Tucson Development Thread

[Patrick S]

Originally Posted by ppdd

You make some good points, certainly, and all those factors can offset the challenge; it may come down to how quickly the employment will need to scale to peak. We have had extreme challenges filling 1000 call center jobs, and jobs with skills and qualification are even harder. 6500 jobs is a huge challenge - but workforce supply will be an issue in any city, so maybe it will be less of a problem than it seems. Many jobs will have to be brought in - maybe the Mexico connection will be able to offset...

I don't think there's really a template for incentives available to this type of project. Even if they get $100 million in incentives, that's not big part of a project this size. There are so my unusual requirement for this project, it's hard to predict what will be deemed critical for Tesla. I still don't think this project will end up in Tucson, but it's hard to see where it will land on the shortlist they've floated.

Also, I can assure you that TREO knew about this project long before you did.

I totally agree that the city and TREO knew about this project long before any of us did. The city has already submitted their proposal to Tesla. That's not something you slap together. It takes months to work on, especially if you want to get taken seriously. I'm hoping when a company wants to spend $5 Billion and employ 6,500 people with high-paying jobs, you want to get taken seriously.

I do disagree that there aren't many other favorable sites on the short-list provided by Tesla. I don't know the exact cities being mentioned in the 4 states being considered, but there are many areas this plant could land in. Las Vegas and Phoenix would both be big cities with good access to Southern California. Reno would be a smaller city, but with great access to Northern California (both Sacramento and the San Francisco Bay area which has some great universities - Stanford and UC Berkley at the top of that list). One could easily see Texas getting this plant - whether it be the Dallas Metroplex, Houston, Austin, or even San Antonio. I'd say El Paso is a much more unlikely place. Austin, for example, has a large and major university (U of Texas) and has a growing hi-tech cluster of core businesses. Plus Texas is more centrally located and provides better access to the Midwest and East Coast, the Southern US, as well as the West Coast.

[ppdd]

Originally Posted by Patrick S

I do disagree that there aren't many other favorable sites on the short-list provided by Tesla. I don't know the exact cities being mentioned in the 4 states being considered, but there are many areas this plant could land in. Las Vegas and Phoenix would both be big cities with good access to Southern California. Reno would be a smaller city, but with great access to Northern California (both Sacramento and the San Francisco Bay area which has some great universities - Stanford and UC Berkley at the top of that list). One could easily see Texas getting this plant - whether it be the Dallas Metroplex, Houston, Austin, or even San Antonio. I'd say El Paso is a much more unlikely place. Austin, for example, has a large and major university (U of Texas) and has a growing hi-tech cluster of core businesses. Plus Texas is more centrally located and provides better access to the Midwest and East Coast, the Southern US, as well as the West Coast.

I wasn't saying that there weren't favorable sites, I was saying that it's very hard to predict the factors that will be viewed most favorably, or the challenges that will be deemed manageable. This project is largely unprecedented due to the size and the particular nature of the company (Tesla).

[AustinBear]

Patrick, et. al.
I think there are some logistical points that must be made, that some people have mentioned before, but they bear repeating. yes, everyone talks about Phoenix probably having a better shot, and you could think that....Phoenix has bigger freeways, a bigger downtown, bigger Airport, bigger this, bigger that. What Phoenix doesn't have, within easy reach, is the available land to put a plant in like that, without it being located a god awful drive from that big downtown, or that big airport. Phoenix may have bigger freeways, but look at the amount of traffic on those freeways. It may have a bigger airport, but how much room does Sky Harbor have to expand?

That's the problem with being the big everything. You can only brag about that so much before someone brings up some uncomfortable details that you just can't gloss over.

Patrick, you mentioned Austin.....have you BEEN to Austin lately? I live there, and our traffic is monumentally shitty...and we've got more freeways than Tucson does. We're practically becoming Seattle where Rush Hour lasts all day. I've lived in Austin for 20 years, and I've seen the metro area add about a million people within that time frame.
Could we handle a plant for 6500 workers? Probably....Hell, Dell is headquartered here, and we've got 15000 employees or so, give or take. But again, our highway traffic is FUGLY, and that would be a major PITA for us to deal with, if you're looking at a manufacturing facility. the only possible place I could see us doing it is further out east, where we've got a tollway bypass for I-35, but traffic on I-35 still stinks to high heaven north of Austin or south of it. We've got another tollway that heads south and connects to I-10, but I've done the drive on I10 between there and Houston....and 10 sucks rocks.

Dallas and Houston are bigshots too, but their infrastructure issues are just as challenging if not moreso than Austins...and they've gotten so big, that a plant like this is going to have to be located out in the middle of sodomized egypt.

Just to get back at tucson, vs. Phoenix, vs. ABQ, vs. Vegas. vs. El Paso.

when I look at those other 4 cities, I see them not having, what Tucson does.
Tucson has the University of Arizona, one of the top research universities in the country. I haven't looked into great detail at ASU, or UNLV or UNM, or UTEP, but I can almost bet that Tucson graduates more geeks in far more diverse engineering and technical fields than the others.

The other thing that Tucson has is it's RAIL Infrastructure. Let some of the jackass naysayers who post on the Arizona Daily star about the inland Port of Tucson, but dangit guys, that's a huge plus for your city. Yeah Phoenix is just as close to pacific coast markets as Tucson is...but Tucson has the rail system, Phoenix does not, by comparison. i don't know what the infrastructure of El Pasos rail yards are like, but I suspect it is just a load of switching facilities, but nothing like what the Port of Tucson has. Tucson is closer to Mexico, and has the rail linkages to the Gulf Coast and the Pacific. Tucson has the physical space to put in a plant like that, on the SE side of town, and be closer to the airport and downtown in comparison to Phoenix.

As far as the workforce is concerned...I don't know if Tesla would immediately build a huge plant for 6500 employees, or if it would gradually phase that in. Forgive me, for not having read all the info about it's proposal.

but speaking as an outsider from Austin, I truly believe that Tucson has a great shot at this. I honestly wish you all the best, because Tucson really deserves and needs it. I love checking out this forum daily. Tucson has a special place in my heart.

[Patrick S]

Originally Posted by AustinBear

Patrick, et. al.
I think there are some logistical points that must be made, that some people have mentioned before, but they bear repeating. yes, everyone talks about Phoenix probably having a better shot, and you could think that....Phoenix has bigger freeways, a bigger downtown, bigger Airport, bigger this, bigger that. What Phoenix doesn't have, within easy reach, is the available land to put a plant in like that, without it being located a god awful drive from that big downtown, or that big airport. Phoenix may have bigger freeways, but look at the amount of traffic on those freeways. It may have a bigger airport, but how much room does Sky Harbor have to expand?

That's the problem with being the big everything. You can only brag about that so much before someone brings up some uncomfortable details that you just can't gloss over.

Patrick, you mentioned Austin.....have you BEEN to Austin lately? I live there, and our traffic is monumentally shitty...and we've got more freeways than Tucson does. We're practically becoming Seattle where Rush Hour lasts all day. I've lived in Austin for 20 years, and I've seen the metro area add about a million people within that time frame.
Could we handle a plant for 6500 workers? Probably....Hell, Dell is headquartered here, and we've got 15000 employees or so, give or take. But again, our highway traffic is FUGLY, and that would be a major PITA for us to deal with, if you're looking at a manufacturing facility. the only possible place I could see us doing it is further out east, where we've got a tollway bypass for I-35, but traffic on I-35 still stinks to high heaven north of Austin or south of it. We've got another tollway that heads south and connects to I-10, but I've done the drive on I10 between there and Houston....and 10 sucks rocks.

Dallas and Houston are bigshots too, but their infrastructure issues are just as challenging if not moreso than Austins...and they've gotten so big, that a plant like this is going to have to be located out in the middle of sodomized egypt.

Just to get back at tucson, vs. Phoenix, vs. ABQ, vs. Vegas. vs. El Paso.

when I look at those other 4 cities, I see them not having, what Tucson does.
Tucson has the University of Arizona, one of the top research universities in the country. I haven't looked into great detail at ASU, or UNLV or UNM, or UTEP, but I can almost bet that Tucson graduates more geeks in far more diverse engineering and technical fields than the others.

The other thing that Tucson has is it's RAIL Infrastructure. Let some of the jackass naysayers who post on the Arizona Daily star about the inland Port of Tucson, but dangit guys, that's a huge plus for your city. Yeah Phoenix is just as close to pacific coast markets as Tucson is...but Tucson has the rail system, Phoenix does not, by comparison. i don't know what the infrastructure of El Pasos rail yards are like, but I suspect it is just a load of switching facilities, but nothing like what the Port of Tucson has. Tucson is closer to Mexico, and has the rail linkages to the Gulf Coast and the Pacific. Tucson has the physical space to put in a plant like that, on the SE side of town, and be closer to the airport and downtown in comparison to Phoenix.

As far as the workforce is concerned...I don't know if Tesla would immediately build a huge plant for 6500 employees, or if it would gradually phase that in. Forgive me, for not having read all the info about it's proposal.

but speaking as an outsider from Austin, I truly believe that Tucson has a great shot at this. I honestly wish you all the best, because Tucson really deserves and needs it. I love checking out this forum daily. Tucson has a special place in my heart.

You make some very valid and interesting points. You talk about Sky Harbor Airport. When my father comes to visit me from northern Illinois he flies into Mesa Airport. Now, this is mainly because he lives in Rockford, which is about 90 miles west of Chicago and they have direct flights into Mesa (instead of having to drive to Chicago), but he always raves about the Mesa Airport and how much more convenient it is than Phoenix's Sky Harbor. As you mentioned, there isn't much room to expand Sky Harbor, and Mesa most likely would be the 2nd airport. But, this leaves out the western suburbs, which is the fastest growing part of the metro area. I would disagree with the idea there isn't much land to build such a huge plant in the Phoenix area, even close to the downtown area, but I think the bigger hinderance on that would be the cost. The same sized plot of land in Tucson would be way cheaper. I also agree that the U of A is the best of the universities you mentioned - UNLV, ASU, UTEP, UNM - as well as others you didn't mention (Nevada in Reno, NAU in Flagstaff, and NMSU in Las Cruces). I've never been to Austin (I've never been to Texas besides driving through the panhandle). I do know that it does have a major tech sector and the U of Texas though. You talk about the nightmare traffic there. Though freeways aren't the end-all-be-all of travel, they do help in some aspects, and Tucson is hurt, I think, by not having a cross-town or loop freeway/expressway. The best place for this factory would be the southeast side by I-10 and Houghton/Rita Ranch, or south of the airport (off I-19). Both of these do have good access to interstates, but the interstates near these places are both in need of major upgrades. I-19 is 2 lanes each direction by the airport and already needs to be at least 3 lanes in each direction. I-10 is also 2 lanes each direction out by Houghton and Rita Ranch, and this too already needs to be upgraded by at least a lane in each direction. The traffic on the surface streets in the city is all but unbearable at times. That said, there is quick access to Mexico, Texas and Southern California in Tucson - and this is just by interstate. Tucson certainly does have the rail capacity to handle this type of plant - though the same could be said for Pinal County, which has even more abundant and cheap land than Tucson. I hope Tucson gets this - it could be a game changer. The Bio-Park is looking to get tenants by expanding its focus, but I don't think they have the land for this plant. The U of A is definitely a major draw for this - and is a great research university. Tucson is a major center for making optics, planetary and space exploration, and is solar. Getting a plant like this would not only employ 6,500 people with high-paying, quality, jobs - it would diversify our economy even more and may inspire more companies to seriously look at our great city. I like that we've put ourselves out there. I hope we get rewarded. I think we've got more than a puncher's chance, but I don't think we have the best chance.

[Azstar]

One of the things all major employees consider is quality of life for their employees, and how easy it would be to attract high quality talent. SB1070, the anti-immigration bill, and SB1062 the gay discrimination bill passed by the Arizona legislature would certainly be a consideration affecting any Arizona location. Tesla will also send representatives to check out the locations. Have you seen the hobo-homeless camp surrounding Veinte de Agosto Park in the heart of downtown Tucson? It sends a message that Tucson is unwilling, or unable, to control, or deal with, the huge homeless population afflicting the city. I hope none of those will be factors in the decision, but I believe they will.

[southtucsonboy77]

Originally Posted by AustinBear

Patrick, et. al.
I think there are some logistical points that must be made, that some people have mentioned before, but they bear repeating. yes, everyone talks about Phoenix probably having a better shot, and you could think that....Phoenix has bigger freeways, a bigger downtown, bigger Airport, bigger this, bigger that. What Phoenix doesn't have, within easy reach, is the available land to put a plant in like that, without it being located a god awful drive from that big downtown, or that big airport. Phoenix may have bigger freeways, but look at the amount of traffic on those freeways. It may have a bigger airport, but how much room does Sky Harbor have to expand?

That's the problem with being the big everything. You can only brag about that so much before someone brings up some uncomfortable details that you just can't gloss over.

Patrick, you mentioned Austin.....have you BEEN to Austin lately? I live there, and our traffic is monumentally shitty...and we've got more freeways than Tucson does. We're practically becoming Seattle where Rush Hour lasts all day. I've lived in Austin for 20 years, and I've seen the metro area add about a million people within that time frame.
Could we handle a plant for 6500 workers? Probably....Hell, Dell is headquartered here, and we've got 15000 employees or so, give or take. But again, our highway traffic is FUGLY, and that would be a major PITA for us to deal with, if you're looking at a manufacturing facility. the only possible place I could see us doing it is further out east, where we've got a tollway bypass for I-35, but traffic on I-35 still stinks to high heaven north of Austin or south of it. We've got another tollway that heads south and connects to I-10, but I've done the drive on I10 between there and Houston....and 10 sucks rocks.

Dallas and Houston are bigshots too, but their infrastructure issues are just as challenging if not moreso than Austins...and they've gotten so big, that a plant like this is going to have to be located out in the middle of sodomized egypt.

Just to get back at tucson, vs. Phoenix, vs. ABQ, vs. Vegas. vs. El Paso.

when I look at those other 4 cities, I see them not having, what Tucson does.
Tucson has the University of Arizona, one of the top research universities in the country. I haven't looked into great detail at ASU, or UNLV or UNM, or UTEP, but I can almost bet that Tucson graduates more geeks in far more diverse engineering and technical fields than the others.

The other thing that Tucson has is it's RAIL Infrastructure. Let some of the jackass naysayers who post on the Arizona Daily star about the inland Port of Tucson, but dangit guys, that's a huge plus for your city. Yeah Phoenix is just as close to pacific coast markets as Tucson is...but Tucson has the rail system, Phoenix does not, by comparison. i don't know what the infrastructure of El Pasos rail yards are like, but I suspect it is just a load of switching facilities, but nothing like what the Port of Tucson has. Tucson is closer to Mexico, and has the rail linkages to the Gulf Coast and the Pacific. Tucson has the physical space to put in a plant like that, on the SE side of town, and be closer to the airport and downtown in comparison to Phoenix.

As far as the workforce is concerned...I don't know if Tesla would immediately build a huge plant for 6500 employees, or if it would gradually phase that in. Forgive me, for not having read all the info about it's proposal.

but speaking as an outsider from Austin, I truly believe that Tucson has a great shot at this. I honestly wish you all the best, because Tucson really deserves and needs it. I love checking out this forum daily. Tucson has a special place in my heart.

By nature of my job...I cannot say much when I post...but this post from AustinBear is a sentimental favorite of mine!

I was being synical about whether or not TREO knew about this opportunity before I inquired about the topic...a clearer comment would be I just truly hope their timing was strategic. Other than that, in general terms...if a site selector was evaluating what we were told through all the papers and news releases...in this peanut gallery's mind...Tucson is the place.

[southtucsonboy77]

Rio Nuevo took steps this week to help move along a potential downtown hotel and exhibition center.

The board voted unanimously Tuesday to have its attorney draft a plan where Rio Nuevo kicks in up to $855,000 to mitigate longstanding drainage issues at Allan Norville’s property near the Tucson Convention Center. The drainage project would also solve flooding issues on Rio Nuevo’s adjacent property.

Article link.

[farmerk]

Originally Posted by Azstar

One of the things all major employees consider is quality of life for their employees, and how easy it would be to attract high quality talent. SB1070, the anti-immigration bill, and SB1062 the gay discrimination bill passed by the Arizona legislature would certainly be a consideration affecting any Arizona location. Tesla will also send representatives to check out the locations. Have you seen the hobo-homeless camp surrounding Veinte de Agosto Park in the heart of downtown Tucson? It sends a message that Tucson is unwilling, or unable, to control, or deal with, the huge homeless population afflicting the city. I hope none of those will be factors in the decision, but I believe they will.

Good points. However, if Tesla reps would look much deeper, Tucson is the anti-Arizona. Tucson recently passed a bill recognizing a Cesar Chavez Day. COT made it known that it's pro-gay and pro-immigrant. There are homeless in EVERY city in the U.S.A. , unfortunately. Marana representative Al Melvin, voted for SB1062, certainly won't help Marana grab Tesla's gigafactory. And I'm very grateful un-Governor Brewer lives in Maricopa county.

Tucson has a real shot at this - it's already a real Solar City , has an int'l rail port, close proximity to Mexico ( big supplier for Tesla and Bolivia-lot's of lithium) and Long Beach ports (close to Tesla's would be biggest customer - China), lots of available space, top research UA, Tucson is pro-environment and despite some setbacks, Tucson's (population and pro-business culture) trajectory is upward, becoming more pro-urban (attract more young workers and entrepreneurs) and part of a mega-region ( Sun Corridor ) . Some cities who want the gigafactory are proposing this and that .... Tucson already has the goods.

Elon Musk has interest in sending military cargo in space and Mars exploration. Tucson is an astronomy and optics city. U of A is heavily involved with NASA not just in pure science put practical engineering (UT Austin? Nah). Raytheon assembles a quarter of the missiles and heavily involve in space aged missile technology. And there might be extra space at Davis Monthan if the A-10's retire. He'll feel right at home in the Old Pueblo.

Btw, Texas has tornadoes (one and only factory being destroyed by a tornado - not good). New Mexico and Nevada doesn't have the same caliber school as University of Arizona (you can always proposed a school for this and that ... UA has it). Phoenix has too much hate ... not good for immigrant Elon Musk who left apartheid South Africa because he couldn't stand forced military service beating up black South Africans.

Elon has until the end of this year to decide. Elon come to Tucson!

[azsunsurfer]

If Tesla really wanted to build a plant in Tucson, they might as well go a few miles south to either Magdalena or Nogales just for the reduced costs in labor.....not that much differs in its demographic make up.....

[Ritarancher]

Originally Posted by azsunsurfer

If Tesla really wanted to build a plant in Tucson, they might as well go a few miles south to either Magdalena or Nogales just for the reduced costs in labor.....not that much differs in its demographic make up.....

How ignorant. Let me tell you something. Yes, Magdalena and Nogales are not home to high-tech industries or world class universities, but they don't have an education system that we are privileged with here in the states. You've started that the demographics of Tucson aren't much different than Magdalena but they are very different. Tucson, for one is educated and Tucson is also a lot richer. The way you started makes it seem that race is responsible for the lack of education in Magdalena but that is not the case. Both Magdalena and Tucson have large Hispanic populations but just because people in Magdalena can't get access to a good education doesn't mean that all Hispanic people are less educated than other races. Your relying on a stereotype.
Here are the real facts; no race is superior our inferior to another race.Everybody is born equal regardless of their race, religion, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, and social class. Underneath us all is just flesh and bone. It's not 1950, join society.

[AustinBear]

Originally Posted by Azstar

One of the things all major employees consider is quality of life for their employees, and how easy it would be to attract high quality talent. SB1070, the anti-immigration bill, and SB1062 the gay discrimination bill passed by the Arizona legislature would certainly be a consideration affecting any Arizona location. Tesla will also send representatives to check out the locations. Have you seen the hobo-homeless camp surrounding Veinte de Agosto Park in the heart of downtown Tucson? It sends a message that Tucson is unwilling, or unable, to control, or deal with, the huge homeless population afflicting the city. I hope none of those will be factors in the decision, but I believe they will.

Azstar,
with all due respect, we've got a huge homeless population in Austin as well, but we haven't exactly been suffering with regards to attracting jobs here. People walking the streets with cardboard signs stating "Please help me", is practically a cottage industry here.

I think you're unfairly smacking Tucson down in terms of quality of life issues. Streets that need repair? Oh we've got that in spades out here, in Austin as well as elsewhere in Texas. I've driven Tucson's surface streets before, most recently around 2011. Not the nightmare scenario people love to complain about. I've seen worse, believe me.

I keep a close watch on what Tucson is doing right, where the mayor has worked aggressively to cut the numbers of homeless veterans down and get them taken care of.

I've seen how your streets are finally getting repaired and widened. It is slow going, but I know Proposition 409 had a successful outcome, so the problem is being fixed. You want to see an example of horrible street conditions? Come down to Corpus Christi Texas, where they put off their infrastructure needs for over 30 years. According to a news article I read in the Corpus Christi paper, 1/2 of their streets are past the point of needing simple maintenance to be fixed...they need to be completely torn up, and replaced...and the cost? Over 900 Million. And Corpus Christis metropolitan population is roughly 1/2 that of metro Tucsons. There's some perspective for you.

Every city has it's challenges, but I think of what Tucson is doing right...Street medians that are being landscaped, a committment to preserving your "washes" as wildlife habitat with walking trails for joggers, walkers and cyclists. Can Phoenix make that kind of a claim in terms of livability? Their CAP canals certainly don't count as "scenic", just strictly utilitarian. And even that is much nicer than the Concrete caverns that make up "River beds" throughout Los Angeles.
I think of that one thing alone, and that makes me think of Tucson as an "Austin" in the desert....where people can be close to nature within their own city. you better believe that's a HUGE quality of life issue in your favor.

the most impressive thing I've seen is how Tucson is committed to conserving it's water resources. I've specifically saved Youtube Videos from Tucson City News channel 12, about grey water recycling, and water recharge zones on the west side in the Avra Valley, and the Sweetwater Wetlands area. Pushing for digital water meters that will actually give the city real time data on water usage, and also with regards to catching leaks in it's infrastructure. That is incredibly innovative on the city's part, and you should be for damn sure proud of that. From the reports I've read, Tucsons water table has started to go up again...Tucson is securing water for it's future, that is not ENTIRELY dependant upon the colorado river and the CAP project. Tucson saw the writing on the wall for years, while Phoenix, and Las Vegas and most of California looked the other way.

If I were a business owner, I'd look at the things this city does right and say, "Tucson is doing the right things by it's people that will pay off in both the short term and the long term."

Does Tucson have it's challenges, most definitely? But has it been making changes for the better? Most certainly.

[cdsuofa]

Tucson is its own worst enemy when it comes to things like this. If they are showing serious interest in Tucson to develop this, chances are Tucson and/or County leadership will be the reason it doesn't happen. That's if history repeats itself of course which it tends to.

[southtucsonboy77]

Retention and expansion are also a big part of the Econ Dev game.

Here's a bunt: Tucson mining-tech company expands

A single: Electronics maker to hire 50 people for new Tucson plant

Hopefully Tesla will be our HOMERUN.

[farmerk]

Not a big fan of Cadence but I must say this photo op is a nice one

[kaneui]

With the initial Sun Link streetcar line to begin operations this summer, a map prepared in 2013 (apparently by state senator Steve Farley) shows proposed future streetcar extensions: the first legs going north to Tucson Mall and south to the airport, with future extensions east to Sabino Canyon and the PCC East campus, west to PCC West, northwest to PCC Northwest campus, and another spur south towards the airport. (Also note the possible commuter rail routes.)






For larger image: http://www.streetcarfriends.org/maps/

[farmerk]

Kaneui, I like the route passing through 6th st instead of Broadway Rd. Pima St or Grant Rd could use a route for that area. A Kolb route could be useful if more businesses setup shop in the SE.

[Locofresh55]

Originally Posted by kaneui

With the initial Sun Link streetcar line to begin operations this summer, a map prepared in 2013 (apparently by state senator Steve Farley) shows proposed future streetcar extensions: the first legs going north to Tucson Mall and south to the airport, with future extensions east to Sabino Canyon and the PCC East campus, west to PCC West, northwest to PCC Northwest campus, and another spur south towards the airport. (Also note the possible commuter rail routes.)






For larger image: http://www.streetcarfriends.org/maps/

I'm glad they are thinking about extensions because it would be a serious waste to just have the current 4 mile path. The one extension that I think should be considered is the Aviation hwy route to Golf Links. That would target the DM crowd and that line could be a special direct route with a terminus of that line at downtown and the other terminus being Golf links and Swan or Golf Link and Craycroft. I think the Swan gate would work better because of the wide curve near that intersection (plus, the Border Patrol building is there too). Having been stationed here at Yokota Air Base for 3 years now, I see the benefits of having train stations near by the base. Of course, Tucson is not Tokyo but to have the lines set up would be beneficial to give easy accessibility to the Air Force population. I know that the potential lies to downsize DM big time, but for the time being it is worth consideration.

[rpf]

Here's Steve Farley's similar light rail proposal from a decade ago:


I have also read that there are 3 officially proposed short-to-medium term streetcar route expansions--I took a survey some time ago that listed them along with various BRT routes. I believe they were:

• Campbell to Limberlost to the Tohono Tadai transit center
• 6th/Broadway to El Con
• 6th Ave to (I think) the Laos Transit Center

I think those are all reasonable routes, although I think there was hope that El Con would evolve into something more transit friendly, instead of a collection of big box stores. A Broadway line needs to go further east to really make sense. What concerns me is that there was no dedicated right-of-way planned for any of it. No one is going to ride 5+ miles on the streetcar at 8 MPH unless they are already bus riders. The existing line only makes any sense because there are a lot of jobs, homes, and attractions within a mile or two of each other along it. A longer system has to have its own right-of-way or else it will just take too long to get anywhere.

I like Steve Farley and the work he has done for Tucson, but his new map worries me because it seems to be trying to cover way too much ground with rail, while not matching up with population and employment density very well, and at roughly 50 miles total, would cost $2-5 billion, possibly much more.

I love Tucson and I want to see more transit-oriented growth, but that much money isn't happening, and that much rail just doesn't make sense.

BTW, I'm a long time lurker, first time poster. Transit is my main area of interest; I voted for Steve's original plan in 2003 and I hold out hope that Tucson can get it together and move our transportation infrastructure forward in a smart way.

[builtittall]

Long time reader, first time poster.

I think Tucson would be heading the wrong direction if they tried to expand the streetcar as shown on the map. The current streetcar stock purchased by the city has a max speed of around 40-43 mph. That is the max speed, so typical running speeds will be lucky to reach the high 30's. For small distances in dense neighborhoods, streetcars are the best answers. For large cross town travel, Tucson should be much more focused on light rail. Light rail trains have a max speed of 60 mph which would be much more efficient and require a dedicated ROW.

The argument for using streetcars because the infrastructure is already in place should not be considered. Why pay for a system build-out that is inefficient?

[rpf]

Originally Posted by builtittall

Long time reader, first time poster.

I think Tucson would be heading the wrong direction if they tried to expand the streetcar as shown on the map. The current streetcar stock purchased by the city has a max speed of around 40-43 mph. That is the max speed, so typical running speeds will be lucky to reach the high 30's. For small distances in dense neighborhoods, streetcars are the best answers. For large cross town travel, Tucson should be much more focused on light rail. Light rail trains have a max speed of 60 mph which would be much more efficient and require a dedicated ROW.

The argument for using streetcars because the infrastructure is already in place should not be considered. Why pay for a system build-out that is inefficient?

I understand and agree with your assessment that streetcar expansions need to be faster than the initial 4-mile line opening this year. But I think using the same vehicles and station/power infrastructure throughout the system could save a significant amount of money and provide comparable speed, if the system expansions were done in a dedicated ROW. Consider this: Most urban rail systems rarely come close to their vehicles' top speeds during normal operations; if they do it's between very widely-spaced stops in grade-separated ROW. As the chart below shows, most North American urban rail systems average between about 20-25 MPH:



Tucson's streetcar vehicle has a top speed of 44 MPH and an acceleration/deceleration rate of 3 MPH per second. If the expansions to the system were compatible with the existing streetcar vehicles but built more to light rail specs (1-2 miles between stops, dedicated ROW) it could average about 30 MPH with stations a mile apart, and 36 MPH with stations 2 miles apart (these numbers account for a 20 second dwell time at each station). Even considering that other factors would slow things down somewhat, this would be on par with other cities' mass transit systems, and much, much faster than the initial streetcar line and our bus system.

Consider also that light rail trains are larger than streetcars, more expensive to buy, and cost more to operate per mile; we could afford to buy and run more trains, resulting in more frequent service for the same price, and more frequent service means shorter trip times and higher ridership. Many light rail systems in the U.S. have had budget cuts that have led to headways as long as 30 minutes between trains at off-peak times. What good is a fast train if you have to wait so long for it?

I am very concerned about plans to expand the system if it is all designed like the first 4 miles, because that would average closer to 7-8 MPH. But I think using the same vehicles in dedicated ROW could be a smart move.