Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[casper]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Obviously what people say they do in terms of leaving and what they actually end up doing are 2 different things.

That said, it does speak volumes about how people are dissatisfied with the life they have in Vancouver. Yes, the mountains are beautiful but that doesn't help you pay the rent, put food on the table, save for your retirement or your kids education, or enjoy the small perks of life like going out for dinner or a yearly vacation.

It's also very importantly, the demographics of those that are leaving AND not moving here in the first place. How does a young person who just came out of university/college survive in Vancouver? How can they plan for the future and enjoy the fruits of their education when they are spending 2/3rds of their income on a dumpy one bedroom in the burbs?

The Boomers can certainly afford to leave as they cash in their houses and move any where they want and spend 3 months of the year in Arizona to enjoy a REAL reprieve from winter but an economy does not rely on retirees but on a workforce and those, much to Vancouver's detriment, are the ones that are leaving.

I graduated from a university in Vancouver in the 90s. I left (and came back some 20 years later, for a short period to Vancouver but eventually Victoria). About half of my peers did the same. This is not new. Though it is likely harder now. The ones that stayed had strong family ties keeping them in Vancouver.

Vancouver is going to be like London, Paris or New York. You will likely raise a family in condo or apartment if you don't already have a single family home. Not great, but it is what it is.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

I graduated from a university in Vancouver in the 90s. I left (and came back some 20 years later, for a short period to Vancouver but eventually Victoria). About half of my peers did the same. This is not new. Though it is likely harder now. The ones that stayed had strong family ties keeping them in Vancouver.

Vancouver is going to be like London, Paris or New York. You will likely raise a family in condo or apartment if you don't already have a single family home. Not great, but it is what it is.

I mean you're right but London and especially New York all have salaries that support ground based housing if that's what you want. Paris has absolute world class public areas that make up for lack of private space.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I mean you're right but London and especially New York all have salaries that support ground based housing if that's what you want. Paris has absolute world class public areas that make up for lack of private space.

Agreed salaries in Vancouver are low relative to other cities we should be comparing with.

All for Vancouver building out the public areas that and public transit that it needs to compete with Paris.

I think the problem is at the lower end of the pay spectrum. We need people to work at Tim's and they need to have a way of surviving in Vancouver. Social housing is far more limited than what a city like that needs.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I mean you're right but London and especially New York all have salaries that support ground based housing if that's what you want. Paris has absolute world class public areas that make up for lack of private space.

Bingo. Vancouver doesn’t have anywhere near the incomes of New York or London. It’s not a financial centre, indeed the only financial crown it takes is in money laundering.

[whatnext]

So, maybe the problem isn't supply after all. Or at least supply at the prices gov't policies have driven the to.

Has the great Toronto condo boom finally hit a wall?
Condo market faces challenges as construction slows and sales plummet
Author of the article: Shantaé Campbell
Published Apr 23, 2024

Sales of new condos in Toronto plunged in the first quarter of 2024 as a rising inventory of unsold units and soaring construction costs put a damper on the once booming market.

A report from condominium research firm Urbanation this week showed sales of new condo units in The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) reaching levels reminiscent of the late 1990s in the first three months of the year, with just 1,461 new condo units sold. That marked a decline of 85 per cent from the sales peak recorded in the first quarter of 2022 and a 71 per cent drop from the 10-year first-quarter average.....

https://financialpost.com/real-estat...nally-hit-wall

[theman23]

Originally Posted by whatnext

So, maybe the problem isn't supply after all. Or at least supply at the prices gov't policies have driven the to.

Has the great Toronto condo boom finally hit a wall?
Condo market faces challenges as construction slows and sales plummet
Author of the article: Shantaé Campbell
Published Apr 23, 2024

Sales of new condos in Toronto plunged in the first quarter of 2024 as a rising inventory of unsold units and soaring construction costs put a damper on the once booming market.

A report from condominium research firm Urbanation this week showed sales of new condo units in The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) reaching levels reminiscent of the late 1990s in the first three months of the year, with just 1,461 new condo units sold. That marked a decline of 85 per cent from the sales peak recorded in the first quarter of 2022 and a 71 per cent drop from the 10-year first-quarter average.....

https://financialpost.com/real-estat...nally-hit-wall

Not really shocking that people can't afford to buy $1200/square foot shoe boxes in the 905 at 5% interest rates.

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

So, maybe the problem isn't supply after all. Or at least supply at the prices gov't policies have driven the to.

I think it is clear there is a supply problem. We need to more units to meet the our growing demands. We are not Japan that has a shrinking population.

There may be a second problem of affordability. However are we start to address the shortage of units, prices should moderate. That assumes the laws of supply and demand hold.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

I think it is clear there is a supply problem. We need to more units to meet the our growing demands. We are not Japan that has a shrinking population.

There may be a second problem of affordability. However are we start to address the shortage of units, prices should moderate. That assumes the laws of supply and demand hold.

If it is a supply problem then why are unsold units piling up in the country's biggest city and developers hitting the brakes on new projects?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If it is a supply problem then why are unsold units piling up in the country's biggest city and developers hitting the brakes on new projects?

Come on now. Do you think every economist and agency assessing a housing shortage are lying? And that international (and even domestic in some cases) students are living 15 to a house because we have plenty of supply?

There's a shortage at the price that people can afford. These developers are refusing to lower prices so their inventory is building up. If the buyer drought keeps up, they'll eventually lower prices sufficiently to move inventory.

Also, a big problem in Canada, as previously discussed, is the fact that our development sector is substantially dominated by non-public companies that land bank and have no incentive to actually contribute supply. They would rather build nothing than sell for lower profit. This is why taxes on undeveloped land are now being discussed. There needs to be some incentive to get them moving.

[urbandreamer]

Developers and their financial backers/banks control supply. Media, interest rates, government immigration and marketing departments control demand.

What's really needed: raise interest rates to 7-8% triggering investors to unload supply (developers/builders actually own a ton of supply, in addition to mom & pop investors, many who work in the industry.)

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If it is a supply problem then why are unsold units piling up in the country's biggest city and developers hitting the brakes on new projects?

In Vancouver developers want to build high end units with high end finishes to get top dollar.

Perhaps if buyers for those units dry up they will start building more modest units that they offload quickly.

Yes, we have a housing shortage. That is addressed by building more housing.

[urbandreamer]

We don't have a housing shortage. We have a shortage of common sense immigration.

It's 1996, and 1 bedroom 800sqft condos at King & Spadina were selling for $79000. It was city bloat, government immigration policy controlled by real estate lobbyists, builders & industry people, then herd investors who raised prices to unsustainable levels. A reset via 8%+ interest rates, an economic recession and decreased immigration solves your supply fallacy.

[Xelebes]

What is with the binary thinking? All are problems and all are problems that need to be fixed.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

What is with the binary thinking? All are problems and all are problems that need to be fixed.

Not true for everyone. There's a non-negligible chunk of Canada for whom expensive-real-estate-that-continues-to-climb is a feature rather than a bug.

Similarly, high gas prices are "a problem", except for Saudi Arabia and Fort McMurray. It's normal that not everyone will be in agreement on these things.

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by lio45

Not true for everyone. There's a non-negligible chunk of Canada for whom expensive-real-estate-that-continues-to-climb is a feature rather than a bug.

Similarly, high gas prices are "a problem", except for Saudi Arabia and Fort McMurray. It's normal that not everyone will be in agreement on these things.

Which is irrelevant to the point. Problems have benefactors and malefactors. It's why they are a problem.

[ssiguy]

We don't have a regular housing crisis based on supply & demand but rather a manufactured housing crisis brought about by successive gov't policies and particularly Trudeau.

Yes, thanks to Trudeau, getting ourselves out of hole he has dugs us into is going to cost money but not even close to the amount he is spending and all the money in the world is never going to build the number of houses that he says he will. Most of the problems could be cured rather quickly if Trudeau actually cared about the situation and make no mistake, he doesn't.

1} slashing our immigration intake by dropping TFW, family reunifications, students {except ESL} and refugees by 100% and immigrants by 50%.

2} ban all non-landed from owning any form of residential property and those that currently do must sell them within one year.

3} ban all businesses from owning homes/land zoned residential except where housing {ie real estate/rental companies} is their primary business via taxation. Give businesses 3 months to sell their properties and if not then they get a 5% sales tax applied and that rate goes up 5% every 3 months thereafter. Hundreds of thousands of homes would hit the market and they wouldn't be bought up by businesses to use as nothing more than a stock. It would also get rid of a lot of the money laundering.

4} A new limit on the number of homes one family unit can own such as 3 in one province and a total of 4 nationwide taking effect immediately.

5} No federal infrastructure funding for any new transit unless within a 6 block radius of the station area are zoned as high density and 50% of the homes built must be geared to low-middle income people thru either rentals or rent-to-own.

6} Provide grants, tax credits, and interest-free loans to MASSIVELY expand businesses that manufacture homes ie mobile and especially modulars so we are not at the mercy of developers who refuse to build anything that most people can afford. That would exponentially increase the number of low-rise homes we have under construction now. It takes less time to build a modular, less hours and hence workers to do it, and the factory can run 24/7. If Canada were to have all its homes manufactured via assembly, we could quadruple the number of townhomes/rowhomes/duplexes/lowrise apt/SFH that we produce now.

7} Ottawa gives away or leases at next to nothing all unnecessary lands within 30km of all metropolitan areas for affordable housing both rental and real estate.

NONE of these things would costs Ottawa a cent except #6 which would still be pennies on the dollar that Trudeau is going to be spending. This is something Trudeau could do with a few strokes of a pen but he won't because that would require him putting the good of the nation ahead of his financial backers.

[urbandreamer]

Breaking news: Trudeau is backed by the same lobbyists and corps as PP. Only a PPC vote is a valid response.

[MolsonExport]

I would never vote for Mad Max and his unmerry band of xenophobes.

[casper]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I would never vote for Mad Max and his unmerry band of xenophobes.

Thankfully the vast majority of Canadians agree.

If we talk fringe parties, what I find shocking is how poorly the Greens did relative to the PPC nationally.

I would have expected extreme green views to be far more popular in Canada to extreme xenophobic ideas.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

Thankfully the vast majority of Canadians agree.

If we talk fringe parties, what I find shocking is how poorly the Greens did relative to the PPC nationally.

I would have expected extreme green views to be far more popular in Canada to extreme xenophobic ideas.

I don't think the headline says extreme xenophobia is more popular than extreme green views. For one the Trudeau government is already implementing an extreme green platform. Purposely destroying our economy at the alter of climate change. I think we all see the undercurrent in the PPC but their actual platform was probably ahead of its time and is fairly mainstream at this point that we need a massive reduction in immigration. That is the only solution we will never build enough houses when we add a million people a year.

The PPC also benefitted from anti vaxxers more than anything.