debacle during the HRM budget process shows just how out of control our Council and municipal bureaucracy is when it comes to spending. They only know how to move that in one direction and make no attempt to curb its growth. Capital/infrastructure projects are still funded by bond issues, not operating revenue and so are largely unaffected.

That was well-explained, Keith. Thanks for posting this.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Arrdeeharharharbour

Missing from most media reports is that Clayton/Marchand plan to build 8000 homes on the site which could yield a population similar to Truro. If this is approved the city would be nuts not to start planning/assembling land for LRT. If this wouldn't be sufficient impetus I don't know what would be.

Clayton Park and Bedford West were built and probably have somewhere in the 100,000 person range now, yet didn't spur on LRT planning or construction. The province's main answer to this is to expand the 102 corridor.

This sounds like an example of leap frog sprawl that is harder to serve by transit and results in people driving longer distances. Maybe provincial planning will change but so far we haven't seen a lot of evidence of that.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

Assessment caps (known otherwise as homestead exemptions) are hardly unique to NS and exist in many places that saw big jumps in property values well beyond the usual rates due to an overheated market, such as in parts of California but in many others as well. Here they first occurred along the coastline when values of those properties skyrocketed once outside capital discovered they would be valuable things to buy. Someone living in what started out as a turn of the century fishing shack on the oceanside were taxed out of their home. This is no different when the prices of houses in parts of HRM doubled or tripled once the immigration-fueled population explosion happened here. As I'm sure you know, it does not affect the total revenue of HRM, it just changes the distribution of who has to provide it. If you bought a million-dollar property on the coast, your neighbor who has owned their property next door for all their life pays much less in taxes than you do for reasons of not wanting the longtime residents forced out of their home because of excessive taxation. But the municipality's ravenous hunger for revenue is unaffected as those who can afford to feed it are now on the hook to do so. This year's debacle during the HRM budget process shows just how out of control our Council and municipal bureaucracy is when it comes to spending. They only know how to move that in one direction and make no attempt to curb its growth. Capital/infrastructure projects are still funded by bond issues, not operating revenue and so are largely unaffected.

We always hear about grandma in the fishing shack but actually the biggest winners of assessment caps are high value homes owned by wealthy folks, while the losers are relatively less wealthy younger people who are buying into the market.

The argument behind it doesn't really make sense as HRM can adjust the mill rate. If every home goes up by 2x then the rate can drop to 0.5x and there is no actual tax impact. Instead what we have is a system of winners and losers and so the mill rate cannot be adjusted in this way, and some people's bills are much higher than others for the same services.

Another problem is that this system discourages people from moving, so it's often not great even for the seniors whose properties might not suit their needs as retired empty nesters, and it gums up the entire property market and "ladder".