Has the Toronto building boom peaked?

[koops65]

More proposals than ever before.
Bigger proposals than ever before.
Taller proposals than ever before.

The building boom has definitely NOT peaked yet...

[C.]

It's 2022. Has the Toronto Building Boom peaked yet?

[Nite]

Originally Posted by C.

It's 2022. Has the Toronto Building Boom peaked yet?

In the SSP database (https://skyscraperpage.com/diagrams/?searchID=95756092) their is currently as of 10-Jan-2022, 217 highrises under construction in Toronto, I am pretty sure that is the most ever, so no Toronto has not peaked yet.

[sky707]

I wish there is a graph counting the years and proposed buildings to see where we are! #Torontonfire

[koops65]

Why not make one?

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally Posted by C.

It's 2022. Has the Toronto Building Boom peaked yet?

There's been quite a few ups and downs over the years. An actual peak representing a decline won't be pretty considering more and more people are being priced out of the market.

The last six months have since many projects break ground easily replacing the projects that have been completed.

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally Posted by C.

I have no idea where you're trying to say.

Unless all the condo towers being built in Toronto are just sitting vacant, they are proving homes for many people. Per this link, the the rental condominiums vacancy rate is just 1 percent, which is woefully far below what's needed for a healthy functioning market.

Where would all the people live if the towers of the last 20 years weren't constructed? Fertile farm land and that green belt which Torontonians are so proud to brad about would have been raped, pillaged, and devoured for low-density urban sprawl. That's what happens in most other North American cities. The growth restrictions on where development can occur in Greater Toronto, directed to the urban centers, comes at a cost.

As much Toronto is building, it sounds like it is no where near enough to keep up with demand. Either remove the green belt restrictions and open up more land for development or allow higher densities in other areas of the city. The neighborhoods traditionally zoned for single-family homes should be prime targets for intensification.

But it's easier to blame the foreigners I suppose.

It doesn't make any sense to address the affordability crisis on the supply side. It's not in the interest of the people funding developers to build so many new units that the values decline. Cities are barely afloat to afford the necessary upgrades for all these new communities let alone subsidizing the construction of the housing. You can't tear down 2000 single family homes and build 100,000 apartment units without spending a lot of money on the infrastructure. Everything is band aid until demand is address. We are all on this forum because we like following development, in particular, the skyline altering stuff. However, there's nothing admirable when quality of live drops to the level of renting a bunk for those that are new to the market/Canada. Same, these buildings this is happening right now aren't designed to have 6 to 8 adults in every unit. The buildings' infrastructure are being overwhelmed.

It's incredibly emotional connecting with new Canadian families that came here during the past decade; working 12 hours a day, 7 days a week and still starving is not what they were promised.

[C.]

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

It doesn't make any sense to address the affordability crisis on the supply side. It's not in the interest of the people funding developers to build so many new units that the values decline.

You say that it doesn't make any sense to address the affordability crisis on the supply side, so what is the demand side solutions? Ban immigration, institute a one-child-policy like China had, continue not to build enough housing so the high prices curb demand?

Toronto is simply not building enough to keep up with its growing population.
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/202...ld-report.html

A new report looking at the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area commissioned by the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) has found that over the last seven years, provincial forecasts have “underestimated” population growth and “overestimated” the amount of housing that would be completed in that time — contributing to a serious supply shortage and affordability challenges.

However, the company in charge of the provincial forecasts disputed the report’s findings, saying that the population estimates were in line with the data that was available at the time.

The report, titled “Forecast for Failure: How a broken forecasting system is at the root of the GTAH’s housing shortage and how it can be fixed” that was conducted for BILD by University of Ottawa think tank and national research network Smart Prosperity Institute, says municipalities, including outer ring communities such as Waterloo and the Niagara region, have been planning for growth based on “inaccurate or outdated assumptions.”

It's disgusting that you talk about the plight of recent immigrants, but then deny that new housing supply as a solution. Also, where have governments gone in the creation of subsidized/public housing that they once built. There is no real funding from any tier of government for the creation of new affordable housing. Yet, the population continues to grow, and everyone is surprised when people have trouble finding homes. Give me a break.

[WhipperSnapper]

Yeah, raising immigration year over year when housing is ridiculously expensive in the places the majority of immigrants locate makes no common sense. It does nothing for increasing stagnant wages in these places because there is always someone more desperate to work for less. It's crazy how low wages are in Toronto compared to US backwaters where a 2,500 square foot house is $100,000. It doesn't help the places desparate for workers either because few go there. Building more housing will not help the plight of new immigrants because they can't afford the rents with what they make.

There's a gazillion housing units awaiting zoning approval. fortunately, there's enough that have zoning approval too. The supply chain and raising funds are much bigger hurdles than some single family subdivision to doubling housing starts.

We need to break the cycle of flipping to the next guy

[casper]

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

Yeah, raising immigration year over year when housing is ridiculously expensive in the places the majority of immigrants locate makes no common sense. It does nothing for increasing stagnant wages in these places because there is always someone more desperate to work for less. It's crazy how low wages are in Toronto compared to US backwaters where a 2,500 square foot house is $100,000. It doesn't help the places desparate for workers either because few go there. Building more housing will not help the plight of new immigrants because they can't afford the rents with what they make.

There's a gazillion housing units awaiting zoning approval. fortunately, there's enough that have zoning approval too. The supply chain and raising funds are much bigger hurdles than some single family subdivision to doubling housing starts.

We need to break the cycle of flipping to the next guy

I think you need to look at other solutions.

In BC minimum wage is going up and there is talk of linking it to inflation. That is a good thing for those working at the lower end of the job market.

In BC the government has been dumping a lot of money into housing societies (non-profits) geared around providing housing targeting specific communities. I don't believe there are any housing societies targeting new immigrated, however we probably should.

City of Vancouver has also waved some of the development fees for new rental only construction.

Not certain if any of these would translate over to Ontario.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by casper

In BC minimum wage is going up and there is talk of linking it to inflation. That is a good thing for those working at the lower end of the job market.

In Ontario, the minimum wage has been indexed to inflation for at least a couple of years. It's still not at the level of a living wage, but certainly better than when I was a teen and pulled down 4 measly, insulting bucks an hour flipping emetic rat-meat patties.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Gresto

In Ontario, the minimum wage has been indexed to inflation for at least a couple of years. It's still not at the level of a living wage, but certainly better than when I was a teen and pulled down 4 measly, insulting bucks an hour flipping emetic rat-meat patties.

The minimum wage is definitely not indexed to inflation in Ontario. Don't know where you go tthat idea.
The previous Liberal government had a plane to raise the minimum wage every year. But that was one of the first things Doug Ford cancelled when he came to office.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by Nite

The minimum wage is definitely not indexed to inflation in Ontario. Don't know where you go tthat idea.

By assiduously reading the newspaper and watching the news, though I'm in the wilderness for six months of the year, with little access to news, so I can't claim authoritative knowledge of current events. It seems to be the case, however.

The previous Liberal government had a plane to raise the minimum wage every year. But that was one of the first things Doug Ford cancelled when he came to office.

I recall quite well an increase to $15 under Wynne, set to take effect several years ago and scuppered by DoFo, but not an annual increase thereafter. (Mind, I actually voted for Wynne because she ran to the left of the NDP, and am mortified and angered that DoFo continues to lead this province.)

[WhipperSnapper]

Wynne was a financial wreck. Ontario would in a dire situation should she have continued. Ford had to make cuts but reintroduced social systems that give everyone a piece of the pie instead a few people getting the whole pie. As far less right than his McMansion lifestyle and physique suggest. She wasn't left of the NDP. She instituted layers upon layers of tax exemptions for wealth owned by to the top 1% while instituting new taxes, fees for wealth owned by the middle class. Trudeau has followed suit at the federal level.

The Toronto media is as political bias in choosing what to report, how to report it and, what deserves further discussion than the nutjob OAN, Fox and, Newsmax south of the border. I also find Statcan's economic outlook for 2023 crazily optimistic. Best not to listen to intently

Back to topic

Raising the minimum wage does increase the cost of things, hours do get cut and people have to do a job previously done by two. It doesn't always have a favuorable outcome. Wynne's rapid increases to the minimum wage didn't work in favour in the long run for those making it. It was also an opportunity for business to jack up rates and prices for more profit under the guise of the increased cost of wages

The last thing you do is up immigration and student visas when you have out of control housing costs with an employers market with severe wage competition. The point of a student visa is education. There shouldn't be 20 hours a week allowed to work) Immigration has been hammered into our heads since we could talk. There's nothing more populist in Canada. Our hearts are bigger than our heads.

[WhipperSnapper]

An example. The figures given aren't the real figures.

I remember a huge CUPE backed, CP24 covered protest over Ford cutting a social assistance program for particular children right before Covid. A family in the program getting $60,000 was now only going to $10,000. What really happened is that the one family getting $60,000 with five other families getting $0 was now going to be six families each getting $10,000. People protesting were all convinced he had cut the program's funding by 80%.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

Wynne was a financial wreck. Ontario would in a dire situation should she have continued.

Not true. I have plenty of complaints about things that government did, though not as many as the current one; but that assertion is absurd and without foundation.

Back to topic

Raising the minimum wage does increase the cost of things, hours do get cut and people have to do a job previously done by two. It doesn't always have a favuorable outcome. Wynne's rapid increases to the minimum wage didn't work in favour in the long run for those making it. It was also an opportunity for business to jack up rates and prices for more profit under the guise of the increased cost of wages

What nonsense.

Of course the minimum wage increases the cost of goods and services, but far less than the wage increase to those who so desperately need that.

The impact has been analyzed in the U.S. context extensively, and that can be seen here:

https://www.americanactionforum.org/...federal-level/

The numbers vary by State in terms of impact, because it depends on what proportion of a businesses costs are labour. (it would be lower in New York, than Idaho, because rent is lower in the latter).

But in general a wage increase of 40% equals a price impact of 10-14%

A very worthwhile trade.

****

Minimum wage in comparable centres to Toronto is now much higher in the U.S. than here.

NYC is $15USD which is ~$20 CAD per hour

San Fran is $16.99USD which is $22.61CAD per hour

Seattle is $17.27 USD which is $22.96CAD per hour.

By any reasonable measure, our minimum wage is far too low and that is injurious to economic growth, and to tax revenues.

The unemployment rate in all of the above jurisdictions compares favourably to Toronto and has shown no adverse impact from wage hikes.

Shockingly, if you give people who need food banks to eat more money, they spend it!

On top of which, that spurs Income Tax, Sales Tax and Corporate tax revenue.

It also cuts government costs, since rent-geared-income units go up in rent when wages climb, and people reach income thresholds that disqualify reduce or eliminate certain tax credits and supports.

****

Opinions should be evidence-based.

[WhipperSnapper]

Wynne left Ontario the most heavily indebted sub state in the world. You think we would be better off still with her? Her acolyte ran on a campaign to add 100,000 (?) more teachers as if spending tens of billions more on teacher's salaries will fix the breaking/broken education system.


There's plenty of analysis on Wynne's minimum wage implementation without having to use stats from another country with completely different analytics. I don't oppose a living wage and the $15 minimum is not a living wage in Toronto. I'm directly involved in two groups that work face to face with working families in Scarborough. It's how it was implemented like everything else the Wynne government did that created a clusterfuck across Ontario. It's also that a standard provincial wide minimum wage doesn't make any sense especially when the Wynne government was in power.

An inflationary minimum wage increase is sound. However, not as sound when we have the rise in inflation we have now. Even you must agree our current inflationary situation is in part to the Canadian government adding billions to the economy in $2000 Covid cheques with little to no oversight on who is getting them. Too much money in the economy right now. If you don't agree than I have zero interest in continuing with you.

[Doady]

If Ford really cared so much about stopping Wynneflation he would have gone even further and got rid of the minimum wage altogether, or even implement a maximum wage law for certain sectors. Instead of just banning strikes for education workers, he could have banned strikes for all unionized workers, or banned unions altogether. But he didn't, which just shows how little importance the economy is to these politicians and governments, and how it's not the people and the economists who are in control but rather the unions and the left-wing media that are in control, and why the economic problems facing Ontario are not going to be solved anytime soon.

[C.]

It's 2023 and interest rates are as high as they've been in years.

Canada is also looking to welcome 550,000 new immigrants a year, with many settling where the jobs are: Toronto.

It will be interesting to see if immigration fuels the condo boom. Canada is also probably looking very attractive as a safe haven to the wealthy in China with things in the US deteriorating.

[yaletown_fella]

Remote workers should be encouraged to be settled outside of the big 3 cities. They tend to be higher paid and bid up prices.