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  #21  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 12:46 AM
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^ you've lost me.

by "regular people" i mean "middle class people".

as the chicago maps show, chicago has lost its former legions of middle class people as the city gets ever more bifurcated into areas of the very highest incomes and the very lowest incomes.

i sure as shit can't really do anything about that.

but i will lament it a bit.




now if you'll excuse me, i have some clouds to go yell at.
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"Missing middle" housing can be a great middle ground for many middle class families.

Last edited by Steely Dan; Jun 5, 2023 at 12:56 AM.
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  #22  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 12:23 PM
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With a combined salary of, say, $115K, these average Joes/Janes could buy a nice home in Barrington, send their kids to public school there, and save enough money to send their two kids to a good public college/university and have some retirement savings.

That in and of itself is a major achievement and a level of success that, although "blue-collar," is not "average" or "regular" IMO. Under this scenario, the two children *should* on paper have it much better than their parents. That's the climbing.
Barrington is fairly pricey for Chicagoland standards. I don't know if that household income, with kids, would be enough for Barrington, unless you're living very simply. The property taxes in those types of towns are sky high. Those are mostly bigger houses and properties, with lots of upkeep costs.

I think the bigger narrative is that, for whatever reason, cities have a lower share of middle-middle class than in previous generations, and middle-middle class types appear to favor exurban sprawl. There are tons of people whose American dream is apparently a vinyl-sided crapbox on a bare lot in the middle of nowhere.
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  #23  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 2:30 PM
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i just prefer an urbanism in the creamy middle that is neither ghetto shithole nor yuppie shithole.

i just want a good old fashioned regular chicago shithole.

but they are dwindling.
But are they, though? I drive around town a lot and find myself in odd parts of Chicago that I'd never have considered living maybe 10 years ago, that are slowly becoming more - and I hate to use the word "gentrified" - accessible to people who aren't put off by some of the more adjacent hard-scrabble neighborhoods. . .

Chicago is just massive and I'm seeing areas that are near Austin, Garfield Park and West Humboldt Park that are building brand new homes. . . look at Kenwood to the south and more solidly family-type 'hoods like North Lawndale, McKinley Park, West Albany Park or South Shore where these areas are starting to expand their "working class" boundaries into the adjacent "shithole" 'hoods. . .

Every time I look at Google Maps I'm seeing hard delineations between so-called "shitholes" where an overview shows a lot of vacant properties and neighborhoods where there isn't a single vacant property anymore. . . this has been going on for like the last 20 years and although I don't have any hard data to reference, my anecdotal observations driving all around town seems to indicate something's going on. . .

Maybe it's just rich people moving right next to poor people. . . I dunno. . .

. . .
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  #24  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 2:31 PM
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People really want 3-4 bedroom houses. There aren't many true three bedroom houses in most U.S. cities (lots of hot attic bedrooms) and four bedroom houses are almost non-existent within city limits, since they didn't start being built en masse until the 1970s.
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  #25  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 2:41 PM
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I think three-four bedrooms are fairly common in older Detroit suburbs and Detroit proper? There are a ton of non-bungalow neighborhoods, and most of the intact Detroit proper hoods aren't bungalows (the working class housing disappeared, while the big brick homes mostly remain).

But yeah, it's true that it became much more standard in recent years. And most of the older neighborhoods are either yuppie-expensive or considered ghettoish, so not a consideration for Joe Sixpack.
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  #26  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 2:53 PM
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But are they, though?
I was going by the loss of the middle class over the past 50 years as represented by these maps galleyfox posted earlier.

Quote:
Originally Posted by galleyfox View Post



Creamy yellow is better than the stark dark blue/deep orange divide.

But perhaps the maps are based on bad data?
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  #27  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 3:02 PM
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I've heard Chicago described as 1/3 San Francisco, 2/3 Detroit.
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  #28  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 3:08 PM
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I've heard Chicago described as 1/3 San Francisco, 2/3 Detroit.
Or the old "if New York and Detroit had a baby...."
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  #29  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 4:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
I was going by the loss of the middle class over the past 50 years as represented by these maps galleyfox posted earlier.




Creamy yellow is better than the stark dark blue/deep orange divide.

But perhaps the maps are based on bad data?
The last map is from 2017 and probably reflects the after effects of the 2009 crisis more than the current financial/housing situation. I’d be curious to see an update. I think there has been a surge of renovations in the last six years.

Also, the SW side is shown as solidly very low income whereas it seems to me a pretty middle class area (or stable working class, which seemed to be what you were describing) and much different than nearby Englewood shown in the same category. So there’s obviously a lot missing from the way this map is represented.
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  #30  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 4:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
I was going by the loss of the middle class over the past 50 years as represented by these maps galleyfox posted earlier.




Creamy yellow is better than the stark dark blue/deep orange divide.

But perhaps the maps are based on bad data?
The 2017 income estimates are about 6 years old now, so I’m sure some of the red areas are turning light red and light red areas are moving closer to yellow. (Austin, South Shore, ect)

If you consider that many neighborhoods reached peak distress in 2014 because of the financial crisis, it would not be surprising if the situation has significantly improved since 2017.

Especially this year now that the city of Chicago has an unemployment rate of just 3.6%. Compared to the average rate of well over 5% since 1990.

South Shore -CMAP - ACS 2016-2020



South Shore median household income was 53% below the regional average. (Dark red)
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  #31  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 4:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Klippenstein View Post
The last map is from 2017 and probably reflects the after effects of the 2009 crisis more than the current financial/housing situation. I’d be curious to see an update. I think there has been a surge of renovations in the last six years.

Also, the SW side is shown as solidly very low income whereas it seems to me a pretty middle class area (or stable working class, which seemed to be what you were describing) and much different than nearby Englewood shown in the same category. So there’s obviously a lot missing from the way this map is represented.
Adjusted for inflation a lot of the SW side definitely slid into a lower income tier

But I do agree that there should have been another tier for 60% below, which is more an indicator of dysfunctional poverty instead of just working class.

South Lawndale
1970: $48,508
2016-2020: $36,787
Net: -$11,721

Gage Park
1970: $62,623
2016-2020: $42,129
Net: - $20,194

Auburn Gresham:
1970: $60,371
2016-2020: $37,332
Net: -$23,039

Englewood
1970: $40,773
2016-2020: $21,981
Net: -$18,792

https://robparal.com/chicago-data/
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  #32  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 5:36 PM
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^ I agree that more nuance in the map would be good.

But it still wouldn't mask the evaporation of the creamy yellow.

Outside of the usual suspect "cop and firemen hoods" out on the edges, it seems like we'll have to settle for temporary and shifting transitional creamy yellows along the battle lines between dark blue and deep orange.
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  #33  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 6:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
^ I agree that more nuance in the map would be good.

But it still wouldn't mask the evaporation of the creamy yellow.

Outside of the usual suspect "cop and firemen hoods" out on the edges, it seems like we'll have to settle for temporary and shifting transitional creamy yellows along the battle lines between dark blue and deep orange.
Any major change in the pattern would probably come from immigrant communities.

We would expect those families to start climbing the income ladder over generations. So the question is if they follow other groups out to the suburbs or stay in place.

You can see the area around Chinatown moving into middle class, and a lot of that is internal community change. Perhaps the same will happen in Hispanic and other Asian areas. Maybe lakefront black neighborhoods as well, but I can’t tell if those are mostly wealthy or middle-class buyers yet. Seems more similar to the North side pattern right now.
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  #34  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 8:43 PM
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Any major change in the pattern would probably come from immigrant communities.

We would expect those families to start climbing the income ladder over generations. So the question is if they follow other groups out to the suburbs or stay in place.

You can see the area around Chinatown moving into middle class, and a lot of that is internal community change. Perhaps the same will happen in Hispanic and other Asian areas. Maybe lakefront black neighborhoods as well, but I can’t tell if those are mostly wealthy or middle-class buyers yet. Seems more similar to the North side pattern right now.
I see middle class white flight, followed by white working class flight, eventually black middle class flight, then upper middle class, wealthy gentrification on the North Shore. Basically, your typical American legacy city model. Chicago fared a little better than the other Rust Belt cities, but largely due to it's massive scale, more diversified economy, steady stream of immigration from Latin America, etc. Definitely still dealing with the legacy of racialized redlining and deindustrialization though.
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  #35  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 9:26 PM
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then upper middle class, wealthy gentrification on the North Shore.
Just an FYI, within the context of Chicago, "north shore" exclusively refers to the well-to-do suburbs north of the city along the lake, starting in Evanston and going north to Lake Bluff, with an expanded geography these days that also usually includes well-off inland burbs just west of the above like Glenview, Northbrook, and Deerfield.

"North shore" is never used to refer to north lakefront neighborhoods like Streeterville, Old Town, Gold Coast, Lincoln Park, Lakeview, etc., or anywhere else within city limits.



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Basically, your typical American legacy city model.
The main difference being that Chicago has a rather large area of within-city wealth, which is at least better than having pretty much all of the upper/upper-middle class decamp to the burbs.

For as much as I lament the evaporation of the middle class from Chicago over the past half century, if the choice is between HIGHLY bifurcated wealth/poverty in the city and precious little wealth in the city at all, the former situation at least helps prop up the city's tax base.
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"Missing middle" housing can be a great middle ground for many middle class families.

Last edited by Steely Dan; Jun 5, 2023 at 9:41 PM.
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  #36  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 9:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
^ I agree that more nuance in the map would be good.

But it still wouldn't mask the evaporation of the creamy yellow.

Outside of the usual suspect "cop and firemen hoods" out on the edges, it seems like we'll have to settle for temporary and shifting transitional creamy yellows along the battle lines between dark blue and deep orange.
That might be true. . . but in the last 20 years this is what I'm seeing:

a) Slum adjacent go from creamy yellow to rich blue
---I'm looking at all the Near West side all the way up to Logan Square and Albany Park and everything surrounding Uptown and Rogers Park

b) Slum build up vacant properties flipping to desirable
---Looking at Tri-Taylor, East Humboldt Park, Oakland, South Austin

c) Super slum disappears completely and is built up at varying degrees of completion
---Cabrini Green, Stateway Gardens/Federal Homes all other housing projects that have since been demolished. . .

The one thing I'm not seeing is the creamy yellow turning into red. . . at least not on the surface, but clearly the numbers adjusted for inflation say otherwise. . .

That's just my pedestrian view on the built environment as I'm driving (ironically) down the street. . .

. . .
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  #37  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 9:54 PM
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People really want 3-4 bedroom houses. There aren't many true three bedroom houses in most U.S. cities (lots of hot attic bedrooms) and four bedroom houses are almost non-existent within city limits, since they didn't start being built en masse until the 1970s.
This is true, and in the context of urban milieus, 3-4-bedroom townhouses for single families doesn’t yield the best density. A bunch of skyscrapers, which are only allowed over relatively small land masses in all U.S. cities (including New York), with that amount of bedrooms isn’t economical and the square footage for those apartments/condos would be smaller.
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Last edited by Quixote; Jun 5, 2023 at 10:10 PM.
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  #38  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 10:12 PM
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I have a cousin who works for Google. Her husband is an ER doctor. Their combined income is probably $350,000-500,000 and they bought a home in SJ for over $2 million, yet even they are “struggling” in the sense that they bought the home at the height of the market before interest rates increased. The point? While they are essentially in the 1-3%, they are still professionals who need to put in the hours to pay their bills.
I think your salary range is low (ER Docs make about $400K these days...I just looked this up randomly a few days ago), so together I would think they make $550-$700K depending on your cousin's salary...but yes, where they live they are upper middle class at best and hardly comfortable.

To be frank, they should live somewhere else. She can work from almost anywhere I assume (or at least anywhere Google has an office) and healthcare workers are among the most transferable professional class around.

Eventually they'll get there because their housing cost is fixed go forward, but I guarantee you they don't feel like they've made it at all.
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  #39  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 10:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Creamy yellow is better than the stark dark blue/deep orange divide.

But perhaps the maps are based on bad data?
I think the boundaries and perceptions of what it means to be “middle-class” have shifted. Looking strictly through the lens of average individual income provides a distorted picture. Who/if you’re married/partnered with, age, education level, how/where you grew up, types of assets, amount of savings, aspirations, among other factors, all carry significant weight. A person making $65K but has wealthy parents and “connections” is just as high (or even higher up) on the socioeconomic ladder than a married couple each making $125K but who come from more humble backgrounds, IMO.

Anyone who has to do the regular 8/5/50 or hustle as an entrepreneur is part of the working class. The “middle class” is a subset of that, and within that subset is a very wide and diverse spectrum.

I think most people are fine being “middle-class,” but they want to be slightly higher than “average.” That’s why I say that being upper-middle-class is the end game. You can be perceived as “wealthy” while also having the luxury of being able to blend in. Anything beyond that comes with more power, pressure, and/or visibility that can be seen as inhibiting.
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  #40  
Old Posted Jun 6, 2023, 4:49 AM
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^ way too much over-thinking for my simple fly-over sensibilities.


let me break it down for you more simply through the lens that us midwesterners understand the world by: food.

chicago used to mostly be a "burgers & dogs" kinda town back in the day of my grandfathers.

now we got this:




progress?

i guess some see it that way.

but my feelings are pretty fucking mixed.







Quote:
Originally Posted by Quixote View Post
This is true, and in the context of urban milieus, 3-4-bedroom townhouses for single families doesn’t yield the best density.
"the best density"?

who said anything about that?

there is a ridiculously GIGANTIC spectrum of density between the upper west side and fucking Barrrington.

row-house level density (or "flats" level density in chicago terms), produces some of the creamiest urban creamy middles that have ever creamy middled in terms of raising a family in.

i reject 150K ppsm just as readily as i reject 1.5K ppsm.


more is not always more.

and less is not necessarily more either.

mies was wrong.

"the right amount is the right amount"
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"Missing middle" housing can be a great middle ground for many middle class families.

Last edited by Steely Dan; Jun 6, 2023 at 5:26 AM.
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