How COVID is creating opportunities in the suburbs

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Matthew

As kids return to school and suburban schools often have more conservative (no masks, in-person learning, no one-way changes in the halls, back to sports, hide any issues from parents and the media, etc.) school boards that want to return to pre-COVID-19 right now, could we see teachers and families want to leave the suburbs for more careful urban/city schools? Could city schools gain some of the best teachers and sports coaches through being more careful with everyone's health or at least being perceived as the better choice for the health of kids and teachers? Here in the suburbs of Atlanta, I've seen teachers quitting or protesting over COVID-19 concerns and parents (kids too!) are speaking-up over masks, distancing, the need for online classes, etc.,. It "could" present a rare opportunity for schools in our nation's cities to gain some of the best teachers from the suburbs and improve the quality of education and maybe their sports teams, too? Quality of education is often seen as a weakness of city living for young families. I'm sure the best city schools in the highest income neighborhoods would see most of these gains. Could this position cities to retain more young families?

I highly doubt this

In many of Chicago’s burbs, schools are going to e-learning just like the city, but without all of the hoopla and noise that Chicago Teachers Union creates.

The best teachers will go to where the “best” families are. And while there are top schools in cities for sure, on the whole the best families—and by saying that I’m talking about people who end up going to College and having the most promising careers—still tend to be in the burbs.

[Acajack]

I am not wishing ill-fortune on cities at all, but if you look at all the signs (even here in Canada and in other countries too), there is a lot that is ominous for inner cities at the moment.

And lots of wishful thinking here on SSP in the face of lots of bad news.

Even the article about suburbs needing to become more like cities is still bad news for inner cities. Because we're still talking about people and human activity moving *out* of cities. It's still a net negative for historic core city X if one of its outlying suburbs attracts more people and activity from it, and becomes a bit more urban in the process.

Water always follows the path of least resistance.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Even the article about suburbs needing to become more like cities is still bad news for inner cities. Because we're still talking about people and human activity moving *out* of cities. It's still a net negative for historic core city X if one of its outlying suburbs attracts more people and activity from it, and becomes a bit more urban in the process.

There is a stark cultural and generational divide on who is talking about people moving out of cities. There has been no big epiphany among young Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z. This discussion is mostly being driven by people who don't live in cities to begin with.

[Crawford]

Right, it's mostly boomers who can't sell their McMansions that they overpaid for decades ago, and mad that millennials aren't coming to rescue their retirement plans. Young people, on the whole, aren't going back to that lifestyle.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There is a stark cultural and generational divide on who is talking about people moving out of cities. There has been no big epiphany among young Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z. This discussion is mostly being driven by people who don't live in cities to begin with.

I am Gen X, in case you are wondering.

Also, "Corporate America" is not a generational thing.

[10023]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I am Gen X, in case you are wondering.

Also, "Corporate America" is not a generational thing.

Well, it sort of is. “Corporate America” is normally dominated by a certain personality type, but also by people in their 40s and 50s, and so will reflect the predominant culture of whatever generation that is at the time.

[10023]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I am not wishing ill-fortune on cities at all, but if you look at all the signs (even here in Canada and in other countries too), there is a lot that is ominous for inner cities at the moment.

And lots of wishful thinking here on SSP in the face of lots of bad news.

Even the article about suburbs needing to become more like cities is still bad news for inner cities. Because we're still talking about people and human activity moving *out* of cities. It's still a net negative for historic core city X if one of its outlying suburbs attracts more people and activity from it, and becomes a bit more urban in the process.

Water always follows the path of least resistance.

Well not necessarily again. The idea of the suburbs becoming more like cities (from an American point of view) means an inversion of the 20th century norm in America. It is reflective of, in certain cities, the pattern becoming more like Europe with the center city wealthier and whiter and the outskirts poorer and more ethnically diverse.

The wealthy live where they choose to live, and water following the path of least resistance, in this case, means the poor living where they can afford to. In 20th century America, that tended to mean fairly dilapidated urban neighbourhoods. Now it means ‘60s and ‘70s era inner- or middle-ring suburbia, at least in some markets.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Right, it's mostly boomers who can't sell their McMansions that they overpaid for decades ago, and mad that millennials aren't coming to rescue their retirement plans. Young people, on the whole, aren't going back to that lifestyle.

My neighborhood has a growing percentage of GenX and Millenials buying houses mainly from Boomers and older generations downsizing. As cities continue to get more expensive, the demand for the suburbs isn't abating anytime soon. We were looking at $500k-$600k houses in town and in areas with shitty schools which would not be an option for many younger families.

[the urban politician]

There is always going to be a steady stream of urbanites moving to the burbs.

Covid may just accelerate these decisions for the next 1-2 years, providing a boost to the suburban housing market

[Yuri]

Today I saw a pic of a public poll in Wuhan, packed with people having fun. That's the city where everything started and faced the most strict quarentine.

COVID-19 will go away and city life will resume quickly.

[chris08876]

I've never so many folks out in the suburbs since the advent of the purge of 2020.

For real.

I remember in the beginning stages, everyone and their mother was out walking and doing all that good stuff. Seeing fresh new faces.

Amazing how nature (virus) can somehow reconnect us to the outside world via the actions of nature itself.

One good thing, I suppose, in the suburbs, is the large increase in outdoor dining. I think this is something that is here to stay.

Outdoor dining that is.

ALSO, the great purge is getting a lot of New Yorkers to leave to the suburbs. The town in PA where I'm moving to once things are finished being u/c is full of New Yorkers. Its like I never left lol. In fact, when I was in the sales office a few months ago, a couple from Staten Island, with thier thick accents and sun burned tanning skin said hello. Conversation started off on the right track, as they are not a fan of Comrade DeBlasio, and its at that moment, that I was in good hands.

So the suburbs from a real estate standpoint are seeing opportunity!

I suppose another benefit is a health benefit. Aside from the mental illness created, people are actually out walking and doing exercise because they are bored at home. Not so much now, because things reopened, but in the beginning. So this virus has taught many folks lessons. A hard lesson, but it is a lesson in some way or another. Possibly people might be more mindful of how they treat their bodies, as the purge is not kind to those that don't heed health advice.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

There is always going to be a steady stream of urbanites moving to the burbs.

Covid may just accelerate these decisions for the next 1-2 years, providing a boost to the suburban housing market

Once the pandemic is over, most of the fundamentals will not have not changed. New graduates move to the city to get away from their parents and meet other young people and network with potential employers.

Some of them will move to the suburbs for the space and school districts once they have children. Retirees will eventually downsize and get a condo somewhere scenic, cheap and warm.

But since we’re not exactly having a baby boom, the young graduates spend a longer period of their lives in the city and a good chunk of jobs and offices will follow them. Remote work tends to stumble when you’re dealing with trainees.

A small handful of cities with truly outrageous real estate prices with too many roommates or families sharing a space might experience a permanent downturn.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by chris08876

I've never so many folks out in the suburbs since the advent of the purge of 2020.

For real.

I remember in the beginning stages, everyone and their mother was out walking and doing all that good stuff. Seeing fresh new faces.

Amazing how nature (virus) can somehow reconnect us to the outside world via the actions of nature itself.

One good thing, I suppose, in the suburbs, is the large increase in outdoor dining. I think this is something that is here to stay.

Outdoor dining that is.

ALSO, the great purge is getting a lot of New Yorkers to leave to the suburbs. The town in PA where I'm moving to once things are finished being u/c is full of New Yorkers. Its like I never left lol. In fact, when I was in the sales office a few months ago, a couple from Staten Island, with thier thick accents and sun burned tanning skin said hello. Conversation started off on the right track, as they are not a fan of Comrade DeBlasio, and its at that moment, that I was in good hands.

So the suburbs from a real estate standpoint are seeing opportunity!

I suppose another benefit is a health benefit. Aside from the mental illness created, people are actually out walking and doing exercise because they are bored at home. Not so much now, because things reopened, but in the beginning. So this virus has taught many folks lessons. A hard lesson, but it is a lesson in some way or another. Possibly people might be more mindful of how they treat their bodies, as the purge is not kind to those that don't heed health advice.

Same things is happening in São Paulo. As we don't have our version of suburbs down here, young people are heading en masse to the middle and small cities upstate, to their parents home as they are either unemployed or working for home, make pointless to pay the high rents here in São Paulo capital.

I believe things will eventually return to normal and they will head back. On the other hand, São Paulo upstate is not like New York upstate. It's full of dynamic, sizeable and fast growing cities.

[chris08876]

^^^^

The thing is with the U.S., is that if certain cities do not curtail their pricing, and make it affordable for the masses, the suburbs will continue to thrive. I've been noticing a big uptick in mid density developments, multi-family housing in the suburbs. In places that one wouldn't think.

From the perspective of our core cities, I see this as a massive boon. I'd rather much see the developments within city limits and not in some suburban town alongside some highway, where the shopping center is a giant parking lot with 10-12 big box stores.

I'm a big advocate of affordable housing, and I really see a lot of our cities going down the gutter due to pricing. Some are becoming so expensive to the masses that if not curtailed, the future masses will seek else wear.

I'm of the notion (I get a lot of flack for this on SSP, idk why) that cities should be accessible for all. I do not like the gated community aspect of things. In my kneck of the woods or tri-state, we really need to jam the affordably housing down the throats of communities. I wish we would have government supported housing. While some may not be a fan of the commie looking housing, I see it as a necessity down the line, to meet the demands of the cities.

I also see it as a failure when commute times have to rise simply because our mismanagement of our cities prices people out. It would be one thing if we had high speed rail or bullet trains, to cut down the time, but the reality is that its almost all travel via car.

The U.S. under builds sadly. Its always underwhelming with respect to housing thanks to asinine regulations (check NJ's requirements for construction, they are absurd, and environmental wise, compared to a more conservative state like PA, they really make the soft cost stage a massive hassle).

I do not understand why cost of living is not the #1 priority with some states or locations. It is the number one factor of why people either move or take their business elsewear, and its a massive detriment to our cities.

The best thing Covid can do is cause a big collapse in an already inflated real estate market. Prices are inflated beyond reality. I hope we see a massive collapse in pricing and costs. We already are in some areas, with prices dropping dramatically. This is good, it will empower people to move to the cities. Give them an opportunity.

California for example, needs a housing collapse. It will be better for the state in the long run. Houses are overvalued there. Likewise with NYC or Long Island. This rise in pricing by 20% when homes are put on the market is pure greed, and needs to be curtailed for the overall well being of the future masses.

[10023]

How are cities meant to “curtail their pricing”?

And aren’t high prices a sign of a thriving city?

Within reason of course, but even in London it’s just Belgravia and a few streets in Knightsbridge that are effectively dead zones because the properties are used as investments and not homes. Otherwise it’s really hard to say that cities like London, New York and San Francisco aren’t “thriving” to a greater extent than more affordable ones like Rochester or Cleveland.

Suburbs will always be cheaper, at least in terms of property prices per square foot, because one isn’t paying such a premium for location and there are more properties within a given time-based travel radius.

[the urban politician]

So I went for a bike ride yesterday in suburbia and there is one thing I'm starting to notice more of.

At least in Chicagoland, I've observed for as long as I can remember, that you see very few people in their 20's and early 30's in the burbs. It's like they all just left!

Well, I'm starting to see that demographic more. Instead of automatically moving off to the city or elsewhere, more of these youngsters are staying in Mom's basement, or perhaps a pad in the burbs.

Covid times....

[SIGSEGV]

Well looks like I'm doing it... got an offer accepted on a loop condo. Now I just need to find a subletter...

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by chris08876

^^^^
The thing is with the U.S., is that if certain cities do not curtail their pricing, and make it affordable for the masses, the suburbs will continue to thrive. I've been noticing a big uptick in mid density developments, multi-family housing in the suburbs. In places that one wouldn't think.

You have it reversed. Suburbs will thrive because cities are expensive. Those urban-oriented multifamily complexes you see going up everywhere in NJ suburbia are a reaction to urban preferences but higher barriers to entry in the urban center.

[Acajack]

On Radio-Canada's national news this morning there was a report on a study of real estate transactions in Canada since the spring.

In Canada's major metro areas, the average distance between place of residence and place of work has generally increased by 30-40+% since the spring.

They also mentioned as an example that in my metro area (Ottawa-Gatineau) the average one-way commuting distance increased from 12 km to 17 km.

[iheartthed]

Panic buying in the suburbs during the pandemic is a bad idea, according to this Bloomberg op-ed:

A Pandemic Is a Terrible Time to Buy Real Estate

More than 40 % of Americans are working from home, and among them the urge to “work nest” is strong. My sister-in-law turned the family shed into a “shoffice,” with charming homemade curtains hiding the tools and a pillow for the pandemic puppy. Surging home prices suggest that many who are working from home and find themselves shedless are in the market for a bigger house.

I hope to put a big yellow “Slow” sign on home-buying in a pandemic. The housing market may be soaring because of bad information and short-term thinking. You don’t know whether bosses will make work-from-home permanent or who will be targeted for downsizing. You may come to rue buying at a time when inventory is so low and prices so high.

Regret is already in the air. LendEDU, a financial information website, surveyed 1,000 mortgage holders in August and found that most people who bought houses after March 2020 already regretted taking out a mortgage. The survey is not scientific, but the results make sense. Record low mortgage rates enticed new buyers, while urban hotspots for the virus drove people out of cities. In July, there was a 56% drop in Manhattan property sales and a 44% increase in the city’s neighboring suburbs. Home prices in nearby New Jersey counties increased over 11% while New York City prices fell 13% compared to last summer.

...

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...emic-says-wait