City Murder Rates

[Crawford]

I'd say Boston has more rough-looking areas, too. DC is way more gentrified. Boston has a lot of places that aren't particularly high crime but still look pretty tough. Dorchester, East Boston, Mattapan and the like. Meanwhile DC has hyper-gentrified looking areas, like Logan Circle and U Street area, that still get plenty of homicides.

Granted, I know that outward neighborhood appearance has little to do with crime rates.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Smuttynose1

Racial demographics are not wildly divergent; both cities are pretty diverse. Boston has a slightly higher share of white alone/not Hispanic (44%) residents and a smaller share of Black residents (24%), but higher shares of Hispanic (20%), Asian (10%), and mixed-race (10%) residents. Washington is more stratified between white alone/not Hispanic (38%) and Black residents (45%) with smaller proportions of Hispanic (12%), Asian (5%), and mixed-race (3%) residents.

Boston and DC are wildly divergent in one critical category.

Boston barely experienced the Great Migration from the South.

It’s hard to understate how much Caribbean migration changed the outcomes of American black communities vs those that have predominantly Southern origins.

Greater Boston now has the largest share of foreign-born Black residents in the US



https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2023...nts-in-the-us#

[ilcapo]

28/9 2023

Sweden (pop 10.5 mil)
YTD Estimated total:
2023: 96 (45 deadly shootings)
2022: 82 (50)
2021: 76

Stockholm Metro (pop 2.4 mil)
YTD Estimated total:
2023: 40 (22 deadly shootings)
2022: 34
2021: 29

Stockholm Within City limits/Municipality (Pop 980.000)
YTD Estimated total:
2023: 18 (11 deadly shootings)
2022: 17 (8)
2021: 15

Gothenburg/Göteborg Municipality (Pop 600 000)
YTD Estimated total:
2023: 8 (3 deadly shootings)
2022: 3 (2)
2021: 7

Malmo/Malmö Municipality (Pop 360 000)
YTD Estimated total:
2023: 4 (1 deadly shooting)
2022: 9 (5)
2021: 3

[ilcapo]

Some figures for other Nordic/Scandinavian cities, for the full year of 2022.

Denmark (pop 6 mil)
2022: 46 (8 deadly shootings)

Copenhagen Capital Region (pop 1.9 mil)
2022: 15 (7 deadly shootings)

Within Copenhagen City Limits (Pop 650.000)
2022: 8 (6 deadly shootings)

-----

Norway(pop 5.5 mil)
2022: 29 (3 deadly shootings)

Oslo Police District (Oslo Municipality + Baerum (pop 800 000)
2022: 6 (2 deadly shootings)

[ilcapo]

Some more figures from 2022 and 2021 that i dont think ive posted.

Netherlands

Amsterdam Municipality (pop 921 000)
2022: 10
2021: 15

Rotterdam City (pop 655 000)
2022: 15
2021: 14

[Acajack]

I've actually been waiting for an update from ilcapo as I recently saw lots of chatter about a spike of crime in Sweden this month: shootings, bombings, etc.

[Doady]

I think most important point with the Scandinavian numbers is not the low murder rates, but rather how the murders are not concentrated in a particular part of a metropolitan area. The murder rate within the Stockholm city limits is similar to the rest of the metropolitan area. You can see the same in Canadian metropolitan areas. Figuring out why crime is so concentrated might be just as important as figuring out how to control guns.

City of Toronto: 2.8 million people
Peel Region: 1.4 million
York Region: 1.2 million
Rest of Toronto CMA: 0.8 million
Toronto CMA: 6.2 million

City of Toronto: 71 homicides in 2022
Peel Region: 30
York Region: 23
Rest of Toronto CMA: 12
Toronto CMA: 136

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I've actually been waiting for an update from ilcapo as I recently saw lots of chatter about a spike of crime in Sweden this month: shootings, bombings, etc.

Theres definitely been an escalation. Its not the absolute numbers that are the biggest cause of concern (Because they are still relatively low), its the fact that the victims are so extremely young and sometimes not even involved in criminality. Its a trend i've read about in The Netherlands and Belgium (Antwerp) as well, where the big players are located outside of Sweden, so rival gangs attack their family members.

Our police chief called it acts of terror and says that no other country in Western Europe currently sees this kind of gang-violence. Its really sad and embarrasing for Sweden.

Just in September alone there have been atleast 10 residential-bombings and 15 or so murders (11 of them linked to "gangs")

Some examples of recent happenings with young or non-intended victims:

2023-07-29 & 2023-08-18 Stockholm
Two 14-year old boys are found murdered.

2023-09-07 Uppsala
The mother of gang-leader is shot to death

2023-09-12 Uppsala
A young man is shot to death outside of his apartment. Police believe he was not the intended target and completely innocent.

2023-09-11 Stockholm
A 13 year old boy is found shot dead

2023-09-21 Sandviken
Two people are shot dead in a restaurant. One of the victims is a blind elderly man.

2023-09-27 Stockholm
A 17 year old is shot dead

2023-09-28 Uppsala
A residential bombing leaves an innocent 25-year-old woman dead. The intended target was her neighbor.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

Theres definitely been an escalation. Its not the absolute numbers that are the biggest cause of concern (Because they are still relatively low), its the fact that the victims are so extremely young and sometimes not even involved in criminality. Its a trend i've read about in The Netherlands and Belgium (Antwerp) as well, where the big players are located outside of Sweden, so rival gangs attack their family members.

Our police chief called it acts of terror and says that no other country in Western Europe currently sees this kind of gang-violence. Its really sad and embarrasing for Sweden.

Just in September alone there have been atleast 10 residential-bombings and 15 or so murders (11 of them linked to "gangs")

Some examples of recent happenings with young or non-intended victims:

2023-07-29 & 2023-08-18 Stockholm
Two 14-year old boys are found murdered.

2023-09-07 Uppsala
The mother of gang-leader is shot to death

2023-09-12 Uppsala
A young man is shot to death outside of his apartment. Police believe he was not the intended target and completely innocent.

2023-09-11 Stockholm
A 13 year old boy is found shot dead

2023-09-21 Sandviken
Two people are shot dead in a restaurant. One of the victims is a blind elderly man.

2023-09-27 Stockholm
A 17 year old is shot dead

2023-09-28 Uppsala
A residential bombing leaves an innocent 25-year-old woman dead. The intended target was her neighbor.

Yeah, what is most shocking is how the violence is spread out all over the country, even in smaller cities.

If I compare with Quebec (similar to Sweden in a number of ways), violence by gangs is extremely concentrated in Montreal - or even certain specific parts of Montreal.

There is a little bit in some suburbs of Montreal like Laval and very occasionally in cities like Quebec City and Gatineau, but not that much really. And bombings are basically unheard of here.

But if I look at places comparable to Uppsala (150,000 people) like Trois-Rivières and Saguenay, there is absolutely no violence of that nature going on.

And I sometimes see random gang violence happening in cities of 35,000-50,000 in Sweden. We don't really have that going on here at all.

Probably 99% of the violence in Quebec outside of certain specific areas of Montreal is domestic like a guy killing his wife or his wife and kids, and then killing himself.

Still horrible and tragic of course, but a very different kind of problem.

[edale]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Boston and DC are wildly divergent in one critical category.

Boston barely experienced the Great Migration from the South.

It’s hard to understate how much Caribbean migration changed the outcomes of American black communities vs those that have predominantly Southern origins.

Yes, this is a major difference between DC and Boston. Another is metro area racial demographics. Metro DC is 24% Black, and 17% Hispanic. Metro Boston is 7% Black, and 12% Hispanic. DC has significant amounts of suburban poverty, as much of the black community has been displaced to neighboring PG County. I imagine a fair amount of the violence in DC is perpetrated by people who live just over the Maryland state line, but come to DC to do 'business'. Once you get outside of Boston, New England is one of the whitest and wealthiest parts of the country. There's no PG County equivalent. Exurban Boston reaches New Hampshire. Exurban DC reaches Baltimore. Pretty big difference.

[summersm343]

Philadelphia as of 9/29

2023 - 328
2022 - 403
2021 - 408
2020 - 346

https://www.phillypolice.com/crime-maps-stats

[Steely Dan]

Chicago as of 10/1:

2023: 490
2022: 555
2021: 671
2020: 610

Source: heyjackass.com


So down roughly 12% from last year, and down 27% from the 2021 shit show.

[edale]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Chicago as of 10/1:

2023: 490
2022: 555
2021: 671
2020: 610

Source: heyjackass.com


So down roughly 12% from last year, and down 27% from the 2021 shit show.

That's great to hear! We're through the summer, when murders tend to peak, so hopefully Chicago will show some pretty encouraging numbers at years end.

[Steely Dan]

^ it'd be nice if the decline holds steady and the city ends up under 600 for the year.

Still an abhorrently atrocious homicide tally, obviously, but given Chicago's DEEPLY entrenched street gang culture, the best we can hope for is consistent, sustained decline. This town ain't gonna just start putting up Boston level numbers overnight (or ever).

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ it'd be nice if the decline holds steady and the city ends up under 600 for the year.

Still an abhorrently atrocious homicide tally, obviously, but given Chicago's DEEPLY entrenched street gang culture, the best we can hope for is consistent, sustained decline. This town ain't gonna just start putting up Boston level numbers overnight (or ever).

never say never. 30 years ago Boston had similar crime numbers...

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

never say never. 30 years ago Boston had similar crime numbers...

El Salvador also got its murder rate down to rock-bottom levels! uh...

[pip]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

never say never. 30 years ago Boston had similar crime numbers...

Boston is extremely safe and Boston's most crime infested years, of only a few years, are probably average for an American city today.

Boston's peak year of a homicide rates was 1990, about 26 per hundred thousand, and is not far from a Chicago average over the decades. After the peak year in 1990 it fell by 2/3 a few years later and has held steady since.

Boston is a low crime city over the decades, with it's peak years in the late 1980's and early 1990's over a short period of time.

[Steely Dan]

^ wow, I had no idea that Boston, of all freaking places, was putting up murder rates in the mid-20s back in the day!!!

To put that into perspective, if Chicago follows its current trajectory and ends the year with around 600 homicides, that would put its rate at ~22 per 100K.

That's nutso. I had no idea that Boston ever saw levels of gun violence like that.

[craigs]

I lived in Boston in 1990. I got mugged--coldcocked and robbed while unconscious--and somebody broke into our apartment and stole our stuff while we were away. A couple of my friends suffered a home-invasion robbery--three guys busted through the windows while they were home and held them at gunpoint while they robbed them. And I saw multiple violent crimes, even if they were small stakes, with my own eyes when I was out and about. That said, Boston was not unique in peak crime hitting around 1990--that was true across the country.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by pip

Boston is extremely safe and Boston's most crime infested years, of only a few years, are probably average for an American city today.

Boston's peak year of a homicide rates was 1990, about 26 per hundred thousand, and is not far from a Chicago average over the decades. After the peak year in 1990 it fell by 2/3 a few years later and has held steady since.

Boston is a low crime city over the decades, with it's peak years in the late 1980's and early 1990's over a short period of time.

I honestly had no idea Boston had such a high rate at one point. Wow, what a change in 30 years