National Economy

[lio45]

Originally Posted by LightingGuy

0.6% GDP growth vs ~0.75% population growth

Yep, we're among the economies that are declining at the moment (on a per capita basis). It was my point with the posts above. Montreal has an easier time buying buses than Westmount, while Westmount has an easier time buying buses-per-capita than Montreal. Both are "true".

And of course quality of life for the average Canadian is on track to continue to erode, but a subset of the population (who disproportionately show up at the voting booth) will become even wealthier.

It's an interesting experiment: a Ponzi Scheme that's government-backed and government-boosted while a good chunk of the electorate wants it to continue. Somewhat uncharted territory, that might (based on history) end with the Renter-For-Life class wanting to eat the Landed Gentry. (Or not, because we're nice; it's Canada.)

[Nite]

Originally Posted by LightingGuy

This is a bit misleading in my opinion. Canada's population growth is significantly higher than any of the other countries. Also the paper does not state whether or not these values are inflation-adjusted.

0.6% GDP growth vs ~0.75% population growth and 2% inflation over the same time frame. Our GDP per capita in real terms is likely negative.

https://betterdwelling.com/canada-ha...cted-to-erode/

The annualized rate of growth for the quarter was 3.1% and population growth is well below 3% for the year. so GDP per capita also grew in the quarter.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fir...0the%20quarter.

[LightingGuy]

Not sure how they're getting 3.1% annualized if the quarterly growth was 0.6%

0.6% × 4 = 2.4%

And our population grew by 2.7% last year. This year we are on pace to beat that number.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by LightingGuy

Not sure how they're getting 3.1% annualized if the quarterly growth was 0.6%

0.6% × 4 = 2.4%

And our population grew by 2.7% last year. This year we are on pace to beat that number.

Q1 growth was .8%.

[LightingGuy]

Originally Posted by Nite

Canada has the fastest growing economy of the G7 for the first quarter of 2023



https://www.oecd.org/sdd/na/GDP-Growth-Q123.pdf

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Q1 growth was .8%.

I was referring to the chart he posted previous to his last post, quoted above, showing it was 0.6%

[Nite]

Originally Posted by LightingGuy

Not sure how they're getting 3.1% annualized if the quarterly growth was 0.6%

0.6% × 4 = 2.4%

And our population grew by 2.7% last year. This year we are on pace to beat that number.

it now me coming up with 3.1% it's statscan
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fir...0the%20quarter

[whatnext]

Any bets on how much of our money Justin is prepared to give away this time?

Stellantis Weighs Offer From Canada to Save Battery Plant
By Laura Dhillon Kane
June 6, 2023 at 8:09 AM PDT

Stellantis NV and LG Energy Solution Ltd. are reviewing an offer from the Canadian and Ontario governments to salvage an electric-vehicle battery plant in Windsor, across the border from Detroit.

The carmaker and its South Korean partner announced the $4.1-billion plant in 2022 but halted construction last month amid a dispute over subsidies. The companies are seeking public money on par with the incentives in the US Inflation Reduction Act.

Ontario said last week it would pay one-third of the subsidy for the companies. The overall amount is likely to be more than the C$13 billion ($9.7 billion) Canada offered to Volkswagen AG for a similar project. Although the Volkswagen plant is larger, the Stellantis factory is set to begin production sooner and would benefit from the fact that the IRA offers production subsidies that phase out starting in 2030 and end entirely in 2033....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...&sref=x4rjnz06

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Any bets on how much of our money Justin is prepared to give away this time?

Stellantis Weighs Offer From Canada to Save Battery Plant
By Laura Dhillon Kane
June 6, 2023 at 8:09 AM PDT

Stellantis NV and LG Energy Solution Ltd. are reviewing an offer from the Canadian and Ontario governments to salvage an electric-vehicle battery plant in Windsor, across the border from Detroit.

The carmaker and its South Korean partner announced the $4.1-billion plant in 2022 but halted construction last month amid a dispute over subsidies. The companies are seeking public money on par with the incentives in the US Inflation Reduction Act.

Ontario said last week it would pay one-third of the subsidy for the companies. The overall amount is likely to be more than the C$13 billion ($9.7 billion) Canada offered to Volkswagen AG for a similar project. Although the Volkswagen plant is larger, the Stellantis factory is set to begin production sooner and would benefit from the fact that the IRA offers production subsidies that phase out starting in 2030 and end entirely in 2033....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...&sref=x4rjnz06

Enough to seal the deal, one hopes.

[whatnext]

Is this an economy issue or political?

Canada halts activity at Asian development bank, looks to review its membership
The Canadian Press

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says Canada will halt all government-led activity at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank after a Canadian citizen tendered his resignation from the financial institution.

Bob Pickard said in a tweet today that he resigned as the bank's global communications chief because the bank is "dominated" by members of the Chinese Communist Party.

The bank called the allegations "categorically false" in a statement and said "no one state or political party has any say over the strategic or operational direction of the bank."

Canada joined the bank in 2017 and holds less than one per cent of the voting power, in contrast with China, which holds more than a quarter of the voting power......

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-h...ship-1.1933171

[kwoldtimer]

Political, one hopes.

[LightingGuy]

Thanks to the recent interest rate hike, and the Fed staying put, the Canadian dollar has been gaining strength. Curious if we break 1.30 CDN per 1.00 USD (currently we're at 1.33)

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by LightingGuy

Thanks to the recent interest rate hike, and the Fed staying put, the Canadian dollar has been gaining strength. Curious if we break 1.30 CDN per 1.00 USD (currently we're at 1.33)

With the Fed signalling two more rate increases this year, we'll be looking at another .5% over current rates.

[Truenorth00]

Article on the cleantech investment being sucked south because of the IRA:

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6879129

I wonder how much our ridiculous real estate market and lack of investment capital just compounds these trends.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Article on the cleantech investment being sucked south because of the IRA:

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6879129

I wonder how much our ridiculous real estate market and lack of investment capital just compounds these trends.

Well given they are giving Calgary examples I suspect the massive subsidies for business are a bigger factor than housing costs.

Like Canada the US has its areas with high housing costs. San Francisco, New York etc.

Clearly the US was to be dominant global player in clean tech and its willing to spend money to build that industry out.

[ssiguy]

Who cares about productivity and future economic health when all we have to do is build more housing? My sister was denied a small $50k small business loan but was approved by the same bank at the same time for a $700k mortgage. This is how warped our economy has become. I know a guy who is a trained engineer from UBC but has become a real estate agent because he makes vastly more money, gets huge tax credits, and works far fewer hours to boot.

Canada's GDP was almost twice Australia's in 1990 and now we are only 25% larger. The gap between US & Canadian per-capita GDP hasn't been this high since the 1920s. In terms of GDP produced per-hour worked {labour productivity}, we rank #15th just above Spain at 16 and Italy at 17.

Canada is getting poorer by the minute due to low productivity growth, stagnant wages, and soaring cost of living and especially housing. The problem is that NONE of the parties are even slightly interested in changing course.

[casper]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Who cares about productivity and future economic health when all we have to do is build more housing? My sister was denied a small $50k small business loan but was approved by the same bank at the same time for a $700k mortgage. This is how warped our economy has become. I know a guy who is a trained engineer from UBC but has become a real estate agent because he makes vastly more money, gets huge tax credits, and works far fewer hours to boot.

Canada's GDP was almost twice Australia's in 1990 and now we are only 25% larger. The gap between US & Canadian per-capita GDP hasn't been this high since the 1920s. In terms of GDP produced per-hour worked {labour productivity}, we rank #15th just above Spain at 16 and Italy at 17.

Canada is getting poorer by the minute due to low productivity growth, stagnant wages, and soaring cost of living and especially housing. The problem is that NONE of the parties are even slightly interested in changing course.

If your saying we have to many realtors in Canada and they are over paid. I would agree with you on that. Especially in Vancouver.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by casper

If your saying we have to many realtors in Canada and they are over paid. I would agree with you on that. Especially in Vancouver.

Realtors aren't the problem - the housing market is. The only reason we have so many realtors making so much money is because the housing market is so lucrative.

People aren't stupid, they make decisions that are the best or most profitable for themselves. In Canada, that means being a realtor instead of pursuing a career as a doctor, engineer, business owner, etc. Unfortunately for us collectively, realtors add a lot less value to the broader economy.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Realtors aren't the problem - the housing market is. The only reason we have so many realtors making so much money is because the housing market is so lucrative.

People aren't stupid, they make decisions that are the best or most profitable for themselves. In Canada, that means being a realtor instead of pursuing a career as a doctor, engineer, business owner, etc. Unfortunately for us collectively, realtors add a lot less value to the broader economy.

Compared to many professions, realtors are in a rather tenuous line of work. When the market is hot it's great, but I've met some realtors (as well as car salespeople btw) who haven't seemed very happy when the market is in decline. Value to the economy or community is almost irrelevant when you just need an income.

[casper]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Realtors aren't the problem - the housing market is. The only reason we have so many realtors making so much money is because the housing market is so lucrative.

People aren't stupid, they make decisions that are the best or most profitable for themselves. In Canada, that means being a realtor instead of pursuing a career as a doctor, engineer, business owner, etc. Unfortunately for us collectively, realtors add a lot less value to the broader economy.

Cut realtor commissions by 50% and you will likely see the number of realtors go down. The ones that remain will need to become more efficient.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by casper

Cut realtor commissions by 50% and you will likely see the number of realtors go down. The ones that remain will need to become more efficient.

As far as I know, realtors are free to set their own commission rates; and clients are allowed to negotiate. It's a free market - they set their rates at what people are willing to pay; and more realtors means more competition for competitive rates. There's no body that can just wave a wand and cut all commission fees by 50%.