2020 Presidential Election Results by Top 50 MSA

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by Crawford

My mom is descended from Carpathian Germans. They resettled in Germany after WW2, as basically every Eastern Bloc nation kicked out ethnic Germans. They had been in Hungary/Ukraine/Romania since the Mongols.

A very large % of modern-day Germans have Germanic roots via Eastern Europe. And North America has sizable Carpathian German communities in Detroit and Toronto (and presumably other places). Large enough that they have major cultural centers and the like.

i had to look that one up, but i was aware of german communities all across eastern europe scattered practically all the way to the asian steppe after learning of volga germans.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

the individualist frontier mentality is much more entrenched in the midland, which was the early expansion spear west and settled earlier by early americans pushed/pulled into a weird deconstructed realm following the collapse of native societies by disease.

the northern tier was filled in more by large railroads transporting european immigrants from urban hubs in a much more established system, if not fully physically filled out space.

The Lower Midwest was also settled by a lot of Virginians and Kentuckians.

I'd actually argue that the the biggest factor in the northern tier is it was originally settled by Yankees from New England. Nearly everywhere settled by them (Upstate NY, Upper Midwest, San Francisco Bay Area) ended up realigning as left of center. The only real exception is the Mormon Belt, but Utah conservativism is really different in flavor from the anti-government individualism popular in the South and the Midlands.

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by eschaton

The Lower Midwest was also settled by a lot of Virginians and Kentuckians.

I'd actually argue that the the biggest factor in the northern tier is it was originally settled by Yankees from New England. Nearly everywhere settled by them (Upstate NY, Upper Midwest, San Francisco Bay Area) ended up realigning as left of center. The only real exception is the Mormon Belt, but Utah conservativism is really different in flavor from the anti-government individualism popular in the South and the Midlands.

yeah i mentioned the yankees too somewhere. i kind of got the feeling that they sputtered out relative to european immigration west of chicago, but they certainly were there early building out infrastructure if not communities.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Docere

Canada also has no Deep South or Appalachia equivalent and the most politically conservative region is the Prairies, especially Alberta and Saskatchewan (Manitoba is dominated by Winnipeg an older more "liberal" city, so its voting pattern is more mixed).

How are the maritime provinces characterized, politically?

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^^ yeah, the 4 great plains states are inverted from the eastern midwest. They get more red the further north you go:

ND (3 EV): +33.3
SD (3 EV): +26.2
NE (5 EV): +19.1
KS (6 EV): +15.2


But they're so sparsely populated that they don't move the poltical needle a ton in the Midwest overall.

It's worth noting North Dakota being the most conservative is actually a recent occurrence. It had the biggest swing towards Trump of any state in 2016 Historically the Great Plains were more liberal-leaning the further north you go.

Because so many counties are GOP, I'll flip things around and count the number of counties less than 70% Trump:

South Dakota: 33
Kansas: 25
North Dakota: 17
Nebraska: 15

While the only real Democratic counties left in the Dakotas are Native American, there still is some residual Democratic strength in the towns close to the border of Minnesota. It's only once you travel west into "sagebrush country" that it gets crazy red.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I'd actually argue that the the biggest factor in the northern tier is it was originally settled by Yankees from New England. Nearly everywhere settled by them (Upstate NY, Upper Midwest, San Francisco Bay Area) ended up realigning as left of center.

Yeah, the difference in the overall culture/attitude was palpable to me growing up in both Erie and Pittsburgh. Only 2 hours separating them, but quite different.

The way I explain it that people best seem to get the gist is that... the Erie area borders New York, the Pittsburgh area borders West Virginia.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by pj3000

How are the maritime provinces characterized, politically?

Federally, they're all basically still Liberal areas, though the Conservatives do decently in New Brunswick. Provincially it's harder to decipher, because the local Progressive Conservative parties tend to be very moderate. I believe the Progressive Conservative party in Newfoundland even has a Social Democratic wing.

Regardless, no one is really "anti-government" in the Maritimes.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by eschaton

The only real exception is the Mormon Belt, but Utah conservativism is really different in flavor from the anti-government individualism popular in the South and the Midlands.

What's interesting about that is the Mormons originally are Upstate NYers...

[Docere]

Originally Posted by pj3000

How are the maritime provinces characterized, politically?

Generally liberal/centrist. There's a strong loyalty to the Liberal Party there. Rightwing populism hasn't really taken off there despite it being very white, working class and rural; economically it is like Canada's Appalachia.

Canadian conservatism is more akin to the Republican Party of the 60s/70s/80s when the center of gravity was more in the West than it is now. It's based on regional grievances of a prosperous, upstart region (the Prairies) against the "eastern establishment" (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal).

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Federally, they're all basically still Liberal areas, though the Conservatives do decently in New Brunswick. Provincially it's harder to decipher, because the local Progressive Conservative parties tend to be very moderate. I believe the Progressive Conservative party in Newfoundland even has a Social Democratic wing.

Regardless, no one is really "anti-government" in the Maritimes.

Originally Posted by Docere

Generally liberal/centrist. There's a strong loyalty to the Liberal Party there. Rightwing populism hasn't really taken off there despite it being very white and working class; economically it is like Canada's Appalachia.

Canadian conservatism is more akin to the Republican Party of the 60s/70s/80s when the center of gravity was more in the West than it is now. It's based on regional grievances of a prosperous, upstart region (the Prairies) against the "eastern establishment" (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal).

Cool, thanks. I figured it was likely a "Canadian version" of Conservatism if it existed there, in comparison to a hard-right USA fuck off style.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by pj3000

What's interesting about that is the Mormons originally are Upstate NYers...

I remember reading a few years back that Utah Republicans in 2005 decided to solve the local homeless problem by...just building housing for everyone.

Republicans wouldn't do that anywhere else in the country. It's the old-school Yankee communitarian influence.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Cool, thanks. I figured it was likely a "Canadian version" of Conservatism if it existed there, in comparison to a hard-right USA fuck off style.

I mean, if Canada had US parties/voting patterns Alberta would probably be Democratic and Atlantic Canada would vote like ME - 02.

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by Docere

Generally liberal/centrist. There's a strong loyalty to the Liberal Party there. Rightwing populism hasn't really taken off there despite it being very white, working class and rural; economically it is like Canada's Appalachia.

Canadian conservatism is more akin to the Republican Party of the 60s/70s/80s when the center of gravity was more in the West than it is now. It's based on regional grievances of a prosperous, upstart region (the Prairies) against the "eastern establishment" (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal).

it could be that theres a lag time behind the u.s. but it could also be that due to a better safety net as well as a government that is perceived to be closer to the people perhaps (avoiding the alienation inherent to (mis)governing 325 million people) that things don’t become so fraught.

long story short more people view government as helpful.

[Docere]

The new leader of the Conservative Party, Erin O'Toole, has put his focus on the "left behind" working class and is even saying nice things about private sector unions. This "left behind" message could appeal to Ontario's "rust belt" and much of the Maritimes.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by eschaton

It's worth noting North Dakota being the most conservative is actually a recent occurrence. It had the biggest swing towards Trump of any state in 2016 Historically the Great Plains were more liberal-leaning the further north you go.

Because so many counties are GOP, I'll flip things around and count the number of counties less than 70% Trump:

South Dakota: 33
Kansas: 25
North Dakota: 17
Nebraska: 15

While the only real Democratic counties left in the Dakotas are Native American, there still is some residual Democratic strength in the towns close to the border of Minnesota. It's only once you travel west into "sagebrush country" that it gets crazy red.

Where would you say the Midwest ends and the West begins?

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by Docere

Where would you say the Midwest ends and the West begins?

the west sort of flickers into view like a channel stuck between stations. you get tastes of it in missouri ranching country where the ozarks flatten and you get texas style spreads. you get tastes of it in the most desolate windswept parts of illinois, especially west central where actually get a gentle roll on the land and can see an extremely far horizon above the curve of the earth.

the first real good iconic vision of the west though are the flint hills in kansas in my opinion.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Docere

Where would you say the Midwest ends and the West begins?

The transition from cropland to grazing land, right down the center of the Dakotas, a bit more east in Nebraska.

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

The transition from cropland to grazing land, right down the center of the Dakotas, a bit more east in Nebraska.

i notice this sort of flips back and forth in kansas based on the influences of the underlying geology as much as the availability of irrigation, rainfall or dryland farming conditions - the flint hills, the smoky hills, etc.

the 100th meridian sometimes is used as a start to the west.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

LOL at Illinois. 45 downstate counties with 70+% trump and chicagoland just completely steamrolls them.

I was curious to see just how massively Chicagoland swings Illinois' numbers, so I subtracted the 9 IL counties of Chicago's MSA from the state's overall numbers:

IL with Chicagoland: +17.0 Biden

IL without Chicagoland: +19.0 Trump


so, Chicagoland pulls Illinois a full 36 points more blue.

Illinois would be right there in the pack of lower midwest solid red without Chicagoland.


Midwest states - Biden vs. Trump margin:

IL (20 EV): +17.0
MN (10 EV): +7.1
MI (16 EV): +2.8
WI (10 EV): +0.6

OH (18 EV): +8.0
IA (6 EV): +8.3
KS (6 EV): +15.2
MO (10 EV): +15.3
IN (11 EV): +16.1
NE (5 EV): +19.1
SD (3 EV): +26.2
ND (3 EV): +33.3

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by eschaton

The Lower Midwest was also settled by a lot of Virginians and Kentuckians.

I'd actually argue that the the biggest factor in the northern tier is it was originally settled by Yankees from New England. Nearly everywhere settled by them (Upstate NY, Upper Midwest, San Francisco Bay Area) ended up realigning as left of center. The only real exception is the Mormon Belt, but Utah conservativism is really different in flavor from the anti-government individualism popular in the South and the Midlands.

Yeah, upstate New York feels a lot like Michigan to me, especially in parts of the state outside of Detroit. Ypsilanti, Michigan, would blend in perfectly well with the small cities in New York, such as Utica.

I think the lower Midwest has more spillover of the Scots-Irish culture that dominates/dominated the southeast quadrant of the country.