Worldwide Demographics

[Crawford]

South Korea has crazy demographics. Something like 80% of women under 20 claim they don't want children, so it's probably gonna get much worse.

There's a celebrated "three no's" - no sex, no marriage, no kids, until men start treating women better.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Crawford

South Korea has crazy demographics. Something like 80% of women under 20 claim they don't want children, so it's probably gonna get much worse.

There's a celebrated "three no's" - no sex, no marriage, no kids, until men start treating women better.

One wonders if they realize this is making all of their problems worse—worse economy, worse demographics, and (honestly) likely worse treatment of women by men.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

South Korea has crazy demographics. Something like 80% of women under 20 claim they don't want children, so it's probably gonna get much worse.

There's a celebrated "three no's" - no sex, no marriage, no kids, until men start treating women better.

And as result we have one of the fastest transitions anywhere (Puerto Rico tracking close behind, but they have the emigration).

As recent as 2000, there were 640k births in South Korea for only 248k deaths. It seems by 2024, South Korea birth/death ration will become worst than Japan, a country that whose demographic transition predate South Korea by 3-4 decades.

[mhays]

South Korea also lacks women of childbearing age. It's worse than the 0.78 would suggest.

The peak populations by far are in their early 40s to early 60s. The next "boom" has 20% fewer people per peak year, and they're already 30 years old. Teenagers are literally 50% fewer. Small kid numbers plummet way beyond even that.

[Yuri]

Folha:

Portugal speeds up the regularization of migrants from Brazil

Apparently, there are 150,000 in line. There are tens of millions of Brazilians holding or eligible to hold European citizenships and still Portugal is making things even easier: after one year living and working there, any Brazilian can require Portuguese citizenship.

Portugal seems to be "going full Germany or Sweden" and it's very aggressive on attracting immigrants. Even though population is already declining there, they're in a much better position than Eastern Europe, where emigration is much higher and immigration is negligible. There are problems though: xenophobia and racism are quite strong on Portuguese society.

[New Brisavoine]

Evolution of Toulouse: aerial views 2002 >> 2022

Toulouse is the 3rd fastest growing metro area in Europe after Stockholm and Oslo. Between the 1999 and 2020 censuses, its population (within constant borders) grew by more than 38% (i.e. +1.57% per year), reaching 1.47 million at the 2020 census.

[MolsonExport]

^interesting how patch-worky the development has been, with almost random fields vs. developed subdivisions.

[New Brisavoine]

The largest French and German cities in 1806 (population within municipal limits):
- Paris: 660,000
- Berlin: 182,000
- Hamburg: 130,000
- Lyon: 114,000
- Marseille: 99,000
- Bordeaux: 94,000
- Rouen: 87,000
- Nantes: 80,000
- Lille: 71,000
- Breslau: 64,000
- Dresden: 62,000
- Königsberg: 60,000
- Strasbourg: 51,000
- Toulouse: 51,000
- Danzig: 46,000
- Orléans: 43,000
- Metz: 42,000
- Nîmes: 41,000
- Cologne: 40,000
- Munich: 40,000
- Frankfurt: 40,000
- Amiens: 40,000
- Caen: 36,000
- Bremen: 36,000
- Montpellier: 33,000
- Leipzig: 32,000
- Reims: 32,000
- Brest: 31,000
- Clermont-Ferrand: 31,000
- Nancy: 31,000
- Rennes: 29,000
- Angers: 29,000
- Troyes: 29,000
- Besançon: 29,000
- Augsburg: 28,000
- Brunswick: 28,000
- Toulon: 28,000
- Saint-Etienne: 28,000
- Le Havre: 28,000
- Aachen: 27,000
- Dunkirk: 27,000
- Versailles: 27,000
- Nuremberg: 25,000
- Stuttgart: 22,000
- Roubaix-Tourcoing: 21,000
- Nice: 20,000
- Düsseldorf: 13,000
- Essen: 3,500
- Lens: 2,300

For comparison: NYC 80,000, Boston 30,000, Québec City 17,000, Montréal 11,000.

And a century later. Population in 1911 within a radius of 8 km (5 miles) from the city center (which covered the extent of European cities back then, except for Paris and Berlin where I've used a larger territory, i.e. the land area of today's city-state of Berlin).

Population in 1911:
- Paris: 4,486,700
- Berlin: 3,737,300
- Hamburg: 1,208,300
- Leipzig: 682,400
- Dresden: 658,200
- Munich: 613,600
- Cologne: 594,900
- Lyon: 578,200
- Essen: 576,100
- Breslau: 558,500
- Marseille: ca. 545,000
- Frankfurt-Offenbach: 533,400
- Nuremberg-Fürth: 415,400
- Düsseldorf-Neuss: 404,600
- Hanover: 395,400
- Lille: 373,100
- Stuttgart: 361,300
- Roubaix-Tourcoing: 357,300
- Bordeaux: 351,300
- Strasbourg: 240,100
- Rouen: 220,100
- Saint-Etienne: 203,100
- Nantes: 198,000
- Le Havre: 176,300
- Lens: 159,000
- Nancy: 158,800
- Nice: 157,00
- Toulouse: 155,400

Not all the largest German cities are there in 1911, but I've made the calculations for most of the largest ones.

[Yuri]

The United States just released the stats regarding births and deaths for 2023: 3,588,013 births, lowest number since 1979, when the population was smaller by 110 million people. Deaths declined (3,065,607), the first year without Covid impacting, but they're above 2019.

In 2007, the US registered 4,316,234 births and 2,423,712 deaths for a natural growth of 1,892,552. In 2019, this number declined to mere 892,000 and plunged to 200,000 in 2021 during the massive number of deaths due Covid. And now it's at 522,000.

The US will probably post negative natural growth within 3-4 years. France might get there in 2024 already. Britain too. Then, only a handful developed countries will be left with positive natural growth, but barely, relying on massive immigration to keep up: Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland and maybe Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.

[Crawford]

I bet natural growth increases in the U.S. over the next few years.

2023 would still have Covid-related deaths, there was a massive drop in family formation/coupling during Covid, affecting births, and immigration is still ramping up after the Covid/Former POTUS shutdown.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I bet natural growth increases in the U.S. over the next few years.

2023 would still have Covid-related deaths, there was a massive drop in family formation/coupling during Covid, affecting births, and immigration is still ramping up after the Covid/Former POTUS shutdown.

I don't know: there is a very strong trend all over the world starting somewhere on the late 2000's to mid-2010's and births are plunging badly everywhere on the developed world and in many middle-income countries. Another trend might emerge, but there is no sign of changes.

We'll soon find out anyway as CDC is now releasing numbers monthly and we'll have January numbers within a month. My bet is for 2027 as the first year on negative ground.

[mhays]

Yuri, where did you find that?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

Yuri, where did you find that?

mhays, I find easier to go straight to Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr..._United_States

"Demographics of country X" and go to "Vital Stats". They update almost at real time. And obviously they have the sources linked. In the US case, it's the CDC.

[Yuri]

Homeless Population

Few weeks ago, I came across another update regarding homeless population in Brazil (which has grown ten fold (!!!) since 2013) and as it's a phenomenon that's been observed everywhere, I guess it's demographic related.

According to this last update, there is now 227,000 people living on streets in Brazil, of which 89,000 in São Paulo (state), 23,000 in Minas Gerais, 20,000 in Rio de Janeiro (state), 11,000 (Bahia) and 7,000 (Distrito Federal). In São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, about 80%-90% of the state number is on the capital's metro areas; 11,000 of them are foreigners (this number surprised me), 32% of which from Angola and 30% from Venezuela; 68% are Mixed/Black, 31% White; 47% states "family problems" are the reason for being on streets, 40% mentions "unemployment", 30% "drug/alcohol issues", 26% "house eviction".

In the US, there are 582,000 people in homelessness and even though it's been growing since 2016, it actually decreased from 647,000 (2007) to 550,000 (2016); 171,000 are in California, 74,000 in New York, 26,000 in Florida, 25,000 in Washington (state), 24,000 in Texas, 18,000 in Oregon; Los Angeles County counts 65,000, New York City 62,000, San Francisco-San Jose metro area (28,000), King County (Seattle) 13,000.

[mhays]

A comparison between countries would be difficult. The local numbers vary widely depending on the enthusiasm and methods of those counting. And the US doesn't have the vast gray area called favelas. I'm guessing those residents aren't considered homeless?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

A comparison between countries would be difficult. The local numbers vary widely depending on the enthusiasm and methods of those counting. And the US doesn't have the vast gray area called favelas. I'm guessing those residents aren't considered homeless?

Of course not. Favela definition is illegal housing. According to the 2010 Census, 11 million Brazilian lived in favelas or 6% of population. 99% of those households were connected to the electric grid, 92% with the water system. Amenities such as fridges, TVs, oven are always present. They’re regular houses for poor people that doesn’t have the legal right over properties as they started as invasions over private or public land. As they grew during Brazilian explosive urbanization, the big ones became impossible to be removed.

Homeless people are the ones literally living on the streets over a period of time and the concept is pretty similar be it in the US or Brazil. As it has become a big problem in Brazil (numbers skyrocketed on the past 10 years), they’re closely monitored by every level of government but as it happens in the US, there is no solution at sight.

In São Paulo it became a massive problem, heavily centered in Downtown. The city is about to replace NY and LA to have the dubious distinction of having the largest homeless population in the world. And as it happens to California, people all over the country (and from abroad) ends up on SP streets.

[mhays]

That's why I call favelas a gray area. Some might not be considered "housing" in the US, and their residents might be called homeless. I mean the more ramshackle varieties of favela.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

That's why I call favelas a gray area. Some might not be considered "housing" in the US, and their residents might be called homeless. I mean the more ramshackle varieties of favela.

Favelas are only small share of Brazilian households and those ramschackle is only a tiny share of them. But does the US have sections of ramschackle favelas where residents are considered homeless? I wasn't aware of that.

Tents on sidewalks don't qualify as favelas, be in São Paulo or Los Angeles. It's homelessness.

Homelessness is not exclusively tied with extreme poverty. It's way more complex than that. Brazil hasn't become poorer on the past ten years and yet homelessness has grown ten fold.

I randomly dropped Google Maps pin in São Paulo's largest favela: https://www.google.com/maps/@-23.613...8192?entry=ttu and on the second largest: https://www.google.com/maps/@-23.615...8192?entry=ttu . And that's a poor neighbourhood on São Paulo far flung districts: https://www.google.com/maps/@-23.499...8192?entry=ttu . Not a favela, but it's not a world apart from them.

Those are obviously houses, shops and have nothing to do with the homelessness issue.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Yuri

The United States just released the stats regarding births and deaths for 2023: 3,588,013 births, lowest number since 1979, when the population was smaller by 110 million people. Deaths declined (3,065,607), the first year without Covid impacting, but they're above 2019.

In 2007, the US registered 4,316,234 births and 2,423,712 deaths for a natural growth of 1,892,552. In 2019, this number declined to mere 892,000 and plunged to 200,000 in 2021 during the massive number of deaths due Covid. And now it's at 522,000.

The US will probably post negative natural growth within 3-4 years. France might get there in 2024 already. Britain too. Then, only a handful developed countries will be left with positive natural growth, but barely, relying on massive immigration to keep up: Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland and maybe Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.

Other countries releasing 2023 numbers and it's the same story: Greece, with 72,244 births and 129,587 deaths for a negative of -57,343. In 2008, it registered 118,302 births and 107,979 deaths. Once again, the same story: most of developed countries with recent peaks around 2008, slowly declining since then up to the late 20101s when decline sped up.

Netherlands too, that just recently joined the negative club, in 2022. In 2023, the 2nd year on negative, it was 163,818 births and 169,320 deaths. Births there started declining on the late 1960's, bottomed on the mid-1980's and started to grow again to reach 207k births in 2000 (a similar pattern was observed in Britain) for 140k deaths. Then, births started to slowly declined over the past 2020 years.

Poland, similar to Greece, with a continuous decline of births since the late 2000's: only 272k births in 2023 for 409k deaths. Poland has been on negative ground since 2013, and numbers ballooned from -17k to -137k last year. As recently as 2009, they registered 418k births. Not even the massive influx of Ukrainian refugees was enough to boost births.

Croatia, copy and past from Poland: 32,047 births and 51,319 deaths in 2023. In 2009, they got 44,577 births, declining by 1/4 today.And Croatia is a much more dramatic case as emigration is massive there.

Bulgaria, as Croatia, with massive emigration issues: 49,795 births and 89,972 deaths in 2023. In 2009, they got 80,956 births, declining by almost half in merely 14 years.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

That's why I call favelas a gray area. Some might not be considered "housing" in the US, and their residents might be called homeless. I mean the more ramshackle varieties of favela.

Yeah, those people aren't homeless. Many of those favelas are like 100 years old and have electricity. Some even have satellite dishes.