The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[Calgarian]

Does the thermal management system work if a battery cell is ruptured in a crash? That's the concern most people have with regards to EV safety.

I still see lots of sources that state the lithium supply can't handle the projected demand if EV displaces ICE. https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...-ion-battery-m This was the top hit on google.

I am aware there are electric Tuk Tuks, but they are going to be the small minority for a long time, the technology is still quite expensive. EV is clearly the future, but there is a lot of work to be done to actually displace ICE...

[lubicon]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I would say there's a 50/50 chance my next new car will be an EV (depending on how long my current vehicles last).

Moncton, out of curiosity what incentives (if any) does New Brunswick offer for EV's. And if there were none (including federal) would you still be choosing an EV.

Not picking on you, I'd seriously look at an EV for my next vehicle too. I'm just wondering how much the various incentives factor in people's decision to purchase.

Also what is the breakdown of where NB sources it's electricity?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

Does the thermal management system work if a battery cell is ruptured in a crash? That's the concern most people have with regards to EV safety.

About as likely as a gasoline fire in a crash.

Originally Posted by Calgarian

I still see lots of sources that state the lithium supply can't handle the projected demand if EV displaces ICE. https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...-ion-battery-m This was the top hit on google.

And yet, none of that is preventing battery pack prices from coming down steadily along the cost curves. So basically an economically irrelevant problem.

Originally Posted by Calgarian

I am aware there are electric Tuk Tuks, but they are going to be the small minority for a long time, the technology is still quite expensive.

Define "long time". Countries like Thailand and India are literally banning petrol and CNG Tuk Tuks beyond 2025. And they are confident they can do so, because the switch is happening without any government intervention to begin with. But just to speed the process along Thailand is offering free conversion to electric for all of the country's 22 000 petrol Tuk Tuks.

Fuel is so expensive in those countries. And electric three wheelers are so cheap to operate and maintain, with little to no capital cost difference on the initial purchase that the uptake has been substantial. Unlike an EV for you or me, they don't need fancy motors, fast charging, lots of software or a large battery.

Watch this interview with a Thai Electric Tuk Tuk driver who helps explain how the economics work in favour of electric Tuk Tuks:

• Video Link


The economics are so solid, that conversion to electric actually raises the income of Tuk Tuk drivers:

In India, drivers who rent two-stroke autorickshaws generally earn the equivalent of less than eight dollars a day, but Narasimhamurthy now earns as much as 50 percent more, since four-stroke autorickshaws are more fuel efficient and incur lower maintenance costs. Once he finishes paying off the loan, his income will increase to the equivalent of nearly 15 dollars per day.

Source: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com...e25597408.ece#


In India, sales of electric three wheelers are already outpacing petrol, diesel and CNG three wheelers:

As per data shared by the Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles (SMEV), the apex lobby body for electric vehicles, sales of electric three-wheeler segment grew 21 percent during 2018-19 to 630,000 as against 520,000 sold in 2017-18.

In 2018, sales of petrol, diesel and CNG-powered passenger three wheelers grew by just 10.6 percent to 572,400 units, compared to 517,400 units sold in 2017-18, according to data shared by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/te...a-4219971.html

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Source: https://www.iea.org/news/electric-ca...bal-car-market

Yep EV sales are .... down for 2020.

The combination of a pandemic, supply-chain disruptions, economywide lockdowns and a worldwide recession is bad news for virtually every industry, and the electric vehicle sector is no exception. Add a historic decline in oil prices making fossil fuels cheaper at the pump, and 2020 is shaping up to be an especially rough year for the plug-in car market.

Global passenger EV sales declined sharply in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. China, the world’s largest auto market, saw EV sales plunge by 60 percent in February compared to the same month last year. The precipitous drop came on top of softening consumer demand for plug-in cars prior to the pandemic, as the government started to phase out subsidies.

In the U.S., EV sales in April fell by more than 50 percent compared to the same month a year earlier. This follows a down year for EV sales in America in 2019. Congress failed to extend federal tax credits for EVs last year, removing a key incentive for top electric car manufacturers going forward.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance anticipates global EV sales will fall by 18 percent in 2020 — to 1.7 million sales worldwide — as the overall automotive market contracts.

Wood Mackenzie has a more pessimistic forecast. The research and consulting firm projects that global EV sales will fall by a whopping 43 percent this year — to 1.3 million vehicles by the end of 2020 — driven primarily by manufacturing delays and weak consumer demand.


https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...ad-to-recovery

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by jawagord

Yep EV sales are .... down for 2020.

How's the rest of the auto sector doing?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lubicon

Moncton, out of curiosity what incentives (if any) does New Brunswick offer for EV's. And if there were none (including federal) would you still be choosing an EV.

Not picking on you, I'd seriously look at an EV for my next vehicle too. I'm just wondering how much the various incentives factor in people's decision to purchase.

Also what is the breakdown of where NB sources it's electricity?

There are no EV incentives in NB AFAIK.

The installed base of EVs in the province is very low. Certainly only in the low hundreds of vehicles. They are difficult to purchase in province at present. Despite this, there are an increasing number of EV charging stations available, including at my car dealership (BMW), and at a nearby gas station, including rapid Tesla chargers.

NB has a nuclear power plant (Lepreau) and a couple of hydroelectric power generation stations (largest Mactaquac on the Saint John River). There is a coal power plant up on the Chaleur Bay, but it is being phased out.

As I said before, the choice whether or not my next vehicle is an EV depends entirely on how long I keep my current two cars. If I end up replacing one in the next couple of years, it will likely be with another ICE. If however I wait five years, I really think the EV market will have matured enough to be a viable option.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

How's the rest of the auto sector doing?

About the same, though I wouldn't be surprised if there's a recovery later in the year given the impact of COVID on mass transit and deferred demand. Used car prices are already strengthening.

And really, the hype of EVs requires strong (if not quite exponential) growth for years to come. With the bursting of the Chinese bubble, constant EV sales fraction of the total auto market is not a sign of imminent disruption.

And while China is often touted as trying to dominate the EV and battery future, even it is not willing to throw unlimited resources at it, with the declining subsidies first for EVs and now also for batteries. Once favored child and once seemingly unstoppable battery juggernaut CAT-L seems to be under a lot more pressure now that domestic subsidies and protections are declining.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Ca...yers-muscle-in

Perhaps they needed the money to buy more oil when it's still pretty cheap:

In June, according to data compiled by OilX, China’s crude oil imports hit a record high of 11.93 million bpd—an increase of 820,000 bpd from May levels, which were also at record levels.

This 11.93 million bpd represents a 2.4 million bpd increase year over year, which is a 25.4% increase.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...cord-High.html

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by accord1999

Perhaps they needed the money to buy more oil when it's still pretty cheap

I'm sure that has absolutely nothing to do with filling their strategic reserve....

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by accord1999

About the same, though I wouldn't be surprised if there's a recovery later in the year given the impact of COVID on mass transit and deferred demand. Used car prices are already strengthening.

And really, the hype of EVs requires strong (if not quite exponential) growth for years to come. With the bursting of the Chinese bubble, constant EV sales fraction of the total auto market is not a sign of imminent disruption.

I know everyone in Alberta keeps hoping that's the case. Let's just wait out the year and see how it plays out. I don't see any pull back on all the battery factories under construction. Or OEMs that are going full bore like VW.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

There are no EV incentives in NB AFAIK.

The installed base of EVs in the province is very low. Certainly only in the low hundreds of vehicles. They are difficult to purchase in province at present. Despite this, there are an increasing number of EV charging stations available, including at my car dealership (BMW), and at a nearby gas station, including rapid Tesla chargers.

NB has a nuclear power plant (Lepreau) and a couple of hydroelectric power generation stations (largest Mactaquac on the Saint John River). There is a coal power plant up on the Chaleur Bay, but it is being phased out.

What has always been really interesting to is where the utilities fall in this. In Ontario and Quebec, the power companies have both launched charging networks. And they see a business opportunity to capture part of the spending that goes to oil cos. But NB would be very different with the Irvings I would imagine.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

As I said before, the choice whether or not my next vehicle is an EV depends entirely on how long I keep my current two cars. If I end up replacing one in the next couple of years, it will likely be with another ICE. If however I wait five years, I really think the EV market will have matured enough to be a viable option.

I'm about where you are. If I buy another ICE no way I want it more than 3-4 years. So that has me thinking either hold out till 2022-2023. Or get a used car next year that can get me through till 2025. My current vehicle is 7 years old. I drove my last one for 9 years. But with the carbon tax sure to go up, costs coming down, things are lining up for the jump. And quite frankly the idea of not having to pump gas or bother with oil changes anymore is kinda appealing.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm about where you are. If I buy another ICE no way I want it more than 3-4 years. So that has me thinking either hold out till 2022-2023. Or get a used car next year that can get me through till 2025. My current vehicle is 7 years old. I drove my last one for 9 years. But with the carbon tax sure to go up, costs coming down, things are lining up for the jump. And quite frankly the idea of not having to pump gas or bother with oil changes anymore is kinda appealing.

Based on the feedback from everyone I know who's switched to EVs (my sister and some close friends), you should definitely switch and I guarantee you won't regret it. (Same comment to MonctonRad.)

Unfortunately, my own driving patterns are a total anti-match for an EV. Plus I need a truck some of the time. Otherwise I'd have bought one years ago.

One of my friends, a notorious cheapskate, got a used Nissan Leaf for $5k last year. I think he had to change a part on it though (couple grand).

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lio45

Based on the feedback from everyone I know who's switched to EVs (my sister and some close friends), you should definitely switch and I guarantee you won't regret it. (Same comment to MonctonRad.).

Got my current vehicle when single. Now married. So the vehicle has to be spouse operation and family friendly. Not as much in the space to date. Though there's finally CUVs coming in a reasonable price range.

The other big issue is charging for me. Live in a condo. So I'm hoping the board will sort that out in a year. Several owners have asked. The board is now looking into it. So I still have some time... Good to see what's out there and coming out, just to get a feel for the market.

Originally Posted by lio45

Unfortunately, my own driving patterns are a total anti-match for an EV. Plus I need a truck some of the time. Otherwise I'd have bought one years ago.

If I could afford it, I'd have a a pre-order in for a Rivian. I can't wait for their trucks to hit the road. And their CEO is everything Elon Musk pretends to be. So I have no doubt they will deliver an amazing product once they start going out the door.

• Video Link

[milomilo]

I cannot get past the Rivian's headlights. Why can't they just be normal? So ugly, when the rest of the truck looks fine.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by milomilo

I cannot get past the Rivian's headlights. Why can't they just be normal? So ugly, when the rest of the truck looks fine.

I like it. Vaguely reminiscent of the older Land Rovers.



And they use the light bar in front as a charging indicator.

[Truenorth00]

Just a reminder, that expensive Raptor will never be able to do this:

• Video Link

[Calgarian]

Haha, I can see a lot of people digging themselves into a hole with that feature!

[MolsonExport]

won't a lot of prickup truck drivers avoid EV out of religious convictions (i.e., wanting...or very badly needing to own the libs)?

[Calgarian]

Towing capacity of EV trucks will be where they are good or bad, lots of people buy a truck for the 3 camping trips they take every year with the boat or trailer. If you can't get a good range while towing, the ICE pickups will reign supreme. As a daily driver people will find out that they are still a truck and adapt.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

Towing capacity of EV trucks will be where they are good or bad, lots of people buy a truck for the 3 camping trips they take every year with the boat or trailer. If you can't get a good range while towing, the ICE pickups will reign supreme. As a daily driver people will find out that they are still a truck and adapt.

The Rivian truck is literally designed to target the camping crowd. Complete with a pull out kitchen:

• Video Link

Towing range is always going to be lower than rated range. And sometimes lower than gas vehicles (the highest Rivian battery has a stated 600 mile range so maybe 400 miles when towing). The question becomes whether the towing range is sufficient for what someone does.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

won't a lot of prickup truck drivers avoid EV out of religious convictions (i.e., wanting...or very badly needing to own the libs)?

I don't think they will. In many ways pickup trucks are much better suited to electrification than passenger sedans. More room means larger batteries, but still more cab space and lower centre of gravity. That much electrical power enables unique options. Rivian doesn't just have a camp kitchen as an option. It includes an air compressor and three standard outlets in the bed. That same gear tunnel where the camp kitchen is built in could easily accommodate a pull out tool or work station. This is kinda the ideal work truck. And I think we'll see plenty of fleets go electric in the next 5 years.