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Originally Posted by thegoatman
For some reason (maybe Trump getting elected had an effect) in 2016 there was a big spike in violent crime. Although it did taper off in '18 and '19.
I will say that probably the big reason was most of the crime was kept in the south and west neighborhoods. It sucks to say this but lets be honest, in previous years you could say "oh hey chicago is fine, avoid englewood, austin, etc. and you'll be fine". The thing is nowadays people are getting shot, robbed, carjacked, etc. left and right in previously "safe" areas like downtown, wicker park, west loop, etc.
One of the best things Rahm did (which progressives hate him for lol) was heavily focus on downtown. Despite what these goofy activists say who want downtown burned, if Downtown/the loop goes under, the whole city goes under. and Rahm made sure Downtown and other areas akin to that were kept safe and tidy.
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Focusing on downtown was a good thing, but focusing TOO much on downtown was NOT a good thing. And if you ask Rahm today, he will admit this and I have 2nd hand knowledge of this. Near the end of his term, he realized the blunder he made it giving TOO much attention to downtown and not giving some others to other parts. If you ever wonder why after a certain time Rahm started spending time in the neighborhoods on the south and west sides, and stopped announcing stuff downtown (minus some corporate relocation/expansion stuff), then now you know why. You need downtown and you need all the other neighborhoods - they have to exist together as a well oiled machine otherwise the city isn't going to function as much. Just remember that once upon a time in Chicago, decades ago, downtown was MUCH MUCH smaller and the neighborhoods ruled more supreme than today as far as economics go.
As far as crime goes - I think everyone knows that there's a current shootings problem downtown. Apart from that though, this idea that you're more likely to be robbed or beat up downtown than even a handful of years ago is utter horseshit. That is the perception on social media but that's not the actual reality. The increase of those types of crimes is lower today than it was downtown 5 years ago. There are a lot of people today heavily influenced by social media and thinking that a few incidents they read means that things are more out of control than they've ever been. Which is just false. Luckily, Chicago has amazingly transparent data when it comes to crime.
Let's just look at some actual data for a minute here.
Robberies for Near North Side + The Loop + Near South Side each yr thru 9/6
2022: 482
2021: 367
2020: 353
2019: 457
2018: 531
2017: 545
2016: 422
2015: 300
2014: 242
2013: 296
2012: 371
2011: 429
2010: 407
There was a major spike in 2016 and then even higher in 2017 and 2018, and 2019 was still almost as high as it is in 2022 so far. And as you can see, 2010 was less but then you know, you have to consider the population changes here. The per 100K robbery rate in 2010 of these 3 areas was 310.3 per 100K and in 2022 (given 2020 population - the only thing we have) it is 273 per 100K. The robbery rate today is actually lower than it was in 2010 in these downtown areas.
Aggravated Assaults For Near North Side + The Loop + Near South Side each yr thru 9/6
2022: 291
2021: 227
2020: 241
2019: 270
2018: 242
2017: 246
2016: 225
2015: 175
2014: 162
2013: 160
2012: 194
2011: 182
2010: 250
The per 100K rate in 2010 was 190.6 vs. 164.8 in 2022. While 2022 here has the most in raw number, it's not that far above 2019. The actual spike happened between 2014 and 2016. And 2020 and 2021 were on par with 2016 and 2017. Yet, again - nobody back then was talking about the spike. It was only since 2020 and 2021 despite being about the same number of incidents.
And of course, I want to look at some of the north side areas because people up here will say the same thing specifically about the non-homicide violent crimes like robbery
Robberies for Lincoln Park, Lakeview, Lincoln Square, North Center, Uptown, and Edgewater each yr thru 9/6
2022: 433
2021: 295
2020: 306
2019: 324
2018: 401
2017: 448
2016: 493
2015: 359
2014: 366
2013: 538
2012: 569
2011: 533
2010: 562
You know what's interesting? Some people were freaking out in these areas even last year. Look - last year had the least amount of reported robberies in this area in over a decade at least (pretty sure it would be way more than that if I showed you more years). And while there's been an increase, 2016 and 2017 still had more robberies, and 2010 - 2013 (at least) had quite a bit more despite having a smaller population too.
Regardless - where was the outrage in 2016 and 2017? Where was it pre 2014?
Aggravated Battery for Lincoln Park, Lakeview, Lincoln Square, North Center, Uptown, and Edgewater each yr thru 9/6
2022: 207
2021: 190
2020: 204
2019: 226
2018: 184
2017: 188
2016: 216
2015: 174
2014: 197
2013: 203
2012: 268
2011: 287
2010: 278
2022 so far is even less than 2019 by a little bit and pretty similar to most other years back to 2013. And still a bit less than before 2013.
Again, my focus isn't necessarily to say "wow things are just low today." I think the rates have been too high in a lot of the city (not all - there's big chunks with relatively low rates) but to ask where the hell the business community leaders were and why they chose recently to come out and give crap. One of my big hypotheses is that they are paying way too much attention to chatter on social media. These people should be smarter than this and be able to do exactly what I did (or someone who works for them...) and see that in reality it's not necessarily any different than it's been in some previous years pre-2020. I am going to give them tons of crap for this and don't care. They should be smarter than this.
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Either way, I hope we get a new mayor next year. Hoping for either Buckner or Vallas. Be hard on crime, clean the CTA up (and expand service), and bring downtown back to its previous glory and focus on economic expansion. Basically everything Rahm did. He was a law and order centrist democrat that didn't bow down to the wacko progressives like Lightfoot. One of Chicago's best mayors.
Glad to see Mcdonalds continued investment in the city too.
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You clearly don't actually pay attention to what Lightfoot really says if you think she bows down to progressives. She's definitely not progressive and most progressives hate her right now too. Unless you believe that making some economic development projects on the south and west sides somehow counts as progressive (it doesn't).
Vallas doesn't seem to offer any real solutions and he's responsible for convincing Rahm to shut down a bunch of schools on the south and west sides. That led big time to some things declining in those areas. That guy would not be good for the city as a whole.
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