Still Red American Urban Areas

[Smuttynose1]

One of the most enduring political trends in the United States over the last several decades is that urban areas and even many denser suburban areas are rapidly trending toward the Democratic Party. This trend abated a bit in 2020 (more on that later), but below are the few urban county holdouts that still favor the GOP.

Boise, Ada County, Idaho
Trump 50% Biden 46%


Maybe the biggest headscratcher of this list as Boise tends to present the image of a progressive, even slightly granola-y metropolis. However, Metropolitan Boiseans still favor the GOP by a comfortable margin, though national elections have been getting closer -- in 2016, Trump won by an even more comfortable 9 percent.

Spokane, Spokane County, Washington
Trump 50% Biden 46%

A mirror image of Boise, at least politically, Spokane County still favors the GOP but has generally been trending slightly more Democratic in recent years.

Colorado Springs, El Paso County, Colo.
Trump 54% Biden 43%

With a population of nearly 500K, Colorado Springs is one of the largest cities in the American West and by some forecasts is projected to surpass Denver as the Colorado's largest city. But Colorado Springs is Denver's political opposite. Home to the US Air Force Academy and a mecca for evangelical Christians, it has long voted conservatively. Still, the county's politics are moderating. In 2004, Bush outperformed Kerry by more than 2 to 1 in El Paso County. In 2020, that gap closed to 11 percent.

Oklahoma City & Tulsa, Oklahoma & Tulsa Counties, Oklahoma
Oklahoma Cty: Trump 49% Biden 48% Tulsa Cty: Trump: 56% Biden 41%

Although still nominally Republican, Oklahoma County is one of the fastest Democratic trending places in the country. In 2004, the GOP took this county by 29 points. In 2020, just a single percentage point separated the two candidates. Tulsa County, on the other hand, remains one of the strongest GOP urban counties in the country.

Wichita, Sedgwick County, Kansas
Trump 55% Biden 43%

While the Kansas City suburbs of Kansas have trended more Democratic, the Wichita Area remains a Republican bulwark.

Fort Wayne, Allen County, Indiana
Trump 54% Biden 43%

In the last eighty years, Allen County has voted for a Democrat only once -- in 1964 for LBJ by a single point.

Ogden & Provo, Utah, Weber and Utah Counties, Utah
Weber Cty: Trump 59% Biden 36% Utah Cty: Trump 67% Biden 26%

Salt Lake County has trended to pretty solidly blue territory, but it's neighboring cities to the north and south, some of the most Mormon places in the country, rank among the most Republican loyal areas.

Knoxville, Knox County, Tenn.
Trump: 56% Biden: 41%

Knox County is home to a major city and the state's flagship university which usually helps Democrats. But in one of the nation's most conservative states, this county remains solidly conservative.

Huntsville, Madison County, Alabama
Trump: 53% Biden 45%

A technology rich and economically healthy metropolis, Huntsville is more sympathetic to Democrats than Alabamans in general, but still heavily leans toward the GOP.

[Crawford]

I'm amazed Knoxville County is solidly red. Very odd for a county housing an urban state flagship university, even in a conservative state.

If the Dems can't even win the university towns, they have no hope at statewide level.

[Gantz]

Boise is a very nice town, with low crime and low unemployment rate with plenty of jobs, but recently it had a surge in Californian migrants and refugees.
It is not super Republican, but more moderate-Republican/centrist.

[pdxtex]

Urban conservatism never really went away, it just started voting democrat also because sooner or later that became the only choice. The democrat umbrella is huge. Its basically the costco of policy at this point.
Portland is blue on paper but get on the ground here and you'll see this place is rife with centrist and progressive infighting. This city is way more conservative than people think it is. Even Portlands mayor used to be a republican. But he's not a conservative any more. Riiiight. Voting nuances are interesting tho. After Alaska, did you know Massachusetts has the second highest percentage of independent voters? Its 60s percent. That state regularly elects republican governors but votes blue for president. Weird man. As far as still red urban areas, the only major cities i can think with republican mayors are Jacksonville,Miami, OKC. FT Worth and Omaha.

[Yuri]

That’s a messy list. Bigger city propers like Wichita, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Knoxville will be more red as they more neighborhoods with a suburban character.

[Steely Dan]

^ the results presented here are by core county, not central city.

[pdxtex]

Originally Posted by Gantz

Boise is a very nice town, with low crime and low unemployment rate with plenty of jobs, but recently it had a surge in Californian migrants and refugees.
It is not super Republican, but more moderate-Republican/centrist.

You raise a good point but I think there is a myth that people who relocate are bringing different politics. Out migrants are usually seeking complementary viewpoints but at a cheaper price.

[eschaton]

In all of these cases except for the Utah cities the "red" areas are suburban and in the fringes of the county (sometimes not even within the core city). The actual areas surrounding the CBD are Democratic - in some cases quite heavily so.

Actual "red" urban neighborhoods are more common in the North (areas like the Orthodox parts of NYC). Another would be South of Broad in Charleston.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by Smuttynose1

Maybe the biggest headscratcher of this list as Boise tends to present the image of a progressive, even slightly granola-y metropolis.

Really? I wasn't even aware of this. Boise is not on my radar; in fact I don't know anybody who talks about it.

[eschaton]

Only about half of Ada County's population is in Boise. The suburbs like Meridian are hard red.

[Crawford]

I always thought of Idaho as pretty far right. Most of the state lives in the Boise area, and Idaho is the second most Mormon state, as well as a haven for anti-govt. types.

[Crawford]

Another hard right county with a large state flagship university - Tuscaloosa County, Alabama. Voted 62%-37% red last election, and the county is 30% black. Also, University of Alabama is enormous, majority out of state student population, and is considered pretty liberal for Alabama standards. Damn, Alabama is a conservative state.

[Steely Dan]

Idaho was the 5th reddest state in the nation in 2020 with a +30.8 margin.

Only WY, WV, ND, & OK were redder.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Another hard right county with a large state flagship university - Tuscaloosa County, Alabama. Voted 62%-37% red last election, and the county is 30% black. Also, University of Alabama is enormous, majority out of state student population, and is considered pretty liberal for Alabama standards. Damn, Alabama is a conservative state.

I believe 90% of white people in Alabama (and Mississippi) vote Republican.

[Steely Dan]

The places on this list are all pretty small potatoes.

when it comes to the nation's major metro areas, they mostly lean heavily to ridiculously blue, with a handful of purple exceptions down in the Sunbelt.


2020 presidential election vote margin for 3M+ MSAs:

SF: +60.9
DC: +47.9
Seattle: +38.1
Boston: +36.9
LA: +35.7
Chicago: +32.3
Philly: +30.0
NYC: +28.1
Denver: +25.8
San Diego: +23.3
Minneapolis: +19.8
Miami: +16.3
Atlanta: +15.6
Detroit: +13.7
Riverside: +9.4

Dallas: +1.2
Houston: +1.1
Phoenix: +0.6
Tampa: +2.6


those 19 metro areas had an average blue margin of +22.8 in the 2020 election.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ the results presented here are by core county, not central city.

I see. Counties sizes also vary a lot. I guess the MSA list is the best way.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Another hard right county with a large state flagship university - Tuscaloosa County, Alabama. Voted 62%-37% red last election, and the county is 30% black. Also, University of Alabama is enormous, majority out of state student population, and is considered pretty liberal for Alabama standards. Damn, Alabama is a conservative state.

Just because a city or metro has a large flagship university does not guarantee it will be liberal. Some universities are in fact quite conservative. I believe Texas A&M is conservative, in stark contrast to U Texas Austin, and I would not be surprised if U of Alabama is conservative. A metro with a state capital and flagship does tend to be more liberal than other parts of the state, which probably explains why OKC is a more liberal than Tulsa, and I would guess that Nashville city (and its county) is more liberal than Knoxville. But those areas are surrounded by a sea of conservative suburbs that out vote the liberal. Also, areas with high military employment seems to be more conservative than other areas, which is one reason why Colorado Springs (along with the evangelicals) and Huntsville (a lot of its tech is military) tend to be on the conservative side. Does anyone have any data on how the San Diego area voted compared with LA - I am curious since I think San Diego has more military. For FL, I think Jax was the most red of the major metro areas, but I would be interested if someone has the data for the FL metros.

[Shawn]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

After Alaska, did you know Massachusetts has the second highest percentage of independent voters? Its 60s percent. That state regularly elects republican governors but votes blue for president. Weird man.

Mass has a convoluted party enrollment system for primaries. If you are registered as either a Democrat or Republican, you can only vote in that party's primary for all levels of elections. However, if you are unenrolled*, you can vote in either party's primary. This matters for Statehouse races, where some parts of the state are locally competitive. Therefor, many, many people who vote Democrat across the board for statewide or national elections choose to remain unregistered so as to have choice for local elections. This describes my entire family.

But don't misunderstand: MA Republicans would just be fiscally right-of-center Democrats in any red state. Every one of our Republican governors over the past 50 years has been (at the time of governing, ahem Romney) socially center or even left-over-center. They've all been pro-choice and pro-strict gun laws, for example. Romney was fine with the MA Supreme Court allowing gay marriage in 2003. Our current Republican governor, who has consistently seen ~70% approval, is super anti-Trump and vocally pro-choice.

MA likes having GOP governors to counter the permanent super-majority the Dems have in the Statehouse. Permanent one-party rule never works out in the end. Our more business-friendly GOP Statehouse leadership has kept the Mass economy among the best in the country for decades.

*Unenrolled gets called "Independent" whenever MA gets compared to other states - but it's not an active choice. There's no such thing as a "registered Independent"; anyone who isn't specifically enrolled as a Rep or Dem is automatically "independent".

[xzmattzx]

Where do the urban areas in south Texas stand? They seem to be trending redder in the last few years.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Also, areas with high military employment seems to be more conservative than other areas, which is one reason why Colorado Springs (along with the evangelicals) and Huntsville (a lot of its tech is military) tend to be on the conservative side. Does anyone have any data on how the San Diego area voted compared with LA - I am curious since I think San Diego has more military.

Per Steely Dan's post, the LA MSA's 2020 Democratic margin was +35.7 and the San Diego MSA's was +23.3.

San Diego certainly has more military than LA proportionally, and perhaps even numerically, but SD has matured into a large coastal metro with a diverse economy and population. Generally, they'll sometimes vote for Republican mayors--as long as they are old-school moderate Republicans--but the majority of the metro now reliably votes Democratic at the state and national levels.