Salt Lake City: Official Development News Thread - Part 5

[RC14]

I suspect there will be a surge in travel this next year due to the effects of quarantine fatigue from 2020. However, I'm not sure if or when convention and business travel will recover and that accounts for a large chunk of our downtown economy. Most of the major downtown hotels are built around large conventions and many of our restaurants and bars feed off of them.

I am still optimistic, long-term but I also believe that people who are acting like everything is fine will be blindsided when the full economic impact of this is realized.

[Boz]

Originally Posted by New_Future_Mayor

Some people like those things.

Some like restaurants, coffee shops, grocery stores, shopping, entertainment, parks, plazas and other things right out their front door.

I'd change that from some to most, as our demographic clearly shows.

And most everyone likes the things you mentioned, and it's all abundantly available... we're just used to walking further or driving.

[Boz]

Originally Posted by jedikermit

Had all of those things for twenty years, was incredibly glad to leave behind the work and money involved in maintaining yards etc for a condo. My next move will be into downtown proper; I can't wait.

I can see that. I plan to have a place downtown as well as maintain my suburban home in West Jordan.

For me, the cost in maintaining my yard and home is more than worth the value in terms of money.

[RC14]

I think there are still only a few complexes downtown where you can live and truly have everything at your doorstep. When I lived at Palladio I felt like that. The complex itself isn't the most urban but the location is excellent. Where I live now, I am only a couple blocks outside of true downtown but it feels allot different, especially in the winter.

Thankfully, downtown is expanding and in as short as 1-3 years the area will feel much more connected to the rest of downtown. Maybe I was just spoiled before.

[Wasatch Wasteland]

Originally Posted by Marvland

Love your optimism. I hope you're right. But you're not. Coming from a very civically active a restaurant and bar owner who is really sick of press zoom interviews about the "challenges facing our industry". In Utah, $2.8 billion in lost revenue in an industry than runs on razor thin margins. 500 restaurants and bars in Utah gone forever thus far. 500 more on the brink. Almost all rural restaurants outside of heavy tourist zones effectively wiped out, nationally (read that again). Anybody still alive is living on the fumes of the April stimulus. All supporting F&B downtown (U of U, office, cultural events, theater, concerts) is gone. We are in the middle of that massive wave of closings right now. Some of them are my friends and my family. My enterprises have survived thus far but that could change in an instant. The weird thing is that we here in SLC are exceedingly lucky. We are open. Sorry to be frank, I love this forum, but some of you are straight up myopic. Cities will come back. They always do. But cities do blow right now. Good chunk of my family is in LA and San Fran. It blows. IMHO there are two types of urbanism: Urbanism from before March 2020 and Urbanism from after March 2020. We need to start really thinking about the 2nd one. Because reading some of this pablum is like reading arguments from a thousand years ago.

It is absolutely fascinating how you think that you’re not being the myopic one here...

How about Instead of this end of the world “pablum?” let’s discuss solutions and near term practical changes in strategy to urbanism from “before March 2020.” To say its thousand year old thinking tells me you are considering very little of the broader urban theory spectrum.

Human habits, desires, and patterns that have been consistent across all of civilization and history don’t change permanently in 6 months. Yes, they do stretch, shrink, shift, and move, but they don’t disappear.

Sorry to be frank. But you’re thinking extraordinarily short term, and THAT is what causes cities to fail.
������

[Always Sunny in SLC]

I agree that restaurants are being obliterated right now and for several years we will be woefully underserved as demand will far outstrip supply, but I don’t believe that out of the ashes won’t come new businesses to meet that demand. My guess 2021 will be awful at first and solid the second a half. Then 2022 will be gang busters, but still too few restaurants until the second half of the year as new ventures come online. This is from 50k feet, but I don’t want to forget that thousands of dreams and retirements are being devastated in the process.

[ThePusherMan]

The difference in perspective of the last year from people who were able to work from home and the rest of us, particularly those of us that work in the food and beverage industry is massive. People outside of the hospitality industry simply will be unable to grasp what has occurred financially and emotionally to our industry and will never be able to really understand the destruction of so many livelihoods, hopes, and dreams. Marvland is being doom and gloom because he’s had a closer look at the destruction and uncaring of those in power. Hell I’ve had my heart broken by my own investors and regulars who I considered friends over and over this year as our industry has been gutted, scape goated, and offered little support. My staff has felt like they are risking their health every day for the past year to continue to serve the public and now we aren’t even priority for receiving the vaccine. While I do think the industry will recover its going to take more time for the cream to rise to the top than all of you are thinking. A successful bar or restaurant isn’t something that just happens it’s the result of years of planning, passion, and expertise. I know it hasn’t been easy to work from home but I’m telling you that you didn’t get the short end of the stick. Be grateful there are people who love and are willing to do the work of serving you and being the stewards of your good time. Give us time to lick our wounds and don’t belittle the storm we’ve just weathered and the friends that we’ve lost.

[Gastroc]

Absolutely LOVE everything about this...

New plan puts trains in Downtown SLC underground – and makes the Rio Grande depot a real central station
https://www.buildingsaltlake.com/new...ntral-station/

[Gastroc]

Here is a more in-depth proposal with great detail:
https://www.buildingsaltlake.com/wp-...rande-Plan.pdf

After reading the buildingsaltlake article I can't help but be really frustrated and stupefied that we have two amazing (already existing) central stations in RioGrand and Union Pacific yet we somehow ended up with an atrocity that is laughably considered Salt Lake Central Station at 600 W. It blows my mind at some of the decisions people make in this state...

[Ironweed]

[QUOTE=Gastroc;9146410]Absolutely LOVE everything about this...

New plan puts trains in Downtown SLC underground – and makes the Rio Grande depot a real central station
https://www.buildingsaltlake.com/new...ntral-station/

This would be a phenomenal achievement for SLC if it were built. Congratulations to Hatman for putting it together and out there!

Here is to a better 2021!

[bflatflat9]

[QUOTE=Ironweed;9146449]

Originally Posted by Gastroc

Absolutely LOVE everything about this...

New plan puts trains in Downtown SLC underground – and makes the Rio Grande depot a real central station
https://www.buildingsaltlake.com/new...ntral-station/

This would be a phenomenal achievement for SLC if it were built. Congratulations to Hatman for putting it together and out there!

Here is to a better 2021!

Yeah, I didn't read the whole thing, but didn't see any mention of Hatman.
Big UPS! Hatman. I'm sure they would be directed to you for specs., etc. .
Then again, rip-offs are around every corner.
I get the feeling the better idea (this) is a little late. Hopefully not.
'

[Atlas]

Hatman's real name is definitely there

[ajiuO]

Originally Posted by Gastroc

Here is a more in-depth proposal with great detail:
https://www.buildingsaltlake.com/wp-...rande-Plan.pdf

After reading the buildingsaltlake article I can't help but be really frustrated and stupefied that we have two amazing (already existing) central stations in RioGrand and Union Pacific yet we somehow ended up with an atrocity that is laughably considered Salt Lake Central Station at 600 W. It blows my mind at some of the decisions people make in this state...

They should keep it underground all the way to the refineries. I think it would be great to get rid of the north temple, 400s, & 600n overpasses. 600 north is not in good shape anyway. I think it would be nicer with just a normal freeway entrance where i15 goes over 600n

[Marvland]

Originally Posted by Wasatch Wasteland

Human habits, desires, and patterns that have been consistent across all of civilization and history don’t change permanently in 6 months. Yes, they do stretch, shrink, shift, and move, but they don’t disappear.

Sorry to be frank. But you’re thinking extraordinarily short term, and THAT is what causes cities to fail.
������

If you think society, cities, urbanism etc aren't changed fundentaly and, in many ways, permanently, you've been watching a different movie than me. You sound like a guy whose only substantive change was that now you do your work in your pajamas with a beer in your hand.

[Marvland]

Originally Posted by ThePusherMan

The difference in perspective of the last year from people who were able to work from home and the rest of us, particularly those of us that work in the food and beverage industry is massive. People outside of the hospitality industry simply will be unable to grasp what has occurred financially and emotionally to our industry and will never be able to really understand the destruction of so many livelihoods, hopes, and dreams. Marvland is being doom and gloom because he’s had a closer look at the destruction and uncaring of those in power. Hell I’ve had my heart broken by my own investors and regulars who I considered friends over and over this year as our industry has been gutted, scape goated, and offered little support. My staff has felt like they are risking their health every day for the past year to continue to serve the public and now we aren’t even priority for receiving the vaccine. While I do think the industry will recover its going to take more time for the cream to rise to the top than all of you are thinking. A successful bar or restaurant isn’t something that just happens it’s the result of years of planning, passion, and expertise. I know it hasn’t been easy to work from home but I’m telling you that you didn’t get the short end of the stick. Be grateful there are people who love and are willing to do the work of serving you and being the stewards of your good time. Give us time to lick our wounds and don’t belittle the storm we’ve just weathered and the friends that we’ve lost.

Amen to all of this. Cities and urbansims matter not one iota without culture. It's literally the glue that holds humans in the clumps we call cities. Culture is decimated currently. Flattened. It will come back but I'm shocked at how glibly some people gloss over the sheer loss of this year.

[Marvland]

Originally Posted by Gastroc

Absolutely LOVE everything about this...

New plan puts trains in Downtown SLC underground – and makes the Rio Grande depot a real central station
https://www.buildingsaltlake.com/new...ntral-station/

This is some of the most progressive urban thinking I have ever seen in this city. KUDOS Hatman and Co! Let's go make it a reality!

[Blah_Amazing]

First, I want to say Marvland that I think you points are valid. However, I see it differently than you and ThePusherMan, especially for Utah. (Note: these are just my opinions)

6 months ago, I would have been agreeing with you. Full stop. I thought we were witnessing the end of much of our economy. It seemed like every day I was hearing about a business I cared about closing their doors.

In states like Nevada, you are likely right in assuming they are severely damaged by this crisis, with reports saying it could take 5 years or more for them to recover.

I think New York will see a slow recovery, jumping in and out of stagnation for a while after a possibly good second half for 2021. But I think the state will recover in time. It depends though on if they can get their budgets in order without having to raise taxes beyond what they already have, particularly on the middle and upper middle class. They are the ones that determine a city's fate, not the billionaire class. I may be wrong, but I think it is too early to say one way or the other. I definitely don't see it becoming 'the next Detroit' that I have heard from some news sources. It's hotel business is in really bad shape though, with many famous hotels having closed permanently in recent months.

California is a different matter. It's such a large state that entire sections of it seem to be falling apart while the rest seem to be drinking champagne, eating their avocado toast, and posting on social media that they can't wait to get out of lockdowns and spend their money. This is definitely the state to watch, since I think it has the highest chance of becoming a disaster in the coming years - genuinely where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

However, this is not really proving to be the case in Utah. Our November unemployment report put us at 4.3% unemployment, one of the lowest in the country. This is compared to a year ago when we were hovering around 3% or so. Obviously this isn't catching everyone (for example: I am recently graduated college student, I still haven't found a job, and I don't count). Our overall highly diversified economy has allowed us to bounce back, at least for jobs in most industries except hospitality and retail. Those industries will take time and will impact certain places and people in Utah at greater percentages than other industries.

This restoration of a majority of the other jobs is a good sign for those hospitality and retail jobs though, since that means most Utahans have not actually been made significantly poorer from this crisis. When people start getting vaccinated and normal life resumes, they will be able to spend that money again in bars and restaurants in particular, allowing for those industries to recover.


I actually think the greatest threat to Utah and Salt Lake in the coming years is not a meltdown but a meltup. Housing costs are exploding in pretty much every city (my family's house has soared an estimated 18% in 2020). While other places may not be as dramatic as that, the state is still rapidly becoming an truely unaffordable place to live. With Utah likely to arise (just like after the 09 crisis) as one of the first states to recover, and with our population still skyrocketing both from internal growth (which is slowing, but is still faster than most states) and people moving in from other states, this trend is likely to continue. With the state already tens of thousands of housing units short, demand is unlikely to dissipate for many years to come.

This is why, even though the world seemed to be falling apart, every week or so another large housing project was getting announced for Salt Lake. This is proof that developers are seeing ever increasing demand for people to live in the downtown area and/or near public transit. Even now, the fact that we are not hearing that Kensington has been outright cancelled is evidence to this.

Salt Lake City will endure. This crisis did destroy a lot of dreams, particularly in hospitality and retail. It is important for them not to be forgotten or left behind and they deserve to be recognized and cared for.

However, over 90% of the state and similar amounts in the Salt Lake Valley are employed and doing well. If we see vaccination rates go up over the next month, I believe we can be very positive that by the end of this year Utah and Salt Lake will likely be fully recovered. Some places and businesses won't come back. They will likely be replaced by other similar business or by something else entirely. But the overall pace of development and growth downtown and around the metro area appears to be accelerating not decelerating. And that makes me very excited for what 2021 will bring.

[Makid]

I have a different viewpoint than most here. It is along the lines of Marvland and ThePusherMan though.

Until recently, I worked with and around those in the Hospitality and Convention industries. I have a lot of friends in these areas today and I have personally seen what has happened to them. These 2 industries had been booming in SLC until COVID.

Once COVID hit, the immediate conventions were cancelled. Businesses had to refund bookings (Hotels, Convention Centers, Planning/Registration services, Equipment Rentals, Staging, etc.). Many of these same companies offered discounts to keep usage going for the future, sort of a book/rent now for savings later. This worked slightly but more and more bookings were cancelled. Even today, nearly all conventions are cancelled through 2021. This could end up being a 2+ year gap in conventions and meetings for many of these companies.

Many of these companies, excluding hotels, are run by small teams of people with less than 50 employees. These companies don't have the resources to keep going for 2 years without interventions. The biggest problem is that you don't normally hear anything when a company of 50 or less employees lays people off or goes out of business.

Additionally, these companies provide such unique services, there could very well be a larger gap coming. Many large conventions and meetings use these companies to assist with the running of their shows. Without these services available locally, many of the conventions and meetings will move their shows to places that these services are available to them.

So far, these businesses have managed to hang on based on future bookings but they have also had to cut some staff to ensure they are viable at least through 2021. If the convention and meeting bookings don't start to pickup in the later portion of 2021, it is possible these businesses will go under.

The Business meeting and travel section won't come back until a large portion of the population has received the vaccine. My employer cut out all in person meetings and travel in Feb 2020 and may not authorize any in person meetings or travel until sometime in 2022. While this won't directly impact the convention services industry, it has a direct impact to the rest of the Hospitality industry, especially the Hotels, Restaurants, and Bars as well as the Airlines.

Lastly, I have a friend who own a restaurant near the Convention Center. His business has taken a big hit with the loss of the conventions and meetings as well as so many people working from home. He is able to keep going, though with reduced staff, due to an increase in take out orders from people living in the new apartments around downtown and from many of his regulars that are currently working at home. He has also been lucky in that he has benefited from the construction downtown as some of the workers do come by for lunch or dinner.

The problem though is that while he is doing okay, the bar just a few doors down is very possibly looking at closing soon. Without the after work and convention crowds, there isn't enough traffic to keep them going for too long.

We have been lucky with all of the recent housing construction around the downtown area. This increase in new residents and construction has helped to keep many of the bars and restaurants above water if even just slightly. Additionally, the campaign from the SL Chamber to spend now and get cards to spend again later has helped some of the retail businesses.

There are times that I think just how great SLC is with the timing of the various projects; Just as CCC helped the local economy during construction and opened after the Great Recession ended, we now have the CCH, 95S State, 650S Main, and West Quarter working through the COVID crisis. with their completions happening post Crisis. The workers for these projects and the numerous primarily residential projects throughout the city, have helped to keep many local restaurants going during their lunch breaks.

Overall, SLC won't take as big of a hit as many cities, larger and smaller, across all areas of the hospitality industry. We will however still take a big hit especially to the bars and convention/meeting industry that will last very likely until the middle of the decade. Without all the residential projects happening around downtown and throughout the city, I could see it taking nearly 10 years to recover to where we were just 1 year ago for our local bars and restaurants.

[ThePusherMan]

I don’t have the emotional energy to convince a handful of strangers on a forum about city development that I’m right about the things I’m talking about. I’m not guessing. This is my industry. This is Marvland’s industry and we’ve been in it for decades. Unemployment numbers mean literally nothing when huge industries find all of their employees under employed. I used to employ 21 people. I now employ 12 but those twelve are severely under employed. Some of them only working one 7 hour shift a week. I wish I had more hours for them but we’ve had to trim the fat to the bone to survive. My one bar lost over a million dollars in revenue this year. We had plans to open new concepts in the coming year and now those things on hold indefinitely. They certainly won’t be happening this year or the next. I’m just one F&B operator in a sea of entrepreneurs that are in the same sinking ship. I’m doing objectively better than most. Again, appreciate the optimism but we aren’t simply going to recover from this by summer time. The food and beverage scene will take years to recover to where it was and where it was about to be. You don’t simply replace great restaurants and bars with new ones because new ones aren’t guaranteed to be great. My prediction is we see a wave of bars and restaurants opened by opportunists from California with deep pockets who know nothing about the industry or what makes SLC great. Those bars and restaurants inherently suck because they are trying to be LA and it takes at least a decade to weed them out because the pent up demand from so many things closing will float it for a while.

[Orlando]

It's interesting to hear these two different but very real perspectives about the impact from covid. The hospitality industry is suffering big time, yet housing prices are skyrocketing. Why is it that housing prices are still soaring? Is it because the boom in the tech industry there? Is it because we are seeing an influx of people moving from more expensive larger cities to Utah, and thus driving up home prices and demand? Do we have stats that can explain al of this? I know that Texas and Idaho are having large influxes of people from California that are driving up house prices in those two states. A friend of mine moved from Seattle in 2016 and was able to buy a simlar home in SLC in cash. He & his wife bought their house in Seattle in 2011 for 400k, and sold it for about 1 million in 2016, and then paid 400k in cash for a similar size and style house in SLC. Similarly, my sister and brother-in-law moved from San Diego to Utah in 2006 and bought a condo in cash just on the appreciated value of their condo that they had for about 4 years in San Diego.