DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[tommyboy733]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

With respect to Denver, there's plenty of entry-level homes and neighborhoods.

If you want to live on the East side there's Virginia Village homes starting ~ $425K and up; University Hills homes start ~ $475K. On the West side Ruby Hill homes start ~ $400K and Harvey Park homes start ~ $425K; Athmar Park homes start ~ $400K. Most of these neighborhoods were built in the 1950's as Denver developed outward. There's other comparable neighborhoods.

How is $425 to $475 "entry level"? I think entry level would be $200 to $300.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by tommyboy733

How is $425 to $475 "entry level"? I think entry level would be $200 to $300.

*Should* be $200-300k but the reality in Denver is that $400-500k homes are entry-level.

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

With respect to Denver, there's plenty of entry-level homes and neighborhoods.

If you want to live on the East side there's Virginia Village homes starting ~ $425K and up; University Hills homes start ~ $475K. On the West side Ruby Hill homes start ~ $400K and Harvey Park homes start ~ $425K; Athmar Park homes start ~ $400K. Most of these neighborhoods were built in the 1950's as Denver developed outward. There's other comparable neighborhoods.
.

Wow. I appreciate your enthusiasm for Denver, but boy are you out of touch if you think homes in the 400s are "affordable" for working class and aspiring middle class folks. Sorry, things are not okay with this market.

To latch on to Dirt's post, we need to let the middle class bid against the wealthy on subdividing those 500k single family home scrapes by allowing 4 or 6-plexes everywhere. I've got my eye on Tacoma, which is proposing simplified zoning where all the residential parts of the city are either zoned low intensity (townhomes, fourplexes, ADUs) or mid intensity (apartment blocks). It's in the early stage, but it sounds like the best zoning reform proposal I've heard from an American city yet. How come we're not hearing anything like this in Colorado yet? Allow missing middle by right.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

https://denverite.com/2021/03/18/den...no-as-planned/

Denver’s World Trade Center will move to Globeville, not RiNo as planned

[BG918]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

https://denverite.com/2021/03/18/den...no-as-planned/

Denver’s World Trade Center will move to Globeville, not RiNo as planned

41st & Fox is the new hot spot. Lots of positive changes coming to "Fox Island" but it's still really disconnected from the adjoining neighborhoods. Like 38th & Blake it's only one stop from Union Station so it makes sense that it's seeing increased density.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Yeah seems like 41st and Fox is blowing up. Hopefully something happens at that 38th and Blake site because that is a great location

[TakeFive]

I totally get it; However

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

Wow. I appreciate your enthusiasm for Denver, but boy are you out of touch if you think homes in the 400s are "affordable" for working class and aspiring middle class folks. Sorry, things are not okay with this market.

I was pointing out where entry level homes were built. Obviously a lot has happened since the 1950's and 1960's.

Originally Posted by BG918

*Should* be $200-300k but the reality in Denver is that $400-500k homes are entry-level.

If Denver's entry level homes were NOT affordable then they wouldn't sell and the prices would have to come down. That's how markets work; certainly I have no control over what buyers in Denver deem affordable.

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

To latch on to Dirt's post, we need to let the middle class bid against the wealthy on subdividing those 500k single family home scrapes by allowing 4 or 6-plexes everywhere.

I've got actually a couple of posts coming (next week?) but to clarify are you talking about creating rentals (other than townhomes)?

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

https://denverite.com/2021/03/18/den...no-as-planned/

Denver’s World Trade Center will move to Globeville, not RiNo as planned

I feel like World Trade Center is the new Buzz Geller. With all the false starts at 41st and Fox and WTC the new ‘anchor’, anyone thinks this is actually going to happen? Developers seem to be Indianapolis based with no track record of bringing anything to market (probably why they felt so comfortable partnering with WTC!)

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Yeah I will definitely have to see WTC before I believe WTC

[The Dirt]

Just move it out to a warehouse near the airport as they clearly have no interest in conveying any sense of Denver being a world class city. At least, that way, visitors don't have to be subjected to actually seeing Denver.

[The Dirt]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I totally get it; However
If Denver's entry level homes were NOT affordable then they wouldn't sell and the prices would have to come down. That's how markets work; certainly I have no control over what buyers in Denver deem affordable.

I think you're missing a crucial part of the supply and demand lesson from Econ 101.


https://medium.com/fresheconomicthin...s-c40f45bb044d

You're assuming equilibrium and elastic supply. Instead, what we're getting is artificially constrained supply due to restrictive zoning and land use laws. Supply is down, but demand still exists, pushing prices up. A huge portion of the market is priced out, which is why the average age of first time home buyers is now 47 (pre pandemic):


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ome-2019-12-05

[twister244]

With respect to the WTC, I have zero faith in that project getting off the ground. Didn't they have some special funding from Goldman Sachs because of being in an opportunity zone at 38th/Blake? Seems like the project is being mis-managed with no solid funding. I also have zero faith in the Amacon development getting off the ground. Both are "Buzz" projects at as far as I'm concerned.

With respect to the market here, it's stupid at this point. A year ago I had thought about maybe saving up for a down payment on a townhome, but forget it now. Denver is nice, but it's not $600k nice to me. It's part of the reason I am going to work remote long term for a while once I get a renter for my condo. I may come back to Denver at some point (depending on life), but for now, I would rather go travel and see the world a bit instead of trying to scrape money together to be part of a "hot" housing market.

[The Dirt]

Same. It's gotten to the point where I can pay a little more and I get to live in a world class city, blocks from the beach. My partner and I both work from home and we don't need a lot of space. A 550K condo in Long Beach is way more desirable than a 450K condo in Denver.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

https://medium.com/fresheconomicthin...s-c40f45bb044d

You're assuming equilibrium and elastic supply. Instead, what we're getting is artificially constrained supply due to restrictive zoning and land use laws. Supply is down, but demand still exists, pushing prices up. A huge portion of the market is priced out, which is why the average age of first time home buyers is now 47 (pre pandemic):

Unfortunately, this also make a good argument for NIMBYism, because conceivably a shift in the supply curve could result in equally precipitous drops in prices. (If we assume the elasticity is accurately portrayed.) Current owners don't love that.

Hence, YIMBY.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I think it's a perfectly fine restriction under the spending clause. How is it any more intrusive than telling states their legal drinking age has to be 21, or that their maximum speed limit has to be 55 mph? States' recourse when they don't like a condition is not to take the money. On its face, it's not unconstitutional.

Hmmmm, since I'm a still budding wannabe great legal mind........ I'm gonna ride my hunch.

The High Stakes prize for the winner shall be a bag of those 'hand-crafted' Empanadas.

That's funny

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

I feel like World Trade Center is the new Buzz Geller. With all the false starts at 41st and Fox and WTC the new ‘anchor’, anyone thinks this is actually going to happen? Developers seem to be Indianapolis based with no track record of bringing anything to market (probably why they felt so comfortable partnering with WTC!)

I see there are hoops they still need to jump through successfully. I recall the original publicity when they purchased this land. IIRC their background has been more the the industrial side. They're not the biggest even though it's sort of a JV arrangement with a Mexican company. I'd have no idea where their construction funding will come from.

The fact that some 'adaptive reuse' is involved presumably makes that piece easier.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

I think you're missing a crucial part of the supply and demand lesson from Econ 101.

This is NOT Econ 101: π = Ṗ + rH −Ṗ + ωṖ + rL +ci

This guys a PHD. You want to guess how many geeky economists get rich from investing be it stocks or whatever?

Btw, where/how did you find this? It clearly is an Urbanist-friendly look at life.

In any case much of this is easy enough to follow. In one section he talks about Boulder - at least the essence of Boulder: Constrained boundaries, anti density etc. Denver is NOT Boulder. Denver runs into Aurora, Lakewood etc etc. Most homeowners are interested less in city boundaries than they are in neighborhoods and school districts and of course finding a home within their budget.

Beyond the basics of Econ 101, I much prefer plain language and common sense

Let's go back to last year. First the Pandemic froze the RE market; then the floodgate of buyers opened up. These buyers wanted Single Family Homes. They weren't looking for rentals; they weren't looking for duplexes, triplexes or fourplexes. They wanted a SFH to purchase.

If a buyer wanted to live within a 7-mile radius of downtown or maybe east of Broadway to Monaco Blvd (for whatever reasons) then there's a specific and constrained supply of SFH's to consider. It they would be just as happy in Aurora, Westminster etc then that's a much larger inventory of homes to consider (and meet your budget).

I respect those that say housing prices are too high
In fact I labored to explain why in Phoenix there's a much larger pool of choices with a much larger spectrum of prices. Other's are pointing to different cities and markets.

At one point Cameron Murray talks about lowering 'input' costs like Impact Fees etc. Easy for him to solve one problem by creating three new problems; a PHD does not live in the real world; his is purely theoretical.

[TakeFive]

Here's a teaser post for next week

From Tacoma to Charlotte; from sea to shining sea.

Debate heats up on 2040 plan intended to guide 20 years of city's growth
Mar 4, 2021 By Ashley Fahey – Real Estate Editor, Charlotte Business Journal

A draft version of the 2040 plan, a 320-page document, was released in October and lays out goals and recommendations around growth and development, in accordance with city priorities, over the next two decades. But council members, neighborhood groups and trade organizations have varied — and strong — opinions about the plan.

Let me guess where they're going...

Specific attention has been called to a plan goal calling for more housing diversity across the city. One of the initiatives to achieving that goal would allow duplexes and triplexes — and quads, in certain circumstances — to be developed on all single-family residential lots across Charlotte.

What's the hottest topic?

The hottest topic in the 2040 plan is a step to eliminate exclusively single-family zoning across the city.

The plan identifies housing diversity as a way to bolster what's described as missing-middle housing stock. ... Allowing duplexes and triplexes on single-family lots would result in development of more moderate-income housing, city planners say.

Quick Point: Eliminating single family homes for the benefit of more housing variety may be a good thing in one sense but it aggravates the supply imbalance of single family homes which puts even more upward pressure on the prices of detached homes - if this is what you're complaining about.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

This is NOT Econ 101: π = Ṗ + rH −Ṗ + ωṖ + rL +ci

This guys a PHD. You want to guess how many geeky economists get rich from investing be it stocks or whatever?

Btw, where/how did you find this? It clearly is an Urbanist-friendly look at life.

In any case much of this is easy enough to follow. In one section he talks about Boulder - at least the essence of Boulder: Constrained boundaries, anti density etc. Denver is NOT Boulder. Denver runs into Aurora, Lakewood etc etc. Most homeowners are interested less in city boundaries than they are in neighborhoods and school districts and of course finding a home within their budget.

Beyond the basics of Econ 101, I much prefer plain language and common sense

Let's go back to last year. First the Pandemic froze the RE market; then the floodgate of buyers opened up. These buyers wanted Single Family Homes. They weren't looking for rentals; they weren't looking for duplexes, triplexes or fourplexes. They wanted a SFH to purchase.

If a buyer wanted to live within a 7-mile radius of downtown or maybe east of Broadway to Monaco Blvd (for whatever reasons) then there's a specific and constrained supply of SFH's to consider. It they would be just as happy in Aurora, Westminster etc then that's a much larger inventory of homes to consider (and meet your budget).

I respect those that say housing prices are too high
In fact I labored to explain why in Phoenix there's a much larger pool of choices with a much larger spectrum of prices. Other's are pointing to different cities and markets.

At one point Cameron Murray talks about lowering 'input' costs like Impact Fees etc. Easy for him to solve one problem by creating three new problems; a PHD does not live in the real world; his is purely theoretical.

If people in Denver want a SFH, they should probably head to the burbs where there's room to build them there.....

Denver might not be Boulder, but with Lakewood implementing a cap.... and Golden having a cap, that demand then spills over into western Denver (west of Federal). Unfortunately, aside from the Sloan's Lake area (south of 19th, East of the Lake), there's no upzoning to allow more dense residential construction. Again, we have an UNDER SUPPLY OF HOUSING here......

Further, we aren't Phoenix. Phoenix is one big suburb with a small crappy downtown. Denver has a much denser urban core and should support denser development compared to sunbelt sprawlburgs. Again, if you own a SFH in Denver, good for you, enjoy it. Just don't get all pissy when some of us want the option to move into a denser option down the street. If you don't like that, don't live in the city, go to Aurora or Broomfield.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by twister244

Again, if you own a SFH in Denver, good for you, enjoy it. Just don't get all pissy when some of us want the option to move into a denser option down the street. If you don't like that, don't live in the city, go to Aurora or Broomfield.

Nah. Us SFH are the preferred residents of the city. Our way of life is blessed by the City Council and the RNO's who help us in the all important fight to preserve neighborhood character.


*Sarcasm*

[TakeFive]

It must be fun to conflate issues...

Originally Posted by twister244

Again, we have an UNDER SUPPLY OF HOUSING here......

Again; Denver is density friendly and there is no shortage of land to develop.

I recently highlighted:

• Gates/Broadway Station:
• Elyria-Swansea 700-home development
• Loretto Heights Redevelopment
• Sun Valley Ecodistrict & Stadium District
• Old CDOT headquarters redevelopment

rds70 recently reminded us of the Santa Fe Yards
Also yesterday the 41st & Fox Station ie Sunnyside
And still tons of fun to be had in RiNo.

Different Strokes

Originally Posted by twister244

Further, we aren't Phoenix. Phoenix is one big suburb with a small crappy downtown.

Downtown PHX has had a LGBTQ-driven renaissance especially in the surrounding historical neighborhoods. Their downtown also has a Big University Medical & Science and Law School component. Yes it's quite different.

But the best urbanism action is in Tempe; they just started receiving their new streetcars where the streetcar line will intersect with existing light rail in two places.

For the twenty-something crowd you can't beat Old Town Scottsdale. For the High Finance and Upscale crowd you want North Scottsdale Rd.

And if you seek some of the nicest homes anywhere, you want the high desert.

Different strokes.