HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #661  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2022, 1:19 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Australia's 2021 Census is out: 25,422,788


Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
Canadian 2021 Census is out: 36,991,981 inh.

I guess the comparison is inevitable:

----------------------- 2021 --------- 2011 --------- 2001 ---------- 1991 --------- Growth %
CANADA ------------- 36,991,981 ---- 33,476,688 ---- 30,007,094 ---- 27,296,859 --- 10.5% --- 11.6% ---- 9.9%

----------------------- 2020 --------- 2010 --------- 2000 ---------- 1990 --------- Growth %
UNITED STATES ----- 331,449,281 --- 308,745,538 --- 281,421,906 --- 248,709,873 ---- 7.3% ---- 9.7% --- 13.2%

Canada's policy of mass immigration is working very well and their growth is considerably bigger than the US despite having a much lower fertility rate.

Immigration answers for over 80% of Canadian growth (about 300k-350k admissions/year) whereas the US is now below 1 million.
------------------------ 2021 ----------- 2011 ----------- 2001 ------------ 1991 --------- Growth %
AUSTRALIA --------- 25,422,788 ---- 21,507,719 ---- 18,769,249 --- 17,284,036 --- 18.2% --- 14.6% --- 8.6%

Australia following the Northern European path and it's speeding up. 18.2% is insane. Meanwhile, the US is about to become stagnant.

According to the Census, 1/3 of Australians were born overseas, of which 927k in England, 673k in India, 549k in mainland China, 530k in New Zealand and 294 in Philippines;

45.3% of Australians have no religion or didn't state it; 47.1% are Christians (20% Catholics, 9.8% Anglicans), 3.2% are Muslims;

Only 7.3% of Australians houses have no vehicles and 18.8% have 3 or more. I was curious and checked: that's as autocentric as the US: 8% of households there have no cars and 21.9% have 3 or more.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #662  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2022, 1:25 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
Now the metro areas, Toronto+Hamilton+Oshawa+Guelph and Vancouver+Abbotsford:

------------------ 2020/2021 ------- 2010/2011 ------- 2000/2001 ------- 1990/1991

New York ---------- 22.692.839 --- 21.358.372 --- 20.675.403 --- 19.083.415 ----- 6,25% ----- 3,30% ----- 8,34%

Los Angeles ------- 18.644.680 --- 17.877.006 --- 16.373.645 --- 14.531.529 ----- 4,29% ----- 9,18% ---- 12,68%

Chicago ------------ 9.618.502 ---- 9.461.105 ---- 9.098.314 ---- 8.182.076 ----- 1,66% ----- 3,99% ---- 11,20%

San Francisco ------ 8.036.501 ---- 7.413.121 ---- 7.039.362 ---- 6.253.311 ----- 8,41% ----- 5,31% ---- 12,57%

Dallas ------------- 7.637.387 ---- 6.366.542 ---- 5.156.217 ---- 3.984.437 ---- 19,96% ---- 23,47% ---- 29,41%


Toronto ------------ 7.568.308 ---- 6.801.391 ---- 5.758.940 ---- 4.827.910 ---- 11,30% ---- 18,10% ---- 19,30%

Houston ------------ 7.122.240 ---- 5.920.416 ---- 4.693.161 ---- 3.750.883 ---- 20,30% ---- 26,15% ---- 25,12%

Philadelphia ------- 6.245.051 ---- 5.965.353 ---- 5.687.147 ---- 5.435.468 ----- 4,69% ----- 4,89% ----- 4,63%

Miami -------------- 6.138.333 ---- 5.564.635 ---- 5.007.564 ---- 4.056.100 ---- 10,31% ---- 11,12% ---- 23,46%

Washington --------- 6.105.431 ---- 5.388.326 ---- 4.635.194 ---- 3.997.373 ---- 13,31% ---- 16,25% ---- 15,96%

Boston ------------- 6.095.791 ---- 5.628.532 ---- 5.410.915 ---- 5.075.440 ----- 8,30% ----- 4,02% ----- 6,61%

Atlanta ------------ 6.089.815 ---- 5.286.728 ---- 4.263.438 ---- 3.082.308 ---- 15,19% ---- 24,00% ---- 38,32%

Detroit ------------ 5.325.319 ---- 5.218.852 ---- 5.357.538 ---- 5.095.695 ----- 2,04% ---- -2,59% ----- 5,14%

Seattle ------------ 4.871.272 ---- 4.199.312 ---- 3.707.144 ---- 3.088.224 ---- 16,00% ---- 13,28% ---- 20,04%

Phoenix ------------ 4.845.832 ---- 4.192.887 ---- 3.251.876 ---- 2.238.480 ---- 15,57% ---- 28,94% ---- 45,27%


Montreal ----------- 4.291.732 ---- 3.824.221 ---- 3.426.350 ---- 3.127.242 ---- 12,20% ---- 11,60% ----- 9,60%

Minneapolis -------- 3.635.128 ---- 3.279.833 ---- 2.968.806 ---- 2.538.834 ---- 10,83% ---- 10,48% ---- 16,94%

Denver ------------- 3.623.560 ---- 3.090.874 ---- 2.610.343 ---- 2.008.684 ---- 17,23% ---- 18,41% ---- 29,95%

San Diego ---------- 3.298.634 ---- 3.095.313 ---- 2.813.833 ---- 2.498.016 ----- 6,57% ---- 10,00% ---- 12,64%

Tampa -------------- 3.175.275 ---- 2.783.243 ---- 2.395.998 ---- 2.067.959 ---- 14,09% ---- 16,16% ---- 15,86%


Vancouver ---------- 2.838.551 ---- 2.483.519 ---- 2.134.335 ---- 1.712.502 ---- 14,30% ---- 16,40% ---- 24,60%

Baltimore ----------- 2.794.636 ---- 2.662.691 ---- 2.512.431 ---- 2.348.221 ----- 4,96% ----- 5,98% ----- 6,99%

Cleveland ----------- 2.790.470 ---- 2.780.440 ---- 2.843.103 ---- 2.759.823 ----- 0,36% ---- -2,20% ----- 3,02%

St. Louis ----------- 2.754.124 ---- 2.717.079 ---- 2.648.607 ---- 2.492.525 ----- 1,36% ----- 2,59% ----- 6,26%




--- Toronto slowing down considerably last decade, while its Texan competitors keep the pace (Houston not so much) and San Francisco goes faster. At least three decades behind Chicago;

--- Montreal is alone: way above Minneapolis but way behind Seattle and Phoenix. And faster than Toronto for the first time in almost a century;

--- Vancouver about to break the 3 million barrier.
And now Australia's metro areas. Sydney+Central Coast:

------------------ 2021 ------- 2011 ------- 2001 ------- 1991

Sydney ---------- 5,173,227 --- 4,555,281 --- 4,053,822 --- 3,632,994 ----- 13.6% --- 12.4% --- 11.6%

Melbourne ------- 4,817,483 --- 4,025,375 --- 3,382,772 --- 3,092,675 ----- 19.7% --- 19.0% ---- 9.4%

Brisbane -------- 2,447,280 --- 2,076,608 --- 1,637,341 --- 1,365,414 ----- 17.8% --- 26.8% --- 19.9%

Perth ----------- 2,098,239 --- 1,804,239 --- 1,434,868 --- 1,212,111 ----- 16.3% --- 25.7% --- 18.4%

Adelaide -------- 1,368,209 --- 1,245,896 --- 1,130,517 --- 1,077,904 ------ 9.8% --- 10.2% ---- 4.9%

Gold Coast -------- 693,596 ----- 581,036 ----- 433,224 ----- 288,124 ----- 19.4% --- 34.1% --- 50.4%

Newcastle --------- 508,437 ----- 453,265 ----- 412,810 ----- 387,213 ----- 12.2% ---- 9.8% ---- 6.6%

Canberra ---------- 490,517 ----- 405,014 ----- 352,774 ----- 312,054 ----- 21.1% --- 14.8% --- 13.0%

Sunshine Coast ---- 382,903 ----- 281,005 ----- 213,217 ----- 140.950 ----- 36.3% --- 31.8% --- 51.3%


Melbourne is getting closer to overtake Sydney, but it seems it won't be a shift as dramatic as Montreal and Toronto or Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. Sydney still grows fast and holds very strong national institutions.

And not only Melbourne is growing much faster than Sydney, but also faster than the always booming Brisbane and Perth.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #663  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2022, 1:54 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Brooklyn, NYC/Polanco, DF
Posts: 30,551
Germany has been growing pretty quickly, but long-term it's still likely that France surpasses Germany. France has much higher birth rates, and has maintained those rates, which is almost unprecedented in the western world.

Germany had a temporary population boost due to Syria and now Ukraine. As both areas stabilize, some migrants will return.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #664  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2022, 2:09 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Germany has been growing pretty quickly, but long-term it's still likely that France surpasses Germany. France has much higher birth rates, and has maintained those rates, which is almost unprecedented in the western world.

Germany had a temporary population boost due to Syria and now Ukraine. As both areas stabilize, some migrants will return.
It's an 18 million people head now. Germany improved its TFR and since 2016 has been registering more births than France. Of course, it has much more deaths, but mass immigration are offsetting those. And France is on the brink of having no natural growth. That would be the first time since WWII, a period France had one the worst demographics in the world (1750-1940).

If we have Germany losing 200k people year and France gaining 100k people year (which is a bad scenario for Germany and an ok one for France), it would take 60 years. For such a big timespan, any projection is just guessing. 30 years are the most we can somehow predict and the margin of error would still be quite large.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #665  
Old Posted Oct 17, 2022, 3:16 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
BBC:

Venezuela crisis: 7.1m leave country since 2015

Colombia --- 2,480,000

Peru --- 1,490,000

United States --- 545,000

Ecuador --- 502,000

Chile --- 448,000

Spain --- 438,000

Brazil --- 365,000

Argentina --- 171,000

Panama --- 144,000

Dominican Rep. --- 115,000

That's almost like the 7.7 million that left Ukraine due war. Unfortunately Venezuelans don't publish stats anymore and I guess we'll have to wait for their census too see the demographic impact there.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #666  
Old Posted Nov 12, 2022, 11:56 AM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
UK 2021 Census

Now we have the detailed numbers for the UK Census (minus for Scotland, postponed for 2022). I'll start with London first.

2021 Census showed London coming below estimates whereas the neighbouring counties coming above, and as result, London grew less than its metro area for the first time since 1991 (7.3% vs 7.8%). Both, however, still above England (6.4%) and the UK (5.8%). At least concerning London, the "flight back to the city" eased a bit. Covid might have contributed though.

----------------- 2021 ------- 2011 ------- 2001 ------- 1991 ------- Growth/decade ------- Area
London MA -- 17,915,145 -- 16,619,216 -- 15,106,200 -- 14,219,700 --- 7.8% -- 10.0% --- 6.2% -- 17,586 Km²
London ------- 8,799,728 --- 8,204,407 --- 7,322,400 --- 6,829,300 --- 7.3% -- 12.0% --- 7.2% --- 1,572 Km²

And when we look to a more strict definition of London metro area, growth is smaller, suggesting not only suburbanization occured, but also exurbanization as well:

----------------- 2021 ------- 2011 ------- 2001 ------- 1991 ------- Growth/decade ------- Area
London MA -- 15,876,845 -- 14,744,549 -- 13,395,000 -- 12,631,100 --- 7.7% -- 10.1% --- 6.0% --- 12,162 Km²

I'll bring the other British metro areas later.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #667  
Old Posted Nov 12, 2022, 5:34 PM
muppet's Avatar
muppet muppet is offline
if I sang out of tune
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: London
Posts: 6,185
But bear in mind too the Census, bless em, was conducted at the height of a lockdown, after millions lost work and moved.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #668  
Old Posted Nov 12, 2022, 6:53 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Quote:
Originally Posted by muppet View Post
But bear in mind too the Census, bless em, was conducted at the height of a lockdown, after millions lost work and moved.
Even though European immigration to Britain was one of the main reasons for people voted to Leave, it's become even more clear that Brexit had pretty much no impact on immigration. People keep arriving at the UK, despite Brexit, despite Covid. And of course, that will keep London growing.

By the next census, we can have a 70 million people UK and maybe a 10 million people London and a 20 million people London metro area.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #669  
Old Posted Nov 12, 2022, 7:30 PM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
cle/west village/shaolin
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 11,589
Quote:
Originally Posted by nito View Post
The urban morphology of British cities deviated from their North American counterparts due to the post-war implementation of Green Belts to prevent sprawl. London, Cambridge and Oxford each have their own Green Belts. USCB definitions of metropolitan areas are based around urban sprawl, so the limitation of sprawl would invalidate all three cities being part of the same metropolitan area.

Green Belts however don’t limit the level of interactions, connectivity or commuting. Which is why you end up with the following outcomes.

Pre-pandemic train arrivals into New York and London between 0800-0859 originating from
Princeton Junction – 3
New Haven – 5
Oxford – 8
Cambridge - 12

The second most over-crowded service on the National Rail network was a 12-carriage train from Cambridge to London King’s Cross.
otoh the auto/bus traffic in and out would dwarf that ridership. its not like there is more commuting, thats just a mode.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #670  
Old Posted Nov 12, 2022, 8:28 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
UK 2021 Census

--------------------------- 2021 ------- 2011 ------- 2001 ------- 1991 ------- Growth/decade ------- Area
Code:
London -------------- 17,915,145 -- 16,619,216 -- 15,106,200 -- 14,219,700 --- 7.8% -- 10.0% --- 6.2% -- 17,586 Km²
Manchester-Liverpool - 6,917,553 --- 6,556,144 --- 6,285,100 --- 6,356,700 --- 5.5% --- 4.3% -- -1,1% --- 7,339 Km²
Birmingham ----------- 5,254,576 --- 4,951,109 --- 4,664,000 --- 4,659,300 --- 6.1% --- 6.2% --- 0.1% --- 7,331 Km²
Leeds-Bradford ------- 2,351,582 --- 2,227,371 --- 2,083,100 --- 2,061,700 --- 5.6% --- 6.9% --- 1.0% --- 2,029 Km²
Glasgow -------------- 1,849,070 --- 1,787,020 --- 1,750,210 --- 1,818,920 --- 3.5% --- 2.1% -- -3,8% --- 3,347 Km²
Nottingham-Derby ----- 1,756,138 --- 1,669,323 --- 1,556,800 --- 1,529,000 --- 5.2% --- 7.2% --- 1.8% --- 2,951 Km²
Sheffield ------------ 1,660,849 --- 1,622,722 --- 1,534,100 --- 1,557,200 --- 2.3% --- 5.8% -- -1,5% --- 2,054 Km²
Newcastle ------------ 1,649,258 --- 1,617,135 --- 1,580,500 --- 1,625,300 --- 2.0% --- 2.3% -- -2.8% --- 2,766 Km²
Southampton-Portsm. -- 1,473,509 --- 1,408,855 --- 1,321,800 --- 1,258,600 --- 4.6% --- 6.6% --- 5.0% --- 2,880 Km²
Cardiff -------------- 1,430,946 --- 1,390,324 --- 1,314,200 --- 1,308,800 --- 2.9% --- 5.8% --- 0.4% --- 1,960 Km²
Bristol -------------- 1,173,026 --- 1,070,120 ----- 994,000 ----- 956,700 --- 9.6% --- 7.7% --- 3.9% --- 1,327 Km²
Leicester ------------ 1,029,186 ----- 930,311 ----- 845,200 ----- 809,500 -- 10.6% -- 10.1% --- 4.4% --- 1,675 Km²
Belfast ---------------- 942,838 ----- 900,134 ----- 859,200 ----------------- 4.7% --- 4.8% ------------ 2,711 Km²
Edinburgh -------------- 916,310 ----- 836,610 ----- 779,180 ----- 745,330 --- 9.5% --- 7.4% --- 4.5% --- 1,724 Km²
Brighton --------------- 870,345 ----- 826,867 ----- 767,900 ----- 738,900 --- 5.3% --- 7.7% --- 3.9% --- 1,004 Km²
Northampton ------------ 785,247 ----- 693,967 ----- 630,900 ----- 584,000 -- 13.2% -- 10.0% --- 8.0% --- 2,364 Km²
Middlesbrough ---------- 677,187 ----- 663,028 ----- 652,300 ----- 656,200 --- 2.1% --- 1.6% -- -0,6% ----- 794 Km²
Kingston upon Hull ----- 609,229 ----- 590,796 ----- 564,800 ----- 557,700 --- 3.1% --- 4.6% --- 1.3% --- 2,479 Km²
Some highlights:

- British "Golden Age" starting in the mid-1990's, with economic and immigration boom helped the big metro areas growth in the North (Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds) to converge with that of London;

- The aforementioned phenomenon also helped the Rust Belt basketcases (Glasgow, Liverpool, Sheffield, Newcastle) to leave negative growth behind;

- There is an arch of cities between London and "the North" (Bristol, Leicester, Northampton and other smaller ones) to grow really fast for the past 20 years.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #671  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2022, 2:44 PM
nito nito is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 2,855
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrnyc View Post
otoh the auto/bus traffic in and out would dwarf that ridership. its not like there is more commuting, thats just a mode.
There probably are more people making the journey into New York by car/bus/coach compared to London, but I suspect that is mostly down to there being only six tracks under the Hudson (and four of those are PATH). The PABT has 4x the passenger volumes of Victoria Coach Station, and there are more parking spaces in Manhattan than in Central London. Yet trains provide far more capacity and are more efficient at transporting large volumes of people at higher speeds across longer distances, particularly in and through dense urban environments.
__________________
London Transport Thread updated: 2023_07_12 | London Stadium & Arena Thread updated: 2022_03_09
London General Update Thread updated: 2019_04_03 | High Speed 2 updated: 2021_09_24
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #672  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2022, 9:16 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Spain 2021 Census: 47,400,798

Firstly, their estimates are amazing. They were off by only 50,000 compared to the 2020 estimates. And not only for the country, but to the regions as well: Madrid, Barcelona, estimates are spot on.

1960: 30,582,936
1970: 33,956,047 -- +11.0%
1981: 37,682,355 -- +11.0%
1991: 38,872,268 --- +3.2%
2001: 40,847,371 --- +5.1%
2011: 46,815,917 -- +14.6%
2021: 47,400,798 --- +1.2%

Their growth unsurprisingly collapsed after 2008 crisis after their 2000's golden age. Immigration slowed down a lot and to make things worse, births in Spain collapsed. In 2015 they got the first negative natural growth; seven years later, deaths are outnumber births by 3:2.

Things are developing very fast. They're not very far from Italy and immigration will no longer be enough to offset negative natural growth.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #673  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2022, 12:58 AM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Here a lazy definition for Madrid and Barcelona metro areas (the two provinces):

------------------ 2021 ------- 2011 ------- 2001 ------- 1991 ------- 1981 ----------- Growth/decade ----------------- Area
MADRID ----- 6,726,640 --- 6,421,878 --- 5,423,384 --- 4,947,555 --- 4,686,895 --- 4.7% -- 18.4% --- 9.6% --- 5.6% --- 8,028 Km²
BARCELONA - 5,702,262 --- 5,522,566 --- 4,805,927 --- 4,654,407 --- 4,623,204 --- 3.3% -- 14.9% --- 3.3% --- 0.7% --- 7,728 Km²

Madrid and Barcelona have grown by 500k on the decade while Spain as a whole has grown by 600k. As the southern coast areas are still the fastest growing, and metro areas like Valencia and Sevilla are still positive, all the rest of Spain is on negative.

And notice Madrid's growth rate in the 2000's. Dallas and Houston levels.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #674  
Old Posted Jan 1, 2023, 8:56 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Brazilian 2022 Census, preliminary number: 207.8 million people

That’s almost 6 million below official estimates, which was expected, at least by me.

After being the world’s 5th most populated country for almost 30 years following the end of USSR, Brazil is now 7th, surpassed by both Pakistan and Nigeria.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #675  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2023, 1:45 AM
forward looking forward looking is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2021
Posts: 328
Developed countries,

Developed countries depend on immigration for growth in population and economically.
I saw a Japanese businessman on a plane flight reading something pre-flight. As he put down his magazine I thought to ask him, so I spoke up.
"Why has Japan been in the economic doldrums for so long anyway, do you know?"
"We have no immigration like the U.S. has. With immigration comes growth."
I found it difficult to argue with that opinion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.

Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #676  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2023, 4:44 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.

Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.
Brazil, on the other hand, is very predictable precisely due the opposite: both emigration and immigration are relatively small and they cancel each other.

Of course, for states and specially for municipalities, things get more complicated to predict as domestic migration, even though lower than the historical highs (1960's-1980's), still influence growth.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #677  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2023, 9:19 PM
muppet's Avatar
muppet muppet is offline
if I sang out of tune
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: London
Posts: 6,185
Do you think Brazil will start to experience mass immigration, eg from its neighbours, as the economy rises?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #678  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2023, 9:53 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Quote:
Originally Posted by muppet View Post
Do you think Brazil will start to experience mass immigration, eg from its neighbours, as the economy rises?
Mass immigration, I don’t think so, Muppet. If things improve, a big city like SP or dynamic mid-sized cities in South could capture more South Americans, Haitians, Africans.

It won’t be enough to change its demographic destiny. When population start to shrink (2030’s?), domestic migration might accelerate: entire regions abandoned and people flocking to more dynamic places.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #679  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2023, 12:42 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Bringing from a different forum:

Quote:
"In demographic news from Denmark.

Danish women now have a higher birth rate (1,78) than immigrant (and descendants) women (1,75) from non-Western countries. This is a result of growth in Danish women birth rate (+0,06 over the last year) and a significant fall in the latter group birth rate. A few groups like Somalians, Pakistanis, and Syrians still upkeep a high birth rate, but their too are falling, but their higher birth rate will mean they will make up a greater part of non-Western immigrants and descendants in the future, but that the pie as a whole shrinks.

This shift do not come as a surprise to me, as we have seen indication of it for years and we will likely see similar shift in other European countries for a very simple reason; these groups are more urban than the population as a whole.
"
To me it's not a surprise either. Even the "Eurabia" bigots seemed to have toned down. I remember that they argued with a very straight face Muslim women in France had 8 children/average.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #680  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2023, 8:27 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
More from Brazilian 2022 Census (preview). Urban areas:

---------------------------- 2022 -------- 2010 -------- 2000
Code:
BRASIL ---------------- 207.750.291 - 190.747.731 - 169.799.170 --- 8,91% -- 12,34%
São Paulo -------------- 21.769.256 -- 19.520.758 -- 17.735.391 -- 11,52% -- 10,07%
Rio de Janeiro --------- 12.071.209 -- 11.769.605 -- 10.802.930 --- 2,56% --- 8,95%
Belo Horizonte ---------- 4.845.341 --- 4.563.078 --- 4.086.680 --- 6,19% -- 11,66%
Brasília ---------------- 3.708.201 --- 3.187.984 --- 2.507.587 -- 16,32% -- 27,13%
Porto Alegre ------------ 3.672.397 --- 3.616.039 --- 3.409.968 --- 1,56% --- 6,04%
Recife ------------------ 3.549.490 --- 3.513.174 --- 3.198.113 --- 1,03% --- 9,85%
Fortaleza --------------- 3.541.226 --- 3.291.204 --- 2.803.413 --- 7,60% -- 17,40%
Curitiba ---------------- 3.475.297 --- 2.993.678 --- 2.608.846 -- 16,09% -- 14,75%
Salvador ---------------- 3.361.923 --- 3.266.562 --- 2.857.776 --- 2,92% -- 14,30%
Campinas ---------------- 2.599.406 --- 2.257.504 --- 1.932.238 -- 15,15% -- 18,09%
Goiânia ----------------- 2.287.443 --- 1.980.649 --- 1.582.680 -- 15,49% -- 25,15%
Belém ------------------- 2.063.123 --- 2.025.276 --- 1.784.158 --- 1,87% -- 13,51%
Manaus ------------------ 2.054.731 --- 1.802.014 --- 1.405.835 -- 14,02% -- 28,18%
Vitória ----------------- 1.818.375 --- 1.565.393 --- 1.337.187 -- 16,16% -- 17,07%
Santos ------------------ 1.702.245 --- 1.556.718 --- 1.395.330 --- 9,35% -- 11,57%
São Luís ---------------- 1.508.450 --- 1.309.330 --- 1.070.688 -- 15,21% -- 22,29%
Natal ------------------- 1.263.314 --- 1.187.899 ----- 980.897 --- 6,35% -- 21,10%
Florianópolis ----------- 1.211.895 ----- 851.955 ----- 687.791 -- 42,25% -- 23,87%
João Pessoa ------------- 1.201.683 --- 1.013.215 ----- 853.926 -- 18,60% -- 18,65%
Maceió ------------------ 1.168.590 --- 1.088.456 ----- 931.563 --- 7,36% -- 16,84%
São José dos Campos ----- 1.073.540 ----- 925.887 ----- 806.734 -- 15,95% -- 14,77%
Teresina ---------------- 1.043.567 ----- 969.690 ----- 845.052 --- 7,62% -- 14,75%
Cuiabá ------------------ 1.009.955 ----- 803.694 ----- 698.644 -- 25,66% -- 15,04%
Campo Grande -------------- 942.140 ----- 786.797 ----- 663.621 -- 19,74% -- 18,56%
Sorocaba ------------------ 925.539 ----- 739.572 ----- 624.461 -- 25,15% -- 18,43%
Aracaju ------------------- 839.328 ----- 756.952 ----- 611.020 -- 10,88% -- 23,88%
Jundiaí ------------------- 832.737 ----- 633.273 ----- 529.990 -- 26,73% -- 19,49%
Londrina ------------------ 750.262 ----- 651.632 ----- 577.404 -- 15,14% -- 12,86%
Ribeirão Preto ------------ 748.067 ----- 642.343 ----- 535.652 -- 16,46% -- 19,92%
Itajaí-B. Camboriú -------- 739.237 ----- 478.984 ----- 345.830 -- 54,33% -- 38,50%
Uberlândia ---------------- 725.536 ----- 604.013 ----- 501.214 -- 20,12% -- 20,51%
Joinville ----------------- 663.441 ----- 540.098 ----- 453.249 -- 22,84% -- 19,16%
Feira de Santana ---------- 652.592 ----- 556.642 ----- 480.949 -- 17,24% -- 15,74%
Petrolina-Juazeiro -------- 632.551 ----- 491.927 ----- 393.105 -- 28,59% -- 25,14%
Maringá ------------------- 630.202 ----- 475.860 ----- 390.839 -- 32,43% -- 21,75%
São José do Rio Preto ----- 599.775 ----- 502.494 ----- 439.186 -- 19,36% -- 14,41%
Macapá -------------------- 593.443 ----- 499.466 ----- 363.747 -- 18,82% -- 37,31%
Caxias do Sul ------------- 577.947 ----- 499.199 ----- 415.727 -- 15,77% -- 20,08%
Juiz de Fora -------------- 557.777 ----- 516.247 ----- 456.796 --- 8,04% -- 13,01%
Taubaté-Pindamonhangaba --- 528.333 ----- 466.665 ----- 405.014 -- 13,21% -- 15,22%
Blumenau ------------------ 507.762 ----- 421.846 ----- 348.416 -- 20,37% -- 21,08%
Growth collapsed in the majority of Brazilian metro areas. São Paulo, on the other hand, hung on and it's about to reach the 22 million mark. Metro areas around it such as Campinas, Santos, São José dos Campos, Sorocaba and Jundiaí are also growing fast and São Paulo Macrometropolitan Area reached 35 million inh.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 9:01 AM.

     
SkyscraperPage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.