Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[MonctonRad]

Looks good.

I would be interested in seeing your take on the ridings in and around Freddy and SJ too.

[adamuptownsj]

Honestly, Saint John is OK. I'd rejigger things so Rothesay only goes into Quispamsis instead of Quispamsis and Saint John, but otherwise anything south and west of Sussex is fine.

Fredericton is tougher. I'd probably leave the 4 northern seats (Fredericton-York, -Grand Lake, -North, and Carleton-York) the same, maybe make Fredericton North more compact along the river south of the ring road. For the southern seats, I'd rather...

-an 'inner Fredericton' more or less following the old Fredericton South
-an Oromocto seat running from Lincoln to Petersville along Route 7
-an 'outer Fredericton' seat with the balance of Lincoln and northern Hanwell
-a York South seat including Fredericton Junction, Tract, Kingsclear, New Maryland, and the remainder of Hanwell

[adamuptownsj]

Actual results are out.

North
2018: 7 Lib, 1 PC
2020: 8 Lib
No change from current. The PC was Gauvin, of course.

Upper River Valley
2018: 4 Lib 1 PC
2020: 3 Lib 2 PC
No change from current.

Miramichi and Kent
2018: 2 Lib 1 Grn 2 PA
2020: 2 Lib 1 Grn 1 PC 1 PA
The new Miramichi West would have narrowly returned a PA MLA instead of a PC in 2018, but no change from the 2020 election despite major boundary changes.

Capital and outlying areas
2018: 1 Lib 4 PC 2 Grn 2 PA
2020: 7 PC 1 PA
From 2018 results, the PCs lose a seat to the Greens (nominally the new Fredericton South-Silverwood). However, from the 2020 results, the PCs sweep every seat... except for Austin's Grand Lake. Safe to say Fredericton was drawn mildly swingier.

Sussex to SJ to St Stephen
2018: 11 PC
2020: 11 PC
The only change is Gerry Lowe losing by a whisker in 2018 instead of winning by half a whisker.

Moncton and environs
2018: 8 Lib 2 PC 1 Grn
2020: 4 Lib 6 PC 1 Grn
Big changes to 2018 results: the Liberals win 2 seats instead of the PCs (Northwest and the new Champdoré-Moncton Irishtown-Lakeville). In 2020, though, Moncton would have seen a blue wave instead of a 1-seat gain: the PCs would have picked up the aforementioned two seats, plus South, as well as McKee's Centre seat. This would leave the Liberals with zero MLAs in English speaking seats. No partisan change though.

All NB
From 2018 results: -3 PC (+1 Lib, +1 Grn, +1 PA)
From 2020 results: +1 PC (-1 Grn)

This would have resulted in a slightly stronger PC majority of 28 in 2020, and
would have produced a 22 Lib/19 PC/4 Grn/4 PA result in 2018: enough to swing the province to a Liberal minority. Of course things don't happen in a vacuum, but I wanted to share these changes anyway.

I will be watching Miramichi Bay, which the PCs picked up in a by-election, the 4 2018/20 Lib>PC seats in Moncton, Saint John Harbour, and the 3 2018/20 Lib/Grn > PC seats in Fredericton. The other 40, below, are pretty secure... as far as anything is here. Miramichi East and Fredericton-Grand Lake will stick with Austin and Conroy, whether repping the blue or purple, I believe. Demise of PAs also moves Carleton-Victoria to the PC base from competitive.

This gives the parties a 'base' of
17x Liberal seats (all Franco)
21x PC seats (all Anglo)
2x Green seats (1 Anglo/1 Franco)

With 9 competitive
7 Anglo: Moncton Centre/Moncton South/Moncton Northwest/Saint John Harbour/Fredericton-Lincoln/Fredericton South-Silverwood/Fredericton North
2 mixed: Champdoré-Moncton Irishtown-Lakeville/Miramichi Bay

Liberal majority is made (in increasing order of difficulty) by... hanging on to Moncton Centre; flipping CMIL, SJ Harbour, Moncton South, Fredericton North, Miramichi Bay, and Moncton Northwest; for the 25th seat either get their own leader elected, beat Arseneau or Mitton, or flip a random Anglo PC seat elsewhere. I personally think it would be really funny for their leader to lose to the Greens or PCs, to keep the trend going. It is much easier for them to win a minority with Green backing than a majority.

If I was Holt I'd honestly try Fredericton-Lincoln instead of facing off against Coon and possibly Cardy as well as a hypothetical competitive PC in her home riding of Fredericton S-S. It was their 'best' 2020 Fredericton riding and the PC's worst, narrowly. No incumbent, since technically Coon and Cardy got smushed together.

PC path to victory is more straightforward. Hold at least 4 of their 8 competitive seats; or flip Moncton Centre, or Fredericton South-Silverwood. Assuming SJ Harbour continues its swingy trend and goes Liberal (or Green), and both mixed-language seats are lost to the Liberals as well, they can still afford to lose to Coon in Fredericton by hanging on to Moncton South, Fredericton North, Fredericton Lincoln, and Moncton Northwest. Higgs' biggest issue could be personally unpopular ministers losing otherwise fairly blue seats, instead of losing these competitive ones. Vote distribution remains very much in his favour, and even if he only picks up half the Alliance voters that really takes some seats off the table, due to their Mactaqac to Miramichi concentration.

Greens can't really 'win' so I presume their best case scenario is to hold their incumbents, take a serious stab at SJ Harbour and Fredericton-Lincoln, and do better in Restigouche and Beausejour/Dieppe in case a Liberal trips up. Flipping Liberal seats would be paradoxically bad, if they aren't also flipping PC seats. 3 Greens, 22 PCs, and 24 Liberals would be a better Green result than winning 6 seats while the PCs win 25.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

I saw this morning in the telegraph that Wayne Long is not going to run in the next federal election and is planning on running provincally. This leads to a few questions from me such as who runs in Wayne's riding, does the new riding flip, and which seat would Wayne run in provincally.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

I saw this morning in the telegraph that Wayne Long is not going to run in the next federal election and is planning on running provincally. This leads to a few questions from me such as who runs in Wayne's riding, does the new riding flip, and which seat would Wayne run in provincally.

I was just discussing this earlier with a colleague.

Who runs for SJ-Kennebecasis? Could be anyone. Glen Savoie as a Tory or Greg Stewart as.... IDK. A KV politician could have a good angle here. Trevor Holder probably wouldn't. Maybe Arlene Dunn goes for it as a Tory? Moderate, labour connections. There's always Hickey on the Liberal side but he seems cautious. One of the usual suspects for the Greens, but they'd have to resign to run.

Does it flip? Probably. Long severely overperformed and Mel Norton barely campaigned. Interestingly, Weston would have won this riding in 2019 by about 450 votes.

Which seat should Long run in? Kind of up to him. Harbour would be the easiest to win once, Dunn or not, but it would not be a fun seat to hold as a cabinet member... or especially as premier. Lancaster, he has a good shot of meeting Greg Norton in the general in a blueing area- I don't imagine Shepherd is reoffering. The KV seats and Portland-Simonds seats would be an uphill slog especially against the current incumbents. Rural areas are a no go. East maybe?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Who runs for SJ-Kennebecasis?

Last I checked the federal proposals are still proposing splitting SJ in two (East/West) so who is West Long replacement and who is East Long replacement

I'd imagine Long runs in Harbour but i'm on the outside-looking-in on this one.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Last I checked the federal proposals are still proposing splitting SJ in two (East/West) so who is West Long replacement and who is East Long replacement

I'd imagine Long runs in Harbour but i'm on the outside-looking-in on this one.

Federal maps are all but final; Williamson picks up the west side (bizarrely including Carleton) and loses everything from Pokiok to Hanwell to Tobique-Mactaquac. He also picks up Burton which Fredericton-Oromocto sheds. So it's basically an existing seat with 18,500 new Saint Johnners, 5,000 new Burtonians, 56,000 continuing rural voters from McAdam to Studholm, and less 12,000 people from Kingsclear, Hanwell, Harvey, and Dumfries/Prince William.

Conversely, 'Long's district' only adds 18,800 people in Quispamsis and loses the aforementioned 18,500 across the river. 63,000 voters remain in the riding from before. So it's definitely Long's- 7,000 more.

Interestingly, that's enough of a loss for Fundy Royal for it to pick up all of Riverview, which Moncton had to shed. Basically a long trade from fast growing to slow: Riverview from Moncton to F-R > Quispamsis from F-R to SJ > West side from SJ to NB Southwest

Completely plausible scenario: Long runs in Harbour and wins, Holt loses, another PC majority, Liberal leader Long

[adamuptownsj]

Crushing victory in PEI for King and the PCs with around 75,000 total votes. Dip in turnout from 2019's 83K/108K eligible (78%), but not exactly low-turnout.

Greens back to third-party status with only leader Bevan-Baker and one other incumbent surviving by about 3% each, as just enough incumbent Liberals (3) comfortably survive to take opposition status. Bevin-Baker and his PC opponent both obliterated the Liberal leader in her stupid decision to run against him.

NDP marginally improves, but that can be entirely attributed to ex-MLA Herb Dickieson taking 29% and 3rd in a bid to regain his seat, and another Dipper getting 20% in a 2-way race against a PC. Their leader came in a pathetic 4th place.

From what I can tell, the bottom totally fell out of the English-speaking rurals for Libs and Greens alike since 2019. PCs hoovered up those losses and made deep gains in Charlottetown.

What does this mean? Likely nothing- it's PEI.

[MonctonRad]

I expected Dennis King to comfortably win reelection, but this was more than I expected.

The Liberal leader ran against Bevan-Baker in his own riding. For the life of me, I can't imagine why she thought this was a good idea. she ended up coming in third place and may have nuked her own career.

Your analysis regarding the Dippers is probably correct. Herb Dickieson is personally popular and probably accounts for the slight uptick in NDP performance just by his own personal vote count.

Herb is an old classmate of mine, both from UPEI and Dal med school. He's a nice guy.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I expected Dennis King to comfortably win reelection, but this was more than I expected.

The Liberal leader ran against Bevan-Baker in his own riding. For the life of me, I can't imagine why she thought this was a good idea. she ended up coming in third place and may have nuked her own career.

Your analysis regarding the Dippers is probably correct. Herb Dickieson is personally popular and probably accounts for the slight uptick in NDP performance just by his own personal vote count.

Herb is an old classmate of mine, both from UPEI and Dal med school. He's a nice guy.

Dickieson did worse than he did in 2019, but not too much. People have to start realizing the NDP is consistently over-polled sometime right?

I presume the Liberals have a come-to-Anne moment and pick a rural leader. Greens will likely see B-B resign leadership but not any time soon (unless he's doing so right now, lol).

Island Party is stillborn with 0.5%. I guess intersectional left-populism isn't ready for primetime.

New Brunswick Liberal leader Holt faces some challenges too: she lives in the same riding (as of 2023) as Green leader David Coon AND myopic ex-NDP/ex-PC Dominic Cardy, who may reoffer as an independent. The surrounding ridings are all more Tory.... and this riding is close enough that Coon would have lost it to a PC in 2021. The by-election is also basically going to be 1-on-1 against an SANB-friendly Green populist folk musician... so that's hurdle 1.

My own preferences aside, the funniest option would be Coon beating her, giving the Liberals two Anglo leaders losing to third parties in two cycles. At that point they'll have to go with an Acadian leader or let Wayne Long or somebody try a reset with Anglo voters who vote PC or Green now. Either option is dangerous. If the Greens gain traction on the North Shore, or the Liberals cling too closely to it, it'll break the Grits for a long time.

[PEI highway guy]

[QUOTE=MonctonRad;9909414]

I expected Dennis King to comfortably win reelection, but this was more than I expected.

The Liberal leader ran against Bevan-Baker in his own riding. For the life of me, I can't imagine why she thought this was a good idea. she ended up coming in third place and may have nuked her own career.


I wasn''t surprsed the PC Party won and that the number of seats that the GGreens won fell. I was surprised the Liberals only have 3 seats.. I figured they would garner 5 to 8. In the Summerside area there seem to be a push to have MLAst on the government side. I know the Green Party is very disappointed in their results.

[adamuptownsj]

So I may have deduced some plans. Does this sound outlandish?

Wayne Long has been out and about head to head with his protégé Hickey like 5 nights this month so far around town. His pending retirement would position him perfectly for either the next provincial general election, or give him some breathing room for the next SJ mayoral election.

I am of the belief that he wants to be premier or mayor or both (who knows in what order). He has tons of viable options and plenty of time to consider them.

1) Mayor: serve out federal term (mid-2024?), consolidate Liberal/business support until the 2026 election, walk to election as mayor.
2) Provincial A: run in 2024 provincial election (Harbour?) and risk a loss. Position himself to replace Holt if she fails to beat the PCs... or moves back to Fredericton and loses her home riding.
3) Provincial B: DON'T run in 2024 and assume Holt loses. This is high-risk but he could explore it concurrently with a mayoral run. If Holt wins he's frozen out.

That leaves Hickey. He clearly wants a promotion but doesn't seem like the type to risk it on a Harbour coin flip or run in a blue seat, especially since he would have to resign from Council to run either provincially or federally, IIRC.

I think it's likely Hickey runs federally, for Saint John-Kennebecasis. It voted 43-36 for Long against Norton in 2021... but Long would have lost it 36-37 to Weston in 2019. There are precisely 0 elected Liberals here. Hickey has no connection to or base on the West Side; he's from K-Park and represents Ward 3. Plus, there are slim pickings for the CPC candidate-wise here, at first glance.

Hickey could theoretically run against Dunn in Harbour provincially, or tilt at windmills and hope one of Holder and Fleming retire in the coming year. But if Wayne Long has a strong chance at flipping Harbour, Hickey is more of a toss-up.

Not to keep discussion to Liberals or the east side of the river, I wonder if Shepherd finally retires. Not exactly stellar health ministry tenure, cancer issues, plus she'll have been around for 14 years by the election. Greg Norton is an obvious PC candidate here. Lancaster is probably out of reach for the Liberals without a star candidate currently. Otherwise there won't be much excitement.

On to the Greens- I presume they need new candidates provincially and federally. Neither Killen nor Harris seem very likely to resign from council to run as third-party candidates.

Anyway, just my take. It's interesting to have big-city style musical chair politics playing out here. Long is the elephant in the red room and a lot hinges around what he wants to run for. He has his pick of Saint John Harbour and the mayoralty, and could walk into party leadership if they have another dud with Holt. Hickey wants to move up and is probably not a horrible Liberal candidate in a swingy federal seat, but a loss puts him out of the picture until the subsequent provincial election.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

So I may have deduced some plans. Does this sound outlandish?

Wayne Long has been out and about head to head with his protégé Hickey like 5 nights this month so far around town. His pending retirement would position him perfectly for either the next provincial general election, or give him some breathing room for the next SJ mayoral election.

I am of the belief that he wants to be premier or mayor or both (who knows in what order). He has tons of viable options and plenty of time to consider them.

1) Mayor: serve out federal term (mid-2024?), consolidate Liberal/business support until the 2026 election, walk to election as mayor.
2) Provincial A: run in 2024 provincial election (Harbour?) and risk a loss. Position himself to replace Holt if she fails to beat the PCs... or moves back to Fredericton and loses her home riding.
3) Provincial B: DON'T run in 2024 and assume Holt loses. This is high-risk but he could explore it concurrently with a mayoral run. If Holt wins he's frozen out.

That leaves Hickey. He clearly wants a promotion but doesn't seem like the type to risk it on a Harbour coin flip or run in a blue seat, especially since he would have to resign from Council to run either provincially or federally, IIRC.

I think it's likely Hickey runs federally, for Saint John-Kennebecasis. It voted 43-36 for Long against Norton in 2021... but Long would have lost it 36-37 to Weston in 2019. There are precisely 0 elected Liberals here. Hickey has no connection to or base on the West Side; he's from K-Park and represents Ward 3. Plus, there are slim pickings for the CPC candidate-wise here, at first glance.

Hickey could theoretically run against Dunn in Harbour provincially, or tilt at windmills and hope one of Holder and Fleming retire in the coming year. But if Wayne Long has a strong chance at flipping Harbour, Hickey is more of a toss-up.

Not to keep discussion to Liberals or the east side of the river, I wonder if Shepherd finally retires. Not exactly stellar health ministry tenure, cancer issues, plus she'll have been around for 14 years by the election. Greg Norton is an obvious PC candidate here. Lancaster is probably out of reach for the Liberals without a star candidate currently. Otherwise there won't be much excitement.

On to the Greens- I presume they need new candidates provincially and federally. Neither Killen nor Harris seem very likely to resign from council to run as third-party candidates.

Anyway, just my take. It's interesting to have big-city style musical chair politics playing out here. Long is the elephant in the red room and a lot hinges around what he wants to run for. He has his pick of Saint John Harbour and the mayoralty, and could walk into party leadership if they have another dud with Holt. Hickey wants to move up and is probably not a horrible Liberal candidate in a swingy federal seat, but a loss puts him out of the picture until the subsequent provincial election.

I will agree with you that everything is dependent on where Wayne runs. I did a interview with Wayne last month and while he wouldn't comment on anything it sounded like he wants to run provincally and he mentioned running either in SJ Harbour or Kings county which seemed a bit suprising to me. I've also heard that it's likely that Harris and Hickey run against each other in SJ Harbour. I also heard a rumor that Norton is thinking of running but maybe not as a PC. For SJ municipal politics it doesn't seem that Mayor Reardon will run again and that a number of city councilors including Radwan are interested in the job. I'm going to have to go back and listen to my Wayne interview and see if he said anything else. It's interesting to try and figure out who runs where.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

I will agree with you that everything is dependent on where Wayne runs. I did a interview with Wayne last month and while he wouldn't comment on anything it sounded like he wants to run provincally and he mentioned running either in SJ Harbour or Kings county which seemed a bit suprising to me. I've also heard that it's likely that Harris and Hickey run against each other in SJ Harbour. I also heard a rumor that Norton is thinking of running but maybe not as a PC. For SJ municipal politics it doesn't seem that Mayor Reardon will run again and that a number of city councilors including Radwan are interested in the job. I'm going to have to go back and listen to my Wayne interview and see if he said anything else. It's interesting to try and figure out who runs where.

Interesting.

Kings would be complicated. Kings Centre and Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins are heavily PC and he would be humiliated with a loss. Quispamsis is also likely too blue, even if Higgs retires. Rothesay maybe, but it would be a steep climb. If Harbour is out, maybe Lancaster, if Shepherd stays. It could be a dark horse option.

Harris and Hickey would be interesting, because that seat is a crapshoot no matter what the electoral environment looks like. It's not like Dunn has had the stumbles Shepherd had, either. Hickey could probably win the Liberal nomination for the new federal riding since his lips are surgically attached to Long's ring.

Norton would be wise to consider who his municipal voters are before he considers a different party- presumably Liberal, I can't imagine him as a Green. Is Long trying to put together a 'moderate pro-business' Liberal team to run in the area? They have a ton of ground to try and make up. They came in third in a lot of places.

Council is going to be pretty slimmed down if 3 members go for provincial office next year. So who wants to be mayor- or even get reelected to Council?

I have no idea who else would want to run after Reardon, who has been pretty invisible. Radwan likely would run. Gary Sullivan? John MacKenzie? Greg Norton could pick up Mel's mantle and run with Stalinesque west side margins, if he doesn't run provincially.

Killen moved out of her ward and does no constituent service, Stewart apparently is disinterested and likely won't reoffer, Ogden has likely reached the pinnacle of his political success. Lowe won't do it plus he is almost one trillion years old. Harris is too polarizing and weird, and would have more luck in a split field in Harbour.

Now that I think about it, in 2026 we could have to elect an almost entirely new council.

There's a possibility both the Provincial Liberals and PCs (and the CPC) go shake some business owners, civil servants, public figures, etc. for office instead of municipal politicians with track records, too.

I don't believe there's any very ambitious or impressive KV councillors- Mackay French seems to have the bio of a climber. Mary Schryer is the only person out there who ever served provincially- 2006-2010 as Liberal Health Minister- but Higgs stomped her twice in 2010 and 2014. But I defer to someone local to the Valley on that.

[MonctonRad]

Greg Turner in Moncton has been mulling over whether or not he will reoffer in the next election.

I think his decision is predicated very much upon whether or not Higgs stays or goes. If Higgs decides to run again, I don't think Greg will reoffer.

[adamuptownsj]

Dominic Cardy has decided what Canada needs is an amorphous flash in the pan centrist party- all things to all people (AKA vaguely fiscally conservative and otherwise boilerplate liberal). Seems to consist of a lot of washed up Tories, random zoomer climate activists, and Christy Clark. Good luck with that. Maybe he'll at least quit the legislature.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cen...arty-1.6839129

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Greg Turner in Moncton has been mulling over whether or not he will reoffer in the next election.

I think his decision is predicated very much upon whether or not Higgs stays or goes. If Higgs decides to run again, I don't think Greg will reoffer.

Speaking of Moncton when I interviewed Daniel Allian he did not seem overly interested in running again. He wouldn't give me a straight answer but did say he will make his decision this summer. I think without Allain winning Moncton East would be damn near impossible for the PCs.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Dominic Cardy has decided what Canada needs is an amorphous flash in the pan centrist party- all things to all people (AKA vaguely fiscally conservative and otherwise boilerplate liberal). Seems to consist of a lot of washed up Tories, random zoomer climate activists, and Christy Clark. Good luck with that. Maybe he'll at least quit the legislature.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cen...arty-1.6839129

Dominic is definitely the weirdest MLA in the province. Interviewed him back in January and all he did was talk about how much of a threat China and Russia are to the West.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Interesting.

Kings would be complicated. Kings Centre and Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins are heavily PC and he would be humiliated with a loss. Quispamsis is also likely too blue, even if Higgs retires. Rothesay maybe, but it would be a steep climb. If Harbour is out, maybe Lancaster, if Shepherd stays. It could be a dark horse option.

Harris and Hickey would be interesting, because that seat is a crapshoot no matter what the electoral environment looks like. It's not like Dunn has had the stumbles Shepherd had, either. Hickey could probably win the Liberal nomination for the new federal riding since his lips are surgically attached to Long's ring.

Norton would be wise to consider who his municipal voters are before he considers a different party- presumably Liberal, I can't imagine him as a Green. Is Long trying to put together a 'moderate pro-business' Liberal team to run in the area? They have a ton of ground to try and make up. They came in third in a lot of places.

Council is going to be pretty slimmed down if 3 members go for provincial office next year. So who wants to be mayor- or even get reelected to Council?

I have no idea who else would want to run after Reardon, who has been pretty invisible. Radwan likely would run. Gary Sullivan? John MacKenzie? Greg Norton could pick up Mel's mantle and run with Stalinesque west side margins, if he doesn't run provincially.

Killen moved out of her ward and does no constituent service, Stewart apparently is disinterested and likely won't reoffer, Ogden has likely reached the pinnacle of his political success. Lowe won't do it plus he is almost one trillion years old. Harris is too polarizing and weird, and would have more luck in a split field in Harbour.

Now that I think about it, in 2026 we could have to elect an almost entirely new council.

There's a possibility both the Provincial Liberals and PCs (and the CPC) go shake some business owners, civil servants, public figures, etc. for office instead of municipal politicians with track records, too.

I don't believe there's any very ambitious or impressive KV councillors- Mackay French seems to have the bio of a climber. Mary Schryer is the only person out there who ever served provincially- 2006-2010 as Liberal Health Minister- but Higgs stomped her twice in 2010 and 2014. But I defer to someone local to the Valley on that.

Now with SJ being split into 2 federal ridings do you think any of the councilors would try to run in St. Croix-Saint John.
Also on the topic of Long he is definitely full of himself. I remember him saying that he could win any seat he ran in and if wanted to could be a MP for as long as he wanted. I thought It to be a bit cocky but people must like that about him.

[adamuptownsj]

1. We're a ways out from the next election and I doubt any decisions are final. Allain and Turner both lack something- vested MLA pensions, which they are likely to get even with a PC minority being reelected. So I think they most likely stick around. Allain is probably burned out from municipal reform right now.

2. I am loathe to get too personally critical with politicians since I am not extremely anonymous, but Cardy is crazier than a shithouse rat! He thinks he's some saviour of 'the West,' openly calls himself a neoliberal, freaks out on Twitter about foreign policy constantly, and he must have a Postmedia hotline. They call him for a take every time Higgs sneezes. You think they'd call Gauvin or Holt or Coon or someone else relevant. Does he even run again? Where? For who? His options are Holt's home Fredericton South-Silverwood seat (I 100% think she's moving back there) or the anodyne Jeff Carr's Hanwell-New Maryland seat. Maybe he tries his luck 'running from the centre' against Atwin. Who knows?

3. I don't think Norton or Killen (or the at-large guys) would forfeit their council seats for a longshot against Williamson. The new SJ-SC voted 47-28 CPC-Liberal twice in a row, and that's with West Saint John voting more Liberal than normal for Wayne Long. Williamson is as secure as an East Coast Tory can hope to be, and he's DEFINITELY going for another term. I presume Liberals punt on all CPC incumbents except for Stewart, who they'll struggle to dislodge too. Unless they want a 5-5 delegation they HAVE to hold SJ-KV, and that's not even getting into Fredericton-Oromocto. It isn't out of reach for the opposition either. Conservatives have been within 4-5 points the last two cycles.