2020 Presidential Election Results by Top 50 MSA

[Manitopiaaa]

I figured this forum would appreciate this 6 hour time suck. With the caveat that some votes are still being counted (particularly in California, Illinois, and New York), here are the 2020 presidential election results as of today - 11/13/2020.

Biden has won 42 of the 50 largest metro areas in the country. Trump has won...7. Biden flipped 8(!) metros from 2016: Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Louisville, Phoenix, Saint Louis, and San Antonio. In Pittsburgh, Trump is clinging to a 51-49% lead that will likely stick, even if the gap closes marginally. In Tampa, Trump again has won with a 51-49% lead.

An incredible showing for Democrats all in all. They have nearly conquered the American city. Any surprises?

[ChiSoxRox]

I knew Cincinnati leaned conservative, but I didn't realize the metro was a double digit margin for Trump.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

I knew Cincinnati leaned conservative, but I didn't realize the metro was a double digit margin for Trump.

Hamilton County (home to Cincinnati) was 57% Biden (a 65,000 margin). But the suburbs are blood red. The three suburban Ohio counties that ring Hamilton each gave Trump a 40,000 vote margin.

So Cincinnati's +65k Biden margin gets wiped out by just Butler, Clermont, and Warren (+120k Trump). Then you have a death by 1,000 cuts of smaller Kentucky and Indiana counties, all of which voted Trump.

If you're walking through Over-the-Rhine, with rainbow flags and hipster shops, you'd never think you were walking through the 2nd most Trump-friendly metro among the Top 50, only behind Oklahoma City. Yet you are!

[dimondpark]

Excellent work! This is great stuff

[Docere]

Very helpful, thanks for this.


Change in Democratic vote since 2016:

Atlanta +6
Baltimore +7
Boston +6
Chicago +2
Denver +9
Detroit +4
Houston +3
Los Angeles +1.5
Miami -4
Minneapolis +8
Philadelphia +3
Phoenix +6
San Diego +5
San Francisco +4
Seattle +7
Washington +5

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-2016-election

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by Docere

Very helpful, thanks for this.


Change in Democratic vote since 2016:

Atlanta +6
Baltimore +7
Boston +6
Chicago +2
Denver +9
Detroit +4
Houston +3
Los Angeles +1.5
Miami -4
Minneapolis +8
Phoenix +6
San Diego +5
San Francisco +4
Seattle +7
Washington +5

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-2016-election

My numbers above are two-party vote share, so that link isn't the right analogue.

Here's a new chart where I've added in Clinton's % margin (two-party w/Trump) and the change between Clinton and Biden's % shares:

[Docere]

Excellent.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by Docere

Excellent.

Also, the best Biden improvements are interesting:
Denver +8.59%
Oklahoma City: +8.56%
Dallas: +7.80%
Atlanta: +7.32%
Indianapolis: +7.14%

Houston was only +1.90%, so the Dallas/Houston divergence definitely merits some analysis.

Miami of course is the worst one: -11.96%

[homebucket]

Thank you for putting this together!

Looks like the top 10 biggest margins were:
SF +61.04
SJ +47.74
DC +46.70
Seattle +38.16
Boston +36.04
LA +35.78
Chicago +31.62
Portland +31.52
Philadelphia +29.82
Austin +27.30

Lowest 10 margins were:
OKC -17.14
Cincinnati -14.38
Jacksonville -13.02
Nashville -10.68
Tampa -2.60
Indianapolis -2.40
Pittsburgh -2.26
Louisville +0.08
Charlotte +0.40
Phoenix +0.60

Some observations. NYC's Biden margin is surprisingly low compared to other large, liberal metros. SF (and SJ) continues to cement its lead as the most liberal area in the US, although the margin of victory actually shrunk from 2016 to 2020. In fact, the only other places that got more Trumpy % wise than SF/SJ were LA at -5.53%, NYC at -8.13% and Miami and -11.96. Also, Pittsburgh, Phoenix, and Houston are still surprisingly Trumpy.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Thank you for putting this together!

Looks like the top 10 biggest margins were:
SF +61.04
SJ +47.74
DC +46.70
Seattle +38.16
Boston +36.04
LA +35.78
Chicago +31.62
Portland +31.52
Philadelphia +29.82
Austin +27.30

Lowest 10 margins were:
OKC -17.14
Cincinnati -14.38
Jacksonville -13.02
Nashville -10.68
Tampa -2.60
Pittsburgh -2.26
Louisville +0.08
Charlotte +0.40
Phoenix +0.60
Houston +0.84

Some observations. NYC's Biden margin is surprisingly low compared to other large, liberal metros. SF (and SJ) continues to cement its lead as the most liberal area in the US, although the margin of victory actually shrunk from 2016 to 2020. In fact, the only other places that got more Trumpy % wise than SF/SJ were LA at -5.53%, NYC at -8.13% and Miami and -11.96. Also, Pittsburgh, Phoenix, and Houston are still surprisingly Trumpy.

California, Illinois, and New York are still counting. So the New York City number is a red herring at this point (which is why I highlighted the Biden gains but not the declines - since those are red mirages, so to speak).

I'll update in 2 weeks when votes are fully certified. The other states are basically done, so those MSA figures will largely stick.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Looks like the top 10 biggest margins were:
SF +61.04
SJ +47.74
DC +46.70
Seattle +38.16
Boston +36.04
LA +35.78
Chicago +31.62
Portland +31.52
Philadelphia +29.82
Austin +27.30

Lowest 10 margins were:
OKC -17.14
Cincinnati -14.38
Jacksonville -13.02
Nashville -10.68
Tampa -2.60
Pittsburgh -2.26
Louisville +0.08
Charlotte +0.40
Phoenix +0.60
Houston +0.84

If manitopiaaa's data is correct, then I think you mistakenly omitted Indy (-2.40) from the lowest margin list.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

If manitopiaaa's data is correct, then I think you mistakenly omitted Indy (-2.40) from the lowest margin list.

Oops that’s right. Thanks for pointing that out!

[Docere]

And 60% in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Minnesota is domianted by a large, educated, liberal metro. Further evidence that the state is not "just another Wisconsin" waiting to flip based on the 2016 result. Trump seemed fixated on winning the state and it didn't seem to help much.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Docere

And 60% in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Minnesota is domianted by a large, educated metro. Further evidence that the state is not "just another Wisconsin" based on the 2016 result. Trump seemed fixated on winning the state and it didn't seem to help much.

Yeah, when was the last time minnesota went red? It had to be ages ago.

As for wisconsin, yeah, it's much more swingy because it lacks a true alpha metro to dominate it, but metro Milwaukee got up to a +10 this time, which is respectable for a smaller metro (doubly so considering the uber-conservative reputation of the WOW counties).

And WI's blue ace-in-the-hole is Madison's Dane County (2nd largest in the state). With a biden share of 75.5%, I think Dane is the bluest county in the Midwest this time around, slightly ahead of Cook County (currently at 74.3%, but Cook still has a bit to count).

[Chef]

Originally Posted by Docere

And 60% in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Minnesota is domianted by a large, educated, liberal metro. Further evidence that the state is not "just another Wisconsin" waiting to flip based on the 2016 result. Trump seemed fixated on winning the state and it didn't seem to help much.

Hennepin County, which is Minneapolis and a large swathe of its inner suburbia has about 20% of Minnesota's population. It went 71 - 27 for Biden. He won Hennepin by 326k votes which was larger than his statewide margin (233k votes). Ramsey County which is mostly St Paul and is smaller went to Biden by similar margins. The core counties of the Twin Cities are blue enough that it is really hard for Republicans to win statewide. The only issue for Democrats is that the Twin Cities also have an anti-establishment streak so they will have a significant third party vote if the Democratic candidate is unpopular.

Without Hennepin and Ramsey counties Minnesota is basically Iowa.

[Crawford]

People are always talking about Nashville is this huge progressive/hipster mecca, with a dash of Hollywood. It's a deep red metro. I always got the sense it was extremely right wing overall.

Also, the Dems were a disaster in the rustiest part of the Rust Belt. We know about Youngstown, Akron and Canton. But how could they lose Pittsburgh? That metro is full of eds and meds.

And Cincy was an epic disaster. Wow, that's a conservative metro. The Dems are hopeless in Ohio in the near term, if they barely clear 40% in a major metro.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Crawford

People are always talking about Nashville is this huge progressive/hipster mecca, with a dash of Hollywood. It's a deep red metro. I always got the sense it was extremely right wing overall.

Also, the Dems were a disaster in the rustiest part of the Rust Belt. We know about Youngstown, Akron and Canton. But how could they lose Pittsburgh?

And Cincy was an epic disaster. Wow, that's a conservative metro. The Dems are hopeless in Ohio in the near term, if they barely clear 40% in a major metro.

Yeah you would think Nashville would be more in line with Austin, since they're so often compared to each other. But it's not even like Charlotte, Phoenix, Houston, etc.

[Docere]

Pittsburgh is a very liberal and educated city but I guess it's a liberal island in a very culturally conservative, rusty, WWC metro.

[Docere]

Bob Casey remarked recently that both Trump and Biden were good fits for PA.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Docere

Bob Casey remarked recently that both Trump and Biden were good fits for PA.

Yeah, I think that's fair.

Some of these margins are gonna be pretty different if the next election is a standard-issue GOP vs Dem, rather than a (perceived) populist vs. establishment race. I don't think the GOP runs up these margins in Eastern OH/Western PA, and they probably underperform relative to 2020 in the rural areas and among nonwhites. But the GOP metro share might grow in the Sunbelt.