DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

The presence of a street wall and green landscaping are not mutually exclusive. It's easy to have both. In fact, since the city requires all new development to have trees and other landscaping along the sidewalk, downtown is getting significantly greener due to new development than it was when those site were empty lots. Of course, property owners have to maintain the landscaping, replace trees if they die, etc.


I'm glad you like the roundups!

For a new incoming Mayor, I'd think a downtown specific and neighborhood equity analysis for greenery (already on the City's books) would be a hell of a campaign focus - City beautiful 2.0 - if combined with right sized police enforcement/presence. While Denver has mainly recovered new buildings from the DURA demo decades, the significant treescapes we lost during that era really haven't recovered. Even Speer Blvd is in disrepair compared to historic norms. As we rethink bike lanes, one ways, and sidewalks downtown, a billion dollar bond would go a hell of along way to really beautify the core and long neglected neighborhoods. To me, greenery is a difference maker between competitor cities like Austin, Seattle, Tampa, etc and Denver and it's something that could really attract more residential development in the core and help revive everything east of Lodo.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

...Carmel who's CEO grew up in Denver has only become more prominent in recent years...

Carmel was also one of the most prominent/active multifamily developers in CO throughout the 80's/90's/00's before selling the whole enchilada after the great recession - while I'm sure it worked for them, it was perhaps the most ill-timed portfolio sale in a generation. Had they waited just a year or two, they would have seen a hugely significant increase in sale prices. I believe they still hold significant amounts of buildable land in CO and if they pressed the gas pedal, could probably build significant multifamily for several years before running out of land. Your guess is as good as mine as to why they haven't/aren't.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

...This is too funny; this has a very familiar ring to it.


Pick you data and your outcome I guess, lol.

Note: There is an 8 month gap on above articles which hardly seems like enough for much to change.

You should add an article about the City of St Paul passing rent control and capping rent increases, which legitimately put an instant stop to new development in the city. This undoubtedly complicates any analysis of the Twin Cities housing situation.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Carmel was also one of the most prominent/active multifamily developers in CO throughout the 80's/90's/00's before selling the whole enchilada after the great recession - while I'm sure it worked for them, it was perhaps the most ill-timed portfolio sale in a generation. Had they waited just a year or two, they would have seen a hugely significant increase in sale prices. I believe they still hold significant amounts of buildable land in CO and if they pressed the gas pedal, could probably build significant multifamily for several years before running out of land. Your guess is as good as mine as to why they haven't/aren't.

I was a renter in a Carmel community when they dumped the whole portfolio. It's not just that they sold, but also how they sold, which appears to have been in fire sale fashion. Everything they dumped went down-market in a big way. Not unusual, but this was so precipitous, it makes me think they got dimes on the dollar relative to what they should have held out for.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by laniroj

For a new incoming Mayor, I'd think a downtown specific and neighborhood equity analysis for greenery (already on the City's books) would be a hell of a campaign focus - City beautiful 2.0 - if combined with right sized police enforcement/presence. While Denver has mainly recovered new buildings from the DURA demo decades, the significant treescapes we lost during that era really haven't recovered. Even Speer Blvd is in disrepair compared to historic norms. As we rethink bike lanes, one ways, and sidewalks downtown, a billion dollar bond would go a hell of along way to really beautify the core and long neglected neighborhoods. To me, greenery is a difference maker between competitor cities like Austin, Seattle, Tampa, etc and Denver and it's something that could really attract more residential development in the core and help revive everything east of Lodo.

Edit: Nevermind.

[EngiNerd]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Part Four

Wait... what happened to Part Three?
Not sure; I looked around, couldn't find it.

I want to focus on the period between 2010 and 2015 - (so try to focus like a razor beam on this period)

I clearly remember BG918 (hope things are well in Tulsa) being one of our 'caution flags' thinking Denver may be getting overbuilt, that a Recession may not be far off.

The Apartment Experts

Ah yes, these guys were (often) sure Denver would soon be waay overbuilt and vacancies would go through the roof. Problem was, they relied too much on historical data of new units, vacancy etc. To be fair population (and other) data lags by a year or so.

The Tech World View

In the 1st half of the 2010's it was Austin that sucked all the tech oxygen out of the air. More mundane tech companies looking to escape CA often ended up in Dallas due to generous incentives.

Yes, Colorado/Denver has always had a solid tech presence but those companies mostly landed in the suburbs. It was only in the 2nd half of the last decade that tech discovered downtown Denver.

The World of Developers

Take look at this list. While it doesn't change a lot from year to year I did intentionally picked out 2015.

The Lennar Multifamily Story (abbreviated)

Like many new-to-Denver builders LMC started in the suburbs. They built in Green Valley Ranch before they came downtown. They started with a modest project along Blake Street before building a nice-sized project in Uptown, then moving into Arapahoe Square before falling in love with the Golden Triangle. While LMC may be a star in Denver, it's also a typical 'cautious' approach to building in Denver.

Most of the developers on the Top 50 list have at least some presence in Denver. Some have been busy builders like Holland Partners, Mill Creek, Trammel Crow Res and more recently Greystar. Others have dabbled.

Carmel who's CEO grew up in Denver has only become more prominent in recent years. AMLI who's long had a local office only revved up more recently in the City although they've built in Denver over a long time.

The development of Brighton Blvd corridor was real slow early on; now it's On Fire. It just takes time to build momentum typically.

It is pretty impressive the number of National developers that have built in Denver. Still, it all just does take time.

Footnote: Just a reminder that all the population data being discussed is STATE data although presumably Denver metro comprises a majority of it.

The new fun thing that I hadn't seen before is now entire single family subdivisions are being built out as rentals. I can't decide how I really feel about it, but it feels like a possible shift in the future of homeownership and the "American Dream".

This is one of the major players in that field, they have a couple subdivisions here in CO, and many more in other metros.
https://communities.ah4r.com/

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by EngiNerd

The new fun thing that I hadn't seen before is now entire single family subdivisions are being built out as rentals. I can't decide how I really feel about it, but it feels like a possible shift in the future of homeownership and the "American Dream".

This is one of the major players in that field, they have a couple subdivisions here in CO, and many more in other metros.
https://communities.ah4r.com/

I see this as just one more opportunity to meet housing needs. It sort of meets the missing middle demand. I see where Monfort Companies’ is building townhomes, not SFH's, in Greeley but it similarly meets this market need.

One thing we learned from the COVID-2020 period is all of a sudden people decided they wanted their own home, with a backyard etc. The single family home market is the segment that's most under-supplied but lots of people are happy to rent as apposed to buying. If you're a family with young kids having that green space for kids to play and get their exercise is a godsend.

Those American Homes communities are nice! 1,800 - ~2,000 Sq Ft and nice amenities.

Oddly, I happen to recall how I'll occasionally read about a house fire where the Red Cross will show up to help the 14 people that were displaced. In some cultures it's not unusual for different families to share the same home. I think some people volunteer to host 'new arrivals' as they transition into finding jobs and eventually their own place to live. While it may seem strange to 'us' it does show how people find a way to survive and many times thrive.

There's the Sam Hill's who love living close to downtown. But among the over 2,850,000 people who live in the metro area most of them have no desire (or need) to live near downtown. The more housing available the better and rent-to-own is just more opportunity for people to live somewhere.

[TakeFive]

Does anybody know anybody who lives in Central Park?

https://www.cpr.org/2022/07/29/rtd-f...e-august-tips/

And while RTD’s own history suggests that free transit won’t be a cure-all ... backers of the initiative hope free fares will attract new riders like David Bledsoe of Denver’s Central Park neighborhood. He recently started a new job that’s a 45-minute drive away in the south metro and plans on taking the R Line to the office next week.

“The time frame, obviously, is probably not going to be less,” he said of the train ride. “But if it’s enough of a benefit to me I might consider doing that on a more regular basis — even past the free-fare [month].”

---------------------------------------

I recall that timing

Originally Posted by laniroj

Carmel was also one of the most prominent/active multifamily developers in CO throughout the 80's/90's/00's before selling the whole enchilada after the great recession - while I'm sure it worked for them, it was perhaps the most ill-timed portfolio sale in a generation. Had they waited just a year or two, they would have seen a hugely significant increase in sale prices. I believe they still hold significant amounts of buildable land in CO and if they pressed the gas pedal, could probably build significant multifamily for several years before running out of land. Your guess is as good as mine as to why they haven't/aren't.

But when Papa dies then all the kids want their share of the inheritance.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Does anybody know anybody who lives in Central Park?

https://www.cpr.org/2022/07/29/rtd-f...e-august-tips/


---------------------------------------

I recall that timing


But when Papa dies then all the kids want their share of the inheritance.

I live in Central Park. I've taken the R line to work in the past (down to Lone Tree) and it's slow. But free would be an incentive since it would save me money. However, I'm on perm. WFH now.

I like to take the A line to downtown and DIA, but am now hesitant considering the CP Station park and ride is a common place to have your Cat. converter or entire vehicle stolen. It's probably a 25 min. walk from my house to the train, so now it's to the point where Uber/Lyft is the best option to get downtown. Until they can make the parking lot safe, I doubt any incentive would get me back on the train, unfortunately.

[jbssfelix]

Originally Posted by COtoOC

I live in Central Park. I've taken the R line to work in the past (down to Lone Tree) and it's slow. But free would be an incentive since it would save me money. However, I'm on perm. WFH now.

I like to take the A line to downtown and DIA, but am now hesitant considering the CP Station park and ride is a common place to have your Cat. converter or entire vehicle stolen. It's probably a 25 min. walk from my house to the train, so now it's to the point where Uber/Lyft is the best option to get downtown. Until they can make the parking lot safe, I doubt any incentive would get me back on the train, unfortunately.

Also Central Park, and used to work in the DTC. Considered the R, but between the transfer and overall commute time, I chose to go with mental anguish sitting in traffic on 225 instead. Agreed that if it were free, I would reconsider.

My last job was downtown, and I took the A Line, which I'll admit was probably my most enjoyable work commute ever outside of working from home (my current state).

[bulldurhamer]

Originally Posted by COtoOC

I live in Central Park. I've taken the R line to work in the past (down to Lone Tree) and it's slow. But free would be an incentive since it would save me money. However, I'm on perm. WFH now.

I like to take the A line to downtown and DIA, but am now hesitant considering the CP Station park and ride is a common place to have your Cat. converter or entire vehicle stolen. It's probably a 25 min. walk from my house to the train, so now it's to the point where Uber/Lyft is the best option to get downtown. Until they can make the parking lot safe, I doubt any incentive would get me back on the train, unfortunately.

same shit i've been saying for years.
these trains are a debacle of the highest proportion. 1990s thinking.
but keep begging for more worthless trains. keep it up.

in the end, taking a car is still going to be a more attractive option for most.

but the roads are so busy! welp, except apparently they aren't so busy that people still avoid that unreliable money pit called the train.

i have an idea, let's build something that's so expensive that we'll never come close to paying for it. keep in mind, this train is set in place. as it stands now, virtually nobody in denver benefits from the train and since the stupid design is locked in, we're stuck. if you don't want to go through union station to get whereever your'e going, too bad. of all of the things about this train system, having union station being almost the only transfer point is nuts.

so here we are with our immovable train lines that cost 1000 billionity dollars that basically serves nobody in denver. i mean holy shit, what a disaster.

let's go back in time and take that money, build great bus lanes where the bus routes can actually be altered, affordable housing, sidewalks, parks, homeless shelters, and even dedicated bike roads. then we could take the leftovers and all retire.

but no, we have a train that that seems to exist so surbubanites can ride into the city for sports and concerts. sweet.

how's that cbd business class ridership working out these days? you mean it isn't great? but we spent a trillion dollars so conner could ride the train in from littleton! you mean he's working from home now?

[bulldurhamer]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Does anybody know anybody who lives in Central Park?

https://www.cpr.org/2022/07/29/rtd-f...e-august-tips/


---------------------------------------

I recall that timing


But when Papa dies then all the kids want their share of the inheritance.

lol, the trains are so shitty that they can't even get people to ride for FREE!

at what point to the urban planners who pushed this nonsense and still do apologize and realize their textbooks from 1996 are outdated?


https://www.dailycamera.com/2022/03/...ng-the-agency/

these guys want to raise taxes even more so we can throw even more money down the pit.


the greatest argument the author makes for doing this is greenhouse emissions. she seems to be stuck in 1996 as well. do the train fanboys just pretend electric cars don't exist now? at some point i'm gonna need more than "cars are bad" as a reason for even more investment in today's equivalent to the typewriter.

future generations will be amazed how we once broke free from the expense and shackles of train lines only to break ourselves because it seemed like the thing to do 30 years ago - based on not much more than a whim. - but they tell you that you aren't progressive if you aren't a train person...progressive shaming.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

at some point i'm gonna need more than "cars are bad" as a reason for even more investment in today's equivalent to the typewriter.

Unfortunately this thinking is now engrained at the very highest levels - state and federal. Anti-car "urbanists" (you know, urban, like Boulder) long ago won the ideological battle.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

same shit i've been saying for years.
these trains are a debacle of the highest proportion. 1990s thinking.
but keep begging for more worthless trains. keep it up.

in the end, taking a car is still going to be a more attractive option for most.

but the roads are so busy! welp, except apparently they aren't so busy that people still avoid that unreliable money pit called the train.

i have an idea, let's build something that's so expensive that we'll never come close to paying for it. keep in mind, this train is set in place. as it stands now, virtually nobody in denver benefits from the train and since the stupid design is locked in, we're stuck. if you don't want to go through union station to get whereever your'e going, too bad. of all of the things about this train system, having union station being almost the only transfer point is nuts.

so here we are with our immovable train lines that cost 1000 billionity dollars that basically serves nobody in denver. i mean holy shit, what a disaster.

let's go back in time and take that money, build great bus lanes where the bus routes can actually be altered, affordable housing, sidewalks, parks, homeless shelters, and even dedicated bike roads. then we could take the leftovers and all retire.

but no, we have a train that that seems to exist so surbubanites can ride into the city for sports and concerts. sweet.

how's that cbd business class ridership working out these days? you mean it isn't great? but we spent a trillion dollars so conner could ride the train in from littleton! you mean he's working from home now?

Yeah, I think the trains work for certain people, depending on where they live. I mean, the A line is perfect for me to get downtown or to the airport. But the R line.... don't get me started. I took it from the very north end down to Lincoln, and could easily walk from the station into my office. It's a failure through Aurora though... way too slow. Why it creeps around the Aurora mall is a big part of the failure. And the station over Colfax that is basically not walkable to anything. In heavy traffic, I could drive to work in 50 min. to an hour, door to door. Taking the train was an hour 15. And since I drive a hybrid, it cost me less than a gallon of gas round-trip driving, but the train was what... $9? So the only incentive for me was the convenience of not driving, but no time or money savings? I typically only used it when it snowed because then it saved me time, and risking wrecking my car.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Is anybody aware of a car-oriented sprawling city that was able to retrofit a viable public transit system with high ridership? I love trains and want to see them thrive in Denver but it seems to be a difficult task to connect a metro area that was built for the car. That's why I'm more interested in improving transit and other multimodal options in the city, rather than the suburbs. Denver's streets were largely designed around a streetcar network IIRC

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

...but no, we have a train that that seems to exist so surbubanites can ride into the city for sports and concerts. sweet...

Currently yes, you're spot on, but you have to remember this is an investment for a century. As Denver matures, more dense development will occur in those suburban locations at nodes. We're still probably 20-30 years away from that kind of cycle system wide but we have pockets of it already in places like DTC, Lone Tree and even Aurora to a lesser extent. What we should be doing now is authorizing bonds for RTD to purchase land for those future lines and transfer centers (Aurora/Colfax, Central Park, Leetsdale corridor, etc). Folks want everything perfect right now, it doesn't work that way! In time, our system will be fine. It may need a couple bailouts along the way, but it's a huge system (way too big for us currently) that can grow and become much better with further investment and reallocation in the urban bus network. I would vote for a Denver specific tax to augment RTD (because splitting off entirely is not economically attractive for Denver now, though that may change in the future).

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by laniroj

As Denver matures, more dense development will occur in those suburban locations at nodes. .

Bullshit. Never, ever, ever enough to justify the investment or move the needle on overall development patterns. Because, well, this:

https://www.denverpost.com/2017/06/0...plan-defeated/

[TakeFive]

We can agree to disagree

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

lol, the trains are so shitty that they can't even get people to ride for FREE!

at what point to the urban planners who pushed this nonsense and still do apologize and realize their textbooks from 1996 are outdated?

Your 1st comment above sounds like a right wing ie Independence Institute argument. The idea is to hate trains to save the investment $'s. They couldn't care less about buses except they're cheaper. They'd rather spend the $'s on better roads TBH.

At the time rail was planned and executed most downtown workers commuted from the suburbs. Fortunately, the timing was good in the sense that rail or FasTracks was built for a song; the bones are now done.

RE: the Boulder rant; I have no idea who Megan Schrader is but she offers a very 'urbanist' POV with a heavy Boulder bias. Afaik, the four-tenths FasTracks tax was to pay for the Capital costs but not the operating costs for the rail system.

BTW, the most recent RTD data from 4th quarter of 2021 indicates that the rail system carried 55% of transit ridership which was up from 45% pre-pandemic. So it seems to be more than holding its own.

It shouldn't be viewed as a zero sum game. Buses have as many issues if not more than rail transit.

[TakeFive]

That would be an Oxymoron

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Is anybody aware of a car-oriented sprawling city that was able to retrofit a viable public transit system with high ridership? I love trains and want to see them thrive in Denver but it seems to be a difficult task to connect a metro area that was built for the car. That's why I'm more interested in improving transit and other multimodal options in the city, rather than the suburbs. Denver's streets were largely designed around a streetcar network IIRC

Not only was the population dispersed but as we know "retail follows rooftops." So did Office space. But in recent years office space has tended to cluster.

Any streetcar network is totally dated and irrelevant. But the growth in downtown density is not.

Still, there is value in transit but it's also important to recognize that it can only serve those who can take advantage of it - if they're willing. The notion of adding frequency as a magical fix is a mirage. It may make great sense along Colfax or along other BRT-type routes like Federal Blvd but in a lot of cases RTD could save money by offering rideshare vouchers as apposed to a handful of extra riders along many routes.

I've already endorsed a plan to offer frequent 'shuttle' or circulator service in the denser urban neighborhoods.

[BrIced_Tea]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Is anybody aware of a car-oriented sprawling city that was able to retrofit a viable public transit system with high ridership? I love trains and want to see them thrive in Denver but it seems to be a difficult task to connect a metro area that was built for the car. That's why I'm more interested in improving transit and other multimodal options in the city, rather than the suburbs. Denver's streets were largely designed around a streetcar network IIRC

Arlington Virginia is a pretty good example. Used to be very suburban until the DC Metro was built through town.