Stadiums & Arenas of Canada, Part 3

[esquire]

Originally Posted by SacTownAndy

Sacramento has a significantly larger media market than San Diego. After the whole Chargers debacle, I think it'll be tough to get any public funds approved in SD for a new arena.

According to this list, Sacramento ranks 20th and San Diego is 27th. But the appeal of the larger market size of Sacramento is dulled somewhat by the fact that it already has a NBA team that plays pretty well at the same time that a NHL team would. It's easy for a large city like Chicago or Dallas to support NHL and NBA teams at the same time, but it's generally going to be harder for a smaller market to pull off the same feat.

Interesting to note that the only US media market smaller than Vegas with a NHL team is Buffalo. Yet Vegas, despite its relatively small size, is thriving and is practically a model franchise that is no doubt making a pile of money. So there is more to it than just size.

Lastly, while I don't claim any detailed knowledge of San Diego municipal politics, it is basically a metro of over 3 million without a proper pro arena. The existing arena there is Ottawa Civic Centre calibre in terms of size and age. It would seem to me that a new building there, just as a civic amenity, is not an unreasonable proposition. I can understand when cities recoil at the idea of replacing functional, large and not altogether old arenas with new ones, but in San Diego's case I think it's fair to say that the old one is pretty well used up.

San Diego's Pechanga Arena, built 1966, cap. 12,920 (hockey)

[kev_427]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I'm not sure Milwaukee would be a great option. Not saying it isn't either, but whenever I see such a discrepancy in seating capacity between hockey and basketball layouts, it tells me the arena isn't great for hockey. We've seen this before, most recently at Barclays, but also in Phoenix originally, and those situations didn't work well. Maybe if the Bucks ownership was the interested party in bringing the NHL there, since they operate the arena, they could make it work. I doubt an outside owner could make a go of it there as a tenant in a substandard NHL arena. Thee Jets work at that capacity because they own the place.

The difference between Fiserv Forum and Barclays and Footprint Center is that Fiserv was designed with hockey in mind while the others are basketball specific. You can tell by looking at the seating charts that the rink is crammed and off centre and an entire section of seating is removed in the basketball specific arenas. The discrepency in seating capacity doesn't seem to correlate with whether an arena is basketball specific or not. That said, the hockey capacity at Fiserv on Wikipedia is much lower than I remembered. I'm not sure why that is but I think it's actually higher.

As for fan support, that shouldn't be a problem as Wisconsin is full of hockey fans, and I found an article that said a NHL preseason game at Fiserv sold out in minutes.

Kelowna would be a great location for an NHL team. BC is in desperate need of professional hockey.

[esquire]

I always thought it was curious that Milwaukee never landed a NHL team. Wisconsin is one of a handful of US states with a legitimately solid hockey culture. A lot of people play the game there, and there are many fans. I wonder if the issue is that Milwaukee is not huge and is already fairly well served by pro teams? (Bucks, Brewers, Packers down the road nearby)

As you can see below, the Wisconsin Badgers NCAA hockey program is a major draw down the road in Madison:



By the looks of it though, Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee is more along the lines of Barclays Center in terms of seating layout, which explains the significantly lower hockey seating capacity. Workable, but not ideal.

[MalcolmTucker]

If you're doing a long-term relocation with the SAME ownership group as the NBA, and hopefully the head-lease holder, you do renovations to optimize.

Certainly even a sub-optimal layout can sell more premium seats than the arena at ASU.

I think there is too much discounting of a different ownership group in Pheonix, and getting a good deal to go back to sharing an arena with the Suns after renovations.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

If you're doing a long-term relocation with the SAME ownership group as the NBA, and hopefully the head-lease holder, you do renovations to optimize.

Certainly even a sub-optimal layout can sell more premium seats than the arena at ASU.

I think there is too much discounting of a different ownership group in Pheonix, and getting a good deal to go back to sharing an arena with the Suns after renovations.

It's always possible, though they've had two decades to come forward and haven't.

[esquire]

What has become of the arena in Glendale? I wonder if they would play ball with a NHL ownership group that was a little more 'legitimate'.

It's incredible to me that there are two major arenas in the Phoenix area and neither wants a NHL team as a tenant. One would rather sit empty, apparently.

[thurmas]

I heard Glendale renovated the arena so it can no longer host hockey. Yotes pissed them off that badly

[TimB09]

Coyotes reached out to Tempe to try and see about building a new arena in that city.

They just aren't giving up!

[Oilkountry]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Atlanta had two shots at it, and failed both times. Though I wouldn't want to shut the door to a City that has had a team and lost it (worked out in Winnipeg, I'm sure it would in Quebec City), I don't think Atlanta should have a third try, at least not yet.

Honestly your line of thinking is so off. Although True north has seen some years of profit, Winnipeg has not been a success in any faction business wise in the NHL's eyes. If anything the jets have been the nail in the coffin for Quebec. Even in the good days of 2011-2018 the Jets may not have been drawing from the revenue share but weren't adding to it in any significant way either, I remember hearing an interview with Chipman where he said they run in the middle of the pack and had a neutral position in the revenue share program, That was peak ticket/concession prices in a full building and a strong economy. Best case scenario for the club and They were somewhere in the middle of the league.

Compare that to Vegas and Seattle, These are top 5-10 revenue earners out of the gate with endless potential to grow. I think the jets were a moral win for the NHL. But one they aren't willing to make again. Nobody outside of Canada wants another team in Quebec. Not the Players and certainly not owners/BOG. Its got all the knocks of Winnipeg, Buffalo and Edmonton but a French speaking community plaguing it further . Add that to the low population, sponsorship potential And TV contract leverage in comparison to Houston and Atlanta.... hell, Arizona will have 2 teams in mullet before Quebec city gets one in Videotron.

Truth hurts but its the truth. It works in Winnipeg because the revenue share program is there to pick up the slack on the bad years, Exactly what the league is trying to avoid, If it was about fan support every city in Canada with a 400K+ Metro would have a team.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Oilkountry

Although True north has seen some years of profit, Winnipeg has not been a success in any faction business wise in the NHL's eyes. If anything the jets have been the nail in the coffin for Quebec. Even in the good days of 2011-2018 the Jets may not have been drawing from the revenue share but weren't adding to it in any significant way either, I remember hearing an interview with Chipman where he said they run in the middle of the pack and had a neutral position in the revenue share program, That was peak ticket/concession prices in a full building and a strong economy. Best case scenario for the club and They were somewhere in the middle of the league.

Compare that to Vegas and Seattle, These are top 5-10 revenue earners out of the gate with endless potential to grow. I think the jets were a moral win for the NHL. But one they aren't willing to make again. Nobody outside of Canada wants another team in Quebec. Not the Players and certainly not owners/BOG. Its got all the knocks of Winnipeg, Buffalo and Edmonton but a French speaking community plaguing it further . Add that to the low population, sponsorship potential And TV contract leverage in comparison to Houston and Atlanta.... hell, Arizona will have 2 teams in mullet before Quebec city gets one in Videotron.

Truth hurts but its the truth. It works in Winnipeg because the revenue share program is there to pick up the slack on the bad years, Exactly what the league is trying to avoid, If it was about fan support every city in Canada with a 400K+ Metro would have a team.

Understanding your motto is "I don't want to hear your opinions on facts", this is a forum of mostly people who aren't experts with opinions on things.

That said, I get what's you're saying. Winnipeg is solidly middle of the pack, and Quebec might be as well (maybe even a bit under because they overlap with the Canadiens). As you say, Quebec would be a "moral" win, but unlikely as the league tries to move or sell teams in areas with bigger TV contracts.

The NHL has kind of lost its soul over the last few decades. At this point, it (and every other major league sports) are kind of a scam like many tech companies or crypto currency; they are worth more than the revenues they could ever achieve.

[ericmacm]

The Winnipeg Jets are 27th out of the total 32 in terms of franchise value, as of last year clocking in at $650M USD. Their operating income is in the same place, at $22M. At this point it is not quite middle of the pack, but it is certainly doing well for what is ultimately a very small market. The expansion fee at the time of Seattle joining in 2021 was $650M, which has certainly gone up since then. In the event of a hypothetical Quebec expansion, while the paper value of the franchise would likely be at least $650M or whatever the expansion value is now, that value likely wouldn’t grow (or possibly even shrink) for a number of years given the economics of the Quebec market (lower income and smaller than Winnipeg). The franchise value of Seattle is now $1.05B with an operating income of $67M.

Obviously the league is going to take a market that prints money and aggressively grows franchise values over one that might struggle to make the league any money at all for some time. The only case for a team in Quebec is relocation, where the bottom can be brought up to a slightly higher level. The Coyotes are worth $450M and make a $6M operating income. Since it is highly unlikely that other low-value teams (Florida, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus) will relocate, the Coyotes possibly moving is the only opportunity for Quebec to get a team. The finances of expansion just won’t work for Quebec.

It’s a hard truth but we just can’t compete with the economics of having more teams in the US. We are far too small.

[J.OT13]

I agree that the off chance Quebec gets a team it would be through relocation.

That said, the team valuations mean nothing. The Senators were pegged at $655 million (per Sportico, ranked 27th), but will likely sell for over a $Billion (which would rank us 11th or better). I'm curious what that will do to the valuations of all other franchises.

[blueandgoldguy]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I agree that the off chance Quebec gets a team it would be through relocation.

That said, the team valuations mean nothing. The Senators were pegged at $655 million (per Sportico, ranked 27th), but will likely sell for over a $Billion (which would rank us 11th or better). I'm curious what that will do to the valuations of all other franchises.

The reported bids on the Sens ($1 billion) which is well over their estimated value in Forbes and Sportric is likely tied to the assumed real estate deal that may be consummated with Lebroton Flats and the potential profits that can extracted from the additional developments. If the sens were building a new arena in an area surrounded by built-up areas I would think the team sells for $650- $800 million - their actual estimated worth.

Given the potential real estate involved, I'm not sure if other NHL franchises values will be affected to any great degree.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

The reported bids on the Sens ($1 billion) which is well over their estimated value in Forbes and Sportric is likely tied to the assumed real estate deal that may be consummated with Lebroton Flats and the potential profits that can extracted from the additional developments. If the sens were building a new arena in an area surrounded by built-up areas I would think the team sells for $650- $800 million - their actual estimated worth.

Given the potential real estate involved, I'm not sure if other NHL franchises values will be affected to any great degree.

For sure, the real estate play could be part of it, between LeBreton and the 70+ acres in Kanata. On the other hand, you'd think having to self fund a nearly Billion dollar arena (no chance of public money for this one) would bring the price down.

If Andlauer wins, we might see how much he gets for his 20% of the Canadiens, which may be even more interesting.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

For sure, the real estate play could be part of it, between LeBreton and the 70+ acres in Kanata. On the other hand, you'd think having to self fund a nearly Billion dollar arena (no chance of public money for this one) would bring the price down.

If Andlauer wins, we might see how much he gets for his 20% of the Canadiens, which may be even more interesting.

I don't think potential ownership groups conceptualize self funding the same way you or I conceptualize self funding. If you look at Seattle (privately financed but entirely tax funded), I think that is more what is in mind. Maybe I'm wrong?

Extracting a billion buck of extra surplus out of a real estate play of that scale is mighty hard anywhere in the world. Ten thousand units at $100,000 each, over and above normal profits.

[thurmas]

With UCP winning last night I guess Flames arena deal is a lock now. Just hope they put some money into renovations to mcmahon stadium.

[WhipperSnapper]

Valuations mean everything today. Ottawa's possible gross underestimated value is not a reason to infer they aren't of importance. All things considered, the Senators selling for $1 billion is low considering Seattle paid $650 million just for the expansion fee.

[Coldrsx]

Hopefully, but no guarantee.

Curious to see how this takes its next step.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by thurmas

With UCP winning last night I guess Flames arena deal is a lock now. Just hope they put some money into renovations to mcmahon stadium.

Yeah. I'm resigned to the fact that we as taxpayers are taking a bath on this and just hope that the new design is better than the previous Scotiabank HP Office Jet Pro arena.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Yeah. I'm resigned to the fact that we as taxpayers are taking a bath on this and just hope that the new design is better than the previous Scotiabank HP Office Jet Pro arena.