Texas inching towards new population milestone

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by Dariusb

I don't care if Texas doesn't match or exceed California's population. After it's boom wanes, I just want it to grow steadily and not stagnate.

I just want for Texas to remain economically vibrant in the coming years, and I also would like to see the political climate become less toxic. It really is not important that Texas becomes the most populous state, and I don't know many Texans who think it is important.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

If we take last year's trends, California lost 300,387 people and Texas gained 382,436.

By July 1, 2030, that gets us:

• California: 36,534,353
• Texas: 32,969,865

If California doesn't turn its demographic exodus around (removing all the mentally ill/drug addicts from the streets + actually punishing snatch-and-grab criminals), Texas is 15 years away from being #1.

$800k to live in a 6,000-square foot palace in Houston OR $800k to live in a 1,500-square foot average 70s home with a tent encampment and syringes outside my door. I know which is more alluring.

I am certainly not an expert on real estate for each city, but I am not sure the comparison is apples to apples. I would be shocked if you could get a 6000 sf place in a nice area within Houston city or even in a nice close-in suburbs. You probably have to go 30-40 miles outside. In LA, the $800K for a 1500 sf place is probably close in LA or a desirable suburb. You probably can go 40-50 miles out in a place like Riverside and at least get a bigger place for $800K (probably not 6000 sf though)...I hate to say this but I think 6000 sf McMansion in exurbs just encourage more sprawl and less vibrant downtowns. Dallas and Houston have been the two fastest growing big metros for decades, but you would never know it if you looked at their downtown cores.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by ocman

Why would that need to happen? It's not like red states have suddenly started to be concerned about unsustainable growth. Texas has a lot of land that they can sprawl into. There's plenty of dirt land.

Texas now is where California was about 40 or 50 years ago (they gave us Nixon and Reagan) and it's been inching towards the center for decades so it's safe to assume that Texas in another 40 or 50 years won't be the same as it is now. All the major metro areas have already swung to the blue team.

[urban_encounter]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I just want for Texas to remain economically vibrant in the coming years, and I also would like to see the political climate become less toxic. It really is not important that Texas becomes the most populous state, and I don't know many Texans who think it is important.

Just avoid emulating California and Texas should be alright. This State is a mess.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Dallas and Houston have been the two fastest growing big metros for decades, but you would never know it if you looked at their downtown cores.

the disconnect between MSA population growth and downtown skyline growth can produce some wildly divergent results.


Dallas, the fastest growing top 10 MSA over the past 2 decades.

- 300+ m towers built since 2000: 0
- 250+ m towers built since 2000: 0
- 200+ m towers built since 2000: 0
- 150+ m towers built since 2000: 2
- 100+ m towers built since 2000: 13



Chicago, the slowest growing top 10 MSA over the past 2 decades.

- 300+ m towers built since 2000: 2
- 250+ m towers built since 2000: 8
- 200+ m towers built since 2000: 22
- 150+ m towers built since 2000: 62
- 100+ m towers built since 2000: 141


one thing simply doesn't have a great deal of bearing upon the other thing.

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I just want for Texas to remain economically vibrant in the coming years, and I also would like to see the political climate become less toxic. It really is not important that Texas becomes the most populous state, and I don't know many Texans who think it is important.

I couldn't have said it better.

[SAN Man]

New York set a milestone. It dropped below 20 million people to 19,835,913, dropping by 319,020 this year.

There are now only 3 states over 20 million, California, Texas and Florida. Will California reach 40 million before New York crosses back over to 20 million again?

[llamaorama]

Meh. Make it stop.

[llamaorama]

Originally Posted by DCReid

I am certainly not an expert on real estate for each city, but I am not sure the comparison is apples to apples. I would be shocked if you could get a 6000 sf place in a nice area within Houston city or even in a nice close-in suburbs. You probably have to go 30-40 miles outside. In LA, the $800K for a 1500 sf place is probably close in LA or a desirable suburb. You probably can go 40-50 miles out in a place like Riverside and at least get a bigger place for $800K (probably not 6000 sf though)...I hate to say this but I think 6000 sf McMansion in exurbs just encourage more sprawl and less vibrant downtowns. Dallas and Houston have been the two fastest growing big metros for decades, but you would never know it if you looked at their downtown cores.

Indeed, in the desirable western half of the inside of the 610 loop in Houston, or Dallas's northern wedge, 800k would buy a nice house but not a mansion. Think Pasadena, not Beverly Hills.

And honestly, some meth addict stealing shampoo from a CVS in LA is tame. In Texas it's like going back in time to LA in the 1990s with kids with guns carjacking people and shooting up convenience stores on 10:00 news. Also, the felony threshold for theft in California is $900, this is the object of controversy, right? In Texas IIRC it's around $2,000 or something like that.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

Indeed, in the desirable western half of the inside of the 610 loop in Houston, or Dallas's northern wedge, 800k would buy a nice house but not a mansion. Think Pasadena, not Beverly Hills.

And honestly, some meth addict stealing shampoo from a CVS in LA is tame. In Texas it's like going back in time to LA in the 1990s with kids with guns carjacking people and shooting up convenience stores on 10:00 news. Also, the felony threshold for theft in California is $900, this is the object of controversy, right? In Texas IIRC it's around $2,000 or something like that.

Yea, Houston/Dallas/Ft Worth crime is def worse than LA and SF even in a bad year for LA. It's just that LA and SF are in the media more because they're higher profile. Even Austin's murder rate isn't much better than LA (if it is at all).

When Texans on social media talk about California crime I basically tell them to stop throwing stones in glass houses.

[tech12]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

If we take last year's trends, California lost 300,387 people and Texas gained 382,436.

By July 1, 2030, that gets us:

• California: 36,534,353
• Texas: 32,969,865

If California doesn't turn its demographic exodus around (removing all the mentally ill/drug addicts from the streets + actually punishing snatch-and-grab criminals), Texas is 15 years away from being #1.

$800k to live in a 6,000-square foot palace in Houston OR $800k to live in a 1,500-square foot average 70s home with a tent encampment and syringes outside my door. I know which is more alluring.

You think trends are gong to stay the same for 15 years? CA's population loss is due to high housing prices and covid-19. Conservatives in particular have been fleeing the state forever, but the population was rising due to the birth rate and immigration until mid 2019, when it started dropping for the first time. Then the pandemic exacerbated it. Drug addicts and criminals have basically nothing to do with the "exodus" beyond the role that they've always played in the media and right wing propaganda. Most people who move away from CA do it because it's expensive, not because of some bullshit statewide crime wave.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by tech12

You think trends are gong to stay the same for 15 years? CA's population loss is due to high housing prices and covid-19. Conservatives in particular have been fleeing the state forever, but the population was rising due to the birth rate and immigration until mid 2019, when it started dropping for the first time. Then the pandemic exacerbated it. Drug addicts and criminals have basically nothing to do with the "exodus" beyond the role that they've always played in the media and right wing propaganda. Most people who move away from CA do it because it's expensive, not because of some bullshit statewide crime wave.

No, I expect trends to accelerate and I expect California's population loss to expand. Because of declining Latino birth rates, I also expect Texas's growth rate to decline, but the general demographic momentum in Texas will remain. I'm actually not a fan of either state and would never live in either (Virginia is the furthest South I'll live), so this isn't boosterism or homerism either.

On homelessness, don't take my word for it. The frontrunner for Los Angeles Mayor literally says homelessness is the first thing people bring up when speaking with her: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...meless-crisis/. It's definitely not a made-up issue, and is clearly a local cause for concern.

Third, on COVID, California's demographic exodus predates COVID. The State barely grew in 2019 (+147 people): https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/p...ate/California. The State was also obscenely expensive in 2010-2018, yet it had high growth, which suggests high housing is not the 'key' issue, as some would say.

I think the real issue is that California's ROI has rapidly decreased in recent years. Housing prices have gotten no better, but the cities are far more dangerous and far less desirable. I might pay $600k to live in an upscale, well-run suburb like Irvine. I'm not paying $600k to live in a criminal-infested pus sore. Which would explain why even though California had high housing costs this past decade, the decline only happened in the later part of the decade when the cities began their downward spirals.

Fourth, how is the crime wave "bullshit"? It's objective and empirical. What is it with some Californians on SSP who want to pretend everything is rosy in their state?

Lastly, I'm a liberal Democrat and have never once voted Republican and never will. So dismissing concerns about urban decay as "right-wing talking points" is nothing but ad hominem invectives.

[mrnyc]

the only crime wave is the newish trend of the poors using social media to plan raids on drug stores, groceries and bs high end shoppes like gucci. this is annoying petty theft and more sad than anything else, but some would have you think its the end of the world. these are the same ones who think agitators in protests who spray paint or break a window should be shot to death.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

the only crime wave is the newish trend of the poors using social media to plan raids on drug stores, groceries and bs high end shoppes like gucci. this is annoying petty theft and more sad than anything else, but some would have you think its the end of the world. these are the same ones who think agitators in protests who spray paint or break a window should be shot to death.

Homicides are massively up. This isn't even up for discussion. It's an objective statistic. Crime is getting out of hand, and smash-and-grabs are just one facet of that.

It looks like the wokest among us want to retest the Broken Windows Theory, however. Hopefully they'll realize the end result is the same: when people see that they can get away with a smaller crime, they'll up the ante the next time.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

Homicides are massively up. This isn't even up for discussion. It's an objective statistic. Crime is getting out of hand, and smash-and-grabs are just one facet of that.

It looks like the wokest among us want to retest the Broken Windows Theory, however. Hopefully they'll realize the end result is the same: when people see that they can get away with a smaller crime, they'll up the ante the next time.

woke schmoke, what does that even mean?

of course the fraud that you, bratton, guiliani and their ilk promoted that broken windows policing deters crime has long been proven untrue. economic growth is what deters crime. crime fell everywhere when the economy rose. thats the real fact. so vax up, put on your mask and get to work.

[DCReid]

NY Times article on 12/26 says that half the growth in Texas is from new births.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/26/u...sultPosition=1

[EastSideHBG]

Business and personal taxes aren't helping CA's case either and now more than ever people are paying attention to their ROI. The world is getting smaller rapidly and with further advancements in technology and WFH people are really thinking about where their home address should be.

And unfortunately many of our urban areas have gone so far into being "Progressive" that in more areas than before you have to reconsider being out past dark because the lunatics really have taken over the asylum aka our streets. And now you are starting to see this really negative and backwards reaction that isn't helping the situation: cities did a lot over the years to attract a little more affluent crowd and in some of these cases they have never lived in a city before. Their neighborhood starts to go downhill and you read things like, "Ugh my car was just broken into again!" and "Someone was just shot in killed in front of my building, I am shaking right now!" and instead of compassion and let's address this so that the situation doesn't get worse people come with the, "Welcome to city life. If you can't handle it get the hell out," and local politicians who seem to want to do anything and everything to add to the downward slide

Originally Posted by mrnyc

the only crime wave is the newish trend of the poors using social media to plan raids on drug stores, groceries and bs high end shoppes like gucci. this is annoying petty theft and more sad than anything else, but some would have you think its the end of the world. these are the same ones who think agitators in protests who spray paint or break a window should be shot to death.

The poors? You mean organized gangs who then flip the merchandise to buy things that further terrorize their communities.

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by SAN Man

New York set a milestone. It dropped below 20 million people to 19,835,913, dropping by 319,020 this year.

There are now only 3 states over 20 million, California, Texas and Florida. Will California reach 40 million before New York crosses back over to 20 million again?

I see CA hitting 40 mil before NY gets back to 20 mil.

[Qubert]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

woke schmoke, what does that even mean?

of course the fraud that you, bratton, guiliani and their ilk promoted that broken windows policing deters crime has long been proven untrue. economic growth is what deters crime. crime fell everywhere when the economy rose. thats the real fact. so vax up, put on your mask and get to work.

The 1960s and 1980s both were marked by smoking hot economies and rapidly rising crime rates. Even now the labor market has been on a tear and low-wage businesses can't find warm bodies fast enough yet crime is exploding.

Fun fact, here in NYC, robberies/grand larceny are up but only slightly. It's shootings and stabbings that are surging.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by EastSideHBG

The poors? You mean organized gangs who then flip the merchandise to buy things that further terrorize their communities.

This is why the current situation in places like New York, San Francisco, LA and Chicago are total shit shows because this is the presiding thought among many city leaders. Just think of all the hungry mouths a Louis Vuitton handbag could support and of course billion dollar company like LV can afford it.