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  #1021  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 8:16 PM
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Put it this way:

I see Jews being to NJ what Irish are to NY. Jews to NY are what Irish are to Boston.

In NY, you have Suffolk County (19.5% Irish) with a majority of communities being 25% or more Irish — “Irish enclaves.” The most notable is West Islip at nearly 30% Irish in a town with a population of over 27,000.

Yet that’s not comparable to Norfolk/Plymouth/Barnstable, which is 27.6% Irish over a population of 1.49 million.

NY has a strong Irish culture, Boston is defined by Irish culture.

NJ has a strong Jewish culture, NY is defined by Jewish culture.
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  #1022  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 8:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrnyc View Post
its interesting that what appeared, at least on the ground in our recent trip out there, to be the wealthiest areas, had the most jews.


Cathedral City: 15,750
Coachella: 950 NHW
Desert Hot Springs: 8,600
Indian Wells: 4,200
Indio: 24,000
La Quinta: 20,500
Palm Desert: 34,000
Palm Springs: 27,800

Rancho Mirage: 13,400
Jews in the Coachella Valley are older and presumably retirees who collect Social Security. They’re not moguls and socialites buying multi-million-dollar secondary homes to camp out there during the summer.
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  #1023  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 8:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quixote View Post
re.

NJ has a strong Jewish culture, NY is defined by Jewish culture.
If you're talking downstate NY, NY and NJ culture are essentially interchangeable.

NJ is geographically small and almost entirely within the NY MSA/CSA. I think like 85% of the population is in the CSA, and basically all the rest is in Philly CSA, which isn't culturally that different from NY. This isn't a state with radical cultural variation. Maybe a tiny sliver of Chesapeake culture in the deep south of NJ.
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  #1024  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 8:53 PM
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Yes, NJ is essentially NYC in the north and Philly in the south. Northern NJ is the suburban heart of the NYC metro area, not some regional outlier.
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  #1025  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 8:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
Essex

Italian 7.8% (26% of NHWs)
Jewish 6.6% (22% of NHWs)
Irish 5% (17% of NHWs)

Westchester

Italian 14% (28% of NHWs)
Irish 12.1% (24% of NHWs)
Jewish 11.8% (24% of NHWs)
^ I don't see a radical departure from NYC regional norms here.
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  #1026  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 8:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
The "levelling off" of the Jewish population share is far sharper in L.A. than in NYC.

In the L.A. city/Westside/SFV core, you have a pretty similar levels of Jewish population share to NYC. If L.A. city is say, 8% Jewish that's about a third of the NHW population. The Westside is about 25% Jewish. It's hard to get the number exactly because L.A. County is a patchwork of cities - what constitutes "the core"?

But when you go beyond this, the number drops to pretty "normal American" levels.

Using the Brandeis figures for the suburban counties:

Ventura County 4.8% (11% of NHWs)
Orange County 2.7% (7% of NHWs)
Riverside County 1.4% (4% of NHWs)
San Bernardino County 0.8% (3% of NHWs)
County borders are also random.

Hudson County is right across from Manhattan, has a relatively low NHW population, a low Jewish percentage, and a low Jewish share of NHWs.

You could break up the SFV in half, and make the Westside, Central LA, South Bay, Long Beach/Rossmoor/Los Alamitos/Seal Beach, south OC, and the Coachella Valley each their own counties. Plus Ventura County, that’s 9 counties that would all be above the metro average of 4% and the latter four would be in a range that in the 4-6% range. Is NJ (7.3%) not closer to that than the 11.9% that is NYC/Nasssu/Westchester?
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  #1027  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 9:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
If you're talking downstate NY, NY and NJ culture are essentially interchangeable.

NJ is geographically small and almost entirely within the NY MSA/CSA. I think like 85% of the population is in the CSA, and basically all the rest is in Philly CSA, which isn't culturally that different from NY. This isn't a state with radical cultural variation. Maybe a tiny sliver of Chesapeake culture in the deep south of NJ.
When I say NJ, I’m referring to the portion that’s within the NYC CSA. The Jewish percentage there is 7.3%. NYC plus Long Island (including Suffolk) and Westchester is 11.1%. Rockland and Putnam are over 24%. Orange is over 10%. Upstate as a whole (including Westchester) is at least 12% over 2.16 million. Bergen and Ocean together are around 12% over an area of 1.6 million. The rest of NJ (5.3 million) is 6.3%.

Overall:

NY: 11.4% Jewish / 13.18 million
NJ: 7.4% / 6.87 million
CT (Fairfield and New Haven): 5.6% / 1.75 million

So the NY portion is 35% more Jewish than NJ on top of having a total population that is 48% larger.
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  #1028  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 9:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Docere View Post
Trying to line up the Jewish federation figures up with L.A. County. SFV contains 41% of the Jews in the service area, Westside 26%.

San Fernando Valley 231,000 / 1,436,000 16%
Westside 147,000 / 529,000 28%

The LA federation service area is 8% Jewish. I'm assuming that's about 30% of NHWs in the area.
Per the Census Bureau, as of 2020 the San Fernando Valley had 1,862,276 residents.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quixote View Post
Put it this way:

I see Jews being to NJ what Irish are to NY. Jews to NY are what Irish are to Boston.
The Irish are by far the largest single ethnic identity in Boston. Are you saying that you think Jews are by far the largest single ethnic identity in New York?

There seems to be a ton of over-inflation of Jewish population estimates and percentages in this thread.
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  #1029  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 10:25 PM
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Originally Posted by craigs View Post
Per the Census Bureau, as of 2020 the San Fernando Valley had 1,862,276 residents.
Then it would be 12% of the population.

If you're willing to update "Mapping L.A." for the 2020 census, I'd be grateful. L.A. County is quite the patchwork.
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  #1030  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 10:26 PM
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The counties in L.A. may be mega-sized, but the overall pattern seems pretty clear to me. The Long Beach area, Orange County and Riverside County are about 2-3% Jewish in an area of 6 million - pretty much the US average. All are majority-minority areas, but the Jewish percentage remains well below a tenth of the NHW population, so it's not if low Jewish overall percentages are "hiding" large Jewish concentrations.

Meanwhile the portion of the NYC metro that's in NJ is 7% Jewish over a similar population area. That's lower than NYC and Nassau/Westchester (as I said Jewish population does level off a bit as you get further from NYC) but this is far above the US average and higher than every metro areas outside of NYC/South Florida.

I also don't think there's a cohesive "NYC plus all the suburban counties that lie in NYS" identity in the region that excludes NJ.
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  #1031  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 10:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigs View Post
The Irish are by far the largest single ethnic identity in Boston. Are you saying that you think Jews are by far the largest single ethnic identity in New York?
It's an analogy. By the numbers, NYC, Long Island, and Upstate NY are (I think) relatively equal in terms of Jews/Italians. That being said, Jews are almost twice as prevalent in NYC than Italian, especially in Manhattan (the center of NYC) and Brooklyn (the most populous borough). Italian culture is much stronger in Staten Island (which is culturally more like NJ), NJ, Long Island, Upstate, and CT.
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  #1032  
Old Posted May 31, 2023, 10:47 PM
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How is Staten Island "culturally more like NJ"? It's filled with Italians who came from Brooklyn and Queens.

And the movement is generally Brooklyn - Staten Island - NJ (and maybe retirement in Florida), so to the extent one state is "influencing" another it's NY influence moving into NJ.
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  #1033  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2023, 12:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Docere View Post
The counties in L.A. may be mega-sized, but the overall pattern seems pretty clear to me. The Long Beach area, Orange County and Riverside County are about 2-3% Jewish in an area of 6 million - pretty much the US average. All are majority-minority areas, but the Jewish percentage remains well below a tenth of the NHW population, so it's not if low Jewish overall percentages are "hiding" large Jewish concentrations.

Meanwhile the portion of the NYC metro that's in NJ is 7% Jewish over a similar population area. That's lower than NYC and Nassau/Westchester (as I said Jewish population does level off a bit as you get further from NYC) but this is far above the US average and higher than every metro areas outside of NYC/South Florida.
We've gone back and forth for several pages, so I think taking a step back would help. To summarize:

I never claimed that Greater LA was as Jewish as Greater NYC or even NJ. I think it's pretty clear that there are more Jews and a greater density of them over a wider area of Greater NYC compared to Greater LA. Rather, what I've been disputing is the idea that there aren't "Jewish-heavy" concentrations in every direction from the "core" of Jewish LA.

I also contend that you can find several swaths of geography in the 370,000-1,000,000 range that are in the 4.5-6% Jewish area, which many NJ counties and NJ (the NYC-area portion) as a whole are closer to than the Greater NYC average of 9.5% and certainly the "core." The core can be defined as NYC (11.5% Jewish) or NYC/Nassau/Westchester (11.9% Jewish percentage).

NJ (7.3%) is a notch below NY (including Suffolk and all the Upstate counties) across all metrics: Jewish number, Jewish percentage, and Jewish share of NHWs. Obviously NJ is a vital part of the Greater NYC area, but there are cultural and demographic differences between the two places writ large. For example, NJ is either single-handedly "responsible" or is a major contributor for several ethnic groups: Korean, Peruvian, Filipino, Portuguese, Cuban, Indian, etc. When it comest to the "big three" of Italian/Irish/Jewish, NJ is substantially more Italian/Irish, while in NY the three groups are more even.

I know I'm being a broken record, but am I the only one who finds it pretty amazing that 35% of Greater NYC's Jews live in Brooklyn and Manhattan? There are more Jews that live in those two boroughs alone than NJ (the NYC-area portion) and Nassau County COMBINED. Think about that.

So it seems odd to say that Jews are heavily concentrated in one area of Greater LA while ignoring the fact that 10% of all NYC-area Jews live in 5.7 square miles (UES, UWS, Borough Park). I argue that Brooklyn and Manhattan having the numbers, percentage, share of NHWs, and the *density* make it so "Jewish-heavy" (17.8% Jewish out of a population of 4.1 million) that you could say that there is a clear "Jewish area" within the metro both in absolute and relative terms.

Regarding LA, the "core" would be either the Westside and the entire SFV (LA County only) or the Westside and the Valley Hills (south of Ventura). Either way, you have notable Jewish enclaves or areas that are in the 4-6% range that aren't unlike many of the NJ counties (sans Bergen and Ocean).

West:

Thousand Oaks (128,623)

Unclassified 11.8%
American 4.7%
Polish 3.3%
Russian 3.2%
European 2.1%
Iranian 1.1%
Hungarian 1.0%

The tracts with the largest percentage of Russian ancestry:

Tract 007402 (6,352)

Unclassified 13.9%
Russian 6.8%
American 5.7%
European 5.1%
Polish 4.1%
Hungarian 3.3%
Iranian 2.1%

Tract 007202 (4,232)

Unclassified 12.8%
European 5.1%
Russian 5.0%
American 4.5%
Iranian 3.6%
Polish 2.3%
Czech 1.3%
Austrian 1.1%

And so on. Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, and Oak Park are almost certainly over 10% Jewish, likely north of 15%.

To the north in the Santa Clarita Valley, there are at least half a dozen tracts of a few thousand people that are likely more than 10% Jewish.

To the south and east, you have 127,000 Jews in the Long Beach area, OC, and the Coachella Valley. That's still 17% of all Greater LA Jews located in the opposite corner of the metro. In these places, you have the city of Long Beach (4% Jewish) plus nearby Los Alamitos and Rossmoor. Lots of tracts of a few thousand in various south OC communities that have a high probability of being over 10% Jewish, Laguna Woods clearly above that threshold. This would put the Jewish share of the NHW populations in the double digits; the Jewish share of NHWs in Laguna Woods is probably 20%. And of course the Coachella Valley is a destination for Jews to retire, celebrate the high holidays, or enjoy the National Jewish Retreat.

The point is that even in the Jew-sparse Inland Empire, there's still a notable Jewish area. Even in WASPy OC, you still have a community like Laguna Woods in the heart of south county. It's not the numbers but the randomness — "Even here there are Jews??? I never would've thought. Why does this place even exist? Not only is it out in the middle of nowhere, it also gets so fucking hot!" — that I'm trying to get at. I don't have anything like a Coachella Valley on the exurban fringes of Chicago, DC, Boston, or Philly. So in a sense, Coachella Valley is an oddity like Kiryas Joel. I am NOT saying that Coachella Valley is Kiryas Joel.
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Last edited by Quixote; Jun 1, 2023 at 12:49 AM.
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  #1034  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2023, 12:52 AM
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If you want to say that LA doesn't have areas that are 20% or more Jewish (that being your definition of "Jewish-heavy") in every direction, then fine, I'll concede.

But it does probably have lots of large communities with tracts over 10%, which would put the Jewish share of NHWs firmly in the double digits. Even the whitest neighborhoods in Greater LA have Latino and Asian populations that amount to at least 15%.
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  #1035  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2023, 1:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
How is Staten Island "culturally more like NJ"? It's filled with Italians who came from Brooklyn and Queens.

And the movement is generally Brooklyn - Staten Island - NJ (and maybe retirement in Florida), so to the extent one state is "influencing" another it's NY influence moving into NJ.
Huge Italian population, Irish second-most predominant ancestry, Jewish percentage more similar to NJ, more racially diverse than Suffolk and Upstate NY, politically conservative, etc. Haven’t you heard the joke that Staten Island should belong to NJ and Hudson County NY/NYC?
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  #1036  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2023, 2:23 AM
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I don't really get the importance of NJ vs. "in NYS" thing. I think the urban vs. suburban distinction is more meaningful. NYC Jews obviously live in dense urban settings (even in "semi-suburban" Queens). Outside, most live in suburban settings and live suburban lifestyles. And you can find Jewish communities in all suburban sectors. Scarsdale and Short Hills are as similar as two suburbs can be. You have Orthodox communities on the metropolitan fringe, in both Rockland and Lakewood.

There's also no "state line" distinction in Los Angeles, so there's really no basis for comparison. So I don't know what's supposed to be the "Long Island" and the "New Jersey." You seem to have one major east/southeast directional from L.A. County, though Orange and Inland Empire have distinct identities. It's a rather different area.
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  #1037  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2023, 2:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Quixote View Post
Huge Italian population, Irish second-most predominant ancestry, Jewish percentage more similar to NJ, more racially diverse than Suffolk and Upstate NY, politically conservative, etc. Haven’t you heard the joke that Staten Island should belong to NJ and Hudson County NY/NYC?
Except NJ isn't really that politically conservative. Staten Island is far more conservative than most suburbs. If anything Long Island is the conservative part of the metro, they vote quite conservatively for an area that affluent and educated. I'd actually argue that LI is the "outlier" in the NYC area in many respects, not NJ. Westchester seems more similar to NJ than Long Island overall, as it has a significant urban component and seems to have more of the "contrasting towns" right next to each other pattern.
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  #1038  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2023, 2:37 AM
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I like that I have a short walk to Temple. I am sure that's why my grandfather moved here.
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  #1039  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2023, 5:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
I don't really get the importance of NJ vs. "in NYS" thing. I think the urban vs. suburban distinction is more meaningful. NYC Jews obviously live in dense urban settings (even in "semi-suburban" Queens). Outside, most live in suburban settings and live suburban lifestyles. And you can find Jewish communities in all suburban sectors. Scarsdale and Short Hills are as similar as two suburbs can be. You have Orthodox communities on the metropolitan fringe, in both Rockland and Lakewood.

There's also no "state line" distinction in Los Angeles, so there's really no basis for comparison. So I don't know what's supposed to be the "Long Island" and the "New Jersey." You seem to have one major east/southeast directional from L.A. County, though Orange and Inland Empire have distinct identities. It's a rather different area.
The basis for that was you drawing a distinction between LA County and the outer suburban counties, pointing out that the standard German/English/Irish predominates in the latter. My contention was that the same is true in NJ, only it's the prototypical Italian/Irish. Bergen, Ocean, Middlesex, and Monmouth all have comfortable Italian and/or Irish pluralities.

There is no Greater LA equivalent to NJ. That was never my argument. My argument was that even Greater NYC clearly has a "Jewish center" — even with the metro being quite Jewish in all directions — that encompasses a small geographic area. There are 730,000 Jews in Brooklyn and Manhattan alone. It's this dense, urban concentration that differentiates Greater NYC (plus places like Kiryas Joel and Lakewood) from other Jewish communities in the U.S. Otherwise, you can find Nassau/Westchester/Bergen-like places in South Florida and places like Lake, IL, Montgomery, PA, and Montgomery, MD are similar to the other NJ counties. If the Jewish population were "watered down" and evenly spread out across the metro area, the overall ethnographic feel of the region would be less Jewish because it would be "competing" with other large white ethnicities like Italian and Irish.

If there shouldn't be delineation between state lines, then why should there be for counties? County boundaries are arbitrary. As I mentioned earlier, you could redraw borders and produce over a half-dozen counties with strong Jewish percentages — percentages that most NJ counties are closer to than across those across the Hudson.

NJ has Bergen, but NY has Nassau. NJ has Ocean, but NY has Rockland (over 30% Jewish compared to Ocean's 13.6%). All metrics support the narrative that NY is an order of magnitude more Jewish — something you've already acknowledged essentially.
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Last edited by Quixote; Jun 1, 2023 at 5:31 AM.
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  #1040  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2023, 6:31 AM
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For L.A.

(1) L.A. County 530,400 5.4%
(2) Outside L.A. County 178,000 2.1%

% L.A. County 75%
(1) / (2) = 39%


For NYC

(1) NYC 943,800 11.5%
(2) Outside NYC 1,158,800 8.3%

% in NYC 45%
(1) / (2) = 72%
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