Canadian Foreign Policy & Affairs II

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by harls

Wouldn't put it past him to claim that ISIS is operating out of Ukraine.

And, on cue:

Russian President Vladimir Putin says all the attackers have been arrested, and that the suspects were trying to flee to Ukraine - Kyiv has described the claim as "absurd"

from BBC

[Truenorth00]

So @NATO released new defence spending data recently, including each ally's spending against the two NATO defence investment pledges: spending at least 2% of GDP on defence and spending 20% of that on defence on Equipment and related R&D. The new 🇨🇦 data is embarrassing

The revised estimates for 2023 for 🇨🇦 are 1.33% of GDP will be spent on @NationalDefence and 14.37% of that spent on Equipment and R&D. So 🇨🇦 is, yet again, falling short of both @NATO investment pledge targets. Nothing new there, we haven't since the Wales Summitt in 2014.

What is new, is that 🇨🇦 is now the *only* @NATO ally that isn't meeting either @NATO target. The attached info graphic plots allies against both targets. 🇨🇦 alone is in the quadrant of shame, meeting neither. (Denmark falls short on kit, but will hit 2% this year.)

https://twitter.com/DavePerryCGAI/st...Varf5C0PA&s=19

[Truenorth00]

• Video Link

[goodgrowth]

What do you think the Biden administration wants more? Ukraine to fight...or oil to stay under $100? Find out over the next 6 months...

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

What do you think the Biden administration wants more? Ukraine to fight...or oil to stay under $100? Find out over the next 6 months...

It would take a lot of coordination between the Saudis and Russians to drive oil to $100/bbl or for the Houthis to have some extraordinary successes. None of this is likely right now. I don't think Ukraine is impacting global oil prices that right now.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It would take a lot of coordination between the Saudis and Russians to drive oil to $100/bbl or for the Houthis to have some extraordinary successes. None of this is likely right now. I don't think Ukraine is impacting global oil prices that right now.

Both Saudis and Russians would love for a return to Trump so coordination is surely possible. Could be an October surprise where they don't see sustained losses but turn off the taps for a few weeks. Biden showing weakness doesn't decrease the chance of that happening though.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Both Saudis and Russians would love for a return to Trump so coordination is surely possible. Could be an October surprise where they don't see sustained losses but turn off the taps for a few weeks. Biden showing weakness doesn't decrease the chance of that happening though.

And every time they play games like that shale in the US and cleantech like EVs rebound. Russia may be driven by short term considerations. The Saudis aren't.

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It would take a lot of coordination between the Saudis and Russians to drive oil to $100/bbl or for the Houthis to have some extraordinary successes. None of this is likely right now. I don't think Ukraine is impacting global oil prices that right now.

I'm specifically referring to the Ukrainians striking Russian refineries....

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

I'm specifically referring to the Ukrainians striking Russian refineries....

That doesn't really impact the global prices of oil, as much as it impacts the price of refined fuels in Russia itself and the few markets they export to. The Russians would, however, love for gullible folks to believe that Ukrainian strikes will send global oil prices to the moon.

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That doesn't really impact the global prices of oil, as much as it impacts the price of refined fuels in Russia itself and the few markets they export to. The Russians would, however, love for gullible folks to believe that Ukrainian strikes will send global oil prices to the moon.

It's not a leap that hitting oil refineries is going to impact supply which will impact prices.

I'm not against it. It's good for Ukraine, bad for Russia, and ultimately more good for Canada than not.

And I'm not even speculating really..the Americans have already told Ukraine to stop which is why I posed the question:

US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries
https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-...7-cbdde122ac0c

[acottawa]

If the Americans want Ukraine to focus less on oil they should give them more weapons and let them use them against Russia. The Ukrainians would probably prefer to destroy airfields and bridges.

[whatnext]

There's an opinion piece in the Globe & Mail that gives some very compelling evidence that the Crocus City attack was a false flag operation:

Did the Kremlin enable the Moscow terrorist attack?
AMY KNIGHT
SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PUBLISHED YESTERDAY

Amy Knight’s new book, The Kremlin’s Noose: Putin’s Bitter Feud With The Oligarch Who Made Him Ruler of Russia, will appear next month.

The Kremlin had plenty of advance warning that the March 22 terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall concert venue, which left more than 140 dead, would occur. Several days earlier, Russia’s Security Council was reportedly told of a threat from the Islamic terrorist group ISIS-K, whose activities Russian intelligence agencies had been closely monitoring. On March 6, American intelligence warned Russian officials privately about ISIS-K, which later claimed responsibility for the assault....

....The circumstances surrounding the March 22 attack suggest that the FSB may have enabled the terrorists. At 6:54 p.m. four men drove up to the concert hall in a white Renault filed with firearms and waited there for more than an hour. No one questioned their presence, although a video posted on Telegram showed they were parked in front of a police van. At 7:58 p.m. they left the car and started firing at people on the street, after which they entered the concert hall, shooting everyone in sight. They then doused the premises with gasoline and set it on fire. By 8:11 p.m., they were racing to their car.

How did these four migrants from Tajikistan, at least one of whom was unemployed, manage to inflict such carnage in just 13 minutes? One of the accused men said he was recruited by the anonymous mastermind on Telegram for 500,000 rubles ($7,329). But it is unlikely that ISIS would use Telegram because it is too risky. Also, ISIS typically recruits Islamic religious fanatics; these men, according to their relatives, were not practising Muslims.

And why did the terrorists encounter no resistance? There were no armed security personnel at the event, attended by more than 4,000 people. And the Special Rapid Reaction Squad of the National Guard, located just three kilometres from the venue, inexplicably took almost an hour to arrive on the scene. As for the regular police – whose headquarters are in the building next to Crocus City Hall and who regularly patrol the area – they were nowhere to be seen....

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opin...rorist-attack/

[casper]

Another day, another report of another country trying to influence Canadian politics. Ok, it has been a while, so we have two countries this time.

"India, Pakistan attempted to interfere in Canada's elections: CSIS
Spy agency documents tabled at foreign interference inquiry show 2019, 2021 elections were targeted....."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pak...nada-1.7164378

[Truenorth00]

Release of Canada’s Defence Policy Update

April 7, 2024 – Ottawa, Ontario – Department of National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces

On April 8, 2024, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, will release Canada’s Defence Policy Update.

Media are invited to attend a technical briefing by senior government officials from the Department of National Defence and Canadian Armed Forces, which is not for attribution and not for broadcast – and its contents will be under embargo until the beginning of the press conference.

Following the briefing, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, and the Honourable Ginette Petitpas Taylor, Minister of Veterans Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence will hold a press conference at Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Trenton.

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-...cy-update.html

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-...cy-update.html

So is it going to be a nothing burger or will things get serious?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

So is it going to be a nothing burger or will things get serious?

I know as much as you do. A lot of requirement staffs were asked to submit their proposals. Everybody is waiting to find out what made the cut.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I know as much as you do. A lot of requirement staffs were asked to submit their proposals. Everybody is waiting to find out what made the cut.

Well the way the Government was trying to solve housing this week with Billions and Billions perhaps they have heard our NATO allies. Announcing on the same day as an eclipse. The Ancients used to say that an eclipse harkened change. Wait and see.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Well the way the Government was trying to solve housing this week with Billions and Billions perhaps they have heard our NATO allies. Announcing on the same day as an eclipse. The Ancients used to say that an eclipse harkened change. Wait and see.

Also announcing where you can see the eclipse which is interesting timing.

[Truenorth00]

Interesting Agenda piece on the topic like over a week ago:

• Video Link

There's long term issues and commitments. But in the immediate term, I'd argue that we probably need about $500-700M on various personnel initiatives to improve recruiting and retention. This means everything from higher housing allowances (which boost are quality of life without increasing pension liabilities), improving dependent healthcare and daycare, improving support for training establishments to get recruits through quickly, etc.

We need to increase spending on equipment and R&D by about $1.9B/yr to get out of the quadrant of shame.

So basically I'm looking for an annual increase of $2.5-3B immediately (or at least ramping over the next 2 years) that will stop this "death spiral" talk. That takes us to 1.4-1.5% of GDP. Not 2%. But it does improve things a fair bit and should take a ton of heat off from allies.

For immediate spending, they can simply increase some of the existing contracts. Few more P-8s. Few more F-35s. Few more Reapers. In the long run there are areas where we have a real advantage that we could leverage (which keeps more defence spending at home). Surveillance of and from space is one such area. Modeling and simulation is another. Build some high tech training facilities and get the rest of NATO to train here. Etc. We're doing alright in AI. Maybe we should hard on AI and cyber too. There's nothing that says we have to provide infantry battalions. NATO would be quite happy if a Five Eyes country showed up with a Cyber battalion and a full space surveillance constellation.

Should be noted too that Ukraine support counts towards NATO targets. We could spend billions immediately buying weapons and ammo for Ukraine and that would win us a lot of credit with allies and help a cause that we ostensibly care about.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Interesting Agenda piece on the topic like over a week ago:

• Video Link

There's long term issues and commitments. But in the immediate term, I'd argue that we probably need about $500-700M on various personnel initiatives to improve recruiting and retention. This means everything from higher housing allowances (which boost are quality of life without increasing pension liabilities), improving dependent healthcare and daycare, improving support for training establishments to get recruits through quickly, etc.

We need to increase spending on equipment and R&D by about $1.9B/yr to get out of the quadrant of shame.

So basically I'm looking for an annual increase of $2.5-3B immediately (or at least ramping over the next 2 years) that will stop this "death spiral" talk. That takes us to 1.4-1.5% of GDP. Not 2%. But it does improve things a fair bit and should take a ton of heat off from allies.

For immediate spending, they can simply increase some of the existing contracts. Few more P-8s. Few more F-35s. Few more Reapers. In the long run there are areas where we have a real advantage that we could leverage (which keeps more defence spending at home). Surveillance of and from space is one such area. Modeling and simulation is another. Build some high tech training facilities and get the rest of NATO to train here. Etc. We're doing alright in AI. Maybe we should hard on AI and cyber too. There's nothing that says we have to provide infantry battalions. NATO would be quite happy if a Five Eyes country showed up with a Cyber battalion and a full space surveillance constellation.

Should be noted too that Ukraine support counts towards NATO targets. We could spend billions immediately buying weapons and ammo for Ukraine and that would win us a lot of credit with allies and help a cause that we ostensibly care about.

It would seem that some low hanging fruit is the recommendation by General Eyre to invest in the GD plants in Quebec. Its a little shameful that the Pentagon has invested 60 Mill but our Government has not taken up the 400 Mill plan that NDHQ came up with. Canadian jobs and a real contribution to NATO and Ukraine shell stocks.