Vancouver Real Estate 'Bubble' at 30-year Peak

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by misher

Sales have been going down quickly. Seems like they’ve now stopped which is a sign a mild recovery may be in the works.

Well, given that "Sales moved sideways, stuck at weakest levels on record with data going back to 1992" then it's only logical that at some point there will be a recovery from the worst in 27 years - unless they get even worse for ever and ever.

[whatnext]

If one looks at Steve Saretsky's graph, it's clear home sales have retreated back to around 2002 levels right before the foreign buying frenzy took off.

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If one looks at Steve Saretsky's graph, it's clear home sales have retreated back to around 2002 levels right before the foreign buying frenzy took off.

Source? All I see is that our economy collapsed and no Canadians were moving to BC until it recovered in 2002. Looks like international immigration has been slowly declining. Do you mean to say out of province Canadians are foreigners? That’s pretty unCanadian.

[misher]

1849 sold in April 2674 in May looks like things are picking up.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by misher

1849 sold in April 2674 in May looks like things are picking up.

May is more often than not the month with the most sales in a year, so you'd expect it to be higher than April, especially after the terrible April number. It's still the lowest May sales number since 2001 - and don't forget there are 200,000 more households living here now than in 2001.

We'll need to get to the fall, and look at the overall sales numbers for the spring and summer before it'll be clear whether things are 'picking up' or not.

[NetMapel]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Ah, I see. I'd say the differences between now and 2009 are: 1) emergency low interest rates have lost their power over an overextended market 2) there's no flood of Mainland Chinese money coming to bail out aging Boomers who didn't save for their retirement in the Okanagan.

For the record, I'm not a realtor, just someone who delights in the schadenfreude of real estate speculators getting burned.

The prices of homes here are indeed quite high and should go down a bit. However, please do be aware of all the Canadians who own their homes here too as well. I don't know what percentages of homeownership here are speculative and how many are lived in. But let's say 10-20% of all home ownership here are speculative, do you want to burn 80-90% of primary home owners here to spite that 10-20%? One should not take pleasure in a collapse of the housing price because I guarantee you that it affects the locals disproportionally more than any speculators. It is attitude like that that it really irks and saddens me when I feel like some people are just cheerleading for a collapse when it can really hurt the local economy, perhaps affect their own family members and friends too. I would imagine that the people who got hurt the most in the 2008 recessions are regular folks who defaulted on their mortgages. Banks just swoop in and foreclose on these people while speculators buy up properties at low prices. For the record, I'm a Canadian and a homeowner for a few years now after saving up money working. Do you want to see people like me get burnt? We are all here just working and trying to get by and building better lives for ourselves in a competitive global economy.

[misher]

Originally Posted by NetMapel

The prices of homes here are indeed quite high and should go down a bit. However, please do be aware of all the Canadians who own their homes here too as well. I don't know what percentages of homeownership here are speculative and how many are lived in. But let's say 10-20% of all home ownership here are speculative, do you want to burn 80-90% of primary home owners here to spite that 10-20%? One should not take pleasure in a collapse of the housing price because I guarantee you that it affects the locals disproportionally more than any speculators. It is attitude like that that it really irks and saddens me when I feel like some people are just cheerleading for a collapse when it can really hurt the local economy, perhaps affect their own family members and friends too. I would imagine that the people who got hurt the most in the 2008 recessions are regular folks who defaulted on their mortgages. Banks just swoop in and foreclose on these people while speculators buy up properties at low prices. For the record, I'm a Canadian and a homeowner for a few years now after saving up money working. Do you want to see people like me get burnt? We are all here just working and trying to get by and building better lives for ourselves in a competitive global economy.

Unfortunately most people are quite self centered and are cheering on measures to bankrupt Canadians like you while justifying it with excuses like you must be a speculator or a foreigner so they don’t look like asses. Until you sell your home for a huge loss you will continue to be the enemy. No one cares about the suffering of other Canadians, that it likely will kill the economy and unemploy many. All they care about is they get your home from you for pennies. In many cases they don’t even want to own a home they just want those who do to suffer.

In a way the argument that Canadians with wealth are selfish and should redistribute it has mutated and now the Canadians who own homes are now selfish and supposed to redistribute those.

We are increasingly moving towards a bastard form of communism.

[SpongeG]

Real estate downturn could have consequences for Coquitlam rental construction

Below-market and purpose-built rental units are often tied to market condo developments

Gary McKenna / Tri-City News
MAY 30, 2019


Townline confirmed to The Tri-City News this week that it would be temporarily postponing the sales launch of its Meridian project, a 38-storey highrise development located a block from Burquitlam Station.
Photograph By GARY MCKENNA

A downturn in the residential real estate market could jeopardize some of the purpose-built and below-market rental units awaiting construction in the city of Coquitlam.

Coun. Dennis Marsden told The Tri-City News that because many rental units are provided through density incentives, they may be delayed if developers start putting the brakes on some of their projects.

“The affordable housing and the purpose-built rental, which we have been really looking to have, are tied to market projects,” he said. “If there is a slowdown on the market project, it puts that rental component that we need in jeopardy.”

Marsden’s comments come after Townline announced it would be temporarily postponing the sales launch of its Meridian project in Burquitlam. The 38-storey highrise development, which is slated to be built a block from Burquitlam Station, includes 54 purpose-built and nine below-market rental units.

Chris Colbeck, vice-president of sales and marketing with Townline, told The News there has been a lot of interest in the 261-unit project but buyers are reluctant to make a commitment.

As a result, the company decided against moving the project to the pre-sale phase, Colbeck said, noting that a certain number of pre-sales are necessary to meet provincial regulations and lending requirements.

“When you put the brakes on the supply chain… what you get is an eventual supply crunch once the current inventories are absorbed, ultimately causing a run-up on market prices,” Colbeck said in an email. “This applies to both market condos and desperately needed purpose-built rental units.”

Townline’s situation mirrors what has been seen in many parts of the Lower Mainland, according to Michael Ferreira, a real estate consultant with Urban Analytics. His most recent report found the number of new condos and townhouses sold in Metro Vancouver during the first quarter of 2019 fell 56% compared to the same time period last year — and it’s the third lowest quarterly sales total since 2010.

...

As for how Beedie intends to move forward with its Safeway site project, Raffi said “time will tell.” Construction on the retail portion of the project is well underway and the company said it expects to begin building its east tower this summer. Marketing for the west tower will commence in the fall or winter, he said.

...

https://www.tricitynews.com/news/rea...ion-1.23838339

[Vin]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If one looks at Steve Saretsky's graph, it's clear home sales have retreated back to around 2002 levels right before the foreign buying frenzy took off.

2002 was also a time when BC was a "have-not" province, meaning we were so poor that the Federal government had to send surplus money this way.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Vin

2002 was also a time when BC was a "have-not" province, meaning we were so poor that the Federal government had to send surplus money this way.

Six of ten provinces receive equalization payments this year. Which has zero effect on the daily lives of their citizens.

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Six of ten provinces receive equalization payments this year. Which has zero effect on the daily lives of their citizens.

Yeah but the 10%+ unemployment rate needed to get us there might. People like to complain about housing but forget that the economy sucks in the provinces with cheaper housing. I’ll take expensive real estate over high unemployment any day. Likely most Canadians are jealous of us. We’re the definition of “first world problems”.

[Tfreder]

Originally Posted by misher

Yeah but the 10%+ unemployment rate needed to get us there might. People like to complain about housing but forget that the economy sucks in the provinces with cheaper housing. I’ll take expensive real estate over high unemployment any day. Likely most Canadians are jealous of us. We’re the definition of “first world problems”.

So by that logic, since Quebec has the second lowest unemployment rate in Canada, it should also have the second highest housing prices in Canada?

And I'm not even going to get started on your last few sentences. That's a prime example of why so many Canadians make fun of BC'ers.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Six of ten provinces receive equalization payments this year. Which has zero effect on the daily lives of their citizens.

So you rather we be a laggard? I see the trend worldwide: those that can't compete tend to blame the entire world for their own demise, close off their borders and think they are better off that way.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by Tfreder

So by that logic, since Quebec has the second lowest unemployment rate in Canada, it should also have the second highest housing prices in Canada?

And I'm not even going to get started on your last few sentences. That's a prime example of why so many Canadians make fun of BC'ers.

Quebec is still a "have-not" province, although the province had taken huge strides in improving its economy, as evident in the vibrancy of Montreal today, it still does not discount the fact that the rest of Canada has to chip in to enable it to maintain itself, and the fact that it still needs lots of foreign money: Chinese and European, to prop up its real estate, and in turn, its economy.

https://www.policyschool.ca/unpackin...ments-2018-19/

Before those other have-not provinces make fun of BC'ers, they need to remember where their current standard of living comes from.

[whatnext]

From today's Globe & Mail:

Vancouver home sales hit 19-year low as price decline continues

Housing sales have dropped to a 19-year low in Greater Vancouver as the market extends a streak of declining prices.

Sales volume in May fell 6.9 per cent compared with the same month in 2018, and slumped 22.9 per cent beneath the 10-year average for May, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said on Tuesday.

Last month’s 2,638 sales in the region for various housing types were the lowest for May since 2000, when only 2,059 properties changed hands in that month.

The residential benchmark price, an industry representation of the typical home sold in an area, in Greater Vancouver has declined for 12 consecutive months, hitting $1,006,400 last month, compared with a record-high of $1,094,000 in May 2018.

On Vancouver’s west side, the benchmark price for detached houses sold has tumbled $502,900 over the past year to $2,927,600.

Greater Vancouver’s condo segment began softening in mid-2018, including in the less-expensive suburbs. In Tsawwassen, for instance, the benchmark price for condos sold has fallen 8.5 per cent over the past year to $464,300...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...ine-continues/

[GenWhy?]

Land prices keep falling is good for developers (big and small) and the rental market and future "land banking"!

[misher]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Land prices keep falling is good for developers (big and small) and the rental market and future "land banking"!

Sales were up 44% in May and the market is showing signs of a recovery. We’ve likely passed the bottom of the market and are now on the incline. Look around vancouver and you’ll see lots of sold signs. Sales to listings ratio 20%+ for condos which is a sign of a strong market. Even houses at 14% which means prices won’t be decreasing anymore.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by misher

Sales were up 44% in May and the market is showing signs of a recovery. We’ve likely passed the bottom of the market and are now on the incline. Look around vancouver and you’ll see lots of sold signs.

Meanwhile, in the real world sales in May 2019 were down 6.9 per cent from May 2018.

REBGV say "Last month’s sales were 22.9 per cent below the 10-year May sales average and was the lowest total for the month since 2000."

"The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 14,685, a 30 per cent increase compared to May 2018".

And prices are still falling - year over year and from last month.

"The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential homes in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,006,400. This represents an 8.9 per cent decrease over May 2018, a 3.4 per cent decrease over the past six months, and a 0.4 per cent decrease compared to April 2019."

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Meanwhile, in the real world sales in May 2019 were down 6.9 per cent from May 2018.

REBGV say "Last month’s sales were 22.9 per cent below the 10-year May sales average and was the lowest total for the month since 2000."

"The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 14,685, a 30 per cent increase compared to May 2018".

And prices are still falling - year over year and from last month.

"The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential homes in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,006,400. This represents an 8.9 per cent decrease over May 2018, a 3.4 per cent decrease over the past six months, and a 0.4 per cent decrease compared to April 2019."

B-b-but wait, sales were up 44%! Sure it was just over April (which was dismal) and sales in May are always up over April, but it's something right....?

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

B-b-but wait, sales were up 44%! Sure it was just over April (which was dismal) and sales in May are always up over April, but it's something right....?

Sales were down 29.1% in April 2019 from April 2018.
Sales were down 6.9% in May 2019 from May 2018.

Seriously this is a massive increase from the trend of sales being down 40ish% from last year.