Texas/Florida America's Future?

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by craigs

Yeah, I concur with Pedestrian: when it comes to transportation infrastructure, California has invested heavily in much more than just freeways. I am surprised to see such an uninformed claim.

California's massive airports, seaports, and freight railroad networks are top notch. They greatly lessen the burden on the state's road networks.

And in terms of public transport, California transit agencies carry far more commuters per capita than those in Texas. For example, before the pandemic the state's fourth busiest transit agency--San Diego's--provided 282,300 daily rides, while Texas' largest agency, in Houston, provided 297,900 daily rides. California has the fifth- and ninth-busiest heavy rail systems in America, six different light rail systems that include the first-, third-, and fifth-busiest in the nation, and the sixth- and eighth-busiest metropolitan commuter rail networks in the country. The state also funds the nation's third-, fourth-, and seventh-busiest interurban Amtrak routes.

Yes, Texas and Florida are America's future--they are currently growing fastest--but so are all of the other states 'America's future.' America isn't just one or two states.

California is far more denser and populated than Texas due to a different type of geography and history (California has way more pre automobile development). Aside from better public transit, I'd imagine Texas ports, freight, and airports are just as good, if not better.

Texas and Florida are more indicative of the type of state that will be America's future, which is just a repeat of what Midwest (or insert previously booming region/state ) went through from boom to bust to stagnation....

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Right, CA used to be relatively cheap, and unregulated, and much of its growth was initially powered by the feds, from aviation, to military, to aerospace. TX cannot do this dance forever, though probably will boom a lot longer than FL.

The only sure thing is that states won't be "the same" relative to one another a generation from now.

Texas has young demographics and 4 distinct, major metros within it's gigantic border (arguably 5 if you count the border region which carries some economic heft). It's got some good tailwinds ahead of it as well as some major headwinds that comes from extreme growth and climate change.

[LA21st]

Texas has become less affordable and growth has slowed already.

People will go elsewhere for cheaper options, as they always have
People aren't moving for Texas, they're moving for affordability. Sooner or later, it's gonna change.
.

[dimondpark]

Bitch, please.

GDP Growth, 2010-2020
+69.3% Washington
+64.4% Utah
+56.6% California
+54.2% North Dakota
+54.0% South Dakota
+53.3% Oregon
+52.9% Colorado
+52.7% Idaho
+50.0% Arizona
+49.5% Georgia
+48.4% Tennessee
+48.3% Florida
+47.8% South Carolina
+42.3% Massachusetts
+42.1% Texas
+41.2% North Carolina
+40.6% Nebraska
+40.1% New York
+39.6% UNITED STATES
+39.8% Nevada
+37.5% Minnesota
+36.2% Kansas
+36.0% Ohio
+35.2% Iowa
+34.9% District of Columbia
+34.2% Montana
+33.5% Maryland
+33.4% Michigan
+33.0% Wisconsin
+32.8% Indiana
+32.8% New Hampshire
+31.5% Delaware
+30.8% Hawaii
+30.5% Illinois
+30.4% Virginia
+30.2% Pennsylvania
+29.4% Maine
+29.0% Arkansas
+28.0% Alabama
+28.0% Kentucky
+25.3% New Jersey
+24.9% Missouri
+22.4% Rhode Island
+21.5% Oklahoma
+20.0% Mississippi
+19.0% New Mexico
+18.5% Vermont
+17.6% Connecticut
+12.3% West Virginia
+6.6% Louisiana
-2.7% Wyoming
-3.8% Alaska

2010-2020 Numerical GDP Growth
California +$1,118,000,000,000
Texas.........+$522,000,000,000
New York ...+$487,000,000,000
Florida........+$357,000,000,000

[JManc]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Texas has become less affordable and growth has slowed already.

People will go elsewhere for cheaper options, as they always have
People aren't moving for Texas, they're moving for affordability. Sooner or later, it's gonna change.
.

People go there not just the affordability but the combined with economic opportunities. For now, Texas is good on both fronts. California and Washington have the economy but not the affordability. While Louisiana or Alabama might have the affordability but not the economy.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Bitch, please.

GDP Growth, 2010-2020
+69.3% Washington
+64.4% Utah
+56.6% California

2010-2020 Numerical GDP Growth
California +$1,118,000,000,000
Texas.........+$522,000,000,000
New York ...+$487,000,000,000
Florida........+$357,000,000,000

Considering it was already the largest state economy, that is insane growth for California. That's getting close to developing country type of growth.

[Crawford]

So "dying" CA has far more economic growth than "booming" TX and FL combined. Sad.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Considering it was already the largest state economy, that is insane growth for California. That's getting close to developing country type of growth.

That's what a monster tech boom will do to you over a decade. But like Texas's population growth, that's going to be near impossible to do for another decade.

[pj3000]

Growth for growth's sake ain't always good when it comes at the cellular level or at the population level.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by TexasPlaya

That's what a monster tech boom will do to you over a decade. But like Texas's population growth, that's going to be near impossible to do for another decade.

It's not all tech related. I think the tech will be more sustained anyway.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by LA21st

It's not all tech related. I think the tech will be more sustained anyway.

Of course not but it's the main reason... the tech boom was very concentrated in California and Washington (not saying it was exclusively) which produced 4, trillion dollar companies and the myriad of other companies between 2010 and 2020.

It would seem them 2020s will see a decentralization of tech, which isn't to say California is going to stop being the innovation capital of the US but it won't be nearly as concentrated.

[badrunner]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

I think you aren't that familiar with CA.

The state's 2 largest metro areas have decent--not what it should be but what American metro does have what it should be outside of maybe NYC?--transit and are gradually expanding it. I'm obviously most familiar with SF and SF's Muni system pre-COVID provided a bus to most residents within 2 blocks of their doors and with service every 15-20 minutes on the least active routes and every 8 minutes or so on the most. The city also has a pretty extensive light rail network (still growing with the Central Subway line about to open soon) and a linear underground heavy rail (BART) through the center of town and through 5 major spokes into the suburbs. There are also supplementary rail systems in suburban counties that feed into the central system like SMART (Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit) and the East Contra Costa BART Extension.

LA is building out its rail transit as rapidly as a 21st century city can. It costs a lot more to do it now than 100 years ago when some of the world's great cities did it. But it now not only has a respectable subway/rail transit system but a decent commuter rail system as well.

But beyond that, CA subsidizes intercity rail like pretty much no other state: It pays for service on multiple AMTRAK routes: CalTrain, Capital Corridor, San Joaquin, Altamonte Express, Pacific Surfliner. And of course it has provided $10 billion of state funding for HSR which actually has a segment under construction (and a gorgeous new downtown SF station just waiting).

Meanwhile in Florida, not only does a private company (Brightline) have to pick up the slack to provide intercity service to connect the major cities, the state is actually threatening to charge Brightline for lost revenue on its toll roads. Just completely backwards.

Brightline may also face the unusual requirement that, in effect, it must compensate the expressway authority for lost toll revenues, due to anticipated diversion of motorists onto Brightline trains. According to the FDOT letter, Brightline must also: “agree that Brightline will submit a ridership and toll diversion study and analysis with updated traffic and methodology and documentation acceptable to CFX and Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise” and “agree to the method that will be used for Central Florida Expressway Authority (CFX) and the Department to recover any loss of toll revenue due to the construction and operation of the Brightline system.”

[edale]

Originally Posted by badrunner

Meanwhile in Florida, not only does a private company (Brightline) have to pick up the slack to provide intercity service to connect the major cities, the state is actually threatening to charge Brightline for lost revenue on its toll roads. Just completely backwards.

Aren't we about to have a Brightline of our own from the IE (hopefully eventually DTLA) to Vegas?

Please note, this is not me defending Florida in any way, shape, or form! lol

[10023]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Texas has become less affordable and growth has slowed already.

People will go elsewhere for cheaper options, as they always have
People aren't moving for Texas, they're moving for affordability. Sooner or later, it's gonna change.
.

It’s also weather, which isn’t as nice as coastal California but there is a long way to go before the affordability gap closes.

[10023]

Originally Posted by badrunner

Meanwhile in Florida, not only does a private company (Brightline) have to pick up the slack to provide intercity service to connect the major cities, the state is actually threatening to charge Brightline for lost revenue on its toll roads. Just completely backwards.

Nobody in Florida really gives a shut about public transportation though. Even in Brickell, where traffic is bad mostly because of the damn drawbridges over the river that open for any passing boat, it’s a lot easier to get around by car than in other dense cities.

[sopas ej]

Wait, so the Brightline in Florida hasn't been running for a while now because of the pandemic? I understand they're a private company, but what the hell kind of "public transportation" service is that?

[badrunner]

Originally Posted by edale

Aren't we about to have a Brightline of our own from the IE (hopefully eventually DTLA) to Vegas?

Please note, this is not me defending Florida in any way, shape, or form! lol

I'll believe it when I see it! I've seen too many vaporware proposals for an LA-LV train over the years. There's also the new proposed Amtrak route... I'm actually rooting for Brightline in Florida, but as you can see, the state isn't making it easy for them.

[MolsonExport]

Texas, maybe. Florida, no.

[badrunner]

Oh, and the reason that it has been private operators proposing the LA-LV route over the years is because it's an interstate route, one that primarily benefits Nevada and not California. So you wouldn't expect California taxpayers to foot the bill for it. I hope Brightline finally gets it done. All the track is already there. There was one proposal that featured a "party train" complete with stripper poles in the passenger cars. Real classy stuff

4 L.A.-to-Vegas Train Projects That Bit the Dust

[JManc]

Originally Posted by TexasPlaya

Of course not but it's the main reason... the tech boom was very concentrated in California and Washington (not saying it was exclusively) which produced 4, trillion dollar companies and the myriad of other companies between 2010 and 2020.

It would seem them 2020s will see a decentralization of tech, which isn't to say California is going to stop being the innovation capital of the US but it won't be nearly as concentrated.

And Texas's main industry, oil and gas, is in a slump dragging down the overall state economy. Austin is probably in the best shape as it's less exposed to the volatility than the other metros.