The US Census Bureau thread - Page 111

proghousehead · #**2201** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 4:35 PM**

Isn't today supposed to be Christmas or something for us city nerds?

ChiSoxRox · #**2202** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 4:42 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by proghousehead

Isn't today supposed to be Christmas or something for us city nerds?

Press conference at 1 PM Eastern

proghousehead · #**2203** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 4:44 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Press conference at 1 PM Eastern

Thanks. And county/city/state level data to be released concurrent to the press conference or shortly thereafter?

ChiSoxRox · #**2204** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by proghousehead

Thanks. And county/city/state level data to be released concurrent to the press conference or shortly thereafter?

I do not know. For the 2010 Census, they released blocks of five states each week in the fall of 2010 in iirc CSV files, but this year the Bureau plans on releasing all states at once, in "legacy file format."

I'll check the CB website throughout the day.

Here is the press conference feed.

• Video Link

Randomguy34 · #**2205** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:20 PM**

The PL files just dropped for block-by-block level: https://www2.census.gov/programs-sur...le--PL_94-171/

ChiSoxRox · #**2206** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:27 PM**

Eyeballing from the county change map: Cook County, IL and Allegheny County, PA grew!

Edit: Pittsburgh and Cleveland MSAs also grew.

proghousehead · #**2207** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:29 PM**

How do we interpret these files?

ChiSoxRox · #**2208** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:33 PM**

NYC!!! Positive Chicago!

Steely Dan · #**2209** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:37 PM**

HOLY MOTHERFUCKING SHIT!!!!!!!!

CHICAGO ACTUALLY GREW?!?!?!?!?

how?

iheartthed · #**2210** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:39 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

NYC!!! Positive Chicago!

I got pretty close on NYC. Dallas and Houston landed exactly where expected. And I was pretty far off on Chicago and L.A., but happy to be wrong there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I looked at some numbers based on the state population growth to make a prediction about where some cities will land once the actual census numbers are released. I'm not going to put actual numbers to many of them to avoid that type of conversation, but here are my general guesses.

The Good

NYC looks in good shape. I'd be surprised if the actual population is below 8.5M. My official guess is 8.71M for NYC.

Texas - Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio will probably come in close to the ACS estimates. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Austin is a slight miss. I think it's certainly not going to hit 1m this census.

Miami - Prospects for growth are good. Like Austin, the ACS estimates might be a little too rosy, but growth seems certain.

Possible surprises in the older midsize cities - Baltimore, Cleveland, St. Louis, and Milwaukee might actually pulled out of their decades long population declines.

Pacific Northwest - The major cities in the Northwest, Seattle and Portland, both appear to continue to grow.

The Bad

I think the slower than usual growth in the Sun Belt is going to introduce a few surprises at the city level. North Carolina's cities (Raleigh and Charlotte) probably didn't grow as fast as projected. Ditto for Nashville. And, I wouldn't be surprised to see a small population drop in Atlanta.

The Ugly

Chicago and California. Especially L.A. and Chicago. L.A. seems on track for a first ever population loss. I see a small loss for San Francisco as well, but it's close enough that it could also be a small increase.

Chicago will also probably show a loss, which shouldn't be too controversial considering that Illinois was the only state to lose population. But Chicago's population losses might be as bad as what happened last decade. Or worse. And Houston might have overtaken it as America's third largest city.

Boisebro · #**2211** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:41 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

HOLY MOTHERFUCKING SHIT!

CHICAGO ACTUALLY GREW?!?!?!?!?

how?

because everyone likes pizza?

proghousehead · #**2212** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:42 PM**

I am having trouble extracting the files. Do you kind folk have any other sources for the data?

JManc · #**2213** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:42 PM**

Those are sunbelt figures for New York. It's never been that high.

Chisouthside · #**2214** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:44 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by proghousehead

I am having trouble extracting the files. Do you kind folk have any other sources for the data?

Try 7zip to extract the files!

iheartthed · #**2215** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc

Those are sunbelt figures for New York. It's never been that high.

New York grew by 9.4% in the 90s. The Sun Belt is slowing down though.

JManc · #**2216** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed

New York grew by 9.4% in the 90s. The Sun Belt is slowing down though.

In the 90's, New York was emerging from the deep abyss that was the 70's and 80's but today 7.7% growth when it was already in solid shape is nothing short of amazing.

Yeah, the sunbelt is maturing which is a very good thing in the long run. Fast growth in the 70's, 80's and 90's made for a lot of throw-away architecture and really questionable urban planning.

DCReid · #**2217** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 5:56 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

HOLY MOTHERFUCKING SHIT!!!!!!!!

CHICAGO ACTUALLY GREW?!?!?!?!?

how?

My guess - the loss of poorer and middle class mostly African-Americans from the south and west sides came to a trickle as the majority who wanted to leave had slowed by 2015-2016. Chicago continued to gain younger people and upper class people as it is an attractive city with many good businesses and many amenities, and is fairly cheap compared to the coasts. Chicago seems to be like Philadelphia, but is probably in better position because it better competes with its midwest competition where Philly most content with NYC and DC.

Buckeye Native 001 · #**2218** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 6:07 PM**

That's what, the second decade in a row now where Chicago expected to lose population in the decennial census but actually grew?

iheartthed · #**2219** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 6:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001

That's what, the second decade in a row now where Chicago expected to lose population in the decennial census but actually grew?

Last decade was the opposite. Chicago was expected to grow but shrank.

Ant131531 · #**2220** Posted **Aug 12, 2021, 6:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I got pretty close on NYC. Dallas and Houston landed exactly where expected. And I was pretty far off on Chicago and L.A., but happy to be wrong there.

Atlanta ended up coming in at 499k for 2020 so you were wrong with saying Atlanta would drop in population.